Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[Augie]

21 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

 

I LOVE the Christmassy colors!!!    😋

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just so happy we found a way to win this one, unlike the Broncos game. 

[Billy Claude]

21 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

 

Just to add to this, the Jaguar game was the first game the Bills have lost in four years (since 2020) where the Bills actually had fewer turnovers than the opponents.

 

 

 

 

[Ramza86]

What im seeing is the multiple turnover being a big deal.

 

1 turnover is something that isnt an issue for this team. Multiple TOs on the other hand....want to avoid that 2nd one.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Need to ask Brett Farve about it..

[Perry Turtle]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Dak walked off the field today with a lead, crown this man the MVP already!

You blame him for that loss?  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Perry Turtle said:

You blame him for that loss?  

Obviously. There’s a lot of game that’s played before the last drive.

 

If we are gonna play the “Josh left the field with the lead” game, let’s play it for every QB. 
 

DAK MVP!

[Perry Turtle]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Obviously. There’s a lot of game that’s played before the last drive.

 

If we are gonna play the “Josh left the field with the lead” game, let’s play it for every QB. 
 

DAK MVP!

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

What's the point of this line of thinking 

 

I mean Mahomes and Chiefs are like 2-5 when their defense gives up 20

 

It's not a reflection on the QB

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

What's the point of this line of thinking 

 

I mean Mahomes and Chiefs are like 2-5 when their defense gives up 20

 

It's not a reflection on the QB

Mahomes has been sneaky kinda bad this year tbh.

[Perry Turtle]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

It's pretty easy to eclipse when it only requires you to count to 11 when sending out a block team or stopping Mac Jones on the final drive of a game.  

 

Be careful firing that gun rabbit; you're liable to blow your own head off.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

53 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

Pats and Broncos suck on offense ............. it's almost like something was helping them score points.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Perry Turtle said:

It's pretty easy to eclipse when it only requires you to count to 11 when sending out a block team or stopping Mac Jones on the final drive of a game.  

 

Be careful firing that gun rabbit; you're liable to blow your own head off.

 

 

Josh gave both those teams points enough to win lol. 

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[BigDingus]

16 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Need to ask Brett Farve about it..

 

Why? Turnovers aren't just a QB problem. 

 

But if you're just trying to equate Allen to Favre, there's plenty of other issues with that premise as well.

 

Favre was the best QB in the league at multiple points, won a SB in his 5th year, and won 3 straight MVPs from 1995 - 1997. In those MVP years, here were his numbers compared to other QBs:

 

1995: 4,413 passing yards (1st) / 38 passing TDs (1st) *41 total* / 13 INTs (15th) / 8 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, AP OPY

1996: 3,899 passing yards (4th) / 39 passing TDs (1st) *41 total / 13 INTs (17th) / 11 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, Won Super Bowl

1997: 3,867 passing yards (2nd) / 35 passing TDs (1st) *36 total / 16 INTs (3rd) / 7 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, Lost Super Bowl

 

Aside from 1997, he was way below the league average in turnovers, and way above the pack when it came to TDs. His teams also achieved a ton of success, making the NFCCG or Super Bowl every year in that stretch. 

 

Allen is amazing, but this thread isn't ONLY about Allen. As a Bills fan, it's amazing to have a QB that's good enough to even be compared to Favre, but ultimately the TEAM needs to protect the ball better, otherwise the TEAM will not achieve the success Favre & those Packers teams did.

 

[Big Turk]

At least the Bills TOs rarely lead to defensive TDs.

[Perry Turtle]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Josh gave both those teams points enough to win lol. 

No, he scored enough points to beat both those teams and the Eagles.  Josh walked off the field with the lead in 12 of 15 games this year.  

 

Keep shooting, though, rabbit.  You might figure this out yet.

[Perry Turtle]

44 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Pats and Broncos suck on offense ............. it's almost like something was helping them score points.

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Just now, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

I'm trying to think if anything else might have helped?  Like if the other teams offense got the ball already in scoring position.  How would that happen?

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

Josh threw a pick at the end of half that gave the Broncos 3. They won by two.

 

Josh threw a pick first play from scrimmage that gave the Pats 7. They won by 4.

 

Sucks.

[Perry Turtle]

5 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I'm trying to think if anything else might have helped?  Like if the other teams offense got the ball already in scoring position.  How would that happen?

Nah, Bills count 11 guys on that block, game over, Bills win.  No what ifs, no style points, no bonus points.

 

No penalty, Bills have more points at 0:00:  Bills win.  End. Of. Story.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[Perry Turtle]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh threw a pick at the end of half that gave the Broncos 3. They won by two.

 

Josh threw a pick first play from scrimmage that gave the Pats 7. They won by 4.

 

Sucks.

Josh made that mistake, but came back and gave the Bills the lead at the end of the game.  That's why you want an elite QB, because he can win you games by overcoming mistakes.

 

Coaching staffing counts 11 on the block, Bills win, because Allen led the comeback.  But the coaching staff effed it up.  And because of that, the Bills lost.

 

And if you want to waste your Xmas rationalizing that Mac Jones drive, be my guest.  I'll stick with my take, that that loss is on the the defense giving up a 75 yard last minute drive against the worst QB in the league.

 

Another misfire Rabbit.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Perry Turtle

[Maine-iac]

3 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Nah, Bills count 11 guys on that block, game over, Bills win.  No what ifs, no style points, no bonus points.

 

No penalty, Bills have more points at 0:00:  Bills win.  End. Of. Story.

So we are talking about things we could have done that would have kept them from scoring a field goal ................ because I can think of a couple.  

[Perry Turtle]

1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:

So we are talking about things we could have done that would have kept them from scoring a field goal ................ because I can think of a couple.  

Yeah, put the right number of people of the field.  You really don't have think much further than that.

[Maine-iac]

Just now, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, put the right number of people of the field.  You really don't have think much further than that.

Don't give them free points and you don't have to think at all.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Josh made that mistake, but came back and gave the Bills the lead at the end of the game.  That's why you want an elite QB, because he can win you games by overcoming mistakes.

 

Coaching staffing counts 11 on the block, Bills win, because Allen led the comeback.  But the coaching staff effed it up.  And because of that, the Bills lost.

 

And if you want to waste your Xmas rationalizing that Mac Jones drive, be my guest.  I'll stick with my take, that that loss is on the the defense giving up a 75 yard last minute drive against the worst QB in the league.

 

Another misfire Rabbit.

Josh overcoming Josh’s mistakes isn’t as good as Josh making less mistakes.

[BigDingus]

On 12/24/2023 at 1:56 PM, BigDingus said:

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

 

Just wanted to highlight after today's Chiefs loss. 

 

Chiefs 2 x turnovers vs Raiders 0 turnovers. 

 

This is the most turnovers Mahomes has had in a season (16) and now have the same record as the Bills. For the first time ever, the Chiefs face going through the playoffs without home field advantage throughout. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Just wanted to highlight after today's Chiefs loss. 

 

Chiefs 2 x turnovers vs Raiders 0 turnovers. 

 

This is the most turnovers Mahomes has had in a season (16) and now have the same record as the Bills. For the first time ever, the Chiefs face going through the playoffs without home field advantage throughout. 

Turnovers are bad!

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Just wanted to highlight after today's Chiefs loss. 

 

Chiefs 2 x turnovers vs Raiders 0 turnovers. 

 

This is the most turnovers Mahomes has had in a season (16) and now have the same record as the Bills. For the first time ever, the Chiefs face going through the playoffs without home field advantage throughout. 

The part that I'd emphasize also is that there's a good chance the Raiders don't score enough to beat the Chiefs if Mahommes doesn't throw them the ball twice.

[Perry Turtle]

Just now, FireChans said:

Josh overcoming Josh’s mistakes isn’t as good as Josh making less mistakes.

You're completely wrong.  Coaching Josh to make less mistakes got Dorsey fired. Nerfing your franchise QB when to achieve fewer turnovers, when the turnovers aren't the true reason you are losing games, is just dumb.

 

The title of this thread is Turnovers are the Bills Achilles heel.  They're not.  Defensive injuries and coaching are the team's Achilles heel this season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

We are tied for 8th in the NFL in giveaways. We tied for 3rd worst last year. The NFL is still largely about turnover differential. Just because our QB often makes up for it in heroic fashion or other teams are also playing sloppy doesn't change the importance of protecting the ball. Brady seems to be aware especially in these close games that removing passing attempts removes turnover probability. That attitude would have won us the Jets game. 

5 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

The part that I'd emphasize also is that there's a good chance the Raiders don't score enough to beat the Chiefs if Mahommes doesn't throw them the ball twice.

Yup, just like the Jets opener. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

You're completely wrong.  Coaching Josh to make less mistakes got Dorsey fired. Nerfing your franchise QB when to achieve fewer turnovers, when the turnovers aren't the true reason you are losing games, is just dumb.

 

The title of this thread is Turnovers are the Bills Achilles heel.  They're not.  Defensive injuries and coaching are the team's Achilles heel this season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is just wrong. 
 

Turnovers differential is super correlated to wins and losses. 
 

This would be like saying “the Steelers defense forcing a bunch of turnovers isn’t the reason they win games.”

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

You're completely wrong.  Coaching Josh to make less mistakes got Dorsey fired. Nerfing your franchise QB when to achieve fewer turnovers, when the turnovers aren't the true reason you are losing games, is just dumb.

 

The title of this thread is Turnovers are the Bills Achilles heel.  They're not.  Defensive injuries and coaching are the team's Achilles heel this season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Teams have nearly an 80% win rate when winning the turnover battle but somehow you feel like 1) we are immune to it and 2) you can somehow quantify injuries and coaching to have more impact than something that has been proven to be overwhelming statistically   

[Perry Turtle]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

Teams have nearly an 80% win rate when winning the turnover battle but somehow you feel like 1) we are immune to it and 2) you can somehow quantify injuries and coaching to have more impact than something that has been proven to be overwhelming statistically   

Um, yes.  It's called having a franchise QB.

 

Remind me, what was the TO count in the Chargers game?  Oh look, the Bills are part of the 20%!

[Billy Claude]

i repeat myself but people who think that it would kill Allen's game to reduce his turnovers a bit must think Allen is a real idiot who can't learn anything.

 

He has already reduced fumbles from 13 last year to 4 this year.  Is it too much to ask a 6 year vet to throw a few less interceptions?

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Um, yes.  It's called having a franchise QB.

 

Remind me, what was the TO count in the Chargers game?  Oh look, the Bills are part of the 20%!

What do you think our record is with Josh when we lose the turnover battle?

[Perry Turtle]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is just wrong. 
 

Turnovers differential is super correlated to wins and losses. 
 

This would be like saying “the Steelers defense forcing a bunch of turnovers isn’t the reason they win games.”

There are a lot of ways to win the the NFL.  Steelers use defense, because their QBs suck.  The Bills have a unicorn at QB, and they use him to win. Turning him into a game manager because they're afraid of an int is just stupid.

 

The only metric that matters is scoring more points than the opponent.  Again, the Bills offense walked of the field 12 out of 15 times this year with more points than the opponent.  What happened after that is on the defense.

[Perry Turtle]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

What do you think our record is with Josh when we lose the turnover battle?

I don't know and I don't feel like looking it up.

 

They're 9-7 this season,  and have lost 3 games on the last drive.  So the offense walked off the field with the lead 12 out 15 games this year.

 

You want to do the mind-bending exercise to prove that they had 12 men on the field because of an Allen interception, or that they gave up a 75 yard last minute drive to the worst QB in the league because of an Allen interception, or how one Allen interception accounted for 30 points after the first half of the Eagles game, go ahead.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

I don't know and I don't feel like looking it up.

 

They're 9-7 this season,  and have lost 3 games on the last drive.  So the offense walked off the field with the lead 12 out 15 games this year.

 

You want to do the mind-bending exercise to prove that they had 12 men on the field because of an Allen interception, or that they gave up a 75 yard last minute drive to the worst QB in the league because of an Allen interception, or how one Allen interception accounted for 30 points after the first half of the Eagles game, go ahead.

 

 

Not really mind bending. The Bills are 29-26 when the turnover battle is even or negative and 31-2 when it's positive since 2019. 

[Rockinon]

The problem with thinking the Bill's can simply keep on throwing 50 passes a game has nothing to do with Josh. Defenses have great pass rushes and great defensive backfields now. It's madness to continue playing the same way. Whether you like it or not, Josh does have to be a game manager. It's his job. Defenses are excelling at taking away the pass all across the league. You do have to take the quick dumpoffs, and run the ball to keep defenses from dictating the game. That doesn't mean he can't take his shots downfield. It just means a reduction in pass attempts will likely help the team.