Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[BuffaloHokie13]

20 hours ago, B-Man said:

NO polls in the last SEVEN days ?

 

Yeah, thats not a giveaway.

Turns out the polls were done by mail, so it's Trump's fault for killing the post office. Probably. 

[Big Blitz]

Buried in paragraph 11....

 

 

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Will Kenosha backlash swing suburbanites to Trump? What the data says (so far)

 

In other words, Biden’s suburban numbers are now nearly as bad as Trump’s, which did not change between July and August (42 percent favorable to 55 percent unfavorable). 

 

What did change, however, were the head-to-head numbers between the two candidates. In late July, Biden led Trump by a decent margin in the suburbs: 48 percent to 41 percent. In late August, the same suburban Americans told Yahoo News and YouGov that they preferred Trump over Biden, 45 percent to 43 percent. That’s a 9-point swing. 

 

Likewise, in July, 39 percent of these suburbanites predicted that Biden would win the election, compared with just 34 percent for Trump. In August they reversed course, with 46 percent picking Trump as the likely winner and only 41 percent choosing Biden.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-will-kenosha-backlash-swing-suburbanites-to-trump-what-the-data-says-so-far-154424284.html

 

Lol Yahoo.  Lol

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

In what way is it harder to push out fake numbers than real numbers? 

I feel like I could manufacture a fake poll of, say, 1,000 individuals in literally one day. I'd just take the data from an old poll and tweak it a little bit to fit my "narrative" if I wanted to show, say, Biden leading by 11 points. Or 15. It's nothing. Doing real polling takes time. 

In other words, this is an utterly asinine comment by someone calling him/herself "The Last Refuge."

 

They aren't "faking" the numbers in so much as they are (presumably) actually getting these results.  But, pretty sure they are tailoring the Q's in a way, and also tailoring their samples, to still end up with only slightly more people than 50% to say they'd choose Biden.  Which is effectively faking the #'s.

 

Prior to the conventions, they just needed to oversample D's to get there.  Now, it appears, they have to oversample D's and also ask very tailored questions that they'll still get D's to say 'yes, they'll vote for a senile man that they know won't last 4 years' without getting R's to tell them to go #### themselves.  Because a poll showing Biden up by 50 points + would not be believable to anyone but Biden & Clinton.  Watching clips of both candidates, have to believe that is a very fine line to walk.  And they have to keep Biden close in the polls to have any chance of people believing their "no, no, no, it only LOOKS like 45 won because every single Democrat in the country voted by mail because it was too scary to enter the voting booth" gambit to have any plausibility at all.

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

They aren't "faking" the numbers in so much as they are (presumably) actually getting these results.  But, pretty sure they are tailoring the Q's in a way, and also tailoring their samples, to still end up with only slightly more people than 50% to say they'd choose Biden.  Which is effectively faking the #'s.

 

Prior to the conventions, they just needed to oversample D's to get there.  Now, it appears, they have to oversample D's and also ask very tailored questions that they'll still get D's to say 'yes, they'll vote for a senile man that they know won't last 4 years' without getting R's to tell them to go #### themselves.  Because a poll showing Biden up by 50 points + would not be believable to anyone but Biden & Clinton.  Watching clips of both candidates, have to believe that is a very fine line to walk.  And they have to keep Biden close in the polls to have any chance of people believing their "no, no, no, it only LOOKS like 45 won because every single Democrat in the country voted by mail because it was too scary to enter the voting booth" gambit to have any plausibility at all.

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

Edited September 2, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

 

Funny, pretty sure the bolded can be said about you.

 

But if you don't realize that polling questions can be, and are, tailored to get a preferred result very often, Biden has a bridge to sell you.

[The Frankish Reich]

38 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Funny, pretty sure the bolded can be said about you.

 

But if you don't realize that polling questions can be, and are, tailored to get a preferred result very often, Biden has a bridge to sell you.

That is what's called "push polling," and the outfits that do that are pretty quickly eliminated from any reputable mix (RCP, 538). The kind of, "If you learned that Joe Biden wants to defund the police/ban fracking/raise your taxes by 50%, would it make it more or less likely for you to vote for him?"

[keepthefaith]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

 

Agree, dumb thread.  National polls mean nothing because we don't elect Presidents with popular vote.  Especially this year, the campaigns have barely started at this point and 2020 has been filled with events that swing some voters in one direction or the other almost from week to week.  The campaigns have a long way to go in terms of exposure.  We also know from 2016 that Trump under polls by several points. 

 

We should probably expect a very close and unfortunately contested result due to all the early/absentee/mail in voting. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by keepthefaith

[fansince88]

Got my 1 and only poll call the other day. When asked if I was registered Republican or Democrat I told them Republican. Then a bit later they asked if I ever voted Democrat in an election I told them other then one local state assemblyman a few years back I wouldnt vote for any of the Democratic scum that was running they hung up on me. I had so much more to tell them...?

[The Frankish Reich]

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

Fox News is still Legacy Media. 

[The Frankish Reich]

19 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Fox News is still Legacy Media. 

What is that supposed to mean? Legacy what? It is not NBC/ABC/CBS or even Dumont. It features -- in the prime evening slot -- Trump lapdog Hannity every night. And they're part of some kind of weird polling conspiracy aimed at suppressing the Trump vote?

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

What is that supposed to mean? Legacy what? It is not NBC/ABC/CBS or even Dumont. It features -- in the prime evening slot -- Trump lapdog Hannity every night. And they're part of some kind of weird polling conspiracy aimed at suppressing the Trump vote?

 

Fox News is not "Pro-Trump", in fact they're populated by Never Trumper GOPers/neocons. Especially when it comes to its board. They have opinion hosts who are pro-Trump, but their news is decidedly pro-establishment. The mistake you're making (imo) is still thinking in partisan terms. This isn't about democrat v republican, nor conservative v liberal. This is outsider(s) v the establishment. And that establishment is most certainly bi-partisan in composition -- especially when it comes to its media control mechanisms.

 

This has never really been about Trump. This is much, much bigger.

 

Added: I missed your earlier statements/posts/questions about the purpose of "fake" polling, or how its accomplished. Polls are only as good as their samples, and almost every poll showing Biden up 9-10+ points over-samples registered or likely democratic voters by close to 20 points. That guarantees a skewed perspective, as do "national polls" which have no bearing on the electoral college projections but can be useful in painting a false picture of the electoral outcomes (see 2016 as an example of this). Then you have the other added factor that polls depend upon people answering honestly. Over the past 4 years it's become dangerous to voice your honest political opinions unless your of a certain political persuasion (which ain't Trump or conservative), thus you have a sea of people who won't answer honestly out of either fear or contempt. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Deranged Rhino

[Doc Brown]

Remember people.  The national polls were spot on in 2016.  The interpretation of the polls were horrible.  If you're Biden the most important number is winning by at least 5 points nationally so he can't afford to lose three points from where he's at now.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

 

Lol what?

 

 

According to the internals of their NC poll the sample was 46% D 45% R and 9% "independent."

They recognize unaffiliated not independent in NC.

 

Since when has that been the breakdown anywhere?  They interviewed less of the unaffiliated to get result they wanted.  In case you say "so what?"

 

From their board of elections site:

 

Democratic: 2,546,802
Republican: 2,128,132
Green: 2,764
Constitution: 3,884
Libertarian: 42,064
Unaffiliated: 2,363,704

[Big Blitz]

But wait!  There is more. 

 

Arizona.  The breakdown in their internals in this fake poll is 46% D 43% R and 11% I.

 

From the AZ board of elections:

 

Voter Registration Statistics - August 2020*

PARTY NAME	REGISTERED VOTERS	PERCENT
Republican	1,389,960	34.84%
Democratic	1,293,074	32.41%
Other	1,273,215	31.92%
Libertarian	32,965	0.83%

[Tiberius]

Polls looking good for Biden. North Carolina! Yes 

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Polls looking good for Biden. North Carolina! Yes 

Just wait until kids go back to school in the rust belt and things get out of control.  See what the suburbs say then.  That, I submit, is when we’ll see Biden start to put this thing away. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Rooting for more death and sickness just to get his chosen political outcome. 

 

Classy as always. 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

Just wait until kids go back to school in the rust belt and things get out of control.  See what the suburbs say then.  That, I submit, is when we’ll see Biden start to put this thing away. 

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

[Tiberius]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Remember people.  The national polls were spot on in 2016.  The interpretation of the polls were horrible.  If you're Biden the most important number is winning by at least 5 points nationally so he can't afford to lose three points from where he's at now.

 

 

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it’s not a little backwards looking with 2016 in mind. I mean Georgia and Arizona are now in play, and if Florida is won by Biden by like .05 of a percent, it throws the whole formula out the window. I do agree that Trump could pull off an EC win again while losing popular vote, though 

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it’s not a little backwards looking with 2016 in mind. I mean Georgia and Arizona are now in play, and if Florida is won by Biden by like .05 of a percent, it throws the whole formula out the window. I do agree that Trump could pull off an EC win again while losing popular vote, though 

It's likely if Trump wins he'll lose the popular vote.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Polls are bogus 

 

How many people are polled

 

Who is the targeted audience?

is it skewed to one party  or bipartisan? 
 

which side ignores more polls?

 

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

 

Hoax.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[3rdnlng]

17 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

The dems are having a GREAT off season. The real season starts on 11-3-20.

[Tiberius]

No wonder he’s telling his supporters to cheat and vote twice 

 

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

Monmouth*

Biden 48, Trump 46

Biden +2

Weak 

[Reality Check]

Just now, Tiberius said:

No wonder Biden’s telling his supporters to cheat and vote twice.

 

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

Monmouth*

Biden 48, Trump 46

Biden +2

 

[Tiberius]

Texas is really close! 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

[Doc Brown]

Who the hell are the 35%?

 

[Nanker]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Who the hell are the 35%?

 

The media themselves of course. 

[Joe Miner]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Who the hell are the 35%?

 

 

They forgot the decimal.   It should have been 3.5. The polls are regressing to the mean.

 

The science was done here long ago.

[ComradeKayAdams]

Polls! Yes I love this topic. My many frenetic thoughts after briefly scanning the pages of this thread:

 

1. Question for conspiracy theorists: Okay, so all the polls are biased to make Biden look good and Trump look bad. Why, exactly? To make Trump voters feel despondent, thereby suppressing their vote…that’s the argument being presented. But couldn’t that logic work in the reverse direction, too? Biden voters see a big lead, get complacent, and don’t bother putting in the effort to vote since they assume their vote isn’t needed? Meanwhile, Trump voters see an election emergency and do all they can to show up and close the voting lead gap? Does anyone have voter data that can corroborate the psychology behind any of these game theory strategies???

 

2. Polling accuracy concerns: It’s possible that some of the polls are continuing to undersample voters without a college education, similarly to what happened Midwest statewide in 2016. There’s also the issue of Trump voters lying to pollsters partly out of spite, partly out of fear of retribution or embarrassment for holding political views that the left has demonized (racists, fascists, misogynists, xenophobes, and so on). And then you have the ever-so-mercurial “independent voter.” Oh yeah…and how can I forget all the vague candidate favorability polls that are not coupled with more relevant voter enthusiasm questions? Ok, so all of this uncertainty can be isolated and factored out using historical polling data as precedent. But THE BIGGEST and entirely new issue is going to be the inevitable election integrity failures due to Covid-19 mail-in ballot shenanigans. Those poor polling statisticians will have no choice but to lower their confidence level percentages, raise the error margins, and endure months of public rebuke.

 

3. Pollster reputations: NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, CBS News, and Fox News comprise the gold standard for me. Emerson and Monmouth are excellent too. Fox News polls I find to be the most “fair and balanced” of them all, ironically. I’d place Morning Consult, NPR/PBS, CNBC, The Hill, and YouGov in the “meh” pile. Rasmussen polls seem consistently unreliable and only there to boost GOP self-esteem, going back at least to the 2012 Romney blunder if not earlier. Dunno about the other ones at RealClearPolitics. For the skeptics and haters: remember that it’s routine practice to greatly undersample independents (whose votes mostly cancel each other out for the two main parties) and to sample in ways that won’t perfectly match voter registration. Why? Well remember that pollsters are (allegedly) in the business of getting good results that match actual outcomes on election day, NOT in getting the most “fair” registration-based representation. Or to put it another way, likely voters are more important than registered voters.

 

4. Swing state debate: Everyone here (I hope) knows that it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that decides a presidential election, so that means we should be focusing on the far more important individual swing state polls…even though the national polls still do matter up to specific thresholds. Biden has a comfortable national lead, but the swing states are tightening! I recommend paying close attention to the usual 6 battleground suspects, in this order of importance: Florida, the Midwest cluster (Michigan and then Pennsylvania and then Wisconsin), North Carolina, and Arizona. Ohio, Minnesota, and Nevada are also important demographic bellwether states for me. So that’s 217 EC votes for the Dems, 186 for the Reps, and 135 in 9 swing states. Everyone has their own list of swing states, but those are mine (I have Biden winning 279 to 259 at the moment...taking MN, WI, MI, PA, NV and Trump taking FL, NC, AZ, OH…flipping either MI or PA wins it for Trump, so things are crazy close!). Florida is a political “choke point” for Trump. I know of no viable path for him if he doesn’t win it. I’d also be shocked if Texas and Georgia are seriously in play. If they are, then the GOP has much bigger concerns than the 2020 election. Random trivia: did you know the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988? That occurred during a GOP incumbency election (2004) against an uninspiring Dem candidate (John Kerry) at a time of national crisis (War on Terror/Iraq War). Hmmm…

 

5. Legislative branch loneliness: Hey, let’s also not forget to track all the extremely important Senate races in this thread! There are 35 seats up this year, 11 of which I’d say are in realistic play for both sides (AL, AZ, CO, GA x 2, IA, KS, ME, MI, MT, NC). That gives the Dems a narrow 45-44 lead to briefly enjoy, when counting Angus King and Bernie with the Dems. I have the Reps holding the 117th Senate at 51-49 for now, but of course these races are WAY too close to be making any serious predictions in early September. There are also quite a few individual House battles that I find interesting, even though the Dems will hold the House for sure. The most interesting one to me that I recommend we follow: Queen Nancy versus progressive challenger, Shahid Buttar. The Pelosi name brand has proven to be quite toxic recently (see: Joe Kennedy endorsement), so I suppose anything can happen now? Such an upset would dramatically alter the trajectory of the Democratic Party and the country…for very much the better IMO.

 

6. Specialty poll medley: let’s also monitor any and all polls for candidate enthusiasm, chronologically comparative polling data between Biden and 2016 Hillary, polls for black males (differentiated by age, ideally), polls for Latinos (differentiated by geography, ideally), polls for the “yutes” (My Cousin Vinny reference), and polls for Boomers of every stripe! I believe Biden could be in trouble with the first five, but Trump may be in trouble with the last one (especially the female suburban ones). Any Boomer data is super important to me. If you give me good Boomer data, then I will tell you who wins the November election with great confidence! Maybe. I think.

 

7. Special emphasis on October polls: September polls matter a bit more now than in previous elections because of all the early voting, but they still don’t matter too much. Nothing matters much until “Basement” Biden passes the first debate test on September 29. Afterward, the fate of the economy plus any potential second-wave spread of Covid-19 through schools will determine…well…EVERYTHING (insert Gary Oldman gif here…The Professional reference…yes, I like old movies).

 

EDIT: I whittled down the competitive Senate seats from 18 to 11.

Edited September 7, 2020 by RealKayAdams

[ALF]

If these violent protests keep up I see that helping elect republicans and more funding for police.

[Tiberius]

Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	CBS News/YouGov	Biden 52, Trump 42	Biden +10
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	CBS News/YouGov	Biden 50, Trump 44	Biden +6

[Tiberius]

 

 

The presidential horse race remains unchanged by recent protests — Joe Biden still leads President Trump by the same margins nationally and in the battleground state of Wisconsin. 

Here's why: though neither candidate gets rave reviews for what they've said about the demonstrations, Biden is seen by more as trying to calm the situation, while the president is perceived by slightly more as encouraging fighting, rather than calming things down. And the larger notion that violence could come to "the suburbs" finds little concern among those who actually reside in the suburbs.

 

Moreover, it's also about the approach to those protests: by more than two to one, voters feel the way to end the them is to make police reforms and address discrimination, not to use law enforcement to punish protesters. Even the president's own backers aren't overly convinced the latter approach is better. 

 

Voters see the protests composed of a mix of well-intentioned demonstrators and people out for more destructive aims, but they appear to distinguish between the two: between the peaceful protesters — with whom, people say they can identify — and those destroying property, with whom they can't. And eight in 10 people in suburbs feel it's unlikely that violent protests would happen where they live.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-wisconsin-opinion-poll-protests/

[Tiberius]

I recall Gabriel Sherman’s report two months ago when he wrote: “A Republican strategist close to Mitch McConnell told me that Republicans have Labor Day penciled in as the deadline for Trump to have turned things around. After that, he’s on his own.” It’s Labor Day, and he hasn’t turned it around. Your call, Republican incumbents.

[Tiberius]

Wow! This is a hard leaning Trumpsters pollster, lol 

 

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden

Rasmussen Reports

Biden 51, Trump 43

Biden +8

[Taro T]

19 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

Polls! Yes I love this topic. My many frenetic thoughts after briefly scanning the pages of this thread:

 

1. Question for conspiracy theorists: Okay, so all the polls are biased to make Biden look good and Trump look bad. Why, exactly? To make Trump voters feel despondent, thereby suppressing their vote…that’s the argument being presented. But couldn’t that logic work in the reverse direction, too? Biden voters see a big lead, get complacent, and don’t bother putting in the effort to vote since they assume their vote isn’t needed? Meanwhile, Trump voters see an election emergency and do all they can to show up and close the voting lead gap? Does anyone have voter data that can corroborate the psychology behind any of these game theory strategies???

 

2. Polling accuracy concerns: It’s possible that some of the polls are continuing to undersample voters without a college education, similarly to what happened Midwest statewide in 2016. There’s also the issue of Trump voters lying to pollsters partly out of spite, partly out of fear of retribution or embarrassment for holding political views that the left has demonized (racists, fascists, misogynists, xenophobes, and so on). And then you have the ever-so-mercurial “independent voter.” Oh yeah…and how can I forget all the vague candidate favorability polls that are not coupled with more relevant voter enthusiasm questions? Ok, so all of this uncertainty can be isolated and factored out using historical polling data as precedent. But THE BIGGEST and entirely new issue is going to be the inevitable election integrity failures due to Covid-19 mail-in ballot shenanigans. Those poor polling statisticians will have no choice but to lower their confidence level percentages, raise the error margins, and endure months of public rebuke.

 

3. Pollster reputations: NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, CBS News, and Fox News comprise the gold standard for me. Emerson and Monmouth are excellent too. Fox News polls I find to be the most “fair and balanced” of them all, ironically. I’d place Morning Consult, NPR/PBS, CNBC, The Hill, and YouGov in the “meh” pile. Rasmussen polls seem consistently unreliable and only there to boost GOP self-esteem, going back at least to the 2012 Romney blunder if not earlier. Dunno about the other ones at RealClearPolitics. For the skeptics and haters: remember that it’s routine practice to greatly undersample independents (whose votes mostly cancel each other out for the two main parties) and to sample in ways that won’t perfectly match voter registration. Why? Well remember that pollsters are (allegedly) in the business of getting good results that match actual outcomes on election day, NOT in getting the most “fair” registration-based representation. Or to put it another way, likely voters are more important than registered voters.

 

4. Swing state debate: Everyone here (I hope) knows that it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that decides a presidential election, so that means we should be focusing on the far more important individual swing state polls…even though the national polls still do matter up to specific thresholds. Biden has a comfortable national lead, but the swing states are tightening! I recommend paying close attention to the usual 6 battleground suspects, in this order of importance: Florida, the Midwest cluster (Michigan and then Pennsylvania and then Wisconsin), North Carolina, and Arizona. Ohio, Minnesota, and Nevada are also important demographic bellwether states for me. So that’s 217 EC votes for the Dems, 186 for the Reps, and 135 in 9 swing states. Everyone has their own list of swing states, but those are mine (I have Biden winning 279 to 259 at the moment...taking MN, WI, MI, PA, NV and Trump taking FL, NC, AZ, OH…flipping either MI or PA wins it for Trump, so things are crazy close!). Florida is a political “choke point” for Trump. I know of no viable path for him if he doesn’t win it. I’d also be shocked if Texas and Georgia are seriously in play. If they are, then the GOP has much bigger concerns than the 2020 election. Random trivia: did you know the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988? That occurred during a GOP incumbency election (2004) against an uninspiring Dem candidate (John Kerry) at a time of national crisis (War on Terror/Iraq War). Hmmm…

 

5. Legislative branch loneliness: Hey, let’s also not forget to track all the extremely important Senate races in this thread! There are 35 seats up this year, 11 of which I’d say are in realistic play for both sides (AL, AZ, CO, GA x 2, IA, KS, ME, MI, MT, NC). That gives the Dems a narrow 45-44 lead to briefly enjoy, when counting Angus King and Bernie with the Dems. I have the Reps holding the 117th Senate at 51-49 for now, but of course these races are WAY too close to be making any serious predictions in early September. There are also quite a few individual House battles that I find interesting, even though the Dems will hold the House for sure. The most interesting one to me that I recommend we follow: Queen Nancy versus progressive challenger, Shahid Buttar. The Pelosi name brand has proven to be quite toxic recently (see: Joe Kennedy endorsement), so I suppose anything can happen now? Such an upset would dramatically alter the trajectory of the Democratic Party and the country…for very much the better IMO.

 

6. Specialty poll medley: let’s also monitor any and all polls for candidate enthusiasm, chronologically comparative polling data between Biden and 2016 Hillary, polls for black males (differentiated by age, ideally), polls for Latinos (differentiated by geography, ideally), polls for the “yutes” (My Cousin Vinny reference), and polls for Boomers of every stripe! I believe Biden could be in trouble with the first five, but Trump may be in trouble with the last one (especially the female suburban ones). Any Boomer data is super important to me. If you give me good Boomer data, then I will tell you who wins the November election with great confidence! Maybe. I think.

 

7. Special emphasis on October polls: September polls matter a bit more now than in previous elections because of all the early voting, but they still don’t matter too much. Nothing matters much until “Basement” Biden passes the first debate test on September 29. Afterward, the fate of the economy plus any potential second-wave spread of Covid-19 through schools will determine…well…EVERYTHING (insert Gary Oldman gif here…The Professional reference…yes, I like old movies).

 

EDIT: I whittled down the competitive Senate seats from 18 to 11.

 

To your 1st question.  Don't know the how (and went waaaaay too far off course into conspiracy theory last time talking with another poster about polling so won't even attempt to figure out the how) but the why would be to keep their narrative alive that Republicans will vote in person & Democrats will vote by mail.  If the polls support Biden being up or in a dead heat then having tons of Biden votes being found in the weeks after the election switching a huge 45 win into a narrow Biden win becomes plausible if not credible.

 

Really don't see how undecides break for Biden if we're still seeing nightly riots 2 months from now, so am expecting at this point a bigger win for 45 than in '16.  So, seeing an election night victory for 45 seems right at present, but if the polls say he shouldn't win big, would not be surprised at D's manufacturing votes in states like NV (to try to get Biden an EC win) & in CA (to get him a commanding popular vote lead to help their narrative).  The D's are already trying to set that expectation.  Having tight polls or Biden leads are critical to pull it off.  (That should be far enough into conpiracy tin-foil hat land for now.)

 

But there are nearly 2 months to go, so we shall see.

[BullBuchanan]

On 9/3/2020 at 12:40 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

As someone that's not a democrat, here's my take:

1. I wish COVID was as bad as ebola. It would have saved 180,000+ American lives
2. I want us all locked down too. This would have been over 6 months ago if we had. The people to blame for the economic crisis are the deniers and the federal government.
3. A right wing neo-liberal and a neo-liberal cop are socialists? I wish Biden and the Democrats was 1/10th as cool as you make him seem. As someone int he socialist spectrum, Democrats are basically 1980's era Republicans.
4. I don't really care one way or another.

5. Yawn. Don't care.

Edited September 7, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[Tiberius]

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

Susquehanna

Biden 44, Trump 42

Biden +2