My pick for the 2nd round - Jonathan Taylor

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

"red flags"!

 

"fumbles lost"!

 

all went.... poof.

 

It takes minutes to research this stuff, doc.  Do so first.  Just trying to help.

 

No need to even do research:

 

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Singletary fumbled nearly 4% of his carries last season---and this is a guy who didn't have a ton or carries (151).  Only 1 RB in the NFL had more fumbles last year: Henry had 5....over 303 carries.  Plus there's Big 10 vs "CUSA".

 

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Anyway, much is made about RBs and fumbles. 

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

No . absolutely not. and I like the Kid. But he a somewhat of a project to gain an all around game.
 

I say no for another reason as well. Since we no longer have 1st round pick ? Gotta nail this one, maybe even drop out of 54 if an offer arrives and they have their eye on someone dropping for them.
 

i think RB might be better found a bit later in the with very good value and can play rookie season. still keep Yeldon as insurance.

 

Allen need either a great Pass blocking RB or one who can catch. Devin can run the ball just fine.

 

If true ? 

 Then yes that sounds more like what Bills could use : )

RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked

• Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete.
• Catch Rate is the percentage of passes completed to this receiver.

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Passes	Yards ▴	EYds	TD	Catch Rate	FUM
C.McCaffrey	CAR	386	1	351	2	34.8%	4	30.4%	142	1,005	1,365	4	82%	0
A.Ekeler	LAC	320	2	359	1	38.8%	3	45.1%	108	993	1,093	8	85%	2
J.White	NE	142	5	179	3	14.8%	14	22.4%	95	645	647	5	76%	0
A.Kamara	NO	83	13	44	22	1.6%	23	-5.7%	97	533	558	1	84%	1
L.Fournette	JAX	-17	42	-28	45	-17.0%	42	-19.1%	101	524	349	0	76%	1
D.Cook	MIN	144	4	138	5	29.2%	5	27.5%	63	519	535	0	84%	1
M.Sanders	PHI	121	7	134	6	20.0%	12	23.7%	63	509	504	3	79%	0
A.Jones	GB	35	24	54	20	-5.1%	29	-0.5%	68	474	359	3	72%	1
L.Bell	NYJ	3	39	32	25	-13.2%	39	-6.5%	78	461	315	1	85%	1
T.Cohen	CHI	-36	45	-51	46	-20.1%	43	-22.7%	104	456	337	3	76%	1
S.Barkley	NYG	-37	46	-25	44	-22.8%	45	-19.9%	73	438	218	2	71%	1
E.Elliott	DAL	99	10	87	12	12.6%	16	9.3%	71	420	474	2	76%	0
D.Freeman	ATL	51	19	55	18	-0.9%	25	0.1%	70	410	388	4	84%	1
Du.Johnson	HOU	125	6	114	7	24.6%	9	21.5%	62	410	481	3	71%	0
C.Thompson	WAS	34	25	20	31	-2.1%	26	-7.0%	58	378	280	0	72%	1
Da.Johnson	ARI	114	8	111	8	29.2%	6	28.0%	47	370	426	4	77%	1
K.Drake	2TM	23	29	-25	43	-7.9%	33	-20.1%	68	345	331	0	74%	0
J.Richard	OAK	39	21	54	19	2.7%	22	8.6%	43	323	252	0	84%	1
N.Hines	IND	-24	43	-1	38	-21.5%	44	-14.2%	58	320	174	0	76%	1
R.Jones	TB	47	20	58	17	9.2%	17	14.5%	40	309	242	0	78%	1
J.Samuels	PIT	17	33	23	30	-8.9%	35	-7.2%	57	305	288	1	82%	1
M.Gordon	LAC	19	31	15	34	-7.3%	32	-8.8%	55	296	246	1	76%	1
D.Washington	OAK	74	15	76	15	21.1%	11	22.3%	41	292	303	0	88%	0
J.Mixon	CIN	86	12	80	13	19.3%	13	17.2%	45	287	363	3	78%	0
D.Ogunbowale	TB	31	26	16	32	-2.9%	27	-8.3%	46	286	267	0	76%	1
K.Hunt	CLE	71	16	80	14	14.2%	15	18.1%	44	285	325	1	84%	0
R.Burkhead	NE	37	23	27	28	4.0%	21	-0.8%	38	279	227	0	71%	1
N.Chubb	CLE	-4	41	10	35	-15.3%	41	-10.0%	49	278	174	0	73%	1
C.Carson	SEA	57	18	39	23	8.9%	18	1.6%	47	266	295	2	79%	1
R.Freeman	DEN	10	36	15	33	-10.1%	36	-8.3%	50	256	208	1	86%	0
J.Williams	GB	103	9	103	10	27.4%	8	27.5%	45	253	391	5	87%	0
J.Conner	PIT	75	14	93	11	21.2%	10	29.8%	38	251	308	3	89%	0
M.Ingram	BAL	145	3	153	4	74.6%	1	79.1%	29	247	418	5	90%	0
K.Juszczyk	SF	98	11	108	9	47.6%	2	53.5%	24	239	317	1	83%	0
L.Murray	NO	19	32	24	29	-5.6%	31	-3.4%	43	235	202	1	79%	0
G.Bernard	CIN	-55	49	-58	49	-38.5%	48	-40.0%	43	234	46	0	70%	2
J.D.McKissic	DET	12	35	-2	39	-8.2%	34	-14.6%	42	233	176	1	81%	0
Dam.Williams	KC	24	28	34	24	-3.7%	28	0.7%	37	213	216	2	81%	0
T.Gurley	LAR	0	40	-20	42	-13.8%	40	-21.0%	49	207	197	2	63%	0
P.Laird	MIA	39	22	51	21	8.6%	19	15.4%	30	204	205	0	77%	0
B.Scott	PHI	67	17	62	16	29.0%	7	25.9%	26	204	250	0	92%	1
P.Lindsay	DEN	-69	50	-57	48	-39.7%	49	-35.0%	48	196	48	0	73%	0
D.Singletary	BUF	-47	48	-53	47	-35.2%	47	-37.7%	41	194	61	2	71%	0
D.Montgomery	CHI	15	34	8	36	-5.5%	30	-9.3%	35	185	164	1	71%	0
L.McCoy	KC	-34	44	-15	41	-32.2%	46	-22.0%	35	181	63	1	82%	1
T.Coleman	SF	23	30	28	27	0.0%	24	2.7%	30	180	168	1	70%	0
J.Jacobs	OAK	28	27	31	26	4.6%	20	6.6%	27	166	166	0	74%	0
D.Lewis	TEN	3	38	-8	40	-11.9%	38	-19.0%	32	164	115	1	78%	0
C.J.Ham	MIN	6	37	2	37	-10.1%	37	-12.5%	26	149	134	1	65%	0
T.Johnson	DET	-45	47	-60	50	-40.2%	50	-48.8%	31	109	29	0	77%	1

 

Here is one valid source for evaluating Singletary as a running back receive.  I have sorted this chart by total yards receiving.  Singletary is WAY down the list.  He is 47th in total yards among NFL running backs.  (If I counted right)    There are all sorts of bells and whistles and 39 term mathematical expressions that people make up to evaluate players.   Somehow, I think that total yards and/or total TD's are the best ones.    This "football outsiders" site also has its own complicated ranking of RB's as receivers and Singletary ranks #48 there.     Come on.  If Singletary is going to be classified as a "good receiver" shouldn't he be at least in the top 16?   Now you can make all sorts of excuses,    "well the Bills didn't pass him the ball very much because  {  x y z q a t }.    I say that they didn't do what didn't work very well.    

 

Singletary is NOT a top running back. Here is the same source ranking running backs by their criteria.

RUSHING: Minimum 100 rushes, 45 players ranked

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk ▾	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Runs	Yards	EYds	TD	FUM	Suc Rate	Rk
E.Elliott	DAL	324	1	271	1	16.5%	4	12.4%	301	1,358	1,637	12	3	56%	4
C.McCaffrey	CAR	278	2	190	6	14.9%	5	7.5%	287	1,387	1,468	15	1	47%	28
M.Ingram	BAL	257	3	249	3	19.8%	2	19.0%	202	1,018	1,194	10	2	60%	1
A.Jones	GB	207	4	226	4	12.0%	7	13.8%	236	1,091	1,202	16	2	56%	5
K.Drake	2TM	202	5	176	8	19.7%	3	16.0%	170	817	942	8	2	51%	16
D.Henry	TEN	192	6	251	2	6.7%	11	11.4%	303	1,542	1,391	16	5	50%	17
R.Mostert	SF	191	7	188	7	26.8%	1	26.3%	137	772	775	8	1	53%	9
D.Cook	MIN	183	8	191	5	9.3%	10	10.1%	250	1,135	1,178	13	3	49%	23
N.Chubb	CLE	162	9	99	15	4.5%	12	-0.6%	298	1,493	1,324	8	2	45%	37
C.Carson	SEA	130	10	96	16	1.9%	16	-0.8%	278	1,235	1,278	7	6	57%	3
G.Edwards	BAL	126	11	124	12	11.8%	8	11.5%	133	710	736	2	2	56%	6
J.Jacobs	OAK	126	12	171	9	3.5%	14	7.9%	242	1,152	1,096	7	1	51%	14
L.Murray	NO	125	13	118	13	10.7%	9	9.6%	146	637	760	5	0	60%	2
J.Howard	PHI	113	14	105	14	14.2%	6	12.7%	119	525	608	6	0	53%	8
M.Mack	IND	102	15	155	10	1.0%	18	5.8%	247	1,091	1,087	8	0	52%	10
P.Lindsay	DEN	94	16	133	11	1.9%	17	6.2%	224	1,011	928	7	0	50%	19
J.Mixon	CIN	90	17	74	18	-0.9%	20	-2.3%	278	1,137	1,156	5	0	46%	30
S.Barkley	NYG	84	18	29	26	0.4%	19	-5.5%	217	1,003	933	6	0	44%	38
A.Kamara	NO	81	19	56	23	3.1%	15	-0.5%	171	802	729	5	3	52%	12
D.Singletary	BUF	75	20	65	19	3.7%	13	2.1%	151	775	647	2	4	50%	21

 

He comes out as #20.  I would like to see top 12 or top 8. 

 

Here is that same chart, but sorted by total yards gained rushing.  Yes, Singletary missed 4 games so if you project his 12 games to 16 games, then he would have about 1,000 yards.

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	Runs	Yards ▴	EYds	TD	FUM	Suc Rate	Rk
D.Henry	TEN	192	6	251	2	6.7%	11	11.4%	303	1,542	1,391	16	5	50%	17
N.Chubb	CLE	162	9	99	15	4.5%	12	-0.6%	298	1,493	1,324	8	2	45%	37
C.McCaffrey	CAR	278	2	190	6	14.9%	5	7.5%	287	1,387	1,468	15	1	47%	28
E.Elliott	DAL	324	1	271	1	16.5%	4	12.4%	301	1,358	1,637	12	3	56%	4
C.Carson	SEA	130	10	96	16	1.9%	16	-0.8%	278	1,235	1,278	7	6	57%	3
L.Fournette	JAX	0	34	-7	39	-8.6%	34	-9.2%	265	1,152	980	3	0	42%	39
J.Jacobs	OAK	126	12	171	9	3.5%	14	7.9%	242	1,152	1,096	7	1	51%	14
J.Mixon	CIN	90	17	74	18	-0.9%	20	-2.3%	278	1,137	1,156	5	0	46%	30
D.Cook	MIN	183	8	191	5	9.3%	10	10.1%	250	1,135	1,178	13	3	49%	23
M.Mack	IND	102	15	155	10	1.0%	18	5.8%	247	1,091	1,087	8	0	52%	10
A.Jones	GB	207	4	226	4	12.0%	7	13.8%	236	1,091	1,202	16	2	56%	5
C.Hyde	HOU	54	22	90	17	-3.3%	26	0.2%	245	1,086	968	6	4	52%	13
M.Ingram	BAL	257	3	249	3	19.8%	2	19.0%	202	1,018	1,194	10	2	60%	1
P.Lindsay	DEN	94	16	133	11	1.9%	17	6.2%	224	1,011	928	7	0	50%	19
S.Barkley	NYG	84	18	29	26	0.4%	19	-5.5%	217	1,003	933	6	0	44%	38
S.Michel	NE	23	28	1	37	-6.4%	29	-8.5%	247	912	953	7	2	49%	22
A.Peterson	WAS	39	24	57	21	-4.1%	27	-1.9%	211	900	799	5	2	47%	27
D.Montgomery	CHI	-46	42	-41	41	-13.0%	40	-12.5%	242	889	820	6	2	46%	29
T.Gurley	LAR	58	21	56	22	-2.4%	25	-2.7%	223	858	907	12	3	48%	26
M.Sanders	PHI	14	30	9	35	-6.6%	30	-7.3%	179	818	662	3	2	45%	34
K.Drake	2TM	202	5	176	8	19.7%	3	16.0%	170	817	942	8	2	51%	16
A.Kamara	NO	81	19	56	23	3.1%	15	-0.5%	171	802	729	5	3	52%	12
L.Bell	NYJ	-76	44	-54	43	-16.6%	44	-14.3%	246	790	695	3	0	42%	40
D.Singletary	BUF	75	20	65	19	3.7%	13	2.1%	151	775	647	2	4	50%	2

 

Over 16 games he would be about # 12 to #15, but realize that I have not similarly adjusted the other players for playing all 16 games., so it is likely that he is, at best, in the middle of the pack, lets say #16.  (By the way,   he is undersized as a running back, so getting hit by bigger players and getting injured is ALSO part of evaluating what he brings to the team. ) Singletary doesn't carry the ball in short yardage situations.    Allen has half the rushing yards of Singletary.    Singletary does not run sweeps around the end very often or well. (hence the jet sweep with a WR carrying is used to make the defense defend the edge).  Singletary does not set out wide and play as a wide receiver to create mismatches or pressure the defensive backs into single coverage on a prime WR.

 

He has his limitations, and is useful but we could use an upgrade.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Doc]

12 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gesh.  If you are a running back in the Big Ten and the major weapon, you are getting gang tackled by many nfl calibre players and the second guy is trying to strip the ball. Singletary was playing against Stony Brook, Wagner and Bethune-Cookman.   There have not been many nfl level players from these small schools.

 

Taylor will be getting gang-tackled by actual NFL players, not just some NFL calibre ones.  And they'll do the same thing to him that players in college did.  I'm not sure how you logically claim that a guy with fumbling problems in college will magically improve in the NFL (well, except for "I doubt that will be the Bills misfortune to draft 2 such guys 2 years in a row").

 

As for Singletary, college is over.  Last year he averaged 5.1 YPC against actual NFL players.  He fumbled more than he did in college and hopefully he'll work on it, but I don't remember anyone talking about it until WEO brought it up.  But as WEO finally "came around to," "much is made of RBs and fumbles."  The Bills don't need a guy to carry it 300 times, much less a 1-dimensional guy who doesn't like to block.  They just one to share the load.  Which can be gotten in the later rounds.

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

Why use high draft picks at RB in back to back years, when The Bills could use quality youth at many other positions?

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Happy Days Lois & Clark said:

Why use high draft picks at RB in back to back years, when The Bills could use quality youth at many other positions?

Probably because we have ZERO depth at running back! And your young QB really needs a good running game to lean on.

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

 

No need to even do research:

 

 

 

 

 

I stand by my statement doc.   Just pointing out that his (overstated by you) fumble rate is lower than Singletary's was last year.  The comparison was to show you your erroneous conclusion. So since the Bills staff isn't worried about the drops of the current leading fumbler in the NFL, they won't be as concerned as you are about a guy who was a workhorse in college.   That's what is being discussed here. I don't think the Bills FO is thinking that his fumble rate will double to Singletary's as a rookie when they are evaluating Taylor.

 

I don't think they think the way you do.  lol.

[Doc]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

I stand by my statement doc.   Just pointing out that his (overstated by you) fumble rate is lower than Singletary's was last year.  The comparison was to show you your erroneous conclusion. So since the Bills staff isn't worried about the drops of the current leading fumbler in the NFL, they won't be as concerned as you are about a guy who was a workhorse in college.   That's what is being discussed here. I don't think the Bills FO is thinking that his fumble rate will double to Singletary's as a rookie when they are evaluating Taylor.

 

I don't think they think the way you do.  lol.

 

The FO doesn't think a guy with fumbling problems against lesser competition in college has a high likelihood of having issues in the pros?  LOL!   Good one.  And where do you get double?  Taylor fumbled once for every 54 touches.  Last year Singletary fumbled once for every 45 touches.  Never mind, again, Taylor is 1-dimensional and doesn't like to block.  The pick is better used elsewhere and they can get a RB to split carries with Singletary in a later round.

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 hours ago, Happy Days Lois & Clark said:

Why use high draft picks at RB in back to back years, when The Bills could use quality youth at many other positions?

I think with #54 we can get an improvement on Singletary.  The new running back would also be a young player.  He would be a young player who actually has the ball in his hands and is the primary person involved in about 10 to 40 % of our offensive plays.  That is more valuable than a depth player at a different position.

 

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The FO doesn't think a guy with fumbling problems against lesser competition in college has a high likelihood of having issues in the pros?  LOL!   Good one.  And where do you get double?  Taylor fumbled once for every 54 touches.  Last year Singletary fumbled once for every 45 touches.  Never mind, again, Taylor is 1-dimensional and doesn't like to block.  The pick is better used elsewhere and they can get a RB to split carries with Singletary in a later round.

I don't know where this  "doesn't like to block" comes from.  Most likely it is somebody's early statement that has been repeated and repeated by the experts to becomea "truth".    One dimensional?   He runs inside and outside,  breaks away and gets a hell of a lot of yardage rushing.  He wasn't asked to catch passes because teams would stack up against him running.     Most "bell cow" college running backs are not used in college like a TE lined up in the backfield.  If they carry 300 times a year, the coaches expect them to just get in the way and save their energy and injury risk for running and receiving which is where they contribute the most to the team.

Edited April 19, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[maryland-bills-fan]

Anyway, I expect Taylor to be gone well before #54, and not be available even with a trade up.

[Doc]

27 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I think with #54 we can get an improvement on Singletary.  The new running back would also be a young player.  He would be a young player who actually has the ball in his hands and is the primary person involved in about 10 to 40 % of our offensive plays.  That is more valuable than a depth player at a different position.

 

I don't know where this  "doesn't like to block" comes from.  Most likely it is somebody's early statement that has been repeated and repeated by the experts to becomea "truth".     Most "bell cow" college running backs are not used in college like a TE lined up in the backfield.  If they carry 300 times a year, the coaches expect them to just get in the way and save their energy and injury risk for running and receiving which is where they contribute the most to the team.

 

Just what I've read.  And like it or not, with his fumbling issues in college, he'll be a target at the NFL level. 

 

I'm not sure what you don't like about DS, considering he averaged 5.1 YPC with the 15th ranked (FO) run-blocking O-line.  I'd rather look for a complementary back in the later rounds.  And if he proves to be better, great.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Doc

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Just what I've read.  And I'm not sure what you don't like about DS, considering he averaged 5.1 YPC with the 15th ranked (FO) run-blocking O-line.  I'd rather look for a complementary back in the later rounds.  And if he proves to be better, great.

What I think we are lacking with DS are:

• he is not a break-away long TD threat
• he is not fast enough to beat people to the edge
• he is not productive in the passing game
• he scares no one if he lines up as a WR
• he is not used in short yard attempts

There are many specs to evaluate players.   YPC is one but you have to consider when those yards were gained. 15 yard running plays on 3rd and 25, just get you better punting positions.  40 yards of rushing between the twenty yard lines is not as valuable as 15 yards from the 14.

 

We can improve the team the most by getting a better runner and would have a very solid RB situation.  The 3rd round pick would give us something like the 83rd best player this year to carry the ball between 10 and 45% of our offensive plays.

[Doc]

26 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

What I think we are lacking with DS are:

• he is not a break-away long TD threat
• he is not fast enough to beat people to the edge
• he is not productive in the passing game
• he scares no one if he lines up as a WR
• he is not used in short yard attempts

There are many specs to evaluate players.   YPC is one but you have to consider when those yards were gained. 15 yard running plays on 3rd and 25, just get you better punting positions.  40 yards of rushing between the twenty yard lines is not as valuable as 15 yards from the 14.

 

We can improve the team the most by getting a better runner and would have a very solid RB situation.  The 3rd round pick would give us something like the 83rd best player this year to carry the ball between 10 and 45% of our offensive plays.

 

I don't think breakaway speed is the be-all-end-all.  I'd rather a guy consistently get yards than break of a huge-gainer here or there to pad YPC.  As for the YPC, he had 5 runs on 3rd and 10+, for 20 yards.  Those actually brought his average down.

 

And he had 29 receptions playing 50% of the offensive snaps.  While Josh didn't throw a ton.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Doc

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

The FO doesn't think a guy with fumbling problems against lesser competition in college has a high likelihood of having issues in the pros?  LOL!   Good one.  And where do you get double?  Taylor fumbled once for every 54 touches.  Last year Singletary fumbled once for every 45 touches.  Never mind, again, Taylor is 1-dimensional and doesn't like to block.  The pick is better used elsewhere and they can get a RB to split carries with Singletary in a later round.

 

Rushing fumble rate.  1.9% vs 3.8%. 

 

If you want to add in his receiving data, best to include his 10% drop rate.  Top 10 in NFL.

 

If the Bills don't like Taylor, it won't because he's had 10 fumbles over 630 carries the past 2 years.  It's just not that high.  Singletary isn't felt by the staff to be a workhorse, for whatever reason, as he was used pretty sparingly.  They need another more physical guy to handle the load of a full season.  If he drops it 2% of the time, no one will care. 

 

 

 

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

On 4/15/2020 at 3:57 PM, FireChans said:

My pick for the 2nd round is Joe Burrow. Think of the value!

One unnamed exec said that Burrow is the perfect prospect for round 2-3.  Great player but he has a week arm and a short period of college success. 

[FireChans]

20 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

One unnamed exec said that Burrow is the perfect prospect for round 2-3.  Great player but he has a week arm and a short period of college success. 

Lol

[3rdand12]

19 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Gesh.  If you are a running back in the Big Ten and the major weapon, you are getting gang tackled by many nfl calibre players and the second guy is trying to strip the ball. Singletary was playing against Stony Brook, Wagner and Bethune-Cookman.   There have not been many nfl level players from these small schools.

Fred Jackson ?

: )

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Rushing fumble rate.  1.9% vs 3.8%. 

 

If you want to add in his receiving data, best to include his 10% drop rate.  Top 10 in NFL.

 

If the Bills don't like Taylor, it won't because he's had 10 fumbles over 630 carries the past 2 years.  It's just not that high.  Singletary isn't felt by the staff to be a workhorse, for whatever reason, as he was used pretty sparingly.  They need another more physical guy to handle the load of a full season.  If he drops it 2% of the time, no one will care.

 

You can also fumble after a reception.  And do we have stats on Taylor's drop rate?

 

No, fumbles won't be the sole reason they don't take Taylor, but it will factor heavily in their decision.  Despite the "much is made about RBs and fumbles," coaches absolutely hate it when players fumble.  Singletary didn't have a history of it in college and they no doubt told him to work on it after last season.  If he had a problem and they took him, you might have an argument that they don't care.

 

Teams will overlook Taylor's fumbles because of his his production.  But the reality is that Wisconsin RBs look like studs in college and rarely become studs in the pros.  And Taylor struggled against good defenses.

 

Teams are going RB by committee so they won't be looking to add a workhorse anyway.  Taylor might end up being a stud.  I just don't see spending 54, much less moving up, for him.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Doc

[maryland-bills-fan]

19 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

You can also fumble after a reception.  And do we have stats on Taylor's drop rate?

 

No, fumbles won't be the sole reason they don't take Taylor, but it will factor heavily in their decision.  Despite the "much is made about RBs and fumbles," coaches absolutely hate it when players fumble.  Singletary didn't have a history of it in college and they no doubt told him to work on it after last season.  If he had a problem and they took him, you might have an argument that they don't care.

 

Teams will overlook Taylor's fumbles because of his his production.  But the reality is that Wisconsin RBs look like studs in college and rarely become studs in the pros.  And Taylor struggled against good defenses.

 

Teams are going RB by committee so they won't be looking to add a workhorse anyway.  Taylor might end up being a stud.  I just don't see spending 54, much less moving up, for him.

OK.  But.....   Bean did not say that he wanted some quality depth that could take over a starting position in a year or two   . Beane has said that he wants a "touchdown maker"..That is not an offensive lineman or defensive end.  It is a skill position.   We just "drafted" a#1 WR and not are set at #1, #2 and slot WR.  What position could give us a starter and "touchdown maker" at #54?  This isn't rocket science.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

OK.  But.....   Bean did not say that he wanted some quality depth that could take over a starting position in a year or two   . Beane has said that he wants a "touchdown maker"..That is not an offensive lineman or defensive end.  It is a skill position.   We just "drafted" a#1 WR and not are set at #1, #2 and slot WR.  What position could give us a starter and "touchdown maker" at #54?  This isn't rocket science.

 

Is reading "rocket science"?  How many times have I said they should draft a RB, just not at 54?  That means drafting a guy to split carries with DS (who I expect to be here at least for the next 3 years), and ideally one whose skills complement DS's.  Taylor is viewed as more of a workhorse.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Doc

[maryland-bills-fan]

44 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Is reading "rocket science"?  How many times have I said they should draft a RB, just not at 54?  That means drafting a guy to split carries with DS (who I expect to be here at least for the next 3 years), and ideally one whose skills complement DS's.  Taylor is viewed as more of a workhorse.

The hole in the present roster is that we need another running back.  At 54, we can get a running back who will probably be an upgrade from Singletary. How is that a bad idea?

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

The hole in the present roster is that we need another running back.  At 54, we can get a running back who will probably be an upgrade from Singletary. How is that a bad idea?

 

There are other needs.  And other ways to fill that spot.

[Mat68]

I think many will have him as their top backs.  Usually 2 to 3 backs are drafted by 54.  If 2 or 3 are drafted its a high probability Taylor is one of those draft.  If he is available its a no brainer.  I like Buffalos position in the draft.  Getting Diggs for 22 puts them in a great spot to get a first rd rated talent at 54 also.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

You can also fumble after a reception.  And do we have stats on Taylor's drop rate?

 

No, fumbles won't be the sole reason they don't take Taylor, but it will factor heavily in their decision.  Despite the "much is made about RBs and fumbles," coaches absolutely hate it when players fumble.  Singletary didn't have a history of it in college and they no doubt told him to work on it after last season.  If he had a problem and they took him, you might have an argument that they don't care.

 

Teams will overlook Taylor's fumbles because of his his production.  But the reality is that Wisconsin RBs look like studs in college and rarely become studs in the pros.  And Taylor struggled against good defenses.

 

Teams are going RB by committee so they won't be looking to add a workhorse anyway.  Taylor might end up being a stud.  I just don't see spending 54, much less moving up, for him.

 

 

Could have led with that a dozen posts ago.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

There are other needs.  And other ways to fill that spot.

Yep.  Fill it with a third round pick like the 85th best player for this year.  Or go after a free agent running back who nobody else has selected yet.  KC is somebody we may meet next year.  Maybe a third of the mock drafts have them taking a top or top two running backs with their 1st pick round.  We are going to play them with a two third round picks, (or maybe a 3rd and a 4th?).    When you have a chance to improve on a good or okay starter, you do it.  You don't go shopping for a later round JAG.  Maybe Buffalo has been down for so many years, so that low expectations are a tradition?   If you can improve a position to be better than your opponents, you do it.

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think many will have him as their top backs.  Usually 2 to 3 backs are drafted by 54.  If 2 or 3 are drafted its a high probability Taylor is one of those draft.  If he is available its a no brainer.  I like Buffalos position in the draft.  Getting Diggs for 22 puts them in a great spot to get a first rd rated talent at 54 also.

 

Most of the time in mock drafts, I see Swift going to the fish and a second RB also going in the first. I don't think Taylor will be available with out pick. Tampa, Pittsburg, the Ravens and several other teams might also take running backs.  I don't see Taylor lasting until our pick or where we can pick. 

 

Therefore

 

I do not want to draft Taylor with our #54 pick.    I also am giving up sleeping with supermodels.

Edited April 19, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[JoeF]

On 4/18/2020 at 10:04 AM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Singletary's fumble rate last season was twice what Taylor's career rate was in college.

 

 

Singletary didn't fumble in college in 714 carries according the cited article below.  The pro game is harder. Every indication was Singletary was special when it came to ball security and he had issues in NFL.  A player like Taylor who has issues already is likely to be a bigger problem.

 

https://dawindycity.com/2019/02/18/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-devin-singletary/2/

 

Not only is he a big play waiting to happen, but he’s also an incredibly reliable and productive back. In three years at FAU, he ran for 4,287 yards (6.0 average) and rushed for 66 touchdowns. Despite carrying the ball 714 times, he did not fumble the ball once, an amazing statistic. Despite checking in at 5-foot-9 and weighing 200 pounds, he’s also incredibly difficult to bring down, maintaining magnificent balance through contact, as evidenced on this play.

Edited April 20, 2020 by JoeF

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, JoeF said:

 

Singletary didn't fumble in college in 714 carries according the cited article below.  The pro game is harder. Every indication was Singletary was special when it came to ball security and he had issues in NFL.  A player like Taylor who has issues already is likely to be a bigger problem.

 

https://dawindycity.com/2019/02/18/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-devin-singletary/2/

 

Not only is he a big play waiting to happen, but he’s also an incredibly reliable and productive back. In three years at FAU, he ran for 4,287 yards (6.0 average) and rushed for 66 touchdowns. Despite carrying the ball 714 times, he did not fumble the ball once, an amazing statistic. Despite checking in at 5-foot-9 and weighing 200 pounds, he’s also incredibly difficult to bring down, maintaining magnificent balance through contact, as evidenced on this play.

 

 

Yeah, well.....this ain't the CUSA. 

 

 

Singletary might be a special player.  But they don't feel they can use him much.  In 12 games average of 12.5  carries.  He would be the change of pace back.  They need someone else who, if needed, can carry the ball 25 times. 

 

The best RBs in the league were also the greatest fumblers.  I really don't think that's what they are focusing on.

[JoeF]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Yeah, well.....this ain't the CUSA. 

 

 

Singletary might be a special player.  But they don't feel they can use him much.  In 12 games average of 12.5  carries.  He would be the change of pace back.  They need someone else who, if needed, can carry the ball 25 times. 

 

The best RBs in the league were also the greatest fumblers.  I really don't think that's what they are focusing on.

Barry Sanders fumbled less than once every 150 carries

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/barrysanders/2502817/careerstats

 

Emmitt Smith fumbled less than once every 115 carries

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/barrysanders/2502817/careerstats

 

Jonathan Taylor fumbled once every 52 carries in college. 

 

At least back up your arguments with facts instead of conjecture. 

[Doc]

19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Could have led with that a dozen posts ago.

 

And you could have not even bothered bring-up Singletary's fumbles considering a) he didn't fumble much in college and the Bills couldn't predict his pro future and b) you said that fumbling is meaningless anyway.  And then you admitted that if you doubled Singletary's stats it would have been fine, therefore what he did was fine. 

 

Again, beyond the fumbling, which is more likely to stay the same if not get worse than magically get better in the pros, Taylor's got other concerns, which I listed.  Let someone else overlook them and take a chance.  The Bills don't need to draft a workhorse, assuming Taylor is even one.  He has yet to play a down in the NFL.

[CapeBreton]

If they go RB in round 2, I think they target Dobbins, Bills have been in contact with him. Haven’t seen any reports about them talking to Taylor.

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, JoeF said:

Barry Sanders fumbled less than once every 150 carries

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/barrysanders/2502817/careerstats

 

Emmitt Smith fumbled less than once every 115 carries

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/barrysanders/2502817/careerstats

 

Jonathan Taylor fumbled once every 52 carries in college. 

 

At least back up your arguments with facts instead of conjecture. 

 

Already posted upstream:  5 of the 6 RBs with the most fumbles in history are in the HOF.  Dorsett (every 33 carries), Harris (every 33 carries), Payton (every 45 carries), Dickerson (every 38 carries), Allen (every 46 carries).

 

 From pro-football-reference (nfl.com is obviously missing some data):

 

Sanders: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SandBa00.htm even if you add carries and catches, it's every 83 touches, not 150

 

Smith: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm even if you add carries and catches, it's every 80 touches, not 115.

 

Although it's safe to assume that for all RBs, the vast majority of their fumbles are with carries, not catches. 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

And you could have not even bothered bring-up Singletary's fumbles considering a) he didn't fumble much in college and the Bills couldn't predict his pro future and b) you said that fumbling is meaningless anyway.  And then you admitted that if you doubled Singletary's stats it would have been fine, therefore what he did was fine. 

 

Again, beyond the fumbling, which is more likely to stay the same if not get worse than magically get better in the pros, Taylor's got other concerns, which I listed.  Let someone else overlook them and take a chance.  The Bills don't need to draft a workhorse, assuming Taylor is even one.  He has yet to play a down in the NFL.

 

Except he didn't.

 

Yeah I guess if Singletary was a back who could handle 300 carries and kept up 5 per and had 8 fumbles...we could all be happy with that.

 

But he doesn't seem to be that kind of back. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Mr. WEO

[JoeF]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Already posted upstream:  5 of the 6 RBs with the most fumbles in history are in the HOF.  Dorsett (every 33 carries), Harris (every 33 carries), Payton (every 45 carries), Dickerson (every 38 carries), Allen (every 46 carries).

 

 From pro-football-reference (nfl.com is obviously missing some data):

 

Sanders: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SandBa00.htm even if you add carries and catches, it's every 83 touches, not 150

 

Smith: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm even if you add carries and catches, it's every 80 touches, not 115.

 

Although it's safe to assume that for all RBs, the vast majority of their fumbles are with carries, not catches. 

 

 

 

 

 

Except he didn't.

 

Yeah I guess if Singletary was a back who could handle 300 carries and kept up 5 per and had 8 fumbles...we could all be happy with that.

 

But he doesn't seem to be that kind of back. 

 

NFL.com is the official statistic not Profootball reference.  Give it a rest. 

 

I'll buy you a beer if we are ever at the same place at the same time if they draft Taylor.  There is no need to reciprocate if they don't.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, JoeF said:

 

NFL.com is the official statistic not Profootball reference.  Give it a rest. 

 

I'll buy you a beer if we are ever at the same place at the same time if they draft Taylor.  There is no need to reciprocate if they don't.

 

How many fumbles are listed for Sanders in his first 2 seasons on that site?

 

Did you even look at it before you copied and pasted? 

 

Here's another:  https://www.profootballhof.com/players/barry-sanders/stats/

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Except he didn't.

 

Yeah I guess if Singletary was a back who could handle 300 carries and kept up 5 per and had 8 fumbles...we could all be happy with that.

 

But he doesn't seem to be that kind of back.

 

Singletary had 261 carries his senior year in college, in 12 games.  And if the Bills were to draft Taylor, he would be splitting carries.  They're not looking for a workhorse RB.

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Singletary had 261 carries his senior year in college, in 12 games.  And if the Bills were to draft Taylor, he would be splitting carries.  They're not looking for a workhorse RB.

 

They will have to find someone.  If Singletary is again injured, the next guy can't be a dozen a game RB. 

[YoloinOhio]

3 hours ago, CapeBreton said:

If they go RB in round 2, I think they target Dobbins, Bills have been in contact with him. Haven’t seen any reports about them talking to Taylor.

They did see him play at Ohio state this year. They had a credentialed scout there. He wasn’t good. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 4/19/2020 at 2:44 PM, Doc said:

 

There are other needs.  And other ways to fill that spot.

 Other needs that will help the team more?   A 3rd string CB, or 3rd string safety or a rookie defensive end?  Name the starting player that they have a good chance to put on the bench?   Figure out who is going to get more touches with the football in their hands.

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

They did see him play at Ohio state this year. They had a credentialed scout there. He wasn’t good. 

https://nfldraftrite.com/2020/03/05/j-k-dobbins-running-back-ohio-state-buckeyes/

 

Don't worry.  It is only, at best, a 50 50 shot he will be around at #54.  The rest of the league is not as smart as the people posting here.

Edited April 20, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[YoloinOhio]

26 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 Other needs that will help the team more?   A 3rd string CB, or 3rd string safety or a rookie defensive end?  Name the starting player that they have a good chance to put on the bench?   Figure out who is going to get more touches with the football in their hands.

 

 

 

https://nfldraftrite.com/2020/03/05/j-k-dobbins-running-back-ohio-state-buckeyes/

 

Don't worry.  It is only, at best, a 50 50 shot he will be around at #54.  The rest of the league is not as smart as the people posting here.

You want Dobbins?

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Singletary had 261 carries his senior year in college, in 12 games.  And if the Bills were to draft Taylor, he would be splitting carries.  They're not looking for a workhorse RB.

OK.  How do you know they are not looking for a workhorse RB.  Has Beane told you this?  Is if from God's mouth to your ear?

 

 

 

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

You want Dobbins?

He is one of the top 4 running backs accord to most draft sites.  He is a good receiver, which is something we lacked.  Yes, he would do and be our RB 1A.

Edited April 20, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[Doc]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

OK.  How do you know they are not looking for a workhorse RB.  Has Beane told you this?  Is if from God's mouth to your ear?

 

They have a guy who can carry half the load and averaged 5.1 YPC.  And a RB to split carries won't necessitate a high pick.  Who told you they are?

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

They have a guy who can carry half the load and averaged 5.1 YPC.  And a RB to split carries won't necessitate a high pick.  Who told you they are?

 

Silly me.  Here I thought that teams drafted better players sooner than no so good players. Glad that you decided to correct me on that.