I think this is legit - NIH covid study

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection?fbclid=IwAR2sOTu2OB0hytRfHKgxi2xTa5dbTi34kZPHQ1OLDmRpqtC9IWYeiM575Vg

 

The study is to screen people who have NOT TESTED POSITIVE FOR COVID-19

Participants will get a screening interview then be mailed a home blood kit

[Punching Bag]

Linkie

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection?fbclid=IwAR2sOTu2OB0hytRfHKgxi2xTa5dbTi34kZPHQ1OLDmRpqtC9IWYeiM575Vg

 

 

 

I could be one.  Have had a persistent cough for 3-4 months with no other symptoms other than temperature higher than normal for me. My body temperature has been low and if I had it probably would not trigger alerts.

[Augie]

19 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Linkie

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection?fbclid=IwAR2sOTu2OB0hytRfHKgxi2xTa5dbTi34kZPHQ1OLDmRpqtC9IWYeiM575Vg

 

 

 

 I could be one.  Have had a persistent cough for 3-4 months with no other symptoms other than temperature higher than normal for me. My body temperature has been low and if I had it probably would not trigger alerts.

 

If not for the timing, I’d bet I had it. Supposedly too soon, but on 12/20 we drove to Florida with a young lady (who had just returned from working in NYC) who coughed the whole way. By 12/25 I was so ill my wife had to drive the whole way home. I was forced to sit in the backseat....and I didn’t care! Merry Christmas! I had a dry cough that just would NOT stop. I coughed so hard my stomach and back felt like I’d been beaten. My whole torso hurt. I’ve never had anything like that! Never took my temp, but felt like a fever. Totally exhausted, I coughed into February.

 

Around that time I started with this crazy little rash, but it would pop up, then go away. It didn’t hurt, and I was too sick to worry about it back then. I finally feel better, but this strange rash lingers a little. For kicks this morning I did a little search, and up comes an article that reports 20.5% of covid19 cases present rashes. Hmmm.

 

It could have been just a run of the mill respiratory ailment. I would certainly NOT operate under the assumption that I’d had it (and then of course my wife), but I do have to wonder - if they have documented cases as early as January, who’s to say it wasn’t around but undocumented a couple weeks earlier than realized? I wouldn’t do anything differently, I suppose, but I’d love to be tested to know. Whatever it was, it was NASTY. 

 

 

.

Edited April 14, 2020 by Augie

[UConn James]

There are some outlets that are saying coronavirus was presenting in China as far back as July 2019, and the CCP have covered that up with a disinformation campaign and WHO has gone along with it in lockstep.

[shrader]

In home blood drawing kits?  I wonder how often those have been used.  It seems like a recipe for disaster.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, UConn James said:

There are some outlets that are saying coronavirus was presenting in China as far back as July 2019, and the CCP have covered that up with a disinformation campaign and WHO has gone along with it in lockstep.

 

I don't believe in the Chinese government or WHO necessarily, but I do believe in genomic epidemiology and the virologists who do it for a living.

 

RNA viruses mutate at a pretty steady rate, and scientists can use the mutations to figure out where an outbreak started, and how long it has been going on.

 

Please don't take my word for it, let me point you at Nextstrain.org and the sterling work of genomic epidemiologist Trevor Bedford and his crew.  I'd like to point out that all these viral genomes are in the public domain, from literally hundreds of sites sequencing virus samples all around the world. 

To "cover up" or "disinformation" something like this would be mind boggling.  I wouldn't want to say it couldn't be done, but literally CCP and WHO have miniscule influence on a world wide population of scientists and sequencing machines.

It's not beyond question that there may have been a zoonotic case (or 2 or 3 or 10) as far back as July or even earlier in China - but it's pretty clear from the genomic epidemiology that the person-to-person spread that eventually made this into a pandemic started in China: December, November at the earliest. 

I ask, please take a look at those outlets and ask who they are referencing as a source for this - if it isn't a genomic epidemiologist ?‍♂️

 

 

38 minutes ago, shrader said:

In home blood drawing kits?  I wonder how often those have been used.  It seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

I think this is what they're using.  I don't know, but it's basically a finger-prick then use their sample gizmo to suck up a little tube of blood.

 

Diabetics have been doing the finger-prick thing at home for decades now.

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

If not for the timing, I’d bet I had it. Supposedly too soon, but on 12/20 we drove to Florida with a young lady (who had just finished working in NYC) who coughed the whole way. By 12/25 I was so ill my wife had to drive the whole way home. Merry Christmas! I had a dry cough that just would NOT stop. I coughed so hard my stomach and back felt like I’d been beaten. My whole torso hurt. I’ve never had anything like that! Never took my temp, but felt like a fever. Totally exhausted, I coughed into February.

 

In my case I came back from Florida after Christmas and when my wife went back to work I dropped off and picked up items from there.  Two of here workers went to China for Christmas to visit family.

[Wacka]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

In home blood drawing kits?  I wonder how often those have been used.  It seems like a recipe for disaster.

I see them in the garbage all over the place.?

[Punching Bag]

2 minutes ago, Wacka said:

I see them in the garbage all over the place.?

 

Well I already see gloves and masks thrown out on ground because people do not want to touch garbage cans.

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

19 hours ago, shrader said:

In home blood drawing kits?  I wonder how often those have been used.  It seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

 

...could be (BUT have no idea) be something as simple as a finger prick with a lancet...maybe Hap defines further............

 

[edit: see link upthread.  It seems to be basically a fingerprick with a spring-loaded lancet followed by a little collection device.]

[PetermansRedemption]

19 hours ago, Augie said:

 

If not for the timing, I’d bet I had it. Supposedly too soon, but on 12/20 we drove to Florida with a young lady (who had just returned from working in NYC) who coughed the whole way. By 12/25 I was so ill my wife had to drive the whole way home. I was forced to sit in the backseat....and I didn’t care! Merry Christmas! I had a dry cough that just would NOT stop. I coughed so hard my stomach and back felt like I’d been beaten. My whole torso hurt. I’ve never had anything like that! Never took my temp, but felt like a fever. Totally exhausted, I coughed into February.

 

Around that time I started with this crazy little rash, but it would pop up, then go away. It didn’t hurt, and I was too sick to worry about it back then. I finally feel better, but this strange rash lingers a little. For kicks this morning I did a little search, and up comes an article that reports 20.5% of covid19 cases present rashes. Hmmm.

 

It could have been just a run of the mill respiratory ailment. I would certainly NOT operate under the assumption that I’d had it (and then of course my wife), but I do have to wonder - if they have documented cases as early as January, who’s to say it wasn’t around but undocumented a couple weeks earlier than realized? I wouldn’t do anything differently, I suppose, but I’d love to be tested to know. Whatever it was, it was NASTY. 

 

 

.

Contrary to what people are saying so far, I think December is a plausible time frame. I was also terribly sick around that same time in December. Then my wife was. Then my kid was. With the high Asian population of UB and Canada I think it’s plausible Buffalo had a bit of an outbreak in December. China had cases as early as November 19th that they tried to hide. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, Wacka said:

I see them in the garbage all over the place.?

 

I think those are kits used to go the other way, In not Out, @Wacka.

 

Just sayin'

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Contrary to what people are saying so far, I think December is a plausible time frame. I was also terribly sick around that same time in December. Then my wife was. Then my kid was. With the high Asian population of UB and Canada I think it’s plausible Buffalo had a bit of an outbreak in December. China had cases as early as November 19th that they tried to hide. 

 

It would all depend upon who you had contact with.   I would like to know the source of the "China had cases as early as November 19th that they tried to hide" claim.  There's a report that " a November intelligence report by the US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) "warn[ed] that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population", but

1) it's my understanding the existance of that report has been pretty thoroughly debunked

2) I believe genomic epidemiology.  Phylogenetic analysis of viral RNA traces the current outbreak back to an event ~Nov 22-27 (that's based upon looking at mutations in viral RNA).  There would be more mutations and a broader tree in January if it had been widespread in November or December.  It's hard to make a bunch of nucleic acid sequences lie for ya, ya know?

 

Genomic sequences >>> people saying, what (individual) thinks (to me).  They're beyond what one person in one country says, they're published and made available world-wide.

Still, the earliest documented patient in China was 1 December, and had no known contact with the Wuhan market.  That would argue some community transmission at that point - the general consensus seems to be 10-200 cases for every 1 case that seeks medical treatment (the range depends upon how many asymptomatic and what the rate of serious illness really is)

 

It's not impossible in that timeframe a few of those early, unknown cases could have flown to US and caused a couple of disease clusters that fizzled out, thus escaped the genomic analysis, which says the first seedings in US were mid-January.

 

Remember there is seasonal flu of various kinds with identical symptoms.

 

[jburt2625]

34 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Contrary to what people are saying so far, I think December is a plausible time frame. I was also terribly sick around that same time in December. Then my wife was. Then my kid was. With the high Asian population of UB and Canada I think it’s plausible Buffalo had a bit of an outbreak in December. China had cases as early as November 19th that they tried to hide. 

I 100% agree with this. We were all super sick also. Not so much chest congestion but some of the other symptoms. 

My Wife brought up a good point though. Why weren't there a whole bunch of deaths like we are seeing now?  Or were there and they were being attributed to other causes? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, jburt2625 said:

I 100% agree with this. We were all super sick also. Not so much chest congestion but some of the other symptoms. 

My Wife brought up a good point though. Why weren't there a whole bunch of deaths like we are seeing now?  Or were there and they were being attributed to other causes? 

 

I will start pruning this (nothing personal, but this is a thread about the NIH study).

 

Seasonal flu makes people super-sick and has the same symptoms, but a much lower incidence of hospitalizations.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Well I already see gloves and masks thrown out on ground because people do not want to touch garbage cans.

 

 

I thought that was just 'cuz people are lazy sots who can't be bothered to walk 20 feet to a trash can.  Most of the trash cans here do not require touching to discard stuff.

[jburt2625]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I will start pruning this (nothing personal, but this is a thread about the NIH study).

 

Seasonal flu makes people super-sick and has the same symptoms, but a much lower incidence of hospitalizations.  

Fair enough....

 

I actually signed up for this study. No word yet.

I have a 15yr old daughter with an autoimmune disease and I signed up to see if a) we have had it already and b) if I'm immune. 

 

She had been locked up for over a month with my wife. I do all the running around. I'm very careful about everything I do at the stores and when I get home.... but you never know. So far so good.  I go about every 8 days to load up but still feel like I'm having a panic attack the day before and day after. 

[aristocrat]

Neighbors of my friend went on a cruise first week of dec.  Apparently they are going to be tested for the virus as they didn't have the flu or pneumonia.  Will see if I can get an update on them

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Thanks....question, if you had the virus and have the antibodies does this mean you can’t transmit the virus to others as well? 

 

Great question. 

The answer is "maybe", depending upon how long ago you caught it.  (Immunologists lurking here, correct me as needed, please 'cuz an immunologist I am not)

 

The timeline is something like:

1) be exposed to SARS-CoV2 virus

2) 5-6 days later develop symptoms of covid-19 disease (range 2-14 days)

3) ~7 days after symptoms, IgM antibodies develop (this is variable. As I understand, if you are exposed to a high titer of virus, you may develop IgM antibodies immediately, and have detectable amounts of IgM 7 days after exposure; otherwise your immune system doesn't take notice until the virus multiplies somewhat)

4) ~7-14 days after symptoms develop, IgG antibodies are produced (this is your "adaptive immune response" that provides long-term immunity)

5) ~ 3-14 days after last symptoms are gone, you are no longer contagious (there is uncertainty over how long people shed virus after symptoms are gone.  China quarantined 14 days post symptoms then re-tested by RT-PCR.  I've heard various doctors in US advise "3 days" but I don't think that's based on tests)

 

So there's a period of a couple weeks where you have antibodies but are still contagious, and the only way to know would be to get the RT-PCR test as well.

 

Some serology tests check for both IgM and IgG.  Others just check for IgG.

 

If that's a bit vague, well, it's because it's variable from person to person.

[Augie]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought that was just 'cuz people are lazy sots who can't be bothered to walk 20 feet to a trash can.  Most of the trash cans here do not require touching to discard stuff.

 

I think that is exactly right, sadly. I was mildly upset to see a glove in the parking lot after a grocery trip. Then I saw another, and figured it was the same clown.......but I continued to see them all the way to my car! They have trash cans right outside the door that don’t require that you touch anything. Some people......

[GG]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I will start pruning this (nothing personal, but this is a thread about the NIH study).

 

Seasonal flu makes people super-sick and has the same symptoms, but a much lower incidence of hospitalizations.  

 

And this season's flu was a bear and a half for those who got it.

[HopsGuy]

My friend sent me an article about them looking for volunteers. She’s had juvenile diabetes since she was, well, young. “I’ve pricked my finger for decades, you can do it once.” She works in DC as a lobbyist searching for grants for new imaging (MRI, CT, etc) technology. Big on public health. I wish I had her energy.

 

So I sent an email saying I’d volunteer: clinicalstudiesunit@nih.gov

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So today I received an email with a link and request to take a survey to determine if I'm eligible to participate.  Anyone else heard anything?

 

[Back2Buff]

On 5/8/2020 at 2:41 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So today I received an email with a link and request to take a survey to determine if I'm eligible to participate.  Anyone else heard anything?

 

 

Got the same request.  I filled out my info

[jburt2625]

Just received my email also. 

 

Looking to get picked so I know if I had it earlier in this fiasco. I have a daughter with an autoimmune disease and she got the same sickness I did. This would take a huge weight off my shoulders on what would happen if we/ she do get it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, jburt2625 said:

Just received my email also. 

 

Looking to get picked so I know if I had it earlier in this fiasco. I have a daughter with an autoimmune disease and she got the same sickness I did. This would take a huge weight off my shoulders on what would happen if we/ she do get it. 

 

If it's important to you to know, call your physician's office and do some google searching; Quest and other medical labs may have covid-19 antibody testing available.  Some require a test order from a physician, others will allow you to schedule an appointment without (but you may have to pay out of pocket)

[Fan in San Diego]

On 4/13/2020 at 9:30 AM, Augie said:

 

If not for the timing, I’d bet I had it. Supposedly too soon, but on 12/20 we drove to Florida with a young lady (who had just returned from working in NYC) who coughed the whole way. By 12/25 I was so ill my wife had to drive the whole way home. I was forced to sit in the backseat....and I didn’t care! Merry Christmas! I had a dry cough that just would NOT stop. I coughed so hard my stomach and back felt like I’d been beaten. My whole torso hurt. I’ve never had anything like that! Never took my temp, but felt like a fever. Totally exhausted, I coughed into February.

 

Around that time I started with this crazy little rash, but it would pop up, then go away. It didn’t hurt, and I was too sick to worry about it back then. I finally feel better, but this strange rash lingers a little. For kicks this morning I did a little search, and up comes an article that reports 20.5% of covid19 cases present rashes. Hmmm.

 

It could have been just a run of the mill respiratory ailment. I would certainly NOT operate under the assumption that I’d had it (and then of course my wife), but I do have to wonder - if they have documented cases as early as January, who’s to say it wasn’t around but undocumented a couple weeks earlier than realized? I wouldn’t do anything differently, I suppose, but I’d love to be tested to know. Whatever it was, it was NASTY. 

 

 

.

 

I've read some articles where they believe Covid  was in France and NYC in December of 2019. Some people in France where they died and the cause was listed as pnemonia, they re-tested the tissue samples and it was positive for Covid.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Fan in San Diego said:

I've read some articles where they believe Covid  was in France and NYC in December of 2019. Some people in France where they died and the cause was listed as pnemonia, they re-tested the tissue samples and it was positive for Covid.

 

The article I'm aware of identified one man, an Algerian fisherman living in France, who died in late Dec 2019 in France (no travel history to China or known contacts).

It's not several, which would be more convincing....it's one, out of 14 patient samples tested.  But they did retest with another kit to confirm the positive.

It's linked in the OTW covid-19 thread but here it is again: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643

It's the lack of travel/known contacts from China that implies that covid-19 must have been undergoing community spread in France at the time, but one sample is limited.

 

I'm not aware of the evidence about NYC in December and would welcome that link, if you could be so kind.

 

There's a chap in Oregon who did some antibody testing on his own using a Chinese Elisa kit and equipment in his friends' lab (not a recommended procedure for handling blood, but I applaud the initiative) and found a clear positive signal from someone who was ill in December, and who were hosting a Chinese student at the time.
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.199/26c.881.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Community-Serum-Testing-For-Past-COVID-19-Infection.pdf

Again, one sample is kind of a limited case....fluky things happen

 

But when one starts to have one sample here, one there, one in a third location it does start to look more persuasive