Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Hardhatharry]

Just now, Nervous Guy said:

Whose to say they didn't already have it....the post referred the seasonality discussion.

It's summer in Australia...

[Sundancer]

The case growth and death rate in Italy, while still high (900+/day deaths) is starting to show signs of leveling off. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

 

 

Given the US's geography, our situation may not resemble Italy's so I am not sure we can make projections about when we will see leveling here. I hope because some places instituted lockdowns early (PA and Ohio seemed ahead of the curve), we may see it sooner in those areas. 

 

Reminder: These stats are WITH quarantine. 

 

The US deaths are showing no signs of leveling yet. 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Sundancer

[Gray Beard]

18 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

The case growth and death rate in Italy, while still high (1000/day deaths) is starting to show signs of leveling off. That's likely the effect of the quarantine. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Grim numbers

If you go into the hospital, 45% chance of dying. 
 

[Sundancer]

6 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

Grim numbers

If you go into the hospital, 45% chance of dying. 
 

 

That's not what the 45% stat says but it is nevertheless not a great number that of the 20K of known and resolved cases, 45% were fatalities. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Sundancer

[Bob in Mich]

The situation now reminds me of a collision of huge ships. We still have time before the worst happens but cannot stop it any longer. 

 

The ventilator shortage will be the root cause of the preventable deaths.  The only possible miracle could be the ability to use one machine for multiple patients. I have heard of a few projects working on that. Imo, we should focus more resources on this project 

[Sundancer]

2 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

The situation now reminds me of a collision of huge ships. We still have time before the worst happens but cannot stop it any longer. 

 

 

Agreed. The social distancing is helping though. 

[Gray Beard]

11 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Agreed. The social distancing is helping though. 

I feel as though deaths are the most reliable measure of the situation.  It is a lagging indicator, since it seems to take two or three weeks for a person to die (if a person is going to die) after initially contracting the virus. Since the testing is so inconsistent, the only way to say that the virus has come through an area and then social distancing has caused the impact to be reduced is to see that the number of deaths has declined.  But since that statistic represents a two or three week delay, it’s hard to judge the impact of social distancing in real time.  
 

I know, I know...  we need more testing.  But that costs money and requires cooperation, which is a hard putt. 

[Cripple Creek]

1 hour ago, Bob in Mich said:

The situation now reminds me of a collision of huge ships. We still have time before the worst happens but cannot stop it any longer. 

 

The ventilator shortage will be the root cause of the preventable deaths.  The only possible miracle could be the ability to use one machine for multiple patients. I have heard of a few projects working on that. Imo, we should focus more resources on this project 

There are several projects about this that I've read about.  The most interesting, to me, was one where 1 could be used to assist 4 patients.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, cloistering with your 20 concubines might not be such a bad thing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164535/King-Thailand-self-isolates-coronavirus-German-hotel-harem-20-concubines.html

Edited March 29, 2020 by Cripple Creek

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

The case growth and death rate in Italy, while still high (900+/day deaths) is starting to show signs of leveling off. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

 

 

Given the US's geography, our situation may not resemble Italy's so I am not sure we can make projections about when we will see leveling here. I hope because some places instituted lockdowns early (PA and Ohio seemed ahead of the curve), we may see it sooner in those areas. 

 

Reminder: These stats are WITH quarantine. 

 

The US deaths are showing no signs of leveling yet. 

 

 

I'd just to loop back to this....from reading various on-the-ground reports, I think Italy's cases leveling off may be a testing artifact.

 

Apparently Italy realized one way the virus was spreading, was people coming to hospital for treatment and being tested.   Since they no longer have space in hospital, until patients are critical, they are now just writing them prescriptions for home oxygen and telling them to hydrate and stay home. 

 

They are no longer being tested.  So the apparent leveling off of cases may be an artifact.

 

I don't see signs of leveling off in the Italy death rate above.
 

43 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

There are several projects about this that I've read about.  The most interesting, to me, was one where 1 could be used to assist 4 patients.

 

There is a post summarizing the information about multi-using ventilators in the covid-19 facts only thread.

 

I'll be glad to add any new info anyone finds to it.

 

But even if you instantly expand the ventilator capacity 4x, it's not necessarily going to help: inadequately protected doctors and nurses and aides who are wearing N95 masks and gowns where they should be wearing PAPRs (positive air flow respirators and isolation suits), or surgical masks and face shields where they should be wearing N95 masks and face shields, are going to start falling sick in droves. 

 

Proper care of ICU/ventilated patients is very labor intensive.  If you multiply the ventilators x10, the staffing will not multiply x10; in fact, it will decline from what we currently have due to HCW illness.

 

Job 1 is to ensure proper PPE for HCW.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Gray Beard said:

Grim numbers

If you go into the hospital, 45% chance of dying.

 

Keep in mind for some time in Italy, they are only transporting to hospital the most critically ill patients.  If you can be cared for at home, even if you are miserably ill and require oxygen, the message is "stay home".  So the hospital death rate is skewed by admitting only those most at risk to die.

 

That's actually happening here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html

 

This describes the struggle of a family with a healthy, distance-biking 56 yr old father ill from covid-19.  He is developing pneumonia by x-ray, has had lower oxygen readings, and is struggling to eat and drink, very weak, - in ordinary times he would undoubtedly have been admitted to hospital for IV hydration and nourishment.  Now it's "home care" and text consultation with the occasional clinic visit for xray

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

[Sundancer]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'd just to loop back to this....from reading various on-the-ground reports, I think Italy's cases leveling off may be a testing artifact.

 

Apparently Italy realized one way the virus was spreading, was people coming to hospital for treatment and being tested.   Since they no longer have space in hospital, until patients are critical, they are now just writing them prescriptions for home oxygen and telling them to hydrate and stay home. 

 

They are no longer being tested.  So the apparent leveling off of cases may be an artifact.

 

This could be true, although the lack of testing early may also have kept those numbers depressed. Case measurement remains a dubious measure so that's a good point made by you and another poster.

 

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't see signs of leveling off in the Italy death rate above.

 

Time will tell, but it's been between 600-900/day for almost a week (with the growth admittedly in the last few days). There needs to be a longer term trend to make a conclusion on that but we are not seeing big daily leaps like we still are in the US.  

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Augie]

4 hours ago, Nervous Guy said:

I used to get the Princeton haircut too!  It was all the rage in the 60's!   Here's a step by step to help you out!

https://www.miladypro.com/home/b/barbering/archive/2016/01/20/step-by-step-the-low-maintenance-princeton-haircut

 

Oh, I can’t let my wife see THAT! 

[Punching Bag]

19 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

?

[Edit: I am regularly updating the case count and mortality graphs from that Financial Times article.  The link is found in the 2nd post in the Covid Facts thread.]

 

 

Quote

US states also show very different trajectories. Washington saw the first outbreak in the US, but its death toll has risen relatively slowly since then. New York’s mortality curve is much steeper: the state has the highest death toll of any subnational region in the world at this stage of its outbreak.

 

Would like to see metro areas,  New York City’s mortality curve is much steeper: the NY metro area has the highest death toll of any subnational region in the world at this stage of its outbreak.  The newspapers seem to not be stating this grouping all deaths which makes NYC looking better than it is.

 

Quote

Official data lags behind activity since it is mostly monthly, and China’s data is sometimes viewed as open to political manipulation.

 

US too as government keeps changing measurements and standards.

 

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, Nervous Guy said:

Could the "seasonality" be due to vitamin D levels...former CDC chief postulates it may be.  It's not the temperature, it's exposure to sunlight.  Is he crazy?  Oh and yes, the link is FOX news, it doesn't reflect my political leanings.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/former-cdc-chief-tom-frieden-coronavirus-risk-may-be-reduced-with-vitamin-d

 

In college was biology major. We did test of viruses / bacteria on various substances (small squares) and exposed them to different conditions - sunlight, humidity and temperature.    Viruses / bacteria broke down fastest when sunlight was high, humidity was low and temperature was high with rate varying on structure.   Hot dry sunny is best for destroying them on substances.  This was a long time ago (1990) but expect it is still valid.

[BillsFan4]

https://anest.ufl.edu/clinical-divisions/alternative-n95-mask-production/

Alternative N95 Mask Production

The University of Florida Health’s department of anesthesiology has developed 2 prototypes for respirator masks that can be produced in large quantities using materials already found in hospitals and medical facilities.

 

 

[/dev/null]

21 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Countries need to do a lockdown on China pulling out manufacturing, etc, until China reforms.

 

I've heard some talking head types pontificating how COVID will alter American life after this is all over.  I think America, and the West in general, is going to be rethinking our business relationship with China.  And those jobs that are "never coming back," just might

[Punching Bag]

1 minute ago, /dev/null said:

 

I've heard some talking head types pontificating how COVID will alter American life after this is all over.  I think America, and the West in general, is going to be rethinking our business relationship with China.  And those jobs that are "never coming back," just might

 

I think it will change US as much as 9-11 and all of the changes will not be good but just opportunities for companies to get paid by government and give terrible customer service.

[Foxx]