Pokebball Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: DeSantis has to have one of the worst run campaigns I've ever seen. Aside from the fact the he appears to be completely unlikable to anyone who meets him in person, he has completely squandered all of the hype he had over the summer. Instead of making the case that Trump is the past and he is the future, he has run his campaign into the ground and is now agreeing to a stunt debate against someone who isn't even running. Can you imagine Trump, or Obama, or any serious candidate taking time from the campaign trail to debate someone who wasn't even running? It's so weird. Are you sure Newsom isn't running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Campaign has been a mess I wonder what changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Gregg said: Newsome's name is already out there. Everyone knows he is the worst Gov and has completely destroyed CA. He won reelection/beat back a recall with about 60% of the vote. Californians seem to like him! I don't, but I'm not a Californian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, BillStime said: I wonder what changed Wow that pic should be next to duplicitous in the dictionary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiGoose Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Pokebball said: Are you sure Newsom isn't running? He's not going to challenge Biden in the primary. He's trying to grow his profile and setting himself to run in the future or in the unlikely event that Biden ends up not running in 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 Just now, ChiGoose said: He's not going to challenge Biden in the primary. He's trying to grow his profile and setting himself to run in the future or in the unlikely event that Biden ends up not running in 2024. I would be surprised if Biden runs in 2024. 1. He will be dead. 2. He will be near death and receiving end of life hospice care. 3. The Dems will realize they can't "Weekend at Bernie's" him thru another 4 years and have him step down. 4. Nobody including many Dems wants Harris taking over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gregg said: I would be surprised if Biden runs in 2024. 1. He will be dead. 2. He will be near death and receiving end of life hospice care. 3. The Dems will realize they can't "Weekend at Bernie's" him thru another 4 years and have him step down. 4. Nobody including many Dems wants Harris taking over. On 4, imo they have to take the risk of sticking with her despite abysmal, well everything. Letting a middle aged white male leapfrog kammy, would expose the DEI facade as unprincipled pandering. it’s an interesting conundrum, and inevitable unintended consequence of overlooking qualifications to fill a quota. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 29 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: He's not going to challenge Biden in the primary. He's trying to grow his profile and setting himself to run in the future or in the unlikely event that Biden ends up not running in 2024. Why do you think Biden not running is unlikely? Are you saying 99% unlikely or 51% unlikely. I'd say it's closer to 51%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiGoose Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Pokebball said: Why do you think Biden not running is unlikely? Are you saying 99% unlikely or 51% unlikely. I'd say it's closer to 51%. I'm not an actuary so I'm not going to guess on how long the guy lives. But it appears that so long as he is alive, he is running. And so long as he is running, I would not expect there to be a serious contender in the primary. I will note that some people who actually have the background for this have concluded that it is more likely than not Biden lives through a second term (and therefore he should be expected to make it through the 2024 campaign): Long-lived rivals: actuaries say Biden and Trump are not too old for office Most Likely President Joe Biden Will Live Through A Second Term, Life Expectancy Data Show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: I'm not an actuary so I'm not going to guess on how long the guy lives. But it appears that so long as he is alive, he is running. And so long as he is running, I would not expect there to be a serious contender in the primary. I will note that some Ac who actually have the background for this have concluded that it is more likely than not Biden lives through a second term (and therefore he should be expected to make it through the 2024 campaign): Long-lived rivals: actuaries say Biden and Trump are not too old for office Most Likely President Joe Biden Will Live Through A Second Term, Life Expectancy Data Show Actuarially determined odds of living vs mental and physical ability? OK! I think you avoided my question. How confident are you in that Joe will run for reelection (not die)? Edited September 26, 2023 by Pokebball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiGoose Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Pokebball said: Actuarially determined odds of living vs mental and physical ability? OK! I think you avoided my question. How confident are you in that Joe will run for reelection (not die)? I'm not avoiding it. You're asking me to opine on something I have no experience and knowledge of. As I stated, actual actuaries seem to think there's a strong chance he's alive at the end of the next term, so we should expect he'll live to the election. If he's alive, he's running. People who know this stuff more than I do expect he'll be alive. Therefore, I think it's more likely than not that he runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 3 hours ago, ChiGoose said: DeSantis has to have one of the worst run campaigns I've ever seen. Aside from the fact the he appears to be completely unlikable to anyone who meets him in person, he has completely squandered all of the hype he had over the summer. Instead of making the case that Trump is the past and he is the future, he has run his campaign into the ground and is now agreeing to a stunt debate against someone who isn't even running. Can you imagine Trump, or Obama, or any serious candidate taking time from the campaign trail to debate someone who wasn't even running? It's so weird. OTOH, the Dems' campaign to have Trump be the front-runner and out-poll Joke has been a smashing success... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: I'm not avoiding it. You're asking me to opine on something I have no experience and knowledge of. As I stated, actual actuaries seem to think there's a strong chance he's alive at the end of the next term, so we should expect he'll live to the election. If he's alive, he's running. People who know this stuff more than I do expect he'll be alive. Therefore, I think it's more likely than not that he runs. You did opine saying, "or in the unlikely event that Biden ends up not running in 2024". I was asking why and what you meant when you stated unlikely. It's clear to me now that you meant his death. Edited September 26, 2023 by Pokebball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Irv said: Why is this debate even happening? This is a joke. Why would anybody watch a non-candidate for the WH debate an actual candidate? You can't make this stuff up. Biden is so far gone, he can't do a debate on his own? Pathetic. What a mess. The money is showing the normies the false dichotomy that will be 24, or 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irv Posted September 26, 2023 Author Share Posted September 26, 2023 37 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: I'm not avoiding it. You're asking me to opine on something I have no experience and knowledge of. As I stated, actual actuaries seem to think there's a strong chance he's alive at the end of the next term, so we should expect he'll live to the election. If he's alive, he's running. People who know this stuff more than I do expect he'll be alive. Therefore, I think it's more likely than not that he runs. Being alive and being able to carry out the duties of President are a big difference. Although that doesn't seem to have mattered for the last four years, with whoever is running the Executive Branch. Maybe it doesn't matter. A shovel of dirt could be President at this point. Probably do better. What a mess. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HomeskillitMoorman Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Irv said: Why is this debate even happening? This is a joke. Why would anybody watch a non-candidate for the WH debate an actual candidate? You can't make this stuff up. Biden is so far gone, he can't do a debate on his own? Pathetic. What a mess. I agreed until you said "actual candidate". On what planet is DeSantis an actual candidate? Dude's getting smoked every which way by Trump. But I agree that this debate is ultimately a meaningless one...but it is one from 2 non-candidates. Edited September 26, 2023 by HomeskillitMoorman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Pokebball said: I think you avoided my question. How confident are you in that Joe will run for reelection (not die)? Given that Hillary was hiding a horrific brain bleed (she almost fell getting into a car!) and apparently died in right after the election, I’d say Biden passed away in 2019. (You guys are easy to manipulate) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Given that Hillary was hiding a horrific brain bleed (she almost fell getting into a car!) and apparently died in right after the election, I’d say Biden passed away in 2019. (You guys are easy to manipulate) If you're talking about his brain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 41 minutes ago, Irv said: A shovel of dirt could be President at this point. I mean, I don’t like him, but let’s show a little respect for the Office of the 45th President of the United States. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted September 26, 2023 Share Posted September 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: I mean, I don’t like him, but let’s show a little respect for the Office of the 45th President of the United States. True. Now if he's said a shovel of shiit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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