Compared to other QBs, JA dominates in December and January

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Airseven said:

Most of these comparisons and records rely on his rushing. The rushing proves he’s an elite athlete. We know he’s an elite athlete. But I don’t think the rushing distinguishes him as an elite QB…or better than Mahomes.

It’s a growing trend to compare Allen’s rushing TD’s to others passing TD’s and while I understand a TD is a TD it’s not that way with how defenses respect the position. I hope he defines his legacy starting Sunday. 

[ToGoGo]

Excited for Allen to win so he can shut up the Chiefs narrative. 
 

“Realists” never admit they were wrong. They just go silent and move on to the next negative narrative. 
 

“Never won a road playoff game.”

”Never made the Super Bowl.”

”Never won a Super Bowl.”

 

Let’s kill every last narrative in the next 4 weeks. 

[Thrivefourfive]

With Allen, when the team wins it’s so easy feeling to say we’ve got the best QB in the NFL, and the numbers glaringly prove it. The Bills have also won games where he had vanilla off week numbers. But the thing is he can also reflect bad Bills games with his turnovers. 
 

The December/January numbers and Bills winning ratio may just be that Allen gets his turnovers out of his system during the play-around season, and buckles down taking care of the ball, picking his spots, and letting things develop as the defensives stretch themselves thin trying to cover a 5000 yd2 football field, ground and air, in the play-off season (which has included December must win games a couple years). 
 

This is it, my friends. Last year, the whole organization was shot by the time of the Bengals game. Two years ago, robbed by 13 seconds. The year before that, Allen and the Bills were newbies in the AFCCG. It can all be easily explained. The game this weekend, and beyond, Allen and the Bills must put all the great late season stuff since 2020 on the nail and hammer this thing home. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Excited for Allen to win so he can shut up the Chiefs narrative. 
 

“Realists” never admit they were wrong. They just go silent and move on to the next negative narrative. 
 

“Never won a road playoff game.”

”Never made the Super Bowl.”

”Never won a Super Bowl.”

 

Let’s kill every last narrative in the next 4 weeks. 

This is a huge game in Allen vs mahomes lore lol has mahomes ever lost to the same opponent three times in a row? I’m gonna assume no

[ChrisWatson#21]

On 1/18/2024 at 11:04 PM, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

That seems unreal given how Mahomes has played deeper into the playoffs each year, but there it is! We do indeed have something special cooking at QB…

Mahomes is severely over rated by the media.  Nearly lost SB’s vs career backup Jimmy G, one read RPO Boy and the one time he saw a real QB in a SB he got ran off the field.  In fact it was the easiest of lay ups for TB12 in his seven championships.  It is what it is he does have the rings but I attribute that success to his team and coaches not because he carried them.  

[TheWeatherMan]

14 hours ago, KeLLy1278 said:

Not sure how anyone can poo poo this comment.  I guess winning isn’t important?  It’s all about the stat sheet?  Enjoy the stats guys.

Because it’s a team game?  How many collective championships do Dan Marino and Jimbo have in their resume.   Meanwhile, there are plenty of scrub QB’s with championships.  

[HappyDays]

14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

It’s a growing trend to compare Allen’s rushing TD’s to others passing TD’s and while I understand a TD is a TD it’s not that way with how defenses respect the position. I hope he defines his legacy starting Sunday. 

 

?

 

You don't think defenses respect Allen's running?

 

18 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

His QB rating in the Houston game and Bengals game was under 70. The offense did nothing in the AFC championship vs KC and his rating was under 80. He did not help Buffalo in those losses.

 

In the Houston game specifically he was great. He singlehandedly willed the offense down the field while his WR2 was literally a CFL receiver. I guess everyone's lasting memory of that game is his goofy lateral to Knox. Watch it again some time if you can. He was excellent, creating something out of nothing a dozen times with by far the worst offensive supporting cast of the playoff teams that year. I came out of that game knowing we had a superstar QB, once he had a real team around him.

 

Edited January 20 by HappyDays

[Airseven]

3 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Because it’s a team game?  How many collective championships do Dan Marino and Jimbo have in their resume.   Meanwhile, there are plenty of scrub QB’s with championships.  

The “team game/blame the defense or coach” stuff is perspective. One could also say Allen didn’t do enough in the first half of :13 to help the team win.
 

Keep in mind the standard boasted around here is that Allen is a generational player, best QB in the game, and future HOFer. His team needs to appear on the big stage for any of that to ring true.

 

No one debates he’s a consensus top 5/franchise QB and fantastic fit in Buffalo.

[Alphadawg7]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:24 PM, Airseven said:

Fun stats. But he’s got one AFC championship game appearance on his resume. As you say, he needs to win not just compile more rushing TDs.

Why don’t you just tell everyone which team you’re really a fan of already.  It’s obvious it ain’t the Bills as you only approve of negative commentary and mock anything that shows any positivity on any subject related to the Bills or any player.  
 

Your schtick is played out man.  You need better hobbies 

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

?

 

You don't think defenses respect Allen's running?

 

 

In the Houston game specifically he was great. He singlehandedly willed the offense down the field while his WR2 was literally a CFL receiver. I guess everyone's lasting memory of that game is his goofy lateral to Knox. Watch it again some time if you can. He was excellent, creating something out of nothing a dozen times with by far the worst offensive supporting cast of the playoff teams that year. I came out of that game knowing we had a superstar QB, once he had a real team around him.

 

I'm sure having to care for the run game at QB stretches the defense in uncomfortable ways but in my opinion the main power of a QB is to stretch the defense vertically by throwing the ball.  I just don't view rushing touchdowns at QB in the same way as passing touchdowns. Which is fine if you want to debate that, I just don't see Allens value in the running game literally being double this year which his running TD's would indicate nor do I see the value of those TD's near on the level of passing TD's which most people on this forum now prescribe to. 

 

I also feel the offense has failed us in 3 of our 4 postseason losses. We can say the 2019 team didn't have talent or Allen hasn't had the tools or that the defense failed us which it most certainly did, but nobody uses qualifiers as time progresses. It's only a luxury afforded to die hard fans like yourself. Some die hard in Cuba is talking about how Marino really is the greatest of all time and Shula just never surrounded him with the right players. Meanwhile it's not even a conversation outside that group. Same thing with Josh. Nobody is debating who the best QB in December and January is that doesn't belong to this forum. It's not even being asked. 

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I just don't view rushing touchdowns at QB in the same way as passing touchdowns. Which is fine if you want to debate that

 

There's nothing to debate. Both show up as 6 points on the scoreboard. I thought we left "rushing from QBs doesn't count" in the last decade. In the modern NFL it's almost a requirement.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's nothing to debate. Both show up as 6 points on the scoreboard. I thought we left "rushing from QBs doesn't count" in the last decade. In the modern NFL it's almost a requirement.

It counts as 6 just the same, but it's more stressful for a defense to be threatened vertically. When we start seeing Super Bowl champions led by QB's who run scramble a lot I will change my mind. 

[HappyDays]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

but it's more stressful for a defense to be threatened vertically

 

It's more stressful for a defense when you score TDs.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's more stressful for a defense when you score TDs.

Lets see how this Texans game works out

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Lets see how this Texans game works out

 

Lamar's legs just earned them a TD drive. I'm not sure why this is the hill you are choosing to die on. QB rushing yards and TDs have never been more important than they are today.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lamar's legs just earned them a TD drive. I'm not sure why this is the hill you are choosing to die on. QB rushing yards and TDs have never been more important than they are today.

Because if I wanted to waste my time it would be incredibly easy to prove rushing TD's at the QB position have almost no relationship with future playoff success. The QB finishing in the top 5 in rushing TD's last won a Super Bowl when? Now look at passing TD's. What is Lamars playoff record? What QB that can run are you going to point out to me that has had playoff success? Hurts?

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Because if I wanted to waste my time it would be incredibly easy to prove rushing TD's at the QB position have almost no relationship with future playoff success. The QB finishing in the top 5 in rushing TD's last won a Super Bowl when? Now look at passing TD's. What is Lamars playoff record? What QB that can run are you going to point out to me that has had playoff success? Hurts?

 

How about the QB finishing in total TDs which is what we're talking about right now.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

How about the QB finishing in total TDs which is what we're talking about right now.

We are talking about running TD's not holding the same value as passing TD's. Which you wanted to get into the immediate value of 6 points on, which I never was talking about. They don't predict success and almost have an inverse relationship with it. But people still want to talk about rushing TD's from the QB as if they are on the same level as passing TD's and if that's how you want to feel great. I don't agree and all the data clearly aligns to passing TD's being far more predictive of future success.

[HappyDays]

45 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We are talking about running TD's not holding the same value as passing TD's. Which you wanted to get into the immediate value of 6 points on, which I never was talking about. They don't predict success and almost have an inverse relationship with it. But people still want to talk about rushing TD's from the QB as if they are on the same level as passing TD's and if that's how you want to feel great. I don't agree and all the data clearly aligns to passing TD's being far more predictive of future success.

 

Two TDs, brought to you by Lamar's legs. This isn't really a debate. It's a simple fact that all yards and TDs count the same.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Two TDs, brought to you by Lamar's legs. This isn't really a debate. It's a simple fact that all yards and TDs count the same.

You're right. It's not debatable.  Lamar and his 89 yards passing, who has largely sucked in the playoffs because a better team will just take away his legs and that will happen again. Which is what always happens. If running prowess could hold up in the postseason we would see at least a few examples of it raising the trophy. Again, who in the top 5 in rushing TD's at QB has gone onto to win the Super Bowl? Now look at who the Top 5 in passing TD's has. It's basically every season. Rushing TD's just don't mean as much. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Again, who in the top 5 in rushing TD's at QB has gone onto to win the Super Bowl? Now look at who the Top 5 in passing TD's has. It's basically every season. Rushing TD's just don't mean as much. 

 

You're misevaluating the data. Passing TDs will always out pace rushing TDs. That is why QBs who rank top 5 in rushing TDs do not necessarily end up winning in the playoffs, while top 5 in passing TDs generally do. That does not mean rushing TDs are less valuable than passing TDs. It means total TDs are what ultimately matter regardless of how you get there.

 

You're trying to argue that two plays which each create 6 points are somehow not equal in value. Occam's razor...

 

Edited January 20 by HappyDays

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're misevaluating the data. Passing TDs will always out pace rushing TDs. That is why QBs who rank top 5 in rushing TDs do not necessarily end up winning in the playoffs, while top 5 in passing TDs generally do. That does not mean rushing TDs are less valuable than passing TDs. It means total TDs are what ultimately matter regardless of how you get there.

 

You're trying to argue that two plays which each create 6 points are somehow not equal in value. Occam's razor...

 

 

So you want to look at the data as a % TD's?

 

Actually, lets say, top 10 total TD's on the year and among that 10, top 3 % of those TD's from rushing TD's. How do you think that will play out? 

 

Edited January 20 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

So you want to look at the data as a % TD's?

 

 

No. Because it doesnt matter. Total TDs. That's it.

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No. Because it doesnt matter. Total TDs. That's it.

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

[Punch]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

Allen is 4th in TD passes this season, and 3 away from 2nd most. Why does the fact that he also scored a bunch of rushing TDs negatively impact the odds of winning the Super Bowl? 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Punch said:

Allen is 4th in TD passes this season, and 3 away from 2nd most. Why does the fact that he also scored a bunch of rushing TDs negatively impact the odds of winning the Super Bowl? 

I think a better question to ask is why do QB's who have above average rushing production not win the Super Bowl? My guess would be it's easier to take away the legs than the arm and if that is a big contributor to what you do it can really hurt productivity. Allen is probably as hybrid as we have seen but my argument was not that Allen can't do it, I hope to hell he can. It's that I don't value his rushing production the same as passing production.  If it was done with his arm he would go into a statistical group that is responsible for every win in modern Super Bowl history.  As it stands he's part of a group that can't win one. Hurts almost changed that.  Allen has as good a chance as any. 

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

 

3 TDs now, on behalf of Lamar's legs.

 

The question you're asking is irrelevant.

[Punch]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I think a better question to ask is why do QB's who have above average rushing production not win the Super Bowl? My guess would be it's easier to take away the legs than the arm and if that is a big contributor to what you do it can really hurt productivity. Allen is probably as hybrid as we have seen but my argument was not that Allen can't do it, I hope to hell he can. It's that I don't value his rushing production the same as passing production.  If it was done with his arm he would go into a statistical group that is responsible for every win in modern Super Bowl history.  As it stands he's part of a group that can't win one. Hurts almost changed that.  Allen has as good a chance as any. 

The sample size of NFL QBs who are great runners is small enough that it reduces the already long odds of any niche group winning a Super Bowl. Mobility and escapability, on the other hand, have long been important traits for great QBs, many of whom have won Super Bowls.

 

You're arbitrarily picking a statistic that doesn't necessarily correlate due to the historically small sample, especially in light of how the NFL is changing.

 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Punch said:

The sample size of NFL QBs who are great runners is small enough that it reduces the already long odds of any niche group winning a Super Bowl. Mobility and escapability, on the other hand, have long been important traits for great QBs, many of whom have won Super Bowls.

 

You're arbitrarily picking a statistic that doesn't necessarily correlate due to the historically small sample, especially in light of how the NFL is changing.

 

Mobility and escapability when not being converted into rushing output would benefit passing output. I'm just using what history exists in the league. What you say might end up being true eventually but why should you or anybody else be the one that determines it's true before it actually is? 

Edited January 21 by Mikie2times

[Punch]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

Mobility and escapability when not being converted into rushing output would benefit passing output. I'm just using what history exists in the league. What you say might end up being true eventually but why should you or anybody else be the one that determines it's true before it actually is? 

You're the one making declarations.

 

I'm saying it's arbitrary for you to make those declarations but especially considering the evidence throughout the current NFL. I'm not trying to predict the future, its happening now.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Punch said:

You're the one making declarations.

 

I'm saying it's arbitrary for you to make those declarations but especially considering the evidence throughout the current NFL. I'm not trying to predict the future, its happening now.

This isn't that complicated

 

Player A : 29 TD and 19 INT with 15 rushing TD 

Player B:  44 TD and 19 INT

 

Player B wins everyday and twice on Sunday. It's not even a conversation.

 

What is happening now? This is the top 10 total touchdown leaders at QB every year since 2019 and I can take this back as long as you want. Show me the Super Bowl winner who has a high % of his TD's from rushing? Every winner is under 10%. So yes, if I have the option of player A's output vs player B's, I'm going with the one that produced the Super Bowl winners every year in modern NFL history. I know, I'm crazy. 

 

 

Edited January 21 by Mikie2times

[Punch]

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

This isn't that complicated

I know. You're picking an arbitrary statistical threshold that you've decided means something it doesn't. It's leading you to waste your Saturday night.

[julian]

I like QBs who score lots of points, they tend to win more often than those who don’t.

[Mikie2times]

44 minutes ago, Punch said:

I know. You're picking an arbitrary statistical threshold that you've decided means something it doesn't. It's leading you to waste your Saturday night.

The conversation is about rushing TD's not being an impactful as passing TD's. I went with Top 5 rushing TD's each year and that was not ok. So what method do you want use to say this QB's production is skewed more towards rushing than passing on average? Whatever arbitrary way you want to do this exercise will produce the exact same result.  

Edited January 21 by Mikie2times

[Southern_Bills]

On 1/18/2024 at 10:04 PM, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

That seems unreal given how Mahomes has played deeper into the playoffs each year, but there it is! We do indeed have something special cooking at QB…

 

I believe deep down when Mahomes and Allen wrap up their career Allen will come out on top, he's the better QB hands down IMO.

[schoolhouserock]

On 1/19/2024 at 9:15 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Josh Allen doesn’t play defense 

…yet…