3 LB Sets

[PrimeTime101]

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd just like to question your premise a little bit:  Has our run defense in fact, been horrific? 

I would say our rush defense has been "average", but there's a twist.

 

I'm a simple Hapless Fan.  I don't like to get all meta with creating artificial statistics that have a hidden subjective component like PFF and Football Outsiders do.

So let's just do some simple maths.

 

-average rush yards per game this season 116 (wk 11)

-high 161 (Browns)

-low 82 (Bears)

That's a 2x range.  So right there we can see there could be a lot buried in an average "rush yds per game given up" stat.  For example, a team that plays poor rush teams like the Bears, and gives up 120 yds to them, could be a worse rush defense than a team that plays a great rush team like the Browns, Titans, Cardinals, or Pats and gives up 120 yds to them.  In the first case, they're giving up far more yards than that team's average.  In the second, they're actually shutting them down more than that team's average.

 

With me so far?

 

So on average to date, the Bills give up 130 rush ypg, which sounds pretty bad, as it's worse than the average rush ypg.

 

But when we look under the hood, we see this (my data, taken from Pro Football Reference).  "Delta" is the difference between that team's average rush ypg, and the rush ypg the Bills defense allowed when we played them.  A positive number means we held them to less than their 11 week average.  A negative number means we allowed more.

week	Tm	rush ypg	Bills rush yds	delta
					1	New York Jets	98	52	46
2	Miami Dolphins	95	99	-4
3	Los Angeles Rams	125	167	-42
4	Las Vegas Raiders	126	86	40
5	Tennessee Titans	158	139	19
6	Kansas City Chiefs	111	245	-134
7	New York Jets	98	100	-2
8	New England Patriots	150	188	-38
9	Seattle Seahawks	117	57	60
10	Arizona Cardinals	156	217	-61
12	Los Angeles Chargers	117	76	41

 

As a person who spent a lot of life analyzing data, the first thing that catches my eye is the KC game.  It's so horrific, more than 2x the other values.  We would call that an "outlier" and look for reasons to explain it.  Without that game, the Bills run D averages....118 ypg given up, or almost exactly the league average for rush yards gained.

 

Now of course, other teams may very well have a single horrific game that's skewing their averages, so we must consider that.  But there are a couple of  other interesting things to note:  our "horrific" run D, in 5 out of 11 games, has held the opponent to significantly less rush yards than their average (see point above about the same average number of rush yards given up having a very different interpretation depending upon whether the opponents are good or bad running teams).  In 4 games, we allowed significantly more rush yards than the average.  Hmmmm, wonder how the pass yards given up varied in those games?

 

I would say that McD and Frazier craft a game plan for each opponent, where they decide what they're most interested in taking away and then Do Just That.  And they've succeeded, over the last 3 games, in doing so without Milano.  In fact, in two of those 3 games, we kind of had attention-getting numbers.  57 rush yards allowed is half what the SeaSnakes typically achieve.

 

If I were guessing, I'd guess the Bills will be in no hurry to rush Milano back, certainly not to bolster their run defense.  He's still wearing that brace.  He missed some tackles when he couldn't raise his arm.  I'm thinking they want to work him in, let him build up to game shape, maybe start him in a week or so.  We need him more in coverage.

 

nice stuff but lets keep it real.

 

we are 25th in rushing yards allowed total allowing 126.9 yards a game

Last year our rush defense ended 10th in the league.  it doesn't matter witch teams did good in rushing against us compared to there averages. the fact is this year is different. you can say horrible is bad wording? i don't care we need to be better. period. To be top 5 defense we should be forcing teams to rush less then there average... not the same or close. So as much as i respect the work you put in it doesn't add up and look well at the end

 

The question at hand is should we do better against the rush?

yes!

would having 3 stud LB's out there help us?

yes

 

 

[Penfield45]

our 2 LB sets are hurting this defense

 

McD cannot run his full defense with 2 LB's. this team needs an elite all pro LB who can be the game changer on defense. Basically a Luke Keachly type. Until we have that we will never see McD's defense at its best. 

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

our 2 LB sets are hurting this defense

 

McD cannot run his full defense with 2 LB's. this team needs an elite all pro LB who can be the game changer on defense. Basically a Luke Keachly type. Until we have that we will never see McD's defense at its best. 

Agree I think with Klien, Edmunds, Milano on the field though we are a better team on running downs. Edmunds is still young yet a stable force in middle

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Context is everything.  I read the title and assumed we were talking Christmas fruit cakes. 😕

[maryland-bills-fan]

Gee.......  Think of this.  IF your team is super against the pass-  two good safties, three good DB's..... then the other team will run a lot, or use the pass to set up running plays. ... and vice-versa.  ... ...  Some "poor" teams look great in pass defence because the opponent is averaging 7 yards a carry, is eating up the clock and is on a safe route to a confortable victory.

[msw2112]

Klein is clearly playing MUCH better and Milano is hopefully close to 100%.  I'm curious on peoples' thoughts on Edmonds.  He's been much better lately, but why?

 

• Has his injury healed?
• Has the coaching staff made adjustments to help him out?
• Did he simply go through a slump and is now playing with more confidence?

Perhaps a combination of all 3?  Whatever the reason, it's good to see him back in form.  If Milano is healthy, then, yes, we should see more 3 LB sets.  It will also be interesting to see if Dodson is activated.  They recently signed Kumerow to the 53,  and Norman is back, so I'm not sure how many spots are available.  I guess Kumerow took Brown's spot, but he'll be back from IR in a couple of weeks (hopefully).  I trust that many folks on this board have all of this information readily available.  I don't.

[27yanks]

Maybe put AJK on the edge (major disruptor of off tackle runs, ties up TE for run blocking???), allow Milano to hit his strengths (dropping in Coverage) or not allowing backs to hit the outside. 

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, NoSaint said:

modern nfl defenses go to a nickel, honestly. That’s not McD defenses, that’s nfl defenses.

 

But ideally you can at least mix it up and still have personnel suited to defend the passing game.

 

When the Bills drafted Edmunds all of the talk was about how athletic he was and his rare potential as a coverage LB.

 

My hope when the Bills signed Klein was that they would eventually put him in the middle.....where he played in Carolina...... and start working Edmunds as a strong side edge player.........where he could cover the TE or rush the passer.

 

I probably won't get to see that......but it's not that big of a stretch to use him more like Pitt uses TJ Watt...........it's not like the Bills employ a base DE on the strong side........they run Hughes and Bam Johnson over there and neither are even remotely stout against the run.

 

With Milano healthy.......*maybe* we get a peak at what that might look like.

 

Edmunds has been playing better but his skill is wasted as a sideline to sideline type and frankly he is not so good in zone coverage.....instincts in general are not his strong suit........he is probably better suited to going man against a TE or even a slot WR or covering the RB on wheel routes etc..   I like him in motion a lot better than flat footed. 

[Manther]

13 hours ago, TBBills said:

Rush back? He hasn't played in forever. He will be activated Sat and play on Sunday NFC or not this is a needed game.

Milano historically has hamstring issues.  IMO he needs to be 100% before he comes back.  If he comes back early and gets hurt again he may not be healthy enough to make an impact in the playoffs.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

13 hours ago, TBBills said:

Rush back? He hasn't played in forever. He will be activated Sat and play on Sunday NFC or not this is a needed game.

I sure as heck hope he doesn't play a football game on Sunday. We need him for Monday!

[4BillsintheBurgh]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

But ideally you can at least mix it up and still have personnel suited to defend the passing game.

 

When the Bills drafted Edmunds all of the talk was about how athletic he was and his rare potential as a coverage LB.

 

My hope when the Bills signed Klein was that they would eventually put him in the middle.....where he played in Carolina...... and start working Edmunds as a strong side edge player.........where he could cover the TE or rush the passer.

 

I probably won't get to see that......but it's not that big of a stretch to use him more like Pitt uses TJ Watt...........it's not like the Bills employ a base DE on the strong side........they run Hughes and Bam Johnson over there and neither are even remotely stout against the run.

 

With Milano healthy.......*maybe* we get a peak at what that might look like.

 

Edmunds has been playing better but his skill is wasted as a sideline to sideline type and frankly he is not so good in zone coverage.....instincts in general are not his strong suit........he is probably better suited to going man against a TE or even a slot WR or covering the RB on wheel routes etc..   I like him in motion a lot better than flat footed. 

I've seen you mention this a few times, but when I watch him rush the passer I don't see moves or bend. He just tries to run around guys or stops and gets his hands up. Granted I don't have the all 22, but the next pass rush move I see will be the first. I can't see him being good in a one on one situation like he would need to be on the outside, he needs the scheme to free him up like Kline.

 

To me he's a free safety playing in a DE body so I think covering the te would be a great use for him - actually when they drafted him I thought it was with the idea he could take Gronk out of the game. McDermott and the staff obviously see it differently, so we'll see if they ever utilize him in a different way.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I've seen you mention this a few times, but when I watch him rush the passer I don't see moves or bend. He just tries to run around guys or stops and gets his hands up. Granted I don't have the all 22, but the next pass rush move I see will be the first. I can't see him being good in a one on one situation like he would need to be on the outside, he needs the scheme to free him up like Kline.

 

To me he's a free safety playing in a DE body so I think covering the te would be a great use for him - actually when they drafted him I thought it was with the idea he could take Gronk out of the game. McDermott and the staff obviously see it differently, so we'll see if they ever utilize him in a different way.

 

 

The pass rush from the edge would be a work in progress but I think he has the ability to develop into a stud there.

 

Honestly I expect him to want or perhaps even demand to be moved outside before his contract is up.

 

The money is in playing an edge position and he isn't playing so exceptionally well in that off-ball,  sideline-to-sideline role that he would be likely to command top dollar otherwise.

 

It's been said many times(in Edmunds' defense) that the responsibilities of both LB's in this system are about the same.    So with Milano or Klein usually out-play-making him regularly.........and Klein being a $6M player and Milano trending toward something similar........a contract in the $18-$20M per season as a playmaking edge like Watt would be a whole lot better outcome for Edmunds and a lot less taxing physically than needing to make 11 tackles per game.. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The pass rush from the edge would be a work in progress but I think he has the ability to develop into a stud there.

 

Honestly I expect him to want or perhaps even demand to be moved outside before his contract is up.

 

The money is in playing an edge position and he isn't playing so exceptionally well in that off-ball,  sideline-to-sideline role that he would be likely to command top dollar otherwise.

 

It's been said many times(in Edmunds' defense) that the responsibilities of both LB's in this system are about the same.    So with Milano or Klein usually out-play-making him regularly.........and Klein being a $6M player and Milano trending toward something similar........a contract in the $18-$20M per season as a playmaking edge like Watt would be a whole lot better outcome for Edmunds and a lot less taxing physically than needing to make 11 tackles per game.. 

I'd be surprised to see him become a stud on the edge, but it could happen. If I remember correctly he played around the defense in college and I would have thought if he had the pass rush he would have shown it at VT. I looked it up and he had 1.5 sacks in 2017, and that was it for his 3 year career. So he hasn't had the success even in college to request a move to the outside. I think it would take something similar to a Josh Allen level improvement in accuracy, but I don't know if he's going to put the time in. 

 

In the end I think he's going to end up being their guy and they will keep him in the middle, and it will be interesting to see what they do with Milano. For me I'd think about letting Milano walk and using that first round pick on a guy that can run a little bit and that wants the run game contact. Then they can swap the two based on down and distance, keeping Tre in a spot where his talents are maximized.

 

As far as contracts, I'm thinking we are going to sign some of these guys to contracts with a home town discount. That's not saying the contracts will be cheap, but less than what they could get on the market. What McBeane has put together is a pretty tight knit group and what looks like a franchise qb. Guys will want to stay and Beane seems to sign (mostly) smart contracts. Josh will be a big part of that picture and once they sign him the days of "he won't come to/stay in Buffalo unless we overpay" will be over.

Edited December 5, 2020 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[Big Turk]

Maybe on first down but other than that I don't see it happening too often...maybe short yardage and/or inside the 10 if they are in the Redzone so it makes for less space to cover?

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I'd be surprised to see him become a stud on the edge, but it could happen. If I remember correctly he played around the defense in college and I would have thought if he had the pass rush he would have shown it at VT. I looked it up and he had 1.5 sacks in 2017, and that was it for his 3 year career. So he hasn't had the success even in college to request a move to the outside. I think it would take something similar to a Josh Allen level improvement in accuracy, but I don't know if he's going to put the time in. 

 

In the end I think he's going to end up being their guy and they will keep him in the middle, and it will be interesting to see what they do with Milano. For me I'd think about letting Milano walk and using that first round pick on a guy that can run a little bit and that wants the run game contact. Then they can swap the two based on down and distance, keeping Tre in a spot where his talents are maximized.

 

As far as contracts, I'm thinking we are going to sign some of these guys to contracts with a home town discount. That's not saying the contracts will be cheap, but less than what they could get on the market. What McBeane has put together is a pretty tight knit group and what looks like a franchise qb. Guys will want to stay and Beane seems to sign (mostly) smart contracts. Josh will be a big part of that picture and once they sign him the days of "he won't come to/stay in Buffalo unless we overpay" will be over.

 

 

I agree with most of that.......especially the part about Allen.   The synergy created by having a top QB is so great.........that's why it was so ridiculous for the Bills to be passing on QB's with their first pick for nearly 60 years.   

 

But I would not use another early round pick on an off-ball LB unless he had a crazy high ceiling.......those are very rare.    I liked the Edmunds pick only because I saw his playmaking ability being a thing on the edge.   Then in his first game he had that type play where he got outside and used his long arms to get a strip/fumble against Baltimore.   But mostly in the middle he's been catching everything instead of being the one making the impact.   He certainly hasn't looked like a $15M per year player that is for sure.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/3/2020 at 9:33 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

Listening to a podcast that included an interview with a beat reporter from San Fran last night who said the San Fran offense with Mullins at QB is essentially an 18 yard bubble.  He just doesn't have the arm strength to push the ball down the field any further than that.  My guess is we will probably stick with our nickel package which we use almost 75% of the time, but I would expect our safeties to be creeping up to the line at the snap to help contain on the edges where Mostert does most of his damage.

 

I saw that "18 yd bubble" thing myself, and I think it's a bit deceiving

 

First of all, folks must understand that even for the NFL's Top Guns, passes beyond 18 yds represent only about 14-15% of the throws in the game.

 

Because I don't know of a site that breaks it down by >18 yds, I went into NextGen stats and confirmed this looking at Mahomes, Big Ben, Herbert, Wilson, Rodgers, Tannehill, Murray, Mayfield, and Josh.  All were remarkably consistent at 14-15% pass attempts beyond 18 yds.  High: Rodgers at 19% of attempts.  Low: Tannehill at 10% of attempts

 

Second, folks must understand that again, even for the Top Guns, long passes are low percentage throws.  Low was The Shadow of Big Ben at 23% long pass completion.  High was "Sure Shot" Tannehill at 50% (he takes fewer shots though).  Most were right around 40-45% completion of these passes.  Next lowest Wilson, at 34% completion. (Allen, because I know you'll ask, currently clocks in at 48% completion right now, which is right there with Rodgers.  14.5% of his throws in this range.)

 

OK so with that context....let's look at Nick Mullens most recent 4 games.  16 of his 133 pass attempts fell into this range, for 12%.  That's a few percent lower than average, but it's a bit more than Tannehill and almost double what Drew Brees (whom I omitted 'cuz no recent games) currently attempts (7%).

 

When Mullens does take a shot in this range - he completed 10 of 16, or 62.5%.  Again, very Tannehill-like - takes fewer shots, but when he does, he makes them.

 

My bottom line:

-for even the "Top Gun" QB (established and upstart), passes beyond 18 yds are a relatively small part of the game, typically 14%

-Mullens takes fewer deep shots (12% of attempts) and completes more of them (62.5%). 

 

This is consistent with some other QB operating in run-heavy offenses such as Tannehill, and may represent an offensive philosophy.

 

I will say that more of Mullens shots appear to be close to that 18 yd mark vs. "laser light show".

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I saw that "18 yd bubble" thing myself, and I think it's a bit deceiving

 

First of all, folks must understand that even for the NFL's Top Guns, passes beyond 18 yds represent only about 14-15% of the throws in the game.

 

Because I don't know of a site that breaks it down by >18 yds, I went into NextGen stats and confirmed this looking at Mahomes, Big Ben, Herbert, Wilson, Rodgers, Tannehill, Murray, Mayfield, and Josh.  All were remarkably consistent at 14-15% pass attempts beyond 18 yds.

 

This stat means nothing.. Cause its not showing what QB's throw between 18 yards and say 30 yards witch is much much much higher then 14-15%...

 

Your generalizing to much

 

Edited 

 

And i can tell you hes not doing as well as other QB's in that 18*30 yard range as other QB's

 

The Bills are going to play underneath coverage most of the game. Make them do long drives and by doing this not be beat as much in the run game,

 

And you can bank on there being more 3 LB sets this week..

Edited December 6, 2020 by PrimeTime101

[CaptnCoke11]

Stack the box and Pressure Mullens and their offense falls apart.  Gotta tackle well too cause Samuel and Aiyuk(sp) are good after the catch. 

[PrimeTime101]

9 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Stack the box and Pressure Mullens and their offense falls apart.  Gotta tackle well too cause Samuel and Aiyuk(sp) are good after the catch. 

yep

 

Just dont get caught stacking on those second and 1-3 yards thats when hes winging it down field

[PrimeTime101]

by the way against this team I would put 8 in the box at least 40-50% of the time.

 

If they ahead they will run run pass to kill time

 

If they behind its pass pass pass often times

 

This team gets away from there game plan often witch has ended badly more often then not,,

 

I know I know.. Good thing im not the HC Right? lol