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Joshs development has been amazing

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I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Edited by LABILLBACKER
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1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Cake walk 

Edited by Putin
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11 hours ago, Putin said:

Cake walk 


thats Teef’s TM 

😝 

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.


what’s he at? 21.  

 

6 games 2 TD per game 

 

it will be close. 
 

 

25e1854f6bcb0760911017da70278160.jpg

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15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

 

 

Last season, New Orleans now-third-string QB Jameis Winston also surpassed Dan Marino's then-and-long-time record 1984 season passing yardage total of 5,084.:flirt:

 

The passing yardage numbers of today are great for creating faux awe and "shattering" the seemingly modest records of QB's past.............but obviously totally out of perspective relative to those before the 2010 rule enforcement changes.   It's a disservice to Jim Kelly and even Drew Bledsoe to act like passing their yardage totals TODAY means much.

 

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16 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Hold on.... im astonished by your comment... how many early draft picks have failed top 10 QB?

 

should I list?

 

 

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

If the difference between a 15% chance and 25% chance is where they draw the line between expectation and astonishment then I'd suggest that person is easily amazed.

 

Fans like to create narratives that include things like destiny and a singular stroke of good fortune etc.............like Josh Allen becoming good means something magical has happened............there isn't anything mystical going on they just finally addressed their basic math problems.........the most likely place to find a franchise QB is round 1.......and you miss 100% of the chances you don't take.

 

And their timing was right because the 2017 and 2018 classes are going to produce double or triple the average amount of franchise QB's.

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12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

I see this being stated over. and over.  and over again.

 

I don't think an upthread reference to something @Kirby Jackson may have posted about once (without any reference or information as to his method) makes it a fact, or justifies endless repetition.

Then there's the question of how exactly one defines "franchise QB", historically a vexing issue here which has often turned out to be "we don't know, exactly, but we know one when we see one".

 

It may be time to consider:

"Two Bills Drive is a great place to discuss opinions on the Buffalo Bills. We are here because we all have them!   Having an opinion is great, but "crusading" on behalf of that opinion is another. Please don't post the same thing over and over and over again. Agree to disagree."

 

 

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By every measure he is a top 5 qb right now.  The addition of Diggs removes the game plan elite teams used to beat Buffalo last year.  Man up and blitz.  Teams who have tried that have been scorched.  He has become a true franchise qb.  Poor running game, average defense, and Buffalo is 7-3.  Average qb Buffalo is in a much worst position, you could flip the wins ans losses in my opinion.  

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12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I see this being stated over. and over.  and over again.

 

I don't think an upthread reference to something @Kirby Jackson may have posted about once (without any reference or information as to his method) makes it a fact, or justifies endless repetition.

Then there's the question of how exactly one defines "franchise QB", historically a vexing issue here which has often turned out to be "we don't know, exactly, but we know one when we see one".

 

It may be time to consider:

"Two Bills Drive is a great place to discuss opinions on the Buffalo Bills. We are here because we all have them!   Having an opinion is great, but "crusading" on behalf of that opinion is another. Please don't post the same thing over and over and over again. Agree to disagree."

 

 

 

 

@Doc came to the exact same 15% number independently.

 

I remember agreeing with @Kirby Jackson about the players he determined to be franchise QB level.........perhaps Doc can show his work.

 

In any event I do think that number is too low nowadays.

 

It included a lot of guys from pre-2010 NFL.

 

So far the 2017 and 2018 drafts have produced QB league MVP's in 2018 and 2019...........and Allen looks like the real deal as well.    I also suspect Darnold will go to Indy or San Fran next season and within two years emerge as a franchise QB.   So 3 of 8 now........but I suspect 4 of 8 will end up being franchise QB's from those two classes.

 

2019 class may prove a total dud but the 2020 class looks like it will produce a couple more.   Lawrence is darn near a sure thing in 2020.

 

Unless there are like 15 QB's taken in round one of 2020 and all but Lawrence flames out I suspect that 5 year sample is going to be a lot higher than 15%.

 

It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL.........I don't think anyone disputes that.........so I don't think it's a surprise that the hit rate on QB's in round one is trending upward.

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We don’t want Josh to lead the league in passing 

 

No SB winning QB ever led the league in pass yards 

 

The 3rd and 4th have but not THE leader. 

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4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Approximately 15% of 1st round QB's become franchise QB's........and only about 25% of first rounders at all positions play up to the expectation when drafted...........better than half fail to even get their 5th year options picked up.

 

If the difference between a 15% chance and 25% chance is where they draw the line between expectation and astonishment then I'd suggest that person is easily amazed.

 

Fans like to create narratives that include things like destiny and a singular stroke of good fortune etc.............like Josh Allen becoming good means something magical has happened............there isn't anything mystical going on they just finally addressed their basic math problems.........the most likely place to find a franchise QB is round 1.......and you miss 100% of the chances you don't take.

 

And their timing was right because the 2017 and 2018 classes are going to produce double or triple the average amount of franchise QB's.

I agree with everything you said accept what I originally replied to and your % game. where you get that info?

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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

@Doc came to the exact same 15% number independently.

 

I remember agreeing with @Kirby Jackson about the players he determined to be franchise QB level.........perhaps Doc can show his work.

 

In any event I do think that number is too low nowadays.

 

It included a lot of guys from pre-2010 NFL.

 

So far the 2017 and 2018 drafts have produced QB league MVP's in 2018 and 2019...........and Allen looks like the real deal as well.    I also suspect Darnold will go to Indy or San Fran next season and within two years emerge as a franchise QB.   So 3 of 8 now........but I suspect 4 of 8 will end up being franchise QB's from those two classes.

 

2019 class may prove a total dud but the 2020 class looks like it will produce a couple more.   Lawrence is darn near a sure thing in 2020.

 

Unless there are like 15 QB's taken in round one of 2020 and all but Lawrence flames out I suspect that 5 year sample is going to be a lot higher than 15%.

 

It's never been easier to play QB in the NFL.........I don't think anyone disputes that.........so I don't think it's a surprise that the hit rate on QB's in round one is trending upward.

 

I copied off of someone else (not Kirby Jackson, and I missed your quoting of his stat in that earlier post).  So yes, it's interesting that we both came to the same number.

 

https://www.volnation.com/forum/threads/draftnics-success-rate-for-1st-round-qbs.316657/

 

That person listed 13 franchise QBs.  I whittled-it-down to 9.  Looking at it again, I'd say you could maybe make a case for 12.

 

Again the point is that expecting a franchise QB when the odds are anywhere from 15-20% a team will get one isn't logical.  Sure it's the best round in which to find one, but the odds are poor you'll get one even there.  Now throw in how raw Josh was and his numbers his first 2 seasons...

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21 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I wonder if fans realize Josh Allen is going to shatter Jim Kelly's best season (1991) of 3844. He may also break the 33 tds he threw that same year? He needs to avg 249/ game to catch Bledsoe for all time Bills record for a season.

Wow! It looks like we have a keeper, Bills Mafia.

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4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

By every measure he is a top 5 qb right now.  The addition of Diggs removes the game plan elite teams used to beat Buffalo last year.  Man up and blitz.  Teams who have tried that have been scorched.  He has become a true franchise qb.  Poor running game, average defense, and Buffalo is 7-3.  Average qb Buffalo is in a much worst position, you could flip the wins ans losses in my opinion.  

Yep and it feels good.

 

I love the way you framed it. You’re right, if we had average QB play we’d be a below .500 team. This is what a good QB does, he makes his team better than they are.

Edited by BillsFan619

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1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I copied off of someone else (not Kirby Jackson, and I missed your quoting of his stat in that earlier post).  So yes, it's interesting that we both came to the same number.

 

https://www.volnation.com/forum/threads/draftnics-success-rate-for-1st-round-qbs.316657/

 

That person listed 13 franchise QBs.  I whittled-it-down to 9.  Looking at it again, I'd say you could maybe make a case for 12.

 

Again the point is that expecting a franchise QB when the odds are anywhere from 15-20% a team will get one isn't logical.  Sure it's the best round in which to find one, but the odds are poor you'll get one even there.  Now throw in how raw Josh was and his numbers his first 2 seasons...

 

 

I can accept those odds because 1 in 7 ain't bad at all.........it certainly makes no sense to wait 60 years to pick one with your originally slotted first pick(or trade up from it) in round 1 with those odds(but of course, the Bills did).

 

 A 1 in 7 chance would be top-4 Vegas odds to win the SB this year.    

 

1 in 5.......hell that would trail only the Chiefs who are at 7/2.

 

But in reality the odds are probably higher.    

 

From 2011-2019......beginning when the new level of passer freedom kicked in:

 

28 QB's drafted in round 1

8 franchise QB's.....Newton, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Murray......including 3 MVP winners.

29% franchise QB hits over that span.

 

And that's fairly conservative......it doesn't count Tannehill or Wentz who have had season long stretches where they have looked like top 5 QB's.

 

And the jury is still out on a bunch of others.

 

So really we are probably looking at more like a 1 in 3 "expected" hit rate at this point.

 

Those are GREAT odds.

 

And the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua and Herbert in it's class of 4.......who all could be on that "likely franchise QB" list by this time next year.........which would put the 5 year hit rate around 50%.

 

I understand why people want to feel amazed.........but we aren't talking about the odds of a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson hookup here.

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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On 11/17/2020 at 9:34 AM, The Jokeman said:

I'll admit going into this season I envisioned Allen at best a top 10-15 QB and said that he'd likely never be a top 5 guy as didn't expect he'd ever be a better than 62-64% completion guy and maybe get 300 yards ever 3 games or so. Yet he really has improved his play significantly from last year. Though I do think he tried a little too much on Sunday which lead to his interceptions. He does need help in the running game and to me a better TE as to me Knox/Kroft are at best #2 TEs. I'd love for us to draft a kid like Kyle Pitts in the 1st round in 2021 and our offense be even more deadly.  Yet the defense needs to middle out aka be middle of the road if we are truly going to make a run at the title the next year or two as giving up 25 plus points a game isn't good enough. Also the offense needs to wake up in the 3rd quarter or at the very least running game keep us moving the chains to get more points on the board. 

I think what’s really cool is that he’s improved with tougher competition. This has probably been his toughest schedule of his three year career.

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8 hours ago, BillsFan619 said:

I think what’s really cool is that he’s improved with tougher competition. This has probably been his toughest schedule of his three year career.


good point.  
the schedule has been tougher this season 

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15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I can accept those odds because 1 in 7 ain't bad at all.........it certainly makes no sense to wait 60 years to pick one with your originally slotted first pick(or trade up from it) in round 1 with those odds(but of course, the Bills did).

 

 A 1 in 7 chance would be top-4 Vegas odds to win the SB this year.    

 

1 in 5.......hell that would trail only the Chiefs who are at 7/2.

 

But in reality the odds are probably higher.    

 

From 2011-2019......beginning when the new level of passer freedom kicked in:

 

28 QB's drafted in round 1

8 franchise QB's.....Newton, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Jackson, Murray......including 3 MVP winners.

29% franchise QB hits over that span.

 

And that's fairly conservative......it doesn't count Tannehill or Wentz who have had season long stretches where they have looked like top 5 QB's.

 

And the jury is still out on a bunch of others.

 

So really we are probably looking at more like a 1 in 3 "expected" hit rate at this point.

 

Those are GREAT odds.

 

And the 2020 class has Burrow, Tua and Herbert in it's class of 4.......who all could be on that "likely franchise QB" list by this time next year.........which would put the 5 year hit rate around 50%.

 

I understand why people want to feel amazed.........but we aren't talking about the odds of a Lloyd Christmas/Mary Swanson hookup here.

 

The time period I (or more precisely, the guy whose homework I copied) used was fine.  Players weren't prevented from being franchise QB's by not having passer freedom: you either had it within the rules of your era or you didn't. 

 

But speaking of the time period you mentioned, the Bills used a 1st round pick on EJ in 2013 and on Josh in 2018.  And except for Mahomes and Watson, which were admittedly mistakes on the Bills' part for bypassing them (made up for by taking Allen the following year), they had no shot at those other QBs.  Newton, Luck, Goff, Murray and Wentz if you want to throw him in were the 1st or 2nd overall picks.  As for Jackson, his 2019 season notwithstanding, I don't think he's a franchise QB, but we shall see, and the Bills took Allen earlier in that draft. 

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2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

The time period I (or more precisely, the guy whose homework I copied) used was fine.  Players weren't prevented from being franchise QB's by not having passer freedom: you either had it within the rules of your era or you didn't. 

 

But speaking of the time period you mentioned, the Bills used a 1st round pick on EJ in 2013 and on Josh in 2018.  And except for Mahomes and Watson, which were admittedly mistakes on the Bills' part for bypassing them (made up for by taking Allen the following year), they had no shot at those other QBs.  Newton, Luck, Goff, Murray and Wentz if you want to throw him in were the 1st or 2nd overall picks.  As for Jackson, his 2019 season notwithstanding, I don't think he's a franchise QB, but we shall see, and the Bills took Allen earlier in that draft. 

 

Yes,  it's quite obvious that they were.

 

It became A LOT easier to be a successful QB than it was prior to those rule enforcement changes.

 

It's not a real blurry line when things changed either.........Cam Newton threw for a rookie record 422 yards in his first NFL game in 2011. 

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