Cover 1 breakdown of the Dorsey offense

[GoBills808]

57 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Do you honestly believe this offense is as good as EPA suggests?  How confident are you that the leagues top EPA offense will score on any given drive?

I honestly do

 

I just see other teams have similar issues re scoring and consistency, I don't believe our struggles are particularly unique. 

[White Linen]

On 11/7/2023 at 12:22 PM, Success said:

They took a huge risk not bringing an experienced OC on to a team that was already a contender.

 

It's just not working out. When I watch our O, the word that comes to mind is "vanilla."  Other offenses have much more creativity and unpredictability.

 

 

100% agree

[Scott7975]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I honestly do

 

I just see other teams have similar issues re scoring and consistency, I don't believe our struggles are particularly unique. 

 

Again, over the last 5 games the Bills are 20th in points per game.  Even over the last 3 games which removes a 6 point game and a 14 point game the Bills are tied 13th and only 1.3 ppg from being 15th (average.)  They are not good on offense if they don't score.  This isn't a league wide problem.  Maybe you are ok with being average while having an elite QB but I am not.  With an elite QB, you should not be average, which is actually well below average over the last 5.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Again, over the last 5 games the Bills are 20th in points per game.  Even over the last 3 games which removes a 6 point game and a 14 point game the Bills are tied 13th and only 1.3 ppg from being 15th (average.)  They are not good on offense if they don't score.  This isn't a league wide problem.  Maybe you are ok with being average while having an elite QB but I am not.  With an elite QB, you should not be average, which is actually well below average over the last 5.

We are scoring more PPG over the last 3 games than the Chiefs

 

Do they not also have an elite QB

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We are scoring more PPG over the last 3 games than the Chiefs

 

Do they not also have an elite QB

 

The Chiefs offense is also not playing well this year and if I were a Chiefs fan I would be just as disappointed with their offense as I am with the Bills offense.  The Chiefs are not the measuring stick for offense this year.  Just because the Chiefs offense is also bad doesn't make our 20th in points offense good.  There are still 19 teams better.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Chiefs offense is also not playing well this year and if I were a Chiefs fan I would be just as disappointed with their offense as I am with the Bills offense.  The Chiefs are not the measuring stick for offense this year.  Just because the Chiefs offense is also bad doesn't make our 20th in points offense good.  There are still 19 teams better.

You said elite QB

 

dolphins offense is top of the league and we are scoring more than them over the last 3 games as well

 

It's meaningless imo

[Scott7975]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

You said elite QB

 

dolphins offense is top of the league and we are scoring more than them over the last 3 games as well

 

It's meaningless imo

 

I don't think being 20th in ppg over the last 5 games meaningless.  We aren't scoring.  Thats a fact. Whats meaningless is EPA.  Scoring and stopping other teams from scoring is what matters in the NFL. Wins and losses is what matters in the NFL.  I really don't care about advanced analytics showing we are the best when the actual score card shows we are well below average.

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Chiefs offense is also not playing well this year and if I were a Chiefs fan I would be just as disappointed with their offense as I am with the Bills offense.  The Chiefs are not the measuring stick for offense this year.  Just because the Chiefs offense is also bad doesn't make our 20th in points offense good.  There are still 19 teams better.

I suspect that when you're the defending Super Bowl champions and have been to 4 straight AFC championship games all on the back of your Offense their fans aren't so disappointed in a one year dip.  Especially given that their coach & GM will prioritize WR's in the off season and fix the problem like they did with the O line after the TB Super Bowl loss.

 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I suspect that when you're the defending Super Bowl champions and have been to 4 straight AFC championship games all on the back of your Offense their fans aren't so disappointed in a one year dip.  Especially given that their coach & GM will prioritize WR's in the off season and fix the problem like they did with the O line after the TB Super Bowl loss.

 

 

Well sure, it softens the blow so to speak.  It also helps that their D has helped them win games so they aren't really in the same position as us as they still lead the conference.  I would still want to see my offense play better.

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

Well sure, it softens the blow so to speak.  It also helps that their D has helped them win games so they aren't really in the same position as us as they still lead the conference.  I would still want to see my offense play better.

But it begins and ends with the fact that the Chiefs franchise values offense over defense.  Strategically their defense is expected to compliment what their offense is doing not as in the Bills case the other way around.  They do this because their head coach is offensive focused and he has one of the top 3 QB's in the NFL.  As a result the Chiefs act decisively to fix problems on their offense.  Reid sees Mahomes as his ticket to winning games on the back of his offense and acts accordingly.

 

The Bills are polar opposites with a defensive minded coach who sees having an elite QB as a way to free up even more resources for the defense. McD sees Allen as a ticket to having an effective offense without having to commit a lot of resources to it.  The role of the offense in McD's system is to compliment a defense that is expected to win games. This worked 20 years ago but not today. 

[Scott7975]

Here is the epa using 10-90%.  As I understand it that is the value most people use.

 

 

I did not generate these.  It was from a cover 1 thread on twitter but it was easier to post the graphs than try and embed the tweets.  Easier to look at it this way than the tweets are.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But it begins and ends with the fact that the Chiefs franchise values offense over defense.  Strategically their defense is expected to compliment what their offense is doing not as in the Bills case the other way around.  They do this because their head coach is offensive focused and he has one of the top 3 QB's in the NFL.  As a result the Chiefs act decisively to fix problems on their offense.  Reid sees Mahomes as his ticket to winning games on the back of his offense and acts accordingly.

 

The Bills are polar opposites with a defensive minded coach who sees having an elite QB as a way to free up even more resources for the defense. McD sees Allen as a ticket to having an effective offense without having to commit a lot of resources to it.  The role of the offense in McD's system is to compliment a defense that is expected to win games. This worked 20 years ago but not today. 

 

I mean, I don't really care about any of that.  I care that our offense has not performed to standards.  I don't care what EPA shows.  It has not performed to standards. They are not scoring for big chunks of the game.  Over the last 5 weeks this offense has not put up points.  Thats just a fact no matter what advanced metrics anyone wants to show, it won't change that.  The Bills need to do better.  If you don't see this offense as being bad over the last 5 weeks you are either blind or delusional.  (not saying you as in actually you.)

[Mikie2times]

10 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I mean, I don't really care about any of that.  I care that our offense has not performed to standards.  I don't care what EPA shows.  It has not performed to standards. They are not scoring for big chunks of the game.  Over the last 5 weeks this offense has not put up points.  Thats just a fact no matter what advanced metrics anyone wants to show, it won't change that.  The Bills need to do better.  If you don't see this offense as being bad over the last 5 weeks you are either blind or delusional.  (not saying you as in actually you.)

This board swings from Josh doesn't care, to gaslighting you if you think something is wrong. 

[HappyDays]

47 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Here is the epa using 10-90%.  As I understand it that is the value most people use.

 

 

I did not generate these.  It was from a cover 1 thread on twitter but it was easier to post the graphs than try and embed the tweets.  Easier to look at it this way than the tweets are.

 

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

2) 

 

Our offense is getting no help from the defense or special teams. This was especially true in the Bengals game for example. When we lose field position and time of possession that badly, even a decently efficient offense is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points.

 

To be clear I don't think our offense is performing as well as it could, but the efficiency stats are what they are. Everything has to be evaluated within the right framework of context.

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by HappyDays

[Mikie2times]

We have been outer world in EPA in the 4th quarter. Allen is 2nd in the NFL since week 5 at .298. Pickett is first at .353. Then third is a distant .195. We can see this. Our offense has come to life in the 4th quarter. 

 

We are not nearly as good in the first 3 quarters. Allen's ranking in EPA since week 5 is 14th in quarters 1-3.

 

 

Then when you look at the full year.

 

We generated a year worth of positive stats in two games. The rest of the games not so much.  This has a pretty big impact on his season totals but since it's only 2 games we don't see it as much when we watch the games. 

 

 

We can debate forever on who is responsible. That's not the purpose of this post. I'm talking about Josh a lot because Josh is everything. That in itself is a problem. We live and die with him. But to say that is going really well and nothing to see here, not really. It's not going really well. It's not hard to see that when you watch the games.  

Edited November 8, 2023 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We have been outer world in EPA in the 4th quarter. Allen is 2nd in the NFL since week 5 at .298. Pickett is first at .353. Then third is a distant .195. We can see this. Our offense has come to life in the 4th quarter. 

 

We are not nearly as good in the first 3 quarters. Allen's ranking in EPA since week 5 is 13th in quarters 1-3.

 

Yeah this is almost certainly why the eye test doesn't seem to match up with the analytics. We're generating a lot of the positive EPA/DVOA in the 4th quarter when trailing. But of course that production still counts.

 

To use the buzzword "complementary football," a big issue we're having as a team is that the offense and defense are faltering when the other side needs them to show up. The defense will hold teams out of the endzone for a few drives while the offense stumbles. Then when the offense finally puts it together and gets back into the game, the defense gives up a backbreaking game ending drive. This exact sequence happened at the end of our losses against the Jags, Pats, and now Bengals.

[Scott7975]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

 

Like I said in my post... I didn't generate these.  It was a thread on cover 1's twitter that I took them from.  It was more efficient to just post the pictures than embedded tweets of embedded tweets.  I posted them because there was a question about another posters tweets.  These are the accepted standard of metrics for EPA.  It still shows our offense is not up to par.

 

Thats part of the reason I don't like this stat.  You can make it say whatever bias you want it to.  The stat has it's place.  Showing our offense is fine is not one of them.  Overall, in the games for the last 5 weeks, our offense has not been fine.  It's been mostly avg or bad.  When I make that point and it's finally accepted because it can't be disputed, I get the "well the Chiefs are not doing well either."  I don't care.  Another team not doing well doesn't make our team suddenly better.  Our team is still not doing well.  I don't accept that average to bad offense is ok when we have an elite QB. 

 

And no, I do not think we had a lot of garbage time.  The games have been close enough to win at the end, so garbage time doesn't exist.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah this is almost certainly why the eye test doesn't seem to match up with the analytics. We're generating a lot of the positive EPA/DVOA in the 4th quarter when trailing. But of course that production still counts.

 

To use the buzzword "complementary football," a big issue we're having as a team is that the offense and defense are faltering when the other side needs them to show up. The defense will hold teams out of the endzone for a few drives while the offense stumbles. Then when the offense finally puts it together and gets back into the game, the defense gives up a backbreaking game ending drive. This exact sequence happened at the end of our losses against the Jags, Pats, and now Bengals.

Funny you said that, I was just looking at the splits based on the other data and it's pretty crazy.

 

Since Week 5

 

Quarters 1-3

Offensive EPA = 13th

Defensive EPA = 23rd

 

Quarter 4

Offensive EPA = 1st

Defensive EPA = 32nd

 

So the defense allows our sputtering offense to sort of hang around. As the game progresses, the defense tires. Then by the 4th quarter when the offense turns it on the defense is spent. This is at least my interpretation of what is happening. We seem to be getting crushed in TOP in the first 3 quarters but even during that time the defense can't get off the field. So it's not just the offense doing it. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

So the defense allows our sputtering offense to sort of hang around. As the game progresses, the defense tires. Then by the 4th quarter when the offense turns it on the defense is spent. This is at least my interpretation of what is happening. We seem to be getting crushed in TOP in the first 3 quarters. 

 

and that would be what the eye test actually shows.  Not some skewed "we are #3 in epa!!!!" crap.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Scott7975

[Toyo321]

EPA shows Dorsey has no clue on what works for this team.  He is a rotten tomato that needs to be squashed from this team ASAP.

 

If they would have stayed with a up tempo offense in the game against the Bengals they would have won that game.  The play calling and Josh's refusal to take what was open underneath was unreal.  Dorsey is not the answer because you can't be afraid to take what teams are giving you, and not to allowing Josh to improvise more when it is needed in certain moments of the game.  The offense is so predictable that watching the last 5 games, the plays are almost identical. We are not mixing it up at all, with real RPO or motion to disguise it from the other team.  If the average spectator can tell what kind of play Buffalo is going to run when they line up, don't you think the oposings DC is going to figure it out too.   There is zero creativity or cutting edge play design with Dorsey.  With Dorsey calling plays for this team this offense will never evolve.  The worst part of it Josh is not reading the field well at all this year.  Sure he makes some good throw's but he is still over throwing and throwing some balls with too much velocity that is excessive, especially when the pass requires more touch.

 

It has happened in every single game, and especially the last 5 games.

 

Dorsey is not the answer and because he is stagnant with his play calling as OC, we are F***** screwed, because McD will not axe this guy mid season.  

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

2) 

 

Our offense is getting no help from the defense or special teams. This was especially true in the Bengals game for example. When we lose field position and time of possession that badly, even a decently efficient offense is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points.

 

To be clear I don't think our offense is performing as well as it could, but the efficiency stats are what they are. Everything has to be evaluated within the right framework of context.

 

very good

 

and to be very clear- i am not saying the offense is performing great rn

 

im saying the issues w this team are more complex than offense sux

[CincyBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I mean, I don't really care about any of that.  I care that our offense has not performed to standards.  I don't care what EPA shows.  It has not performed to standards. They are not scoring for big chunks of the game.  Over the last 5 weeks this offense has not put up points.  Thats just a fact no matter what advanced metrics anyone wants to show, it won't change that.  The Bills need to do better.  If you don't see this offense as being bad over the last 5 weeks you are either blind or delusional.  (not saying you as in actually you.)

But what are the standards that an offense with an elite QB and one elite WR should set?  An offense that has a below average O line (maybe way below), skill players that are average at best (sure Kincaid is on an upwards trajectory), coaches that are not considered top of the line offensive minds and a franchise that is focused first on its defense? My expectations are that we're getting exactly what we built on offense.  

 

During the critical 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022 seasons in which the current Bills team was created the defense received the lions share of the draft & FA capitol.  During this time the Bills made ONLY ONE big move to improve their offense:  trading for Diggs which has been a home run. With the possible exception of Morse (who had concussion issues) EVERY offensive FA  signing has been a reach or an over the hill/back up player.  Ditto the draft where during those four years the Bills favored the D in a ridiculous way with the highest offensive picks being in round 2 in two of the four drafts.

 

Yes, the Bills started to change course this year and used a 1st & 2nd round to pick offensive guys. Kincaid looks on his way to being an elite play maker while Torrenze beat out the previous seasons starting guard.  Imagine how good our O would be today if we flipped the draft & FA signing over the last 4 years to favor the offense?

 

 

[Jauronimo]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

A couple things on this:

 

1) Careful with the win probability calculator in general. It isn't always entirely accurate IMO, and certainly not always instructive. To use one example that actually works in favor of your argument, removing >90% win probability eliminates pretty much the entire 2nd half of our Bucs game. I'm sure you agree our offense in the 2nd half was not sufficient and being >90% win probability was not a good excuse for most of that half. The same thing is happening in reverse when you remove <10% win probability. Using this formula, you would say for example the Patriots team that won the infamous 28-3 Super Bowl had an abysmal offense in that game.

 

TLDR: Don't confuse high/low win probability with garbage time. I don't think anyone would agree that we have played any measurable amount of garbage time over the past 4 weeks outside of end of game kneeldowns. If you disagree, let me know what garbage time you think we've played in recent weeks.

 

2) 

 

Our offense is getting no help from the defense or special teams. This was especially true in the Bengals game for example. When we lose field position and time of possession that badly, even a decently efficient offense is going to have trouble scoring a lot of points.

 

To be clear I don't think our offense is performing as well as it could, but the efficiency stats are what they are. Everything has to be evaluated within the right framework of context.

 

The offense could maintain drives and score points which would help with TOP.  They aren't doing our ***** defense any favors with 3 and outs and turning the ball over inside their own 30. 

 

It was a fine start to the season except for where Zach Wilson once again out dueled our franchise QB, but that team is no longer with us.  This current offense is middle of the pack at best.  When you have a supposed top 3 QB, that is completely unacceptable.

[T master]

On 11/7/2023 at 10:46 AM, Scott7975 said:

IMO (still) Dorsey is the problem

 

Edit: sorry @HappyDays I just noticed you posted this in the Dorsey thread.  I didn't see it because sometimes when I click a thread it skips a page or two that I haven't read yet.  Mods can delete if they want.

 

 

 

I had to quit watching every play there are other players sometimes multiple players open that Josh could hit and make better yards but he isn't seeing it or looking that way . Almost like he's locked on to that 1 route .

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, T master said:

 

I had to quit watching every play there are other players sometimes multiple players open that Josh could hit and make better yards but he isn't seeing it or looking that way . Almost like he's locked on to that 1 route .

Maybe turn the volume on and listen to what he says instead

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But what are the standards that an offense with an elite QB and one elite WR should set?  An offense that has a below average O line (maybe way below), skill players that are average at best (sure Kincaid is on an upwards trajectory), coaches that are not considered top of the line offensive minds and a franchise that is focused first on its defense? My expectations are that we're getting exactly what we built on offense.  

 

During the critical 2019, 2020, 2021 & 2022 seasons in which the current Bills team was created the defense received the lions share of the draft & FA capitol.  During this time the Bills made ONLY ONE big move to improve their offense:  trading for Diggs which has been a home run. With the possible exception of Morse (who had concussion issues) EVERY offensive FA  signing has been a reach or an over the hill/back up player.  Ditto the draft where during those four years the Bills favored the D in a ridiculous way with the highest offensive picks being in round 2 in two of the four drafts.

 

Yes, the Bills started to change course this year and used a 1st & 2nd round to pick offensive guys. Kincaid looks on his way to being an elite play maker while Torrenze beat out the previous seasons starting guard.  Imagine how good our O would be today if we flipped the draft & FA signing over the last 4 years to favor the offense?

 

 

 

Im all for getting better players and coaches but lets not act like we have the worst group in the league.  Our oline is at least average.  Davis is at least average. Kincaid is above average.  Shakir has caught and made plays with just about every ball thrown his way.  I don't know what he is but he is making the most of his opportunities. Cook is good. Josh and Diggs are elite.  I expect at least top 10.  Last season we had a bad game here and there but it wasn't this 5 game in a row ***** show and we had worse players.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Maybe turn the volume on and listen to what he says instead

 

Im all for getting better players and coaches but lets not act like we have the worst group in the league.  Our oline is at least average.  Davis is at least average. Kincaid is above average.  Shakir has caught and made plays with just about every ball thrown his way.  I don't know what he is but he is making the most of his opportunities. Cook is good. Josh and Diggs are elite.  I expect at least top 10.  Last season we had a bad game here and there but it wasn't this 5 game in a row ***** show and we had worse players.

I didn't say we had the worst group in the league but we do have the worst group among the legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

 

On offense, I would say the following contenders either have better skill players and/or a better O line then the Bills: Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengal's, Ravens, Lions, Jags, 49's, Dolphins. 

 

Now let's look at offensive coaching and franchise philosophy (where does the team put the majority o their FA & Draft capitol) which I believe go hand in hand.  These contenders are better then the Bills:  Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, 49's, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Jags, 49's.

 

 

[Scott7975]

6 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I didn't say we had the worst group in the league but we do have the worst group among the legitimate Super Bowl contenders. 

 

On offense, I would say the following contenders either have better skill players and/or a better O line then the Bills: Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bengal's, Ravens, Lions, Jags, 49's, Dolphins. 

 

Now let's look at offensive coaching and franchise philosophy (where does the team put the majority o their FA & Draft capitol) which I believe go hand in hand.  These contenders are better then the Bills:  Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins, 49's, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Jags, 49's.

 

 

 

Not sure I agree with all that but its too early for me to argue.  I know its not actually early but my sleep schedule is all over the place so I just woke up.  I'll think about this later and come back.  I will start with the Bills skill players are way better than the Chiefs right now.  All those guys do is drop footballs and Kelce is old and was hobbled most of the season.  Dolphins have a couple guys and we have a couple guys.  Some of those olines are about the same.  Our QB is better than some of those QBs.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Scott7975

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/7/2023 at 1:20 PM, GoBills808 said:

 

Phew… they’re not winning but at least they have a good position on this chart.