When it comes to drafting a linebacker, is value in the eye of the beholder?

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

When it comes to next year's picks - we will have an extra 3rd. "Weak" class or not, if there is a position in need of addressing and a player that Beane values, I have no problem utilizing that extra 3rd now. Especially if it means getting the MLB he wants or missing out. But I'm not giving up anything more than one of our 3rds next season.

 

Good analysis on the LB's! I tend to agree that Trenton Simpson is a good fit for our Defense and Jack Campbell, not so much. But I think Drew Sanders fits as well. His comp from NFL.com is literally Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds, like Sanders coming out of College, was considered an athletic Pass Rusher. And he is who Beane targeted and selected. I don't think he'd pass on Sanders because he can also rush the passer.

 

I disagree on the trading future picks thing. I see your point but I want four of the top 100 players next year rather than 2 of the top 50 this year. 

 

On the linebacker thing I wasn't seeking to suggest that only one guy fits each scheme. It was just who I think best fits each style. I think any of the 3 could play in the Bills defense. They are just all gonna have their own strengths and weaknesses in doing so. 

[gjv]

It's sad that we are seeing Bills fans struggling to rationalize the selection of a player with a second or third-round grade in the first round because of need. Let's hope if Beane goes that route the draft gods are with him and the player turns out to be the stud linebacker we are all hoping for.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, but in the cases of JOK and Nakobe Dean their falls were due to Medical Issues. Nick Bolton had mid-1st Talent, but fell due to being undersized. 

JOK should bounce back this year. Woods was a disaster as a DC in every facet. His preference for light DTs resulted in a lot of injuries behind them. Schwartz won’t let that happen. 

[mjt328]

12 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

I agree.  Out of all positions on defense, Linebacker is probably the one that varies the most with scheme.

 

That's probably why so many Bills failed to see the value of Tremaine Edmunds. 

Too many are still caught-up in this idea of a traditional Middle Linebacker in the mold of Ray Lewis, Junior Seau or Mike Singletary.  They wanted a guy who could take-on blockers and plug the run.  His skillset was more about taking away the middle of the field in zone coverage.

 

Thanks for alerting me to NFL Draft Buzz.  I have never heard of that site, and it's the first I've seen with Jack Campbell rated in the top 32 picks.

Most have him in the 50-60 range, which is a late 2nd Round Pick.

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by mjt328

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Good analysis on the LB's! I tend to agree that Trenton Simpson is a good fit for our Defense and Jack Campbell, not so much. But I think Drew Sanders fits as well. His comp from NFL.com is literally Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds, like Sanders coming out of College, was considered an athletic Pass Rusher. And he is who Beane targeted and selected. I don't think he'd pass on Sanders because he can also rush the passer.

 

Not being that guy and not calling you out, but I see this a lot. This is one of those things that people believe, but it is simply not true. Tremaine was an off-ball inside stack backer at Tech, doing exactly what he was asked to do with us. Most projections thought he would become an effective blitzer over time, but he didn't. Some projections also felt that he could become an edge rusher if he bulked up a bit, a 3-4 olb. He was supposed to be a sideline-to-sideline rangy inside backer. A more creative defense could have likely gotten more out of him by using him as more of a chess piece.  

 

Sanders is a little different. He was recruited as an edge rusher and played there at Bama. Transfers to Arkansas and moves to the inside backer, but still comes off the edge sometimes. The comp, to me, comes more from the raw nature of their game and the athletic profile. Sanders will be a better rusher than Edmunds will ever be, Tremaine had more coverage skills at this point, and both had/have issues with misdirection and run fits in the box coming out. 

 

Simpson is similar to Sanders in that he was an edge rusher and nickel slot player for the last couple of years. This year was his only year playing in the box as a stack backer, so there is some of the same rawness in his game and some of those same issues. 

 

Campbell has way more experience in the box and is a pure inside linebacker whereas the other guys are projections. Campbell has also been doing it much longer so there is a lot more film to dissect and highlight his flaws. The other guys are more unknowns because there is only one year film on each in the box. 

 

 

 

Cambell is better in every single athletic measure than Sanders and he is bigger with shorter arms. Simpson is shorter than both, but more stocky than Sanders with longer arms, and the same weight. Simpson beats both in the 40 and vert. Cambell posted a ridiculous 3 cone. 

 

The original intent of the post is indeed true. Pick your flavor. I am happy with any of those three guys. They all bring different traits to the table. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Not being that guy and not calling you out, but I see this a lot. This is one of those things that people believe, but it is simply not true. Tremaine was an off-ball inside stack backer at Tech, doing exactly what he was asked to do with us. Most projections thought he would become an effective blitzer over time, but he didn't. Some projections also felt that he could become an edge rusher if he bulked up a bit, a 3-4 olb. He was supposed to be a sideline-to-sideline rangy inside backer. A more creative defense could have likely gotten more out of him by using him as more of a chess piece.  

 

Sanders is a little different. He was recruited as an edge rusher and played there at Bama. Transfers to Arkansas and moves to the inside backer, but still comes off the edge sometimes. The comp, to me, comes more from the raw nature of their game and the athletic profile. Sanders will be a better rusher than Edmunds will ever be, Tremaine had more coverage skills at this point, and both had/have issues with misdirection and run fits in the box coming out. 

 

Simpson is similar to Sanders in that he was an edge rusher and nickel slot player for the last couple of years. This year was his only year playing in the box as a stack backer, so there is some of the same rawness in his game and some of those same issues. 

 

Campbell has way more experience in the box and is a pure inside linebacker whereas the other guys are projections. Campbell has also been doing it much longer so there is a lot more film to dissect and highlight his flaws. The other guys are more unknowns because there is only one year film on each in the box. 

 

 

 

Cambell is better in every single athletic measure than Sanders and he is bigger with shorter arms. Simpson is shorter than both, but more stocky than Sanders with longer arms, and the same weight. Simpson beats both in the 40 and vert. Cambell posted a ridiculous 3 cone. 

 

The original intent of the post is indeed true. Pick your flavor. I am happy with any of those three guys. They all bring different traits to the table. 

I'm not happy with any of them at 27, but Simpson is the fella I prefer. I think he has the best chance to fill Tremaine's role over time.

[PBF81]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

I still can’t believe we drafted Terrell ******* Bernard. 
 

sigh

 

I still can't believe that we took him over Dean.  We'd be a much better team now has we taken Dean.  

 

 

[NewEra]

21 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I still can't believe that we took him over Dean.  We'd be a much better team now has we taken Dean.  

 

 

We didn’t.   Dean was taken 5 picks before Bernard iirc. I’m 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We didn’t.   Dean was taken 5 picks before Bernard iirc. I’m 

Correct, just checked. Dean went 83, Bernard 89.

[whorlnut]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

I still can’t believe we drafted Terrell ******* Bernard. 
 

sigh

Exactly. Misses like this are why we are having the conversation in the first place. It’s also why we are continuing to talk about improving the oline. The opportunity cost of reaching on bernard cost us another position. 

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We didn’t.   Dean was taken 5 picks before Bernard iirc. I’m 

 

Sorry, I meant over Cook, who's clearly a role-player.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sorry, I meant over Cook, who's clearly a role-player.  

 

 

I don't agree with you there. Cook has more potential than that. It's up to Dorsey to use him. Knox is a better TE than his numbers, as well. Player has to be given the opportunities to make the plays.

[John from Riverside]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

I still can’t believe we drafted Terrell ******* Bernard. 
 

sigh

It looks bad right now, but he was a rookie and you can’t really tell anything off the first year

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Sorry, I meant over Cook, who's clearly a role-player.  

 

 

Clearly a role player?  🙄 

Just now, John from Riverside said:

It looks bad right now, but he was a rookie and you can’t really tell anything off the first year

I can tell that he’ll never be a starting Mike. He’s Milanos replacement and Milano was extended.  He’ll be here longer than Bernard. 
 

but you’re right, anything can happen.  All depends on how badly this kid wants to become great and gain lots of strength.  

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Clearly a role player?  🙄 

I can tell that he’ll never be a starting Mike. He’s Milanos replacement and Milano was extended.  He’ll be here longer than Bernard. 
 

but you’re right, anything can happen.  All depends on how badly this kid wants to become great and gain lots of strength.  

He doesn’t look like a starting mic to me either unless they’re planning on changing up the defense in some kind of way
 

We have seen defenses play with smallish linebackers in the NFL. I’m pretty sure the Tampa Bay buccaneers do this.

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't agree with you there. Cook has more potential than that. It's up to Dorsey to use him. Knox is a better TE than his numbers, as well. Player has to be given the opportunities to make the plays.

For sure.  The role player that averaged 5.7 ypc as a rookie.  

 

Meanwhile, Dean had 2 games in which he had more than 3 snaps on D.  He couldn’t get on the field.  Bernard had more snaps than him.  
 

that said, I like Dean a lot more than Bernard….. but the better move would’ve been to trade up 6 spots in rd 3 as opposed to drafting him in rd 2.  
 

 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

For sure.  The role player that averaged 5.7 ypc as a rookie.  

 

Meanwhile, Dean had 2 games in which he had more than 3 snaps on D.  He couldn’t get on the field.  Bernard had more snaps than him.  
 

that said, I like Dean a lot more than Bernard….. but the better move would’ve been to trade up 6 spots in rd 3 as opposed to drafting him in rd 2.  
 

 

Even if we don’t go middle linebacker with that first pic I just have a really hard time believing that they’re going to throw all of their eggs in the Benard basket we could still trade for a linebacker with another team

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

He doesn’t look like a starting mic to me either unless they’re planning on changing up the defense in some kind of way
 

We have seen defenses play with smallish linebackers in the NFL. I’m pretty sure the Tampa Bay buccaneers do this.

I don’t think McD will do this with Bernard and Milano….. unless Bernard puts on weight and improves dramaaaaaaatically

[nosejob]

I'm expecting surprises. Did we not learn anything last year? Sure Ed may have a good year, but in all likelihood someone will pay him stupid money next year.

I think Beane will take advantage of that during the draft....via trades. Let me dream a little....

 

rd.1.pick 27  Calijah Kancey DT

rd.2  Trade  Oliver to his hometown Houston for 33, 73 and 188. We could throw in a late 2024 if need be.

rd.2 pick 33 Jack Campbell

 

Trade: 59, 91 and 205 to Seattle for no. 37

rd. 2 Steve Avila (played C 2021, G 2022 and has played at both G spots)

 

rd.3 pick 73 Isaiah Foskey Edge   He can be listed and lined up at OLB while providing pass rush and or used at DE depending on Von's near and distant future.

 

rd.4 pick 130 BPA

rd.5 pick 137 BPA

rd.6 pick 188 BPA

 

I may have screwed up somewhere but all the trades were to teams with 2 picks in said rds. Flame away

Edited April 14, 2023 by nosejob

[SoCal Deek]

With teams building their rosters from many different sources these days the only criteria I put on our first, and maybe second, round draft picks is that they be players who will play…immediately and often. Period.