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Erie County/Upstate New York Covid-19 Response (was: Erie Co Declares State of Emergency


Big Turk

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Just finished up a conference call that included some people in Mumbai.  They are on 21 day lockdown and say it's starting to spread there.  They tell me the temperature in Mumbai hasn't dropped below about 77.  I'm no longer hopeful that this is going to take a break here over the summer.

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1 hour ago, driddles said:

Just finished up a conference call that included some people in Mumbai.  They are on 21 day lockdown and say it's starting to spread there.  They tell me the temperature in Mumbai hasn't dropped below about 77.  I'm no longer hopeful that this is going to take a break here over the summer.

 

Summer alone stops nothing--it might only slow the spread. In India, people live on top of each other in ways NYC would be jealous of. I really hope it doesn't catch on there. There is no way, literally no way, they could stop it. No way they could isolate. No way they could test. No way they could track. No way they could provide medical care. It would run its course through 1.4B people. 

Edited by Sundancer
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35 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Summer alone stops nothing--it might only slow the spread. In India, people live on top of each other in ways NYC would be jealous of. I really hope it doesn't catch on there. There is no way, literally no way, they could stop it. No way they could isolate. No way they could test. No way they could track. No way they could provide medical care. It would run its course through 1.4B people. 


They mentioned about how virtually impossible it is to stay away from people in Mumbai.  The 2 that were on the call also told me it's common for apartments there to not have windows.  Can't imagine a 21 day lockdown in a windowless apartment.  I'd go crazy.

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1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

Yeah I’ve been praying it wouldn’t hit India hard. Spooky to hear it’s there and starting to spread. 


I have many dear friends in Delhi. I too worry for them. The city and country would be helpless. 

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On 3/24/2020 at 4:34 PM, BillsFan4 said:

Yeah I’ve been praying it wouldn’t hit India hard. Spooky to hear it’s there and starting to spread. 

 

If you're a praying person, Pray for them... because in many spots they are packed in like sardines, and while in places their health care is very good....in others it is minimal, and even where it's good, it's scarce.

 

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9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you're a praying person, Pray for them... because in many spots they are packed in like sardines, and while in places their health care is very good....in others it is minimal, and even where it's good, it's scarce.

 

Ya the slums could get hit really hard. We complain here in America, and yes we definitely have our issues, but we're fortunate enough not to live like some countries in the world do

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9 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Cuomo closes N.Y. schools through 4/15

 

Unlike Governors from other states, he continues to take it two weeks at a time.

  I did not catch the full story on the television news two nights ago but it sounded like Cuomo is being advised to cancel the rest of the 2019-2020 school year.  We shall see where this goes.

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55 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I did not catch the full story on the television news two nights ago but it sounded like Cuomo is being advised to cancel the rest of the 2019-2020 school year.  We shall see where this goes.


inevitable but no pressing need to announce. . I wonder about the fall. 

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I've been telling my wife since the day they closed school it was going to be for the year. They should just call it indefinite until everything is taken care of. There seems to be more and more potential fall out piling up everyday.

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Virginia's governor issued stay at home order

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/490187-virginia-governor-orders-stay-at-home-order-in-the-midst-of-pandemic

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Northam said people should only leave their homes to obtain food, supplies or medical care, or for exercise. All gatherings of more than 10 people are banned.

 

"This has been a suggestion to Virginians. Today, it’s an order," he added.

 

 

Any person holding a gathering of 10 or more people can be charged with a Class 1 misdemeanor, through the governor's previous executive order closing nonessential businesses.

 

 

 

What was listed allowed does not even include people going to jobs which are not closed. 

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I already know it's a virtual lock I don't go back into the classroom considering my students are all Seniors whose graduation is May 22nd and school's already been postponed for students to return May 7th.

 

Yah... 2 weeks of a 4th quarter and then graduate???

 

Not so much...

 

Bigger concern is obviously what happens for my graduating Seniors. Likely many states (like ours) will have to waive graduation requirements, despite our efforts as teachers to do this "distance learning."

 

And then, will we be able to return to the classroom in the beginning of August when we always do?

 

And then (yes, trivial in many ways, I know, but still something we're thinking about), will we have Bills football in 2020?

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6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I already know it's a virtual lock I don't go back into the classroom considering my students are all Seniors whose graduation is May 22nd and school's already been postponed for students to return May 7th.

 

Yah... 2 weeks of a 4th quarter and then graduate???

 

Not so much...

 

Bigger concern is obviously what happens for my graduating Seniors. Likely many states (like ours) will have to waive graduation requirements, despite our efforts as teachers to do this "distance learning."

 

And then, will we be able to return to the classroom in the beginning of August when we always do?

 

And then (yes, trivial in many ways, I know, but still something we're thinking about), will we have Bills football in 2020?

 

My senior is pretty bummed about missing all the senior things and very concerned about the coming fall semester being remote at UPenn (yay her!!). 

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https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/31/at-ecmc-shaken-doctor-shares-lessons-from-the-covid-floor/

At ECMC, shaken doctor shares lessons from the 'Covid floor'

 

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Friday was his first shift on ECMC’s “Covid floor,” which has existed for only about a week on the hospital's 12th floor.

 

“I was not prepared for what I saw,” said Jensen, who sat down at home – shaken – and sent a text to a close friend that explained with raw emotion why he felt so stunned.

 

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“These were the sickest patients I have ever cared for in 25 years of doing this medicine thing,” wrote Jensen, 49, a medical school graduate from the University at Buffalo who has spent his entire life in Western New York. “The whole floor was full of sick people and absolutely shell-shocked staff.”

 

Spooky.

 

I keep saying it: These doctors and nurses are heroes. They are all in my thoughts and prayers every day.

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2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/31/at-ecmc-shaken-doctor-shares-lessons-from-the-covid-floor/

At ECMC, shaken doctor shares lessons from the 'Covid floor'

 

 

 

Spooky.

 

I keep saying it: These doctors and nurses are heroes. They are all in my thoughts and prayers every day.

A brilliant doctor and saint succumbed to the virus. Even as an older doctor his loss means a loss to the patients he could have served. The doctor, nurses and all the staff including the cleaning and food staff are serving on the dangerous front lines of fighting this virulent virus. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/health/neurosurgeon-goodrich-tribute-conjoined-twins/index.html

 

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1 minute ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://cbs6albany.com/news/local/coronavirus-causes-nys-dmv-to-extend-vehicle-inspections

 

NYS extending vehicle inspections. I’m glad because my inspection sticker expired today.

It's something you know would happen but I guess it needs to be said. Just like my address change, I had an appointment with my DMV in March and it was cancelled, so I know I am good with not changing it over for a while.

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Local pharmacies are being asked to offer free home delivery in NYS. Here is a list of the pharmacies offering it so far.

 

https://www.wkbw.com/news/coronavirus/list-of-pharmacies-offering-free-delivery-in-new-york

 

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Pharmacies who are members of the Community Pharmacy Association of New York State (CPANYS) announced that they will offer free home medication delivery (in-person delivery, courier service or by US mail, UPS, Fedex etc.) for patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

“This means that a majority of the State’s pharmacies will be offering this important service in every county and geographic region, along with curbside access and drive thru where possible to help prevent the need for individuals to enter stores. " said Mike Duteau RPh, President of CPANYS.

 

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Not Erie County per se  but if this is a factual guide to Federal programs helping small businesses, it deserves as broad distribution as can be.

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https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/poloncarz-things-will-get-worse-before-we-get-better

 

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Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz joined Schopp and the Bulldog on Thursday afternoon to talk about COVID-19 in the community

 

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Poloncarz on the status of things in Erie County:

"We are going to get worse before we get better. We have 727 confirmed cases in Erie County, 607 of them are active. We have had 101 recoveries which is positive, but we had seven more deaths since yesterday, so we're up to 19 deaths. We know, because people weren't taking it seriously, that there is COVID-19 in all age groups."

 

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Poloncarz on enforcing businesses to stay closed:

"It's not easy. If it's a bar, restaurant, or place that's been shut down, we can sent our sanitarians out there from the Erie County Department of Health with a sheriff's deputy and write a commission order and shut them down and they could be fined or have their liquor license pulled."

 

Poloncarz on enforcing individuals to social distance:

"If it's people hanging out in the parks, we can have our sheriff's working in concert with our rangers from the Parks Department and break up big congregations of individuals. Most people have been pretty good about trying to avoid being around people that they haven't been around, but not everyone has. We had to shut down disc golf in our parks because people were not breaking up into smaller groups."

 

 

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28 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....WHOA!!...BIG time out......you dare to question Big Fredo's equal commitment to Upstate and Downstate?...his purported National Guard confiscation of Upstate supplies is "sharing"...his purported threat of Upstate hospitals to "increase your facility capabilities or face certificate revocation so NYS can take over hospitals"  demonstrates he gives a rat's tuckus about Upstate?....think we Upstaters are downstate's cash cow?.......um...er....uh...oh....well.......

 

I have not lived in NY state since 1985 but I do not expect anything has changed.  Most people in WNY I know would rather cut out the appendix called NYC (along with its cysts including Lon Gisland). Maybe NJ and PA can contribute some counties as well.

 

New_York_Metropolitan_Area_Counties_Illustration.PNG 

Merge it all with Connecticut so they do not need to redesign flag unless they want to wait until PI joins union to make even number of states.

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18 hours ago, par73 said:

So Cuomo is planning on sending the National Guard to appropriate ventilators and protective equipment from Erie County? I wonder what this says?

 

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-executive-order-allowing-state
 

Cuomo's advisors better be smart enough to see that Erie County is soon going to need every ventilator they've got.  Buffalo/Erie County #3 in the state for covid-19 cases, doubling every 5 days, and running about 22% positive, which means we are not testing enough to find all the cases.  Dutchess County similar, #2 in the state and 25% positive tests.

Covid-19 patients may stay on a ventilator 2-4 weeks.  Those ventilators are not coming back in time if these communities get a surge.

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

 

He may get away with this plan for other communities in NYS which are currently running much lower both in % positive tests and in # cases per 1000 population, but he phrases it as a situation where the hospital administrators are worried about getting "paid". 

 

That's not it, they're worried about needing a ventilator for their patient base and not having it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1140 ventilators were donated to NYS today - 140 from Oregon and 1000 from China.

 

 

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/oregon-sends-140-ventilators-to-new-york-gov-kate-brown-we-are-all-in-this-together.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

Im hoping that means our ventilators stay in WNY.

 

I don’t envy the position Cuomo is in though. It’s a no-win decision. Either way people likely die. Not a decision i’d want to make. Clearly the answer is that NYS needs more ventilators (despite what the federal govt. is saying). I’m praying they find enough to fill their needs and nobody upstate or in NYC has to go without them.

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1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

1100 ventilators were donated to NYS today - 100 from Oregon and 1000 from China.

 

Im hoping that means our ventilators stay in WNY.

 

I don’t envy the position Cuomo is in though. It’s a no-win decision. Either way people likely die. Not a decision i’d want to make. Clearly the answer is that NYS needs more ventilators (despite what the federal govt. is saying). I’m praying they find enough to fill their needs and nobody upstate or in NYC has to go without them.

 

Buffalo/Erie county should not be losing ventilators in a sane operational model (Cuomo and his advisors seem pretty sane).  It's pretty clear that Buffalo/Erie and Poughkeepsie/Duchess are going to be the next flares.  Buffalo/Erie County has 900 cases accumulating at a rate to double every 4-5 days.  2-3 weeks, could be ~14,000 meaning might need 700 ventilators, plus more to support surrounding areas with lower-level hospitals that depend upon B/EC for critical care.  How many we got?  According to this article 319? How many occupied already with recovering trauma or surgical patients? 

 

The other choice for Cuomo is to instruct medical personnel to triage.  He clearly does not want to go there.  No one does.

 

But he may be able to get away with swapping around ventilators from other areas of the state.

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