League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up

[JGMcD2]

I put this together about 2 months ago, but with the season over and AV now updated, I figured it would be a good time to revisit. I agree with a lot of the posters saying that we're missing pieces. Of course we are, but I'm tired of the assertions that we need to draft better. We've objectively been THE BEST drafting team in the NFL from 2017-2019. I don't feel comfortable using a 1 year sample from 2020 just yet, but truthfully at this point it will drop the Bills 1 MAYBE 2 spots overall (I haven't had the chance to break it all down yet, but I will update when I do). 

 

I know people are going to try and rip this to shreds as stupid, but I have read numerous articles using AV as a way to compare draft classes. Many on The Athletic, like this article where they evaluate the Saints 2017 draft class using AV (my original analysis was done almost 3 weeks prior to this coming out, and yes it reflects the Saints having the best draft class in 2017 by a wide margin).

 

Here is my methodology from the original post...

 

Nobody really had a great way to measure success in the draft outside of their perception of a player... I wanted to make an attempt at examining this objectively. Pro Football Reference has their Weighted Approximate Value which assigns a value to a player based on their performance. It's not an all encompassing stat like WAR is in baseball, it definitely has its flaws, but PFR said it's steady to use to measure draft success. I'm going to dive into the results below on the draft, as well as some analysis I have done of the FA signings. Nothing is really over the top, I'm going to take some feedback and try to refine this. I had to do a lot of it by hand in excel and couldn't just scrape everything because different pieces were all over.

 

I chose 2017 specifically because that is when Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived. Some folks want to argue that Beane shouldn't get credit for that draft and FA, which is perfectly fine. I am in the camp that believes McDermott and Beane are in lockstep, they make up the upper management of the football department, therefore the decisions made since 2017 have been made with certain goals in mind. I don't feel the need to omit 2017 because it was scrambled, it's very clear these two are close and the decisions made were made by McBeane in some way, shape or form starting in 2017. 

 

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

 

Yes, I agree that they're missing something, but this constant assertion that this regime are "average drafters" or that we "have too many busts" is flat out wrong. You are only good or bad by comparison, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. 

 

They've extracted more value than any other team in the league over their first 3 years in the NFL. This will continue to change as players perform, but right now they have a clearly performed well drafting. It's not even debatable, Buffalo, New Orleans and Baltimore have been far and away the best drafting teams in the NFL from 2017-2019.

 

Do we need more impact players? Yes, every team does and actively seeks them out. But this notion that we don't draft well is garbage, complete and utter garbage. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[JGMcD2]

Sad but expected that none of the negative Nancy posters are willing to even comment. 

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Smells like heat maps... 

What’s wrong with heat maps? 
 

I work in MLB and they’re used heavily in advanced scouting... 

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Sad but expected that none of the negative Nancy posters are willing to even comment. 

Who are these players?  You’ve got White and Allen who are stars and a bunch of JAGs.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Who are these players?  You’ve got White and Allen who are stars and a bunch of JAGs.

Then what do other teams have if we’re extracting more value than them? 

[Big Turk]

What about 2020 AV?

 

Impressive the Bills are in the top 5 all three years but even more impressive they are the only team in there more than once.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Big Turk

[Billl]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

Then what do other teams have if we’re extracting more value than them? 

So...not going to list any names?

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

What about 2020 AV?

It’s included. This is just Total Career Net AV and Total Career Net Drafted AV. 
 

It’s all baked in there, so for the 2017 draft class it takes into account 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. It operates the same for 2018 and 2019. 
 

I had done this before 2020 drafted players had their AV calculated, but 2017-2019 I updated to include their 2020 season. 

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

So...not going to list any names?

What names do I need to list?

 

It’s publicly available information. Go to Wikipedia, NFL.com or Pro Football Reference. 

 

Stop acting like I’m hiding who teams took in the draft from 2017-2019. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billl]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

White, Allen, Diggs are stars. Beasley is borderline. Everyone else is solid or a JAG. 

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s included. This is just Total Career Net AV and Total Career Net Drafted AV. 
 

It’s all baked in there, so for the 2017 draft class it takes into account 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020. It operates the same for 2018 and 2019. 
 

I had done this before 2020 drafted players had their AV calculated, but 2017-2019 I updated to include their 2020 season. 

What names do I need to list?

 

It’s publicly available information. Go to Wikipedia, NFL.com or Pro Football Reference. 

 

Stop acting like I’m hiding who teams took in the draft from 2017-2019. 

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

[Southern_Bills]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

So you honestly think Edmunds and Oliver are worth no more than a 4th? Dawkins? Milano? Davis? These guys are not all pros I understand that, but you act like they wouldn't even touch the field for another team.

[JGMcD2]

23 minutes ago, Billl said:

Diggs and Beasley weren’t drafted by the Bills.

I’m asking what players the Bills drafted between 2017 and 2019 that have provided enough value to even justify their draft position.  I count two.  I don’t know if there’s another player taken during that time who would return more than maybe a 4th rounder if they were traded today.

I mean here...

 

 

But you're missing the point, you may feel like they're not extracting enough value... but they're extracting more than everyone else in the league.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[y2zipper]

The point here is that White Allen Edmunds, Milano, and Dawkins is better than most teams have done the past 3 years. 2019 stands out is not quite as good as the other classes, but Buffalo's 2020 class has proven to be really good so far. It just takes more time to stack the roster.

 

To get to a spot where Kansas City is, you still have to add about another 3 or 4 years of extracting value and buffalo drafted incredibly poorly from 2014 to 2016. Kansas City drafted Eric Fisher and Travis kelce in 2013, for example.

 

[JGMcD2]

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

The point here is that White Allen Edmunds, Milano, and Dawkins is better than most teams have done the past 3 years. 2019 stands out is not quite as good as the other classes, but Buffalo's 2020 class has proven to be really good so far. It just takes more time to stack the roster.

 

To get to a spot where Kansas City is, you still have to add about another 3 or 4 years of extracting value and buffalo drafted incredibly poorly from 2014 to 2016. Kansas City drafted Eric Fisher and Travis kelce in 2013, for example.

 

All I am trying to do is put context around their draft. I can't stand people just yelling "they're average drafters" or "below average drafters." Well let's try and find a way to measure that and I think this does a good (albeit not perfect) job of objectively measuring how well the Bills have done in each draft compared to their peers. 

 

You hit the nail on the head, Andy Reid has had 8 years to build the team that he has now. He's had 8 drafts to find impact players. They have Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and Jones who they've drafted over those 8 years with a bunch of other contributors sprinkled in. 

 

McBeane has had 4 drafts and they have White, Allen and Dawkins (I won't include Edmunds because he's controversial) with a bunch of other contributors they've selected themselves as well.

 

You have to look through the lens of what the league has done, they can't be good or bad without being compared to their peers. 

 

I'd tell you this analysis was crap, but if you look closely it makes sense. 8/10 top drafting teams from 2017-2020 were in the playoffs this year!!

 

The two that missed were LAC (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with coaching issues) and SFO (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with injury issues). Chicago and Washington are teams who are a QB away from being seriously competitive teams. On top of that, look at some of the worst drafting teams! NE, CIN, DEN, OAK, NYJ. Those teams all missed the playoffs. Only 2 of the 10 worst drafting teams managed to make the playoffs - CLE and GB. Everyone who is arguing we draft poorly is doing so because they believe that you have to draft well to have success. This supports that.

 

It's not perfect, but the results make sense.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

What about 2020 AV?

 

Impressive the Bills are in the top 5 all three years but even more impressive they are the only team in there more than once.

 

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

 

[y2zipper]

15 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

All I am trying to do is put context around their draft. I can't stand people just yelling "they're average drafters" or "below average drafters." Well let's try and find a way to measure that and I think this does a good (albeit not perfect) job of objectively measuring how well the Bills have done in each draft compared to their peers. 

 

You hit the nail on the head, Andy Reid has had 8 years to build the team that he has now. He's had 8 drafts to find impact players. They have Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and Jones who they've drafted over those 8 years with a bunch of other contributors sprinkled in. 

 

McBeane has had 4 drafts and they have White, Allen and Dawkins (I won't include Edmunds because he's controversial) with a bunch of other contributors they've selected themselves as well.

 

You have to look through the lens of what the league has done, they can't be good or bad without being compared to their peers. 

 

I'd tell you this analysis was crap, but if you look closely it makes sense. 8/10 top drafting teams from 2017-2020 were in the playoffs this year!!

 

The two that missed were LAC (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with coaching issues) and SFO (regarded as one of the most talented rosters in all of football but dealt with injury issues). Chicago and Washington are teams who are a QB away from being seriously competitive teams. Everyone who is arguing we draft poorly is doing so because they believe that you have to draft well to have success. This supports that.

 

It's not perfect, but the results make sense.

 

It's definitely a very good attempt at context and makes the results make sense to me, too. The only weird one for me is New Orleans, but that isn't a team that I watch a whole lot closely because of where I live.

 

Largely Buffalo fell short is that when they change their defensive line rotation the players they signed to play those positions didn't work out very well.

 

So in my mind I'm also thinking that the value of the quarterback position sort of tilts that towards teams that drafted Herbert and Burrow so you'd expect to see those teams at the top of a draft value chart for 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

[Billl]

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Adding the 2020 Draft here... still extracted value in the top third of the league in this draft, although it's a top 10 draft and not a top 5 draft. Usual suspects like IND and BAL hovering around the top.

 

Including updated cumulative totals from 2017-2020... Bills still in the lead. Sorted by the TOT_NETAV, which is the value that the team directly benefits from (they're on top in either category though). 

 

This is a terrible metric.  Buffalo is 4 spots ahead of Minnesota who wouldn’t trade Jefferson for the entire Buffalo draft class.  Kansas City wouldn’t trade their 4th round pick for Buffalo’s entire draft class.  The Bills’ class could still turn out to be great, but the only player who’s shown anything is Davis.

[JGMcD2]

13 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

 

It's definitely a very good attempt at context and makes the results make sense to me, too. The only weird one for me is New Orleans, but that isn't a team that I watch a whole lot closely because of where I live.

 

Largely Buffalo fell short is that when they change their defensive line rotation the players they signed to play those positions didn't work out very well.

 

So in my mind I'm also thinking that the value of the quarterback position sort of tilts that towards teams that drafted Herbert and Burrow so you'd expect to see those teams at the top of a draft value chart for 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orleans has 2 top 10 drafts here, but also a bottom 2 draft. They had had arguably one of the best drafts in NFL history in 2017 which propels them to the top, but when you pretty much hit on an entire draft you can get away with a lot.

 

Good point with QBs.

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

This is a terrible metric.  Buffalo is 4 spots ahead of Minnesota who wouldn’t trade Jefferson for the entire Buffalo draft class.  Kansas City wouldn’t trade their 4th round pick for Buffalo’s entire draft class.  The Bills’ class could still turn out to be great, but the only player who’s shown anything is Davis.

I’m sorry you don’t understand. You can scroll back up to read and understand how it works, or I encourage you to devise another way to objectively measure draft classes.

 

All it’s showing you is that Minnesota hit on Jefferson and didn’t do anything else with their picks. Same with KC and Snead.

 

Buffalo might not have gotten 1 impact player but they managed to find multiple contributors. It rewards you for finding value.

 

I also made it clear it’s better to have a few more years to get a more accurate reflection of the class, although because it’s in comparison to its own class and production it’s a little more stable.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

We are good at drafting contributors. We do need to be better at drafting stars. Especially since the arrival of Beane as GM.

 

Three of the top 5 picks even by your own methodology are White, Dawkins and Milano - McDermott picks. 

 

Anyone saying the Bills are bad drafters is wrong. But Beane needs to hit on stars. We saw it last night. KC out "star" us 6-3 and 5 of their stars made game changing plays and Mathieu while not having a signature play was everywhere on defense. 

 

That is the problem with the methodology. I agree it paints a picture but it doesn't finish off all the colouring. Because you could have a whole roster of guys who score between +2.5 and +10 and you'd have next to no chance of winning a Championship. And Matt Milano is the highest scorer by the methodology. Matt Milano. Very good football player drafted in the 5th round so +20.6. That is by any reckoning a good pick. But you ain't winning a championship with a team full of Matt Milanos either. Not unless you have a handful of stars scattered in. 

 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

I mean here...

 

 

But you're missing the point, you may feel like they're not extracting enough value... but they're extracting more than everyone else in the league.

 

The Bills in 2017 traded down for future capital and still got three high end starting caliber players including an All-Pro in Tre and good players in Dawkins and Milano, in 2018 they found a franchise QB and two defensive starters (Edumonds and T.Johnson) and Phillips still has a chance to pan out as he was looking good before his injury (Neal also has been solid depth.) And Teller and Ray Ray have caught on with other teams meaning that literally almost every pick in 2018 was a talented player. 

 

2019 featured Ed who is a quality starter and possible starters/role players in Ford, Knox and Singletary. How much better could these drafts realistically be? Constantly getting 3+ starters and role players is nothing to sneeze at.

[JGMcD2]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We are good at drafting contributors. We do need to be better at drafting stars. Especially since the arrival of Beane as GM.

 

Three of the top 5 picks even by your own methodology are White, Dawkins and Milano - McDermott picks. 

 

Anyone saying the Bills are bad drafters is wrong. But Beane needs to hit on stars. We saw it last night. KC out "star" us 6-3 and 5 of their stars made game changing plays and Mathieu while not having a signature play was everywhere on defense. 

 

That is the problem with the methodology. I agree it paints a picture but it doesn't finish off all the colouring. Because you could have a whole roster of guys who score between +2.5 and +10 and you'd have next to no chance of winning a Championship. And Matt Milano is the highest scorer by the methodology. Matt Milano. Very good football player drafted in the 5th round so +20.6. That is by any reckoning a good pick. But you ain't winning a championship with a team full of Matt Milanos either. Not unless you have a handful of stars scattered in. 

 

I do combine it into McBeane, we know they’re in lock step and we seem to have gotten even more clarity recently that McDermott still has some roster control. I agree though we have 3 stars that we’ve drafted IMO - White, Dawkins and Allen. Plus a 4th in Diggs. 
 

But you’re more than fair and someone brought it up in another post, but KC has had 8 years under Reid to find those impact players Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were all drafted prior to McBeane showing up in Buffalo... so 4+ years and KC didn’t win Super Bowl #1 until last year. That’s when it all came together.

 

This team right now is roughly where the Chiefs were when they added Mahomes - so close to putting it together and winning it all. Needed some more experience and a few more pieces. I understand the timeline with Allen is a little different, but the point I’m getting at is they’re not significantly lagging behind the Chiefs, they just need the same amount of time get everything settled, at this point they’re outpacing Reid.

Edited January 25, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

I do combine it into McBeane, we know they’re in lock step and we seem to have gotten even more clarity recently that McDermott still has some roster control. 
 

But you’re more than fair and someone brought it up in another post, but KC has had 8 years under Reid to find those impact players Chris Jones, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were all drafted prior to McBeane showing up in Buffalo... so 4+ years and KC didn’t win Super Bowl #1 until last year. That’s when it all came together.

 

And equally I think that is a fair riposte. Also two GMs through there in that time - Dorsey and then Veach so it isn't all one guy's work. 

 

Does it worry you at least a tad though that while 2018 was a great draft because we finally found the Franchise QB, in general terms the best draft of the regime is the one before the GM got here - White, Dawkins, Milano? Understand I am not anti-Brandon Beane I actually love listening to him I think he is genuinely one of the most honest and thoughtful speakers in the NFL when it comes to the art of roster construction and he has done a very good job here - being a GM is not just about drafting. He also holds himself accountable more publicly than almost anyone else in the league which assures me he is about bringing success here and not bolstering his ego or his CV. But to be a top rank drafter he does have to improve for me. Find those stars. 

[y2zipper]

The rebuttal here of course is that the 2020 class is very good and buffalo brought in a star with the first pick, even though it was a trade. I'm also not sure that anybody in the league is better at finding Stars than anybody else. 

 

Although I also think with the culture reaching maturity and the window being open that now is the time where you can take a chance or two on a character issue guy, which is not something this team could have even looked at over the past 3 years. This opens the door for bringing in some Stars from other teams whether it's through free agency or through trade. 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And equally I think that is a fair riposte. Also two GMs through there in that time - Dorsey and then Veach so it isn't all one guy's work. 

 

Does it worry you at least a tad though that while 2018 was a great draft because we finally found the Franchise QB, in general terms the best draft of the regime is the one before the GM got here - White, Dawkins, Milano? Understand I am not anti-Brandon Beane I actually love listening to him I think he is genuinely one of the most honest and thoughtful speakers in the NFL when it comes to the art of roster construction and he has done a very good job here - being a GM is not just about drafting. He also holds himself accountable more publicly than almost anyone else in the league which assures me he is about bringing success here and not bolstering his ego or his CV. But to be a top rank drafter he does have to improve for me. Find those stars. 

Fair point on KC, but Andy Reid does have full roster control and Veach has been with him since he arrived in KC. Dorsey and Veach both have significant say, but it’s the Andy Reid show. That’s why I don’t think it’s dishonest to use 8 years when referencing the Chiefs.

 

It doesn’t worry me at all. I personally believe that McDermott and Beane are as close to being one as you can be. I actually just came across this nugget when looking to confirm Reid’s full control... it is from when Beane was hired so I feel comfortable using the same methodology to combine Beane and McDermott’s drafts 2017-2020.

 

 “The Buffalo News has learned that the Bills’ model will pretty much replicate that of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ GM, John Dorsey, has a significant say in the assembling of the 53-man roster, but there is no mistaking that coach Andy Reid is in charge of the entire football operation and has final say. Besides the Bills and Chiefs, the only other team that has a coach calling the football shots for the organization is the New England Patriots, who do everything the Bill Belichick way.”

 

Sean let’s him handle the draft, but he has final say on the picks, much like in 2017. They’re both heavily involved in the process and executing the same plan. I am fairly certain the draft would have been nearly identical had Beane been brought in for 2017. The rumors about getting intel from Carolina in that draft don’t shock me at all. I agree with your assessment of Beane, he’s shown that he can take a swing for a star and connect. He took an absolute risk on the most important position and hit it out of the park, but he put his balls on the table there. Obviously McDermott had to approve but Beane had to say he was the guy as well.
 

Up to this point I do not think we’ve been in a position to take a swing for the fences very often. If you try to think about it from their perspective starting in 2017, they felt the need to gut the roster and also remain competitive, so they can’t swing for a star because if they miss, they don’t have enough contributors elsewhere to remain competitive. Then they took a risk with Josh, but couldn’t keep taking risks elsewhere for 2 reasons. 1) Josh needs all the steady support he can get to develop properly 2) If he doesn’t develop properly then you have solid contributors on the roster to plug a new QB into. If you don’t fill the roster with contributors in this phase you put yourself in a tough spot to readjust. Then he took another aggressive swing with his draft capital to acquire Diggs... because he felt like he needed to add a star. He’s not afraid to do it, but in my opinion he feels like he can’t do it all the time. Personally I feel like that’s the right approach, and I think we’re going to see him up the aggressiveness slightly, but not enough where he risks severely missing. 
 

I believe he’s been one of the best executives since being hired in 2017. I think he’s a safe drafter and can consistently find value, but for him to take the next step and the Bills to take the next step as well, he does need to take a few more swings. The good news is I think the organization is now in a position where it can support that. Whether it be a high ceiling/low floor guy, a character concern, a small school project, etc. I think the foundation now exists to support that.

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

I know McDermott has the final say. This is the Sean McDermott show, make no mistake. But he was undoubtedly more hands on that 2017 when he didn't trust the guys running it. He trusts Beane and crew totally. They are as you say 100% aligned. But so far the results in the draft while solid are not as good as when Sean was basically flying solo. 

 

Imtrigued to see what they do this year. While I don't think we have any huge holes we have a sneaky few needs and directions they could go in.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I know McDermott has the final say. This is the Sean McDermott show, make no mistake. But he was undoubtedly more hands on that 2017 when he didn't trust the guys running it. He trusts Beane and crew totally. They are as you say 100% aligned. But so far the results in the draft while solid are not as good as when Sean was basically flying solo. 

 

Imtrigued to see what they do this year. While I don't think we have any huge holes we have a sneaky few needs and directions they could go in.

Yes, I agree. As much as I’m sad we didn’t take advantage of a great opportunity this year to reach and potentially win the Super Bowl, I feel like yesterday’s loss is actually a good thing for us. 
 

As much as this regime has been running things better than pretty much every other organization, they still need to improve. This is going to force them to go back again and dig deep to fix these issues and plug the holes. The one thing that I think they’re actually “elite” at is fixing their mistakes and improving their decision making. 
 

I remember early on them saying this team was being constructed to beat the Patriots (with Brady), and they were so close last year. I think this year they got to that point and would’ve beat a Brady lead Pats team. The issue is, the measuring stick is no longer the division, it’s the conference. In the past that was the same thing with Brady at the helm, but now the conference runs through Mahomes. 
 

They need to construct a team to beat the Chiefs lead by Mahomes. McDermott’s comments along with a few players give me every indication they realize this and will do everything in their power to execute it. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

They need to construct a team to beat the Chiefs lead by Mahomes. McDermott’s comments along with a few players give me every indication they realize this and will do everything in their power to execute it. 

 

Yep. Said it numerous times today. Every personnel decision this season must be seen through the prism of "how does this help us to beat the Chiefs?" 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

 

 

Willing to bet our lack of a 1st round pick is why we aren't in the top 5 this year.

[Billl]

58 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

New Orleans has 2 top 10 drafts here, but also a bottom 2 draft. They had had arguably one of the best drafts in NFL history in 2017 which propels them to the top, but when you pretty much hit on an entire draft you can get away with a lot.

 

Good point with QBs.

I’m sorry you don’t understand. You can scroll back up to read and understand how it works, or I encourage you to devise another way to objectively measure draft classes.

 

All it’s showing you is that Minnesota hit on Jefferson and didn’t do anything else with their picks. Same with KC and Snead.

 

Buffalo might not have gotten 1 impact player but they managed to find multiple contributors. It rewards you for finding value.

 

I also made it clear it’s better to have a few more years to get a more accurate reflection of the class, although because it’s in comparison to its own class and production it’s a little more stable.

And again, it’s a terrible metric.  I don’t know enough about the rest of Minnesota’s draft class to say what the rest of the players have done, but Kansas City will be playing in the Super Bowl with the following rookies:

 

Clyde Edwards-Elaire:  Feature back with 1100 yards in 13 games

Willie Gay Jr.:  Starting LB

LaJarius Sneed:  Shutdown corner

Mike Danna:  Heavy rotational DE

Tershawn Wharton:  Heavy rotational DT

Tommy Townsend: Punter

 

That’s a tremendous amount of value, especially considering that they had the last pick in the draft and their third round pick opted out for COVID.  Any metric that says that the Bills class of Davis, a K, and a bunch of players who could barely sniff the field provided more value is invalid, IMO.  (And I say that as someone who wanted Epenesa in the draft.)  

 

I just don’t know that Beane has drafted a player other than Allen who the team can look at and say that the position is locked down for 5 years.  Milano is probably the closest, but even then you’re talking about a rotational coverage linebacker.  However you spin it, Beane is going to need to do better in the draft if he’s going to put a championship caliber roster around a $40,000,000+ QB.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

And again, it’s a terrible metric.  I don’t know enough about the rest of Minnesota’s draft class to say what the rest of the players have done, but Kansas City will be playing in the Super Bowl with the following rookies:

 

Clyde Edwards-Elaire:  Feature back with 1100 yards in 13 games

Willie Gay Jr.:  Starting LB

LaJarius Sneed:  Shutdown corner

Mike Danna:  Heavy rotational DE

Tershawn Wharton:  Heavy rotational DT

Tommy Townsend: Punter

 

That’s a tremendous amount of value, especially considering that they had the last pick in the draft and their third round pick opted out for COVID.  Any metric that says that the Bills class of Davis, a K, and a bunch of players who could barely sniff the field provided more value is invalid, IMO.  (And I say that as someone who wanted Epenesa in the draft.)  

 

I just don’t know that Beane has drafted a player other than Allen who the team can look at and say that the position is locked down for 5 years.  Milano is probably the closest, but even then you’re talking about a rotational coverage linebacker.  However you spin it, Beane is going to need to do better in the draft if he’s going to put a championship caliber roster around a $40,000,000+ QB.

Correct.

 

But Beane didn't draft Milano or Tre. McD did.

 

We've seen this movie with Doug Whaley. He drafted decent rotational guys, but never could get starts. Even worse when they were always picking like top 8.

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

And again, it’s a terrible metric.  I don’t know enough about the rest of Minnesota’s draft class to say what the rest of the players have done, but Kansas City will be playing in the Super Bowl with the following rookies:

 

Clyde Edwards-Elaire:  Feature back with 1100 yards in 13 games

Willie Gay Jr.:  Starting LB

LaJarius Sneed:  Shutdown corner

Mike Danna:  Heavy rotational DE

Tershawn Wharton:  Heavy rotational DT

Tommy Townsend: Punter

 

That’s a tremendous amount of value, especially considering that they had the last pick in the draft and their third round pick opted out for COVID.  Any metric that says that the Bills class of Davis, a K, and a bunch of players who could barely sniff the field provided more value is invalid, IMO.  (And I say that as someone who wanted Epenesa in the draft.)  

 

I just don’t know that Beane has drafted a player other than Allen who the team can look at and say that the position is locked down for 5 years.  Milano is probably the closest, but even then you’re talking about a rotational coverage linebacker.  However you spin it, Beane is going to need to do better in the draft if he’s going to put a championship caliber roster around a $40,000,000+ QB.

So you tell me it’s a terrible metric, but you STILL don’t understand how it works. It’s based on the value on the board in the round that the player was drafted. 

 

You also don’t even have enough insight to tell me about a draft class you brought up specifically.

 

I never said it was perfect, I said it was better than what you’re doing above. Putting your own context on the Chiefs draft class. It takes subjectivity out of the equation and uses AV, a metric that‘s used by people who get paid to cover football, use to compare players. It goes a step further and shows how much value you’re extracting from the draft. 
 

I once again invite you to come up with a better way to objectively measure performance in the draft. 

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I put this together about 2 months ago, but with the season over and AV now updated, I figured it would be a good time to revisit. I agree with a lot of the posters saying that we're missing pieces. Of course we are, but I'm tired of the assertions that we need to draft better. We've objectively been THE BEST drafting team in the NFL from 2017-2019. I don't feel comfortable using a 1 year sample from 2020 just yet, but truthfully at this point it will drop the Bills 1 MAYBE 2 spots overall (I haven't had the chance to break it all down yet, but I will update when I do). 

 

I know people are going to try and rip this to shreds as stupid, but I have read numerous articles using AV as a way to compare draft classes. Many on The Athletic, like this article where they evaluate the Saints 2017 draft class using AV (my original analysis was done almost 3 weeks prior to this coming out, and yes it reflects the Saints having the best draft class in 2017 by a wide margin).

 

Here is my methodology from the original post...

 

Nobody really had a great way to measure success in the draft outside of their perception of a player... I wanted to make an attempt at examining this objectively. Pro Football Reference has their Weighted Approximate Value which assigns a value to a player based on their performance. It's not an all encompassing stat like WAR is in baseball, it definitely has its flaws, but PFR said it's steady to use to measure draft success. I'm going to dive into the results below on the draft, as well as some analysis I have done of the FA signings. Nothing is really over the top, I'm going to take some feedback and try to refine this. I had to do a lot of it by hand in excel and couldn't just scrape everything because different pieces were all over.

 

I chose 2017 specifically because that is when Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane arrived. Some folks want to argue that Beane shouldn't get credit for that draft and FA, which is perfectly fine. I am in the camp that believes McDermott and Beane are in lockstep, they make up the upper management of the football department, therefore the decisions made since 2017 have been made with certain goals in mind. I don't feel the need to omit 2017 because it was scrambled, it's very clear these two are close and the decisions made were made by McBeane in some way, shape or form starting in 2017. 

 

"Sometimes, for example if you want to assess a trade or determine the top draft classes of all time, you need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions and eras. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and they can do so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat exists. In most cases, people use "starter" or "number of years as a starter" or "number of pro bowls" as the metric when they have to compare across positions.

AV is intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in NFL history were." - Doug from PFR

 

The career AV is computed by summing 
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on 

 

What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

 

Yes, I agree that they're missing something, but this constant assertion that this regime are "average drafters" or that we "have too many busts" is flat out wrong. You are only good or bad by comparison, and they're better than the rest of the NFL. 

 

They've extracted more value than any other team in the league over their first 3 years in the NFL. This will continue to change as players perform, but right now they have a clearly performed well drafting. It's not even debatable, Buffalo, New Orleans and Baltimore have been far and away the best drafting teams in the NFL from 2017-2019.

 

Do we need more impact players? Yes, every team does and actively seeks them out. But this notion that we don't draft well is garbage, complete and utter garbage. 

Fantastic. Thanks.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And equally I think that is a fair riposte. Also two GMs through there in that time - Dorsey and then Veach so it isn't all one guy's work. 

 

Does it worry you at least a tad though that while 2018 was a great draft because we finally found the Franchise QB, in general terms the best draft of the regime is the one before the GM got here - White, Dawkins, Milano? Understand I am not anti-Brandon Beane........... But to be a top rank drafter he does have to improve for me. Find those stars. 

 

 

His mistakes were made as they often are.........in drafting for need.

 

Cases in point.......guys like Cody Ford and Devin Singletary...........on paper they are hits with a future with the team............in reality they are low ceiling starters that were sought out to patch holes in areas of need.

 

Especially when you are building from where they were in 2018 you REALLY gotta' target difference makers at key positions with early picks...........and find the guard with right tackle flexibility and average RB's with much redder chips or in UDFA or street free agency etc..

 

We have heard things said about this personnel department........like it's nearly unprecedented to have so much talent under one roof..........well they are all under one roof again cuz it seems nobody was too great to be kept down...........so I am also very intrigued to see what they do.   They need to do what the Chiefs did after the 2018 AFC Championship game loss when they had the worst defense in football.   Hit HR's and fix the things necessary to beat the Chiefs.

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Willing to bet our lack of a 1st round pick is why we aren't in the top 5 this year.

Not necessarily, it takes into account the value found in that round and if you can extract more. 
 

You can definitely benefit from having more picks and hitting on all of them minimally or you can benefit from having very few picks and hitting 1 big and missing on the others. It really just rewards you for extracting as much value as possible, without just looking at raw AV which doesn’t really tell a story as to how you drafted. 
 

So, a first round pick would help, if that pick performed well for us. If they didn’t, it would hurt the value.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm having a hard time putting much trust in a stat that says the Bills had the 4th best draft of 2019. 

 

Oliver, Ford, Singletary, and Knox are all starters, but I don't think any of them are difference makers. I can't rate any of them as better than replacement level. 

 

I don't think this was mentioned in your post, but how do you handle players that were drafted by the Bills, and then went to play for another team? I'm thinking of Wyatt Teller in particular, who was a great value 5th rd draft pick.....but he's playing for a different team. 

 

Personally I've been a bit critical of Beane's drafting. I'll normally start with "if we ignore White and Allen...." which I guess really isn't fair. He certainly deserves a ton of credit for drafting an all-pro QB, and for drafting an all pro CB (I don't really care if it was McD vs Beane for that selection). 

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His mistakes were made as they often are.........in drafting for need.

 

Cases in point.......guys like Cody Ford and Devin Singletary...........on paper they are hits with a future with the team............in reality they are low ceiling starters that were sought out to patch holes in areas of need.

 

Especially when you are building from where they were in 2018 you REALLY gotta' target difference makers at key positions with early picks...........and find the guard with right tackle flexibility and average RB's with much redder chips or in UDFA or street free agency etc..

 

We have heard things said about this personnel department........like it's nearly unprecedented to have so much talent under one roof..........well they are all under one roof again cuz it seems nobody was too great to be kept down...........so I am also very intrigued to see what they do.   They need to do what the Chiefs did after the 2018 AFC Championship game loss when they had the worst defense in football.   Hit HR's and fix the things necessary to beat the Chiefs.

I can’t say I disagree with much here, if anything at all. 
 

I like your point on patching areas of need. My stance has been that there were so many holes it was probably best to try and avoid big misses in the draft and target guys with the ability to contribute without the chance of busting big. Although, it may have been better served to target different positions in the draft and use FA to do what I just described. 
 

I mentioned it earlier, but I think that Beane has shown he’s willing to take risks and swing for high upside. It’s arguable that Josh Allen was one of the single biggest draft risks... ever (the entire process to move up for him was bold as well). The trade for Diggs using draft capital was bold.  He’s definitely capable of doing it, but felt like he needed a foundation place. 
 

I REALLY hope that now that we have that foundation in place (yes there are holes, but every good team has holes) that he starts taking more swings more often. It’s what the next step is. He has to be more bold. 
 

There is a lot of talent, I won’t get into how absurd NFL hiring practices are, but it’s fair that they did not get hired to lead their own franchise, so they need to continue to do more. 
 

You’re exactly right on your last point. I also said it above, but I feel like this team was created to beat the Brady lead Bills because they were the standard in the AFC East and the conference as well. Now the standard is the Chiefs lead by Mahomes, it’s time to construct a team with the goal of beating that team. 
 

They’ve already said the right things in regards to that, and this regime has proven their ability to learn from mistakes and grow. I really think this was a blessing in disguise, they’re going to be laser focused on doing everything necessary to take that next step. If we squeaked by the Chiefs this year and lost/won a Super Bowl I’m not sure we’d do the proper things to beat KC long term. 

[JGMcD2]

16 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I'm having a hard time putting much trust in a stat that says the Bills had the 4th best draft of 2019. 

 

Oliver, Ford, Singletary, and Knox are all starters, but I don't think any of them are difference makers. I can't rate any of them as better than replacement level. 

 

I don't think this was mentioned in your post, but how do you handle players that were drafted by the Bills, and then went to play for another team? I'm thinking of Wyatt Teller in particular, who was a great value 5th rd draft pick.....but he's playing for a different team. 

 

Personally I've been a bit critical of Beane's drafting. I'll normally start with "if we ignore White and Allen...." which I guess really isn't fair. He certainly deserves a ton of credit for drafting an all-pro QB, and for drafting an all pro CB (I don't really care if it was McD vs Beane for that selection). 

That’s just the point, I’m trying to throw out people’s perceptions of how the draft class is and stack it up against other draft classes. You might think it’s bad. But nothing is really good or bad other than by comparison. 
 

A lot of teams aren’t even finding starters in their drafts, it’s a hard thing to do. I totally agree we need more impact guys, that’s the next step, but we can’t take for granted the ability to find contributors. It wasn’t too long ago we were begging for that. These guys have continued to improve, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t take the next step and find stars (they have done it before too). 
 

This is the difference between the values. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.
 

The one I’m primarily using in discussion is TOT_NETDrAV. Which is only reflects the value that the drafting team has received from the players they drafted. This doesn’t reflect Teller’s value while playing in Cleveland, because it didn’t occur while in Buffalo. 
 

I do include TOT_NETCarAV as I find it interesting how teams have done just drafting pure talent. That’s why this value is higher for the Bills, because it includes how valuable Teller has been, albeit for the Browns. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[Billl]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Correct.

 

But Beane didn't draft Milano or Tre. McD did.

 

We've seen this movie with Doug Whaley. He drafted decent rotational guys, but never could get starts. Even worse when they were always picking like top 8.

@GunnerBill alluded to it earlier, but this league is about stars.  The Matt Milanos of the world simply don’t move the needle.  They’re useful pieces on rookie contracts inasmuch as they fill a spot on the cheap, but he’s projected to get well over $10,000,000 a year soon.  I’ll never understand why anyone would pay that for a guy who can neutralize a Firkser level player but is helpless against someone like Kelce.

 

Kansas City has a ton of holes on their roster, but their stars are so good that it doesn’t matter.  Andy Reid and Brett Veach’s drafting strategy is pretty clear.  They want athletes with elite physical skills that can’t be taught, and they trust themselves to coach them into players.  You can’t teach Tyreek’s speed, Mahomes’s arm, Kelce’s athleticism, Jones’s strength, etc.  You’ll never see them draft a Devin Singletary because there’s simply no upside there.  He has no elite tools, and there are 20 guys on practice squads who can do what he does.

 

The odd thing is that Josh Allen is exactly that type of player.  He had elite tools and very little feel for the game.  Given his trajectory, you’d think McBeane would keep looking for those types of players, but that hasn’t been the case.  I liked Epenesa, but he’s pretty unimpressive physically.  You see him in pads, and he just doesn’t look like an NFL DE.  Moss is another total head scratcher.  2 RBs drafted in consecutive seasons with high picks and neither of them will ever scare an opposing DC in the slightest.  Those are valuable picks that were just flushed down the crapper.

 

I don’t care who my OLBs are if I’ve got Ray Lewis at MLB.  I’ll take him and two water boys over three Matt Milanos.  I will grant that it takes a lot of job security to draft that way, though.  

[dave mcbride]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

@GunnerBill alluded to it earlier, but this league is about stars.  The Matt Milanos of the world simply don’t move the needle.  They’re useful pieces on rookie contracts inasmuch as they fill a spot on the cheap, but he’s projected to get well over $10,000,000 a year soon.  I’ll never understand why anyone would pay that for a guy who can neutralize a Firkser level player but is helpless against someone like Kelce.

 

Kansas City has a ton of holes on their roster, but their stars are so good that it doesn’t matter.  Andy Reid and Brett Veach’s drafting strategy is pretty clear.  They want athletes with elite physical skills that can’t be taught, and they trust themselves to coach them into players.  You can’t teach Tyreek’s speed, Mahomes’s arm, Kelce’s athleticism, Jones’s strength, etc.  You’ll never see them draft a Devin Singletary because there’s simply no upside there.  He has no elite tools, and there are 20 guys on practice squads who can do what he does.

 

The odd thing is that Josh Allen is exactly that type of player.  He had elite tools and very little feel for the game.  Given his trajectory, you’d think McBeane would keep looking for those types of players, but that hasn’t been the case.  I liked Epenesa, but he’s pretty unimpressive physically.  You see him in pads, and he just doesn’t look like an NFL DE.  Moss is another total head scratcher.  2 RBs drafted in consecutive seasons with high picks and neither of them will ever scare an opposing DC in the slightest.  Those are valuable picks that were just flushed down the crapper.

 

I don’t care who my OLBs are if I’ve got Ray Lewis at MLB.  I’ll take him and two water boys over three Matt Milanos.  I will grant that it takes a lot of job security to draft that way, though.  

Excellent post, esp re Epenesa, but Moss looks like a pretty good NFL back to me. If I’m right (we’ll see), he’s good value for a third rounder. He needs to be paired with a faster back, however.

[JGMcD2]

24 minutes ago, Billl said:

I don’t care who my OLBs are if I’ve got Ray Lewis at MLB.  I’ll take him and two water boys over three Matt Milanos.  I will grant that it takes a lot of job security to draft that way, though

I VERY much agree with this. I don’t think they’ve been in the position to do this, and have a good job finding contributors. 
 

Like you said with Josh, they took a home run hack and connected. Now they need to continue to do that. I personally feel they wanted to build a winning culture (which is important) and needed to fill so many holes they had to be somewhat safe (thank God we weren’t safe and took the right Josh). 
 

Ultimately I think you need 1 star at every level of the defense. DT/DE, LB, CB/S and then on offense you need a star QB, OL and at least 1, but probably 2 skill position players. 
 

Right now I think we have 4/7. 
 

QB: Josh Allen

WR: Stefon Diggs

OL: Dion Dawkins

CB: Tre White 

SKILL: Missing

DT/DE: Missing

LB: Missing (Maybe Edmunds puts it all together) 

 

The good news is that those 4 listed are locked up long term. We MIGHT have a 5th on the roster with Edmunds and it’s a big stretch but MAYBE Oliver can do that for us as well. 
 

But at the moment we need another elite offensive skill player, a DE/DT and LB. If we can get 2/3 and maybe even all 3 this off-season we’re in fantastic shape. 
 

At this point I would prioritize DE, LB and Skill. We need a DE who can disrupt the game more than anything else. We need a LB who can take pressure of Edmunds and just like him use his physical traits. I think we have enough good talent on offense we don’t have to prioritize a skill player, but in a dreams scenario we’d have another electric playmaker that would scare defenses. 
 

12 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Hence my comment that Beanes drafts have been pretty average.... outside of Allen, he’s gotten some nice players but a lot of role players/JAGs.... the back to back years of RBs in the 3rd round is pretty bad.....especially those two who do nothing spectacular and are slow as *****. Hell, Yeldon might be the best RB on the roster. 

It’s me being overly picky and sensitive at this point, but the drafts aren’t average. Average would be getting average value, they’ve done better than that. I think your analysis is correct, but that’s not average, at least in the NFL Draft. That’s all I’ve every really been trying to get at. 
 

You can check my other posts in here to see my stance on things, but I agree that we need to land 2-3 more star level players. 
 

To your RB point, I believe Singletary and Moss forced the most missed tackles in CFB when they came out. For whatever reason that seems to be what they value. I think that’s what they viewed as their best trait. I don’t necessarily understand the logic enough to comment on it, I’d be curious to actually hear them explain the thought process. But the point remains, neither have an elite physical trait. It’s easier to have success with elite physical tools, but it doesn’t necessarily mean success. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2