TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I'm really surprised no one tried to trade for Higgins or Aiyuk in this draft

 

With Arizona armed with so many picks (2 first, early 2nd, five 3rd, two 4ths) after my 2 small trade backs, I considered it.  But with Odunze already in the fold, there were are a lot of other young WR's to add next to him I would think they would just prefer to go after.

 

In fact, I would have traded up again (still having 3 third round picks, and 2 fourths right now) and grabbed someone like Pearsall or Roman Wilson, but your rules don't allow for us to trade a pick that has already been traded.  So only 1 of my remaining thirds could be traded and I thought it would be unrealistic to give away next years 1st or 2nd just to make a trade work here in this deep of a WR draft.  

 

But moving 2 of the 3rds I have this year to go get one would have worked draft comp range to go get one, so I would have 100% pulled the trigger to nab another WR mid round 2.  

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

With the 64th pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington.

 

This one is kind of a no brainer for us. With MVS getting cut and Rashee Rice's legal troubles our WR corps is possibly the worst in the league. Polk slots in as a true outside WR that can win vertically and make contested catches. He also projects as an excellent run blocker which is something we value. Polk might not have the suddenness to consistently beat man coverage early in his career but we are seeing mostly zone looks anyways.

 

@Virgil

 

Nice pick!  And great draft @Virgil, this was a blast as always!  We all appreciate the time and work you put into it!

[stinky finger]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I'm really surprised no one tried to trade for Higgins or Aiyuk in this draft

I made an offer for both. 🤓

Edited April 15 by stinky finger

[Virgil]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

In fact, I would have traded up again (still having 3 third round picks, and 2 fourths right now) and grabbed someone like Pearsall or Roman Wilson, but your rules don't allow for us to trade a pick that has already been traded.  So only 1 of my remaining thirds could be traded and I thought it would be unrealistic to give away next years 1st or 2nd just to make a trade work here in this deep of a WR draft.  

 

In hindsight, I feel bad for not approving it.  That was the only trade attempt I denied for that reason.  In previous years, people got out of hand with it and some picks got traded 4 times.  I finally try to get ahead of that, and no one tried it.  

[DrDawkinstein]

I would be THRILLED if the only weapon KC adds from the first 2 rounds of the draft turns out to be Polk.

[Virgil]

Edited April 15 by Virgil

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

In hindsight, I feel bad for not approving it.  That was the only trade attempt I denied for that reason.  In previous years, people got out of hand with it and some picks got traded 4 times.  I finally try to get ahead of that, and no one tried it.  

 

No Fun League ....

 

jkjkjk, thanks for doing this every year. It's great for filling in this dead time between March Madness and the Draft.

[Virgil]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

No Fun League ....

 

jkjkjk, thanks for doing this every year. It's great for filling in this dead time between March Madness and the Draft.

 

You going to join us for 3.0?

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

You going to join us for 3.0?

 

Nah, thanks. I'm a big fan and probably owe some contribution at this point, but so far I'm better as an observer.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

In hindsight, I feel bad for not approving it.  That was the only trade attempt I denied for that reason.  In previous years, people got out of hand with it and some picks got traded 4 times.  I finally try to get ahead of that, and no one tried it.  

 

That wasn't me bud, that was a trade I believe Gunner was doing.  I didn't try to make a trade because I already knew the rule.  Just saying, I probably would have packaged two 3rds to go get someone like Pearsall, Roman Wilson, or Polk to pair with Odunze with all that extra draft ammo I had after the two tiny trade backs.  And I think the Cardinals might have as well...or for someone on the OL too, could see them making that move as well.  

[stinky finger]

@Virgil

 

These are a blast, Virgil! Looking forward to 3.0. Thanks so much.
 

And thanks @section122 and @Alphadawg7 for your input and updates. Not sure how Alphadawg7 managed to approve trades with all his trade activity. Kudos!

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That wasn't me bud, that was a trade I believe Gunner was doing.  I didn't try to make a trade because I already knew the rule.  Just saying, I probably would have packaged two 3rds to go get someone like Pearsall, Roman Wilson, or Polk to pair with Odunze with all that extra draft ammo I had after the two tiny trade backs.  And I think the Cardinals might have as well...or for someone on the OL too, could see them making that move as well.  

 

Yea was my trade and my bad I hadn't read the rules. 

 

FWIW Bralen Trice was the guy I'd have taken if approved.

[H2o]

The Skins KILLED this draft!!!..................... I mean the Commandos...... uhhhhhh, Commanders. HTTR....C....HTTC....Yeah. 

 

[Virgil]

For those not happy with us trading back, I'm curious to understand why.  

 

To me, unless you are unhappy with missing on AD Mitchell, I like that we were able to still get a WR the Bills clearly covet in Franklin, and move up our 2nd round pick enough to grab a Safety that can start Day 1, AND add a 3rd round pick.

 

If we stayed put, there's a chance that AD isn't there in real life, and we end up reaching for someone like Legette or Franklin at 28.  

 

Overall, if we don't get one of the top 3/5 receivers, it's going to be a crap shoot of who goes where, and I trust Beane to make the right calls.  There's going to be a lot of reaches in this draft, just because the talent isn't there at so many positions.  

 

Overall, after two of these mocks, I think I'd be good if the Bills made multiple trade ups in this draft to get 2 players of value in the first two rounds, then let all the middling crap between picks 50-100 go to other teams.  Then the Bills just pick up guys they think can make an impact later on.  No matter what, I don't see there being any steals or value after pick 20.  Not really

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

For those not happy with us trading back, I'm curious to understand why.  

 

To me, unless you are unhappy with missing on AD Mitchell, I like that we were able to still get a WR the Bills clearly covet in Franklin, and move up our 2nd round pick enough to grab a Safety that can start Day 1, AND add a 3rd round pick.

 

If we stayed put, there's a chance that AD isn't there in real life, and we end up reaching for someone like Legette or Franklin at 28.  

 

Overall, if we don't get one of the top 3/5 receivers, it's going to be a crap shoot of who goes where, and I trust Beane to make the right calls.  There's going to be a lot of reaches in this draft, just because the talent isn't there at so many positions.  

 

Overall, after two of these mocks, I think I'd be good if the Bills made multiple trade ups in this draft to get 2 players of value in the first two rounds, then let all the middling crap between picks 50-100 go to other teams.  Then the Bills just pick up guys they think can make an impact later on.  No matter what, I don't see there being any steals or value after pick 20.  Not really

I'm guessing that people aren't wild about the prospects themselves -- Franklin and Bullard.

Me? I'm a Franklin fan. If the Bills can trade back as far in real life as they did in this mock and still get Franklin while adding a 3rd, I'll be thrilled. I don't love Bullard, but would've been happy with Hicks, Bishop, or Bullock. Nevertheless, I doubt that would be possible in real life, as I anticipate Franklin getting drafted earlier than he did here.

The thing is: People want to get their favorite Tier 2 receiving prospect AND still somehow net a 3rd, and as this exercise showed, you can't necessarily have your cake and eat it, too. If you want to move back far enough to net a 3rd, you're gonna miss out on some good prospects. That's just how it works. I kind of wonder if, with as direly as the Bills need WRs in this draft, they've painted themselves into a corner where they kind of CAN'T trade back that far from 28. What if they do so and entirely miss out on the receiver(s) they like? It would be catastrophic.

For as much as everyone has discussed being averse to the risks involved in trading UP in this year's draft, there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about the risks of trading DOWN -- and there probably should be. If nothing else, maybe this mock draft result for the Bills will kickstart that conversation.

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

For those not happy with us trading back, I'm curious to understand why.  

 

To me, unless you are unhappy with missing on AD Mitchell, I like that we were able to still get a WR the Bills clearly covet in Franklin, and move up our 2nd round pick enough to grab a Safety that can start Day 1, AND add a 3rd round pick.

 

If we stayed put, there's a chance that AD isn't there in real life, and we end up reaching for someone like Legette or Franklin at 28.  

 

Overall, if we don't get one of the top 3/5 receivers, it's going to be a crap shoot of who goes where, and I trust Beane to make the right calls.  There's going to be a lot of reaches in this draft, just because the talent isn't there at so many positions.  

 

Overall, after two of these mocks, I think I'd be good if the Bills made multiple trade ups in this draft to get 2 players of value in the first two rounds, then let all the middling crap between picks 50-100 go to other teams.  Then the Bills just pick up guys they think can make an impact later on.  No matter what, I don't see there being any steals or value after pick 20.  Not really

To me the two reasons that people were upset is that Leggette and McConkey were gone at 41 and that the board was not great at 58 (which was not affected by the trade down at all.)

[Virgil]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

To me the two reasons that people were upset is that Leggette and McConkey were gone at 41 and that the board was not great at 58 (which was not affected by the trade down at all.)

 

Do we even know if the Bills are interested in McConkey?  I'm pretty sure Leggette was a top 30 visit. 

[LEBills]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Do we even know if the Bills are interested in McConkey?  I'm pretty sure Leggette was a top 30 visit. 

McConkey said he has met with the Bills several times. Bills met with Legette at the Senior Bowl and combine but no top 30 reported for either yet

 

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

To me the two reasons that people were upset is that Leggette and McConkey were gone at 41 and that the board was not great at 58 (which was not affected by the trade down at all.)

Yea this is it. There are some big time Legette and McConkey fans on the board for them to be gone. Franklin has his fans (me, Logic) but he is not nearly as popular. As for round 2, when you have 31 other Bills fans picking 56 players ahead of our pick, the guys bills fandom tend to like go earlier. In real life, the board will likely look much more favorable to us when 60 rolls around.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Do we even know if the Bills are interested in McConkey?  I'm pretty sure Leggette was a top 30 visit. 

I really don't have any interest in getting into a back-and-forth with anyone about this person's reliability. They've been right more often than they've been wrong in the past, and have been the first to break a few signings over the years. I believe they have a source on the medical side of things on the Bills staff. Believe it if you want, or don't. Me? I believe it.

He also claims they really liked and did a ton of work on Addison and JSN last year. The Bills have a "type" at WR, and the interest reported last year and below point to that type.

**Also of note, particularly as it relates to McConkey: Doing a bunch of medical checks on a guy doesn't NECESSARILY mean they like that player. But then, why go through the effort of doing those multiple checks if they don't have at least a reasonable amount of interest in him?
 

 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

For those not happy with us trading back, I'm curious to understand why.  

 

To me, unless you are unhappy with missing on AD Mitchell, I like that we were able to still get a WR the Bills clearly covet in Franklin, and move up our 2nd round pick enough to grab a Safety that can start Day 1, AND add a 3rd round pick.

 

If we stayed put, there's a chance that AD isn't there in real life, and we end up reaching for someone like Legette or Franklin at 28.  

 

Overall, if we don't get one of the top 3/5 receivers, it's going to be a crap shoot of who goes where, and I trust Beane to make the right calls.  There's going to be a lot of reaches in this draft, just because the talent isn't there at so many positions.  

 

Overall, after two of these mocks, I think I'd be good if the Bills made multiple trade ups in this draft to get 2 players of value in the first two rounds, then let all the middling crap between picks 50-100 go to other teams.  Then the Bills just pick up guys they think can make an impact later on.  No matter what, I don't see there being any steals or value after pick 20.  Not really

 

I would be more than satisfied with this trade back scenario. Getting Franklin and then having the ability to trade up for Coleman or Wilson (or any two WRs in that tier depending on how the real draft goes), and coming away with our 3rd rounder back, is the ideal scenario IMO. Of course one's appetite for this result will depend on their own WR preferences. Personally I want to come away with any two out of that 2nd/3rd tier of WRs and recoup our 3rd round pick in the process.

[Virgil]

On 4/15/2024 at 2:04 PM, Virgil said:

Hey everyone, 

 

I just wanted to thank you all for your support in moving these drafts along so quickly.  I know I said that if 2.0 ended soon enough, we would possibly have a 3rd round.  While we did move quicker than I expected, I do think I'm going to end the draft after this round.  Honestly, I have a lot of work and other things going on this week that I need to catch up on, so to have a break for the rest of the week before 3.0 would be helpful to me.

 

The plan will be to have the sign-up sheet for 3.0 launch on Sunday, with the draft starting on Monday.  That puts the Bills poll most likely at Wednesday into Thursday, and the mock draft being done before the real one starts.

 

Again, I apologize if that ruffles any feathers, and if I could change the thread ownership page over to someone else, I would. 

 

Thank you all

 

Signup for 3.0 will start tomorrow morning 

[stinky finger]

On 4/15/2024 at 4:31 PM, Logic said:

I really don't have any interest in getting into a back-and-forth with anyone about this person's reliability. They've been right more often than they've been wrong in the past, and have been the first to break a few signings over the years. I believe they have a source on the medical side of things on the Bills staff. Believe it if you want, or don't. Me? I believe it.

He also claims they really liked and did a ton of work on Addison and JSN last year. The Bills have a "type" at WR, and the interest reported last year and below point to that type.

**Also of note, particularly as it relates to McConkey: Doing a bunch of medical checks on a guy doesn't NECESSARILY mean they like that player. But then, why go through the effort of doing those multiple checks if they don't have at least a reasonable amount of interest in him?
 

 

 

I'll take 2 to go. 

Edited April 21 by stinky finger

[BobbyC81]

7 hours ago, stinky finger said:

 

I'll take 2 to go. 

I saw an article recently about Worthy that claimed the chances are slim that he turns out like John Ross.  He supposedly is a very good route runner with a lot of experience running various routes.  Plus, you can’t coach speed.

 

The main drawback of him seems to be his small, skinny frame.  The best way to combat press coverage is to play a WR in the slot and/or have him on the move.  We seem to already have a number of guys to play the slot in Samuel, Shakir and Isabella.  They need a big guy.

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

I saw an article recently about Worthy that claimed the chances are slim that he turns out like John Ross.  He supposedly is a very good route runner with a lot of experience running various routes.  Plus, you can’t coach speed.

 

The main drawback of him seems to be his small, skinny frame.  The best way to combat press coverage is to play a WR in the slot and/or have him on the move.  We seem to already have a number of guys to play the slot in Samuel, Shakir and Isabella.  They need a big guy.

I hear you. Worthy doesn’t have to be one of the two. I’d be game for several different combos. 

[TPS]

Ha! Fins picked Chop.  I often take teams further back in the draft, so the odds of me picking the same as the actual pick is near zero. 

I might be able to do it again if we do this another 100 years.