Mixed In With Poor Play Luck Has Not Been On Our Side In Losses

[corta765]

Last year the Bills had a superb record in one score games going 5-1 in games decided by 8 pts or less (I did 8 because a TD can get a 2 pt conversion) with the only blemish being a freakin Hail Mary, so almost a perfect 6-0. This year in their 5 wins Buffalo has been averaging in victory at least 15 pts or more in point differential to their opponent, but all three losses have been one score affairs where a break here in each one swings it and we just didn't get it. Additionally last year was superb on 4th downs and this year they have been crap. Here is a look at how close things have been:

 

PIT: The block punt for TD. Without that it is 16-16. Additionally the Bills themselves came within a whisker of a block punt for a TD. Both fourth down calls were failures in this game.

 

TEN: The obvious big play is the failed fourth down conversion at the end. Last year that is a TD, this year luck just wasn't our fortune there. Additionally the Titans on 4th and 2 themselves converted a 15 yard play to AJ Brown on a drive that put the Titans back up 24-23.

 

JAX: Two plays stuck out to me as the killers of victory. The fumble by Allen when they were in FG range to tie and the drop by Davis who had twenty yards of pavement in front to put the Bills in position for a tie if not TD to win. Regardless of how bad Buffalo had played both of those plays were major negatives that straight up didn't go our way.

 

0-3 in one score games a year after going 5-1. Last year remember in the one score wins we did benefit against the Rams on a PI call on 4th down, in interception against the Jets late in that game, and the forced fumble by Zimmer against NE. Football is a game of averages in many respects the breaks we caught last year haven't went our way this year regardless of how well or bad Buffalo has played. The Titans game to me was the Rams all over where the offense did fine, our defense just ran out of gas except this year we ended up on the wrong end. The Jets game last year felt very similar to the Jags except the Jags game we turned the ball over too much taking away points and the two big plays we could've used went against us. 

 

If you read this and say "even so they have issues and I have major concerns" that's cool I get that no qualms. If Buffalo won even one of those three games I think fans feel better about the team even if we still lost to Jax. The combo of the three with bad fortune just stinks. To me though Buffalo is due a game and odds are they will get one where instead it goes our way when a part of the team or the entire team isn't having their best day.

Edited November 9, 2021 by corta765

[Freddie's Dead]

There were bigger plays.  4 dropped INT's, two by Edmunds, and two by Tre'.  I noticed that no one was saying Tre' couldn't make the big play and that the Bills should move on from him....

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

There were bigger plays.  4 dropped INT's, two by Edmunds, and two by Tre'.  I noticed that no one was saying Tre' couldn't make the big play and that the Bills should move on from him....

 

Don't disagree which is why I said this year we are getting the opposite of good fortune. Odds are they will get some luck back in a game or two, but good fortune hides sometimes what would be bad or very disappointing losses.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

There were bigger plays.  4 dropped INT's, two by Edmunds, and two by Tre'.  I noticed that no one was saying Tre' couldn't make the big play and that the Bills should move on from him....

well thats what happens when you've made numerous game sealing plays through your first 4 season. i see what you're trying to do here. it just wasnt a very good comparison.

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

 

Don't disagree which is why I said this year we are getting the opposite of good fortune. Odds are they will get some luck back in a game or two, but good fortune hides sometimes what would be bad or very disappointing losses.

On my drive home from work last night i was thinking about this exact topic. The rolls just arent going their way this year.

[zow2]

Yep. That's why each new season has absolutely nothing to do with the previous season results.  Turnovers, injuries, untimely penalties (for us and opponents), special teams plays, luck involving bounce of the ball, missed FG's, missed 4th down conversions,  etc...  Just ask Miami fans about this.  They had an insane amount of good fortune and good finishes last year.  Similar team now but not getting similar results.

Edited November 9, 2021 by zow2

[corta765]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

On my drive home from work last night i was thinking about this exact topic. The rolls just arent going their way this year.

 

One of the things that defies good vs bad teams is seasons like this. Truthfully Buffalo deserved one of PIT/TEN/JAX just in percentage goes your way type thing and didn't, yet they are still 5-3 and ok at this moment. Bad teams don't get those wins AND they are 3-5 or 4-4 because they couldn't make up the difference. Sports are weird haha

[RoyBatty is alive]

Just now, Freddie's Dead said:

There were bigger plays.  4 dropped INT's, two by Edmunds, and two by Tre'.  I noticed that no one was saying Tre' couldn't make the big play and that the Bills should move on from him....

 Excellent observation.

 

I think wide receivers are going to try and get into Tre's head, I think he is easy to get agitated.   His personal foul was unnecessary.   There was a Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan that receivers could always getting going in an effort to get him to do something stupid.

[SoCal Deek]

You give the ball to your $250 million QB down by three and you come up empty. That’s not bad luck. That’s bad execution and performance! 

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

 Excellent observation.

 

I think wide receivers are going to try and get into Tre's head, I think he is easy to get agitated.   His personal foul was unnecessary.   There was a Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan that receivers could always getting going in an effort to get him to do something stupid.

no, its not really. Tre has made enough clutch plays and game sealers throughout the years that we know what we have in him. Freddies point wasnt a great one.

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Yep. That's why each new season has absolutely nothing to do with the previous season results.  Turnovers, injuries, untimely penalties (for us and opponents), special teams plays, luck involving bounce of the ball, missed FG's, missed 4th down conversions,  etc...  Just ask Miami fans about this.  They had an insane amount of good fortune and good finishes last year.  Similar team now but not getting similar results.

It was an absurd amount and its why i just couldnt bye into them coming into this season. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

no, its not really. Tre has made enough clutch plays and game sealers throughout the years that we know what we have in him. Freddies point wasnt a great one.

You have already posted this sentiment to Freddie's Dad, no reason to repeat it to mine.

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You give the ball to your $250 million QB down by three and you come up empty. That’s not bad luck. That’s bad execution and performance! 

 

I am not disagreeing. My point though was last year against the Jets the offense wasn't great there but they got a catch or play here. If Gabe Davis catches that pass and the Bills win 13-9 the conversation is different right now the same way the win over the Jets become a non thing despite only getting 18. This season the breaks are not falling their way AND mixed with bad play it is biting them hard.

 

I 100% agree the execution and performance was awful.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

The entire team was undisciplined and out of control at times Sunday…. A really bad reflection of McD and the coaching staff.

 

The last time I can remember the Bills so thoroughly off was McD's first season when they hit that 0-3 stretch. It is very odd to see them so uncomposed.

[Stank_Nasty]

17 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

You have already posted this sentiment to Freddie's Dad, no reason to repeat it to mine.

Well it apparently didnt sink in the first time i pointed it out.

Edited November 9, 2021 by Stank_Nasty

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

you apparently didnt grasp it enough to understand the first time.

haha.  What are you, seeking an argument?  Pathetic.  Just because I disagree with your opinion doesn't mean I don't understand what you were implying. 

 

I have no desire to continue this dialogue with you.

[BillnutinHouston]

If you are considering the blocked punt against the Steelers and dropped INTs as incidences where luck was involved, I think your thesis is flawed.  I consider those execution flaws, not bad luck.

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

Last year the Bills had a superb record in one score games going 5-1 in games decided by 8 pts or less (I did 8 because a TD can get a 2 pt conversion) with the only blemish being a freakin Hail Mary, so almost a perfect 6-0. This year in their 5 wins Buffalo has been averaging in victory at least 15 pts or more in point differential to their opponent, but all three losses have been one score affairs where a break here in each one swings it and we just didn't get it. Additionally last year was superb on 4th downs and this year they have been crap. Here is a look at how close things have been:

 

PIT: The block punt for TD. Without that it is 16-16. Additionally the Bills themselves came within a whisker of a block punt for a TD. Both fourth down calls were failures in this game.

 

TEN: The obvious big play is the failed fourth down conversion at the end. Last year that is a TD, this year luck just wasn't our fortune there. Additionally the Titans on 4th and 2 themselves converted a 15 yard play to AJ Brown on a drive that put the Titans back up 24-23.

 

JAX: Two plays stuck out to me as the killers of victory. The fumble by Allen when they were in FG range to tie and the drop by Davis who had twenty yards of pavement in front to put the Bills in position for a tie if not TD to win. Regardless of how bad Buffalo had played both of those plays were major negatives that straight up didn't go our way.

 

0-3 in one score games a year after going 5-1. Last year remember in the one score wins we did benefit against the Rams on a PI call on 4th down, in interception against the Jets late in that game, and the forced fumble by Zimmer against NE. Football is a game of averages in many respects the breaks we caught last year haven't went our way this year regardless of how well or bad Buffalo has played. The Titans game to me was the Rams all over where the offense did fine, our defense just ran out of gas except this year we ended up on the wrong end. The Jets game last year felt very similar to the Jags except the Jags game we turned the ball over too much taking away points and the two big plays we could've used went against us. 

 

If you read this and say "even so they have issues and I have major concerns" that's cool I get that no qualms. If Buffalo won even one of those three games I think fans feel better about the team even if we still lost to Jax. The combo of the three with bad fortune just stinks. To me though Buffalo is due a game and odds are they will get one where instead it goes our way when a part of the team or the entire team isn't having their best day.

 

I do think good play tends to generate good luck, and poor play tends to generate bad luck.

 

Mostly bc when teams are playing well they are confident and fully engaged, and so players tend to be in position to take  advantage of luck. Poor play induces doubt and hesitation, and so players will tend to out of position or too slow to react in time and the bounce will go the other way. 

 

 

[Rubes]

[corta765]

17 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:

If you are considering the blocked punt against the Steelers and dropped INTs as incidences where luck was involved, I think your thesis is flawed.  I consider those execution flaws, not bad luck.

 

My point is more you are not going to go 5-1 every year in one score games and they had games last year they could've lost which they didn't play as well. If they lost to the Rams everyone would've been fuming, we only view it as a good game because we won.

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

My point is more you are not going to go 5-1 every year in one score games and they had games last year they could've lost which they didn't play as well. If they lost to the Rams everyone would've been fuming, we only view it as a good game because we won.

But isn’t that the very nature of the NFL! If the game is on the line (and it usually is) and you just need a field goal to tie, especially against a terrible opponent, your star QB is supposed to get you there! Ben did it last night for the Steelers. Brady will do virtually every time. So will Rodgers. That’s what you’re paying for. 

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

But isn’t that the very nature of the NFL! If the game is on the line (and it usually is) and you just need a field goal to tie, especially against a terrible opponent, your star QB is supposed to get you there! Ben did it last night for the Steelers. Brady will do virtually every time. So will Rodgers. That’s what you’re paying for. 

I don’t know how it breaks down by QB, but one of the predictive stats for season win totals is mean regression for teams with either a high or low win% in one score games the year prior…over the course of a regular season games decided by 8 points or fewer are a 50/50 proposition, statistically. Meaning basically there’s no real correlation from season to season of a team’s ability to win close games.

[corta765]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don’t know how it breaks down by QB, but one of the predictive stats for season win totals is mean regression for teams with either a high or low win% in one score games the year prior…over the course of a regular season games decided by 8 points or fewer are a 50/50 proposition, statistically. Meaning basically there’s no real correlation from season to season of a team’s ability to win close games.

 

Exactly. While I get wanting your QB to lead game winning drives 24/7, you can't pick the good games your QB has and what your opponent does. Until this week Allen was #1 for MVP in betting because he played well. Seems weird to jump ship that fast as a fan anger wise

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, corta765 said:

Exactly. While I get wanting your QB to lead game winning drives 24/7, you can't pick the good games your QB has and what your opponent does. Until this week Allen was #1 for MVP in betting because he played well. Seems weird to jump ship that fast as a fan anger wise

No matter what Allen has done, there will always be those who are quick to blame him for everything. A lot of people do that for QB's anyways, but it is compounded for Josh Allen for some reason.

The QB does touch the ball on every offensive play, so he is the single biggest factor to wins and losses, in my opinion. I know everyone likes to throw around that "wins are not a QB stat" but I think that is an oversimplification. Of course QB's contribute tremendously to wins and losses. But it isn't all on them, and when your oline can't block, it makes everything infinitely more difficult for the QB to manage.

[SoCal Deek]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don’t know how it breaks down by QB, but one of the predictive stats for season win totals is mean regression for teams with either a high or low win% in one score games the year prior…over the course of a regular season games decided by 8 points or fewer are a 50/50 proposition, statistically. Meaning basically there’s no real correlation from season to season of a team’s ability to win close games.

That’s not the same thing. You cannot look at a close final score and say the star QB had the ball in his hands when the clock ran out. Sometimes the losing team gets a late practically meaningless score. Other times the winning team has the ball and don’t need to do anything but sit on it. On Sunday, the Bills were behind, they knew what they needed to do and they failed…against a poor opponent. Call it whatever you want but this is NOT a case of ‘bad luck’ or ‘breaks’ going against them. They just failed. 

Edited November 9, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s not the same thing. You cannot look at a close final score and say the star QB had the ball in his hands when the clock ran out. Sometimes the losing team gets a late practically meaningless score. Other times the winning team has the ball and don’t need to do anything but sit on it. On Sunday, the Bills were behind, they knew what they needed to do and they failed…against a poor opponent. Call it whatever you want but this is NOT a case of ‘bad luck’ or ‘breaks’ going against them. They just failed. 

And I'm saying unless you have evidence to the contrary, I'm not aware of any teams being particularly more or less adept than others at 'knowing what they need to do and failing (or succeeding)' over time.

[corta765]

16 hours ago, MJS said:

No matter what Allen has done, there will always be those who are quick to blame him for everything. A lot of people do that for QB's anyways, but it is compounded for Josh Allen for some reason.

The QB does touch the ball on every offensive play, so he is the single biggest factor to wins and losses, in my opinion. I know everyone likes to throw around that "wins are not a QB stat" but I think that is an oversimplification. Of course QB's contribute tremendously to wins and losses. But it isn't all on them, and when your oline can't block, it makes everything infinitely more difficult for the QB to manage.

 

I would also add that Josh has proven over the last few years he is very capable and dependable at winning games, this year it just hasn't gone our way as the Titans and Jags he came up short. It happens. I know people idolize Brady or Rodgers etc.. but they have not won every game in their career and successfully comeback every time.