Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, spartacus said:

https://med.umn.edu/news-events/university-minnesota-trial-shows-hydroxychloroquine-has-no-benefit-over-placebo-preventing-covid-19

fortunately, the UM study did nothing to "prove" the lack of a viable covid treatment.

Studies on SARS and others, back when medicine was actually looking for treatments, clearly show that zinc severely limits the replication of a virus. 

To be effective, however, zinc needs a transport assist to cross into a cell to fight the virus.

  Hydroxychloroquine is one of the items that zinc can use as a transport vehicle. 

 

you would think a better study might want to measure how effective zinc stops the covid virus.

The MN study only evaluates the transport vehicle- not for its effectiveness in transporting zinc - but to cure the disease -= which seems to be a pretty badly designed study.

 

It would be like doing a study to evaluate the success rate of heart surgeons doing heart transplants.

The MN study designed their test to study the taxi cab that transported the surgeon to the hospital and concluded that taxi's did not improve the transplant success rate.

Somehow their study failed to address the efficiency of the surgeon (zinc) that was actually the active element in the success of the procedure.  

 

Spartacus, I "get it" that you are a zinc true believer.

Can you provide evidence that hydroxychloroquine has its effect by transporting zinc across the cell membrane?

   (and I'm talking actual controlled studies with data, not a link from a supplement site claiming to solve the world with their product)

What is the evidence that if this were so, healthy exposed people getting prophylaxis would actually require zinc supplementation to reach adequate levels of zinc?

 

Because otherwise, your analogy is clever but pretty much unsubstantiated

 

 

4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

Yes, I am. Thanks. 

 

OK, but it is not my native language so I'll take time to check my calcs.  Probably be a few days, unless I run into someone online who is doing it for me.

[BillsFan4]

@Hapless Bills Fan it’s not a big deal or anything. I don’t want you to have to put a bunch of time + effort into explaining it. I understand why it can take 4+ weeks. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

@Hapless Bills Fan it’s not a big deal or anything. I don’t want you to have to put a bunch of time + effort into explaining it. I understand why it can take 4+ weeks. 

 

TBH, it's the sort of thing I'd do for shucks and giggles because that's how I roll, but if I'm sharing it I want to be sure I've got the equations right

Right now I have several personal kettles of fish to fry and an accumlating "To Do" list of updates I want to make to the facts-only thread (vaccine update, clinical trials etc)

 

[The Dean]

It's obvious some (a very few) choose to believe the outliers' information on this. They also tend to seek out information that confirms their skepticism and buy completely (and sometime immediately) into anything they find that supports their views. That's classic confirmation bias. 

 

For something like this: a new disease, with various models predicting outcomes, research information released publicly while still very tentative, etc, one should expect to see some contradictory "evidence". I put evidence in quotes as much of it isn't even really evidence yet. It's POSSIBLE evidence.

 

To me, completely untrained in medical science, but very trained in research and data analysis, the most logical way to parse through this all is to:

 

Look to the scientific/medical community for your information. Ignore politicians of any persuasion. Their focus is by necessity distracted by political issues. Unless they are qualified in the field, their opinion on what to do is only as good as those who advise them---and if they listen, of course. Also ignore any media accounts that proport to have "the truth". They do not. 

 

Look to the consensus of experts in the field. Sometimes there are central outlets for that kind of information, who compile and analyze this information. In this case, the CDC, WHO, Dr Fauci, etc. On this forum, I look to Hapless as a great source for what the BEST current thinking is at any moment. I also have friends who are doctors and medical researchers who I consult. While there are some minor differences in their beliefs, they are all pretty much in agreement with the mainstream thoughts on most of the issues.

 

Look to basic logic. The idea that social distancing has done NOTHING to stop the spread of this disease, and the deaths it causes, is almost too ridiculous to consider, IMO. It's a CONTAGIOUS disease that passes from one person to another. Just let that sink in for awhile. The basic flu can be passed by people with no symptoms (this can mean totally asymptomatic or simply have shown no symptoms to date).  That's pretty well documented. Despite some variations in what individual reports may say, why not take the cautious approach? Is there REAL evidence this is spreading in some novel way that is counter to what we already know about viruses?  Places where people are crammed together on a daily basis (NYC for example) had bigger outbreaks (percentage of the population) than the plains states, where the population is more diffuse. Countries and states that put social distancing rules into effect early generally experienced  a lower percentage of their population infected than those who did little---or were late to the party. Yes, you can find the odd outlier. Why focus on that and distract yourself from the main impact of the data on hand?

 

With that said, I think it is useful, and interesting, to look to alternative explanations. Sometimes mainstream thought is mistaken. We're finding more and more evidence that some natural medicines (marijuana is one example) have real benefits that mainstream science dismissed for years.  Look to find information that conflicts with the general consensus, if you like. That's actually a pretty revealing exercise. But don't just buy into it because it reflects your beliefs. Use the same level or analysis you would for any explanation. If it is an exceptional outlier, give it exceptional scrutiny.  The wheels of science more very slowly, by design. Findings have to be tested and retested. On multiple populations/situations. They should be replicated by other scientists and peer reviewed, for methodological and analytical bias and error. Latching on to a new study that contradicts a large body of previous findings is a fools' folly.

 

There is a difference between ignorance and stupidity. Not having all the information is ignorance. When it comes to Covid 19, we are all a bit ignorant. Even those who are actively involved in studying the disease. Actively avoiding information, or chasing/believing only the information that supports your ignorant conclusions is about as stupid as anything I can think of.

Edited June 10, 2020 by The Dean

[plenzmd1]

Agree with all your points @The Dean, except you forgot an extremely important piece , and that is the media. Both MSM and social media create opinion , and the bias, both ways btw, is appalling. 
 

just today , depending on the source , I can read how GA deaths and hospitalizations have fallen dramatically, or read that AZ ICU s are about to be overrun, both used , depending on author, as evidence that one way was better than the other.
 

my point as evolved from the “‘experts” know , to nobody knows. Everything keeps changing, yet I am told to take continually take what the experts say as gospel. 
 

I get Breyer safe than sorry, but we ain’t safe under lockdown, just face a different set of risks.  

[The Dean]

20 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Agree with all your points @The Dean, except you forgot an extremely important piece , and that is the media. Both MSM and social media create opinion , and the bias, both ways btw, is appalling. 
 

just today , depending on the source , I can read how GA deaths and hospitalizations have fallen dramatically, or read that AZ ICU s are about to be overrun, both used , depending on author, as evidence that one way was better than the other.
 

my point as evolved from the “‘experts” know , to nobody knows. Everything keeps changing, yet I am told to take continually take what the experts say as gospel. 
 

I get Breyer safe than sorry, but we ain’t safe under lockdown, just face a different set of risks.  

 

I agree, and I've edited my post. I might add, this forum is part of "the media" as is everything on the Internet. 

 

"Nobody knows" at least for sure, is valid, but not that useful. Some know WAY more than others as they are involved in the research, can understand the data, etc. That's why I preach following the scientific consensus. And it seems to me, the consensus hasn't changed all that much when it comes to the big picture. Sure there are variances, but the basics are still in play and supported, from what I can tell. Don't get lost/confused by the minutiae. 

 

Yes, lockdown has some downsides---but for the most part, they are not life threatening (as long as those in lockdown can afford food and find shelter). I'll take economic risks over real health risks any day. And this is just my opinion as there really isn't an answer to which you think is more important---human life or the economy. I'll side with Frankie Primo on this:

 

Quote

“Healing people, not saving (money) to help the economy (is important), healing people, who are more important than the economy,”-Pope Francis

 

And no, I'm not a practicing Catholic or really religious in any way. But the economy can come back as it has many times. People, once dead, do not. At least until the Zombie Apocalypse.

[shoshin]

Asked this over at PPP too but there seem to be more Covid-knowledgeable people (though less discussion) here: Has anyplace that got hit with an initial hard first wave seen a true second wave yet? 

 

I ask this not to make an argument but just to see the numbers:

 

(1) Nate Silver has lightly posited (not with certainty) that the case rises happening in the US are mostly being driven in areas that never really had a first wave. Yes, they are reopening, but when you look at a place like AZ, it never got hit initially so this is its first big exposure. 

(2) In the EU countries that have reopened a few weeks ahead of us, have they seen a spike up? Answer seems to be no. 

 

It's something to watch, along with the anecdotal reports from Italy and the UPMC medical system that healthcare professionals are seeing far fewer critical patients after that initial crush of patients. 

[BillsFan4]

Quote

Unintentional case study on the use of masks wraps up in Springfield MO.

 

Mask use by both client and stylist

>15 minutes of close contact with a known symptomatic infected person

42 tested people: 0 positives (Everyone was offered testing, many declined - unfortunate)

Everyone (146 people 140 clients 6 stylists): > 2 weeks quarantine with 2x/day health checks by DPH - 0 symptoms

 

No one wanted it to happen, and it wouldn't have been ethical to set up a study like this, but the results are very encouraging. 

 

https://www.springfieldmo.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=6941

The health department is currently gathering further information about the type of masks worn, how they were used, etc

 

 

@Hapless Bills Fan this is your post from the facts thread. I just had a quick question and didn’t want to clog up the other thread.

 

Definitely very encouraging!

 

By any chance do you know how those 2x a day health checks were done? Was it in person? Or over the phone? 

 

Also, do you know if they screened for all potential symptoms? Like the less common and/or unusual symptoms? Or just the more common stuff like fever, cough, loss of smell etc? 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

@Hapless Bills Fan this is your post from the facts thread. I just had a quick question and didn’t want to clog up the other thread.

 

Definitely very encouraging!

 

By any chance do you know how those 2x a day health checks were done? Was it in person? Or over the phone? 

 

Also, do you know if they screened for all potential symptoms? Like the less common and/or unusual symptoms? Or just the more common stuff like fever, cough, loss of smell etc?

 

It was over the phone, as I understand it.  They requested a temperature log. Other than that, I don't know what symptoms they asked about, sorry.

 

Just some more calculations: the planners of the Minnesota hydroxychloroquine prophylaxis study estimated, based on learnings from contact tracing etc in other countries, that 10% of the people they enrolled would become ill (all people with known exposures to covid-19 family members or patients).

 

The actual infection rate they saw in that study was (and again, not everyone was tested, so they may have missed whatever % is asymptomatic), was 13%. 

 

Applied to the 42 haircut recipients, one would expect that 5-6 people would become infected.  Now, expecting 5-6 people and getting zero is kinda borderline for the statistical significance; sure wish everyone had accepted the offered testing. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, shoshin said:

Asked this over at PPP too but there seem to be more Covid-knowledgeable people (though less discussion) here: Has anyplace that got hit with an initial hard first wave seen a true second wave yet? 

 

I ask this not to make an argument but just to see the numbers:

 

(1) Nate Silver has lightly posited (not with certainty) that the case rises happening in the US are mostly being driven in areas that never really had a first wave. Yes, they are reopening, but when you look at a place like AZ, it never got hit initially so this is its first big exposure. 

(2) In the EU countries that have reopened a few weeks ahead of us, have they seen a spike up? Answer seems to be no. 

 

It's something to watch, along with the anecdotal reports from Italy and the UPMC medical system that healthcare professionals are seeing far fewer critical patients after that initial crush of patients. 

 

Good questions. 

 

One example of a clear second wave (that I know of) would probably be Hokkaido, Japan.  They had a covid-19 outbreak driven by seasonal visitors from mainland China attending the Snow Festival in Sapporo at the end of January, including a covid-19 patient from Wuhan China (2 Million visitors total. Visitors would have started to pour in at the start of the lunar New Year, 25 January; there were probably infected people visiting from Wuhan earlier in January)

 

By Feb 28, they had 66 known cases and shut down.

March 18, new cases were in the low single digits and businesses were complaining.  They reopened.

They asked residents to continue to restrict social interaction and stay home if they felt unwell and kept 34 government facilities and many schools closed.

April 9, they had a record number of new cases in one day

April 18, with 80% more new cases than when they'd opened up, they locked down again

 

Another example of a clear second wave (that I know of) would be South Korea.  They were like an epidemiology model in how they revved up testing, enabled contact tracing, set up effective systems to model quarantine, and shut off the spout from 100s of new infections a day down to single-digits or less.  Now, as they've loosened restrictions (allowing professional sports to resume, for example), they're seeing 45 new cases per day in Seoul (region of 25 million people) which are more diffuse and harder to contact-trace than earlier disease clusters.   Public health authorities are worried, but government is reluctant to re-impose restrictions.

Singapore, too, was a model of efficiency initially, but had a huge blindspot in ignoring its migrant worker dormitories.  Guess where their second wave popped up.

 

China - people question its transparency, but it's notable they launched a campaign ~12 May to test every single one of the 11 million residents of Wuhan.  By May 26 (two weeks later) they'd tested 6.5 million Wuhanese.  One kind of doubts they launched such a campaign without significant concern for a 2nd peak. (they used some interesting strategies, too, including pooled testing.  we should be doing that.)

 

So I guess it depends on how you define "second peak" - if you define second wave as another "red emergency, hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses exhausted and overwhelmed, well, No.  If you define second wave as examples where a country seemed to have a sweet lock on the covid-19 thing where cases went to zero and are now seeing dozens of new cases per day with an exponential trajectory brewing - Yeah, that's happening.

In a bunch of places where we opened back up, such as Atlanta GA, we never really finished the "first wave", but just flattened it and slowed it down.  They're still on a "new cases doubling every 5 weeks" trajectory.  It's kind of inevitable in those circs that as long as travel is still taking place, the disease will eventually move from areas with dense population to outlying areas.  Is it a continuation of the first wave or a second wave? You could argue for that, I guess, but it may be a semantic distinction.

We also have to keep in mind that even as cities and areas re-open, a lot of people are taking a "wait and see" approach.  At least in my neighborhood, this is not driven along party lines.  As my Trump-voting neighbor says, "I just don't want to get my 90 yr old mother-in-law sick".  She and her boyfriend are still wearing masks outside the home or when working on their cars, still using Instacart or Walmart curbside pickup for groceries, socializing only outdoors and with a very limited friend group.  If a store doesn't require masks, they shop somewhere else.  If someone who comes to see stuff they're selling doesn't want to wear a mask, they advise them to look elsewhere for their purchase.  So there's almost a sort of pseudo-herd-immunity of people who are still taking actions to block transmission chains.

 

Going back to Hokkaido and making a secondary point.  If we are going to have a second wave, when do we expect it?  People are "all in" looking at the 2 week incubation time and be like "oh, hey, it's more than 2 weeks since we saw photos of Party Cove on Lake of the Ozarks, no spike in cases, We're Good!"  But the timeline from Hokkaido indicates - it took a good 5 weeks from multiple introductions, to the point where disease spiked noticably (to 66 new cases/day).  There's a similar dynamic elsewhere; it's now believed that the introductions to the US were mid Jan/February  and it took a good 6 weeks for cases to surge. 

We have a bit of a different picture now of the disease and how it spreads, than we did back in March.  We know now that there are a large number of people who are either asymptomatic, or who develop mild symptoms and recover uneventfully.  So a "surge" in cases may be in epidemiology terms "cryptic", undetectable outside good surveillance testing, until it makes its way into a pocket of people who are more susceptible and have enough contact with other susceptible people to spread disease.

 

 

Oh wait, what was your question?  Did I answer it?

 

[shoshin]

That’s a good answer but I don’t buy that Korea or Hokkaido ever had a legit first wave, since they both handled it so well. This is kind of my point: I’m not sure anyplace that got hit hard once has had a second wave. It’s just something to watch and I agree: 2 weeks is not a legit incubation period to see what happens. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, shoshin said:

That’s a good answer but I don’t buy that Korea or Hokkaido ever had a legit first wave, since they both handled it so well. This is kind of my point: I’m not sure anyplace that got hit hard once has had a second wave. It’s just something to watch and I agree: 2 weeks is not a legit incubation period to see what happens. 

 

So wait, if your city or country has to deal with a contagious disease, and you successfully stop it at an early stage of its exponential growth, it doesn't count as a "wave"?

Not buying that.  They all had enough infections that if they didn't take prompt action, they coulda been NYC.

 

I think I may see where you're going though?  You may be wondering if there are enough immune people in places the virus hit hard, to keep a second wave from taking off?  It's not likely.  I think the thing to remember is that even places that were hella hard hit, like NYC, Chelsea MA, Spain and Northern Italy, are running about 20-25% prevalence by serology tests.  Most parts of the country are 3-6%, including places that had a significant outbreak such as St Louis.

 

The thing about places that were hard hit, though, is that many people who weren't infected heard the ambulances night after night and saw the refrigerated trucks for corpses, and they're like "yeah, Imma wear my mask" and the stores are all requiring masks because they want to stay open.  I think it's possible that between people who are still working from home and restricting contacts, people who are out and about going to work, and people who are actually recovered and immune, some of the hard hit places have a sort of "effective herd immunity" going down.

 

I think 142 people in Springfield MO say "masks work, even those paper procedure things"

[shoshin]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So wait, if your city or country has to deal with a contagious disease, and you successfully stop it at an early stage of its exponential growth, it doesn't count as a "wave"?

Not buying that.  They all had enough infections that if they didn't take prompt action, they coulda been NYC.

 

What I'm saying is they didn't take the hit of that wave. What they did was amazing--nearly avoiding the wave altogether.

 

Quote

I think I may see where you're going though?  You may be wondering if there are enough immune people in places the virus hit hard, to keep a second wave from taking off?  It's not likely.  I think the thing to remember is that even places that were hella hard hit, like NYC, Chelsea MA, Spain and Northern Italy, are running about 20-25% prevalence by serology tests.  Most parts of the country are 3-6%, including places that had a significant outbreak such as St Louis.

 

The thing about places that were hard hit, though, is that many people who weren't infected heard the ambulances night after night and saw the refrigerated trucks for corpses, and they're like "yeah, Imma wear my mask" and the stores are all requiring masks because they want to stay open.  I think it's possible that between people who are still working from home and restricting contacts, people who are out and about going to work, and people who are actually recovered and immune, some of the hard hit places have a sort of "effective herd immunity" going down.

 

I'm not saying we achieved herd immunity. Outside of maybe just NYC, the herd hasn't caught enough Covid to have much effect. I'm wondering something different: Could it be that there is a population that is more vulnerable to this, who gets hit hard and fast, and on reopening, there is not a second massive wave but just a steady stream of lesser-severity cases? 

 

We went from 0 cases sometime in late Nov.early Dec to 2000 deaths/day in March and April. You'd think that on reopening, going from hundreds of thousands of active cases, we would see a pretty decent rise in other countries, and quickly. But so far we are not. The data is still in progress but it's worth watching what is happening in Europe since they are ahead of us on reopening. 

 

And I discount the south and SW in the US--they are literally going through their initial wave now. 

 

Quote

I think 142 people in Springfield MO say "masks work, even those paper procedure things"

 

People who don't think masks work are unlikely to be worth engaging in meaningful discussions. There are some no-mask advocates here and it boggles the mind. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by shoshin

[K-9]

There is no second wave. The first wave never ended; just brought under control in the hottest spots and that made our improvement stats look really good for a while. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just wanted to say the lockdown was complete BS and i told you so .

 

 

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Just wanted to say the lockdown was complete BS and i told you so .

 

 

Link to the BS claim?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Link to the BS claim?

 

 

"Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2020/05/14/neurosurgeon-says-face-masks-pose-serious-risk-to-healthy-people-n392431?fbclid=IwAR3iBMKeFEQ0Co2BZxcXj9a10MwqOI66JORRz_VO30JCk75VYF3uDe83GYI

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/?fbclid=IwAR1AAViEn2qGHbq2UTln-VatlFkOJV80HY3gxxTi6nGpuA0sgHs1hwWH-uU#205a73d350fa

 

 

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/cdc-says-covid-19-does-not-spread-easily-from-touching-contaminated-surfaces-objects?fbclid=IwAR1M5Dbk5hSj52nf0bBEDqCxdNesG1YWsmk9bO1oSChN67WBTz2gWiocecY

 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds?fbclid=IwAR3sZeuSiVMZ16a_61Oqf59q0Mu5pw4exLsyDPiYC0Dc3jwdi2EXpMYsHq8

 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Just wanted to say the lockdown was complete BS and i told you so .

 

 

So would they have been better  off getting it  earlier?  When the  hospitals were crushed and the Healthcare workers would  have to pick and choose  who gets treated and who  dies. ??

 

Or.   Stay  home  and get it later  when the choice didn't  have to be made?

 

Maybe people  didn't  stay home long enough?

 

The lockdowns were  so the  system didn't  get crushed and ethical choices  were  avoided.

What part  did you miss about why the lockdowns existed?

 

We saw the stats in 1919 AND still made  the same  mistakes  this time.  If healthCare  facilities  get crushed, then the area  opened up too soon.

 

The only  thing this is showing  is that  people are spoiled, impatient  children  that can't  be told what to do that  is best  for the group. They have  to kick, scream, complain... Which only  makes  the process  take even longer.  It's  like raising three year olds.

 

Should  have been  hard universal federal lockdowns till June 1st. States like MA rode  the coattails  of the rest of NE, no stay at home ORDER.  What did you  think was gonna happen  with 50 different  states doing  50 different  things.  Now the sad part, we wasted time and may have to move to hard universal  lockdown.  Again.   Like dealing  with  spoiled children  that can't  sit still.

Edited June 13, 2020 by ExiledInIllinois

[shoshin]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

 

"Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2020/05/14/neurosurgeon-says-face-masks-pose-serious-risk-to-healthy-people-n392431?fbclid=IwAR3iBMKeFEQ0Co2BZxcXj9a10MwqOI66JORRz_VO30JCk75VYF3uDe83GYI

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/?fbclid=IwAR1AAViEn2qGHbq2UTln-VatlFkOJV80HY3gxxTi6nGpuA0sgHs1hwWH-uU#205a73d350fa

 

 

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/cdc-says-covid-19-does-not-spread-easily-from-touching-contaminated-surfaces-objects?fbclid=IwAR1M5Dbk5hSj52nf0bBEDqCxdNesG1YWsmk9bO1oSChN67WBTz2gWiocecY

 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds?fbclid=IwAR3sZeuSiVMZ16a_61Oqf59q0Mu5pw4exLsyDPiYC0Dc3jwdi2EXpMYsHq8

 

 

Do you think people living in high density housing got Covid after being exposed to no humans?

 

Get some basic science. Just because some people can’t trace their exposure doesn’t mean they weren’t exposed. That Cuomo line got traction from a lot of people who latched onto Covid magical transmission and that was not the point. 
 

Your anti-mask stuff at this point makes you sound really ill informed. Not yet as bad as B-Gal but getting there.

Edited June 13, 2020 by shoshin

[BillsFan4]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/09/872441984/modelers-suggest-pandemic-lockdowns-saved-millions-from-dying-of-covid-19

“Two new papers published in the journal Nature say that lockdowns put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus were highly effective, prevented tens of millions of infections and saved millions of lives.”

 

Quote

 

"Our estimates show that lockdowns had a really dramatic effect in reducing transmission," says Samir Bhatt, a senior lecturer at the Imperial College London's School of Public Health, who worked on one of the papers published in Nature. 

 

Bhatt's team analyzed infection and death rates in 11 European nations through May 4. They estimate that an additional 3.1 million people in those countries would have died if lockdowns had not been put in place.

"Without them we believe the toll would have been huge," Bhatt says.

In addition to the paper from Bhatt and his colleagues, Nature also published a separate study from the Global Policy Lab at the University of California, Berkeley. That study analyzed lockdowns in China, South Korea, Iran, France, Italy and the United States.

 

It found that the lockdowns in those six countries averted 62 million confirmed cases.

 

From May:

 

Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/coronavirus-distancing-deaths.html

 

Quote

If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.

 

And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-successful-evidence-from-around-the-world-2020-4

Lockdowns save lives. The evidence is clear around the world.

 

Quote

• Overwhelming evidence suggests that lockdowns help contain coronavirus outbreaks and prevent additional deaths.
• Italy's lockdown prevented around 200,000 hospitalizations, according to a recent study.
• Another study found that Wuhan's restrictions prevented tens of thousands of infections throughout the Hubei province.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

https://fair.org/home/are-people-getting-sick-staying-home-alone-thats-not-what-a-misinterpreted-survey-said/

Are People Getting Sick Staying Home Alone? That’s Not What a Misinterpreted Survey Said

 

 

Quote

First off, the 66% figure has nothing to do with people staying home. That comes from a question about “source of admission,” which asked where people were living before they were hospitalized—whether at “home,” a nursing home, assisted living facility, jail/prison, homeless and so on. 

 

Edit - from the CNBC article in question:

 

“If you isolate, if you take the precautions, your family won’t get infected” said Cuomo.

Edited June 13, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

 

"Cuomo says it’s ‘shocking’ most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2020/05/14/neurosurgeon-says-face-masks-pose-serious-risk-to-healthy-people-n392431?fbclid=IwAR3iBMKeFEQ0Co2BZxcXj9a10MwqOI66JORRz_VO30JCk75VYF3uDe83GYI

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemarieturner/2020/05/22/600-physicians-say-lockdowns-are-a-mass-casualty-incident/?fbclid=IwAR1AAViEn2qGHbq2UTln-VatlFkOJV80HY3gxxTi6nGpuA0sgHs1hwWH-uU#205a73d350fa

 

 

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/cdc-says-covid-19-does-not-spread-easily-from-touching-contaminated-surfaces-objects?fbclid=IwAR1M5Dbk5hSj52nf0bBEDqCxdNesG1YWsmk9bO1oSChN67WBTz2gWiocecY

 

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-will-soon-be-worlds?fbclid=IwAR3sZeuSiVMZ16a_61Oqf59q0Mu5pw4exLsyDPiYC0Dc3jwdi2EXpMYsHq8

 

 

 

This really isn't shocking at all.    Cuomo needs to sit down and talk with his epidemiologists before he opens his yap.

 

In China, the highest "attack rate" for transmission was found within the home.  Per the article in the first link, "a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51."

The question is: who else is in the household, and what are those people doing?  How are they employed, where are they traveling?   If the people live alone, how are they getting groceries and any other assistance they need?

We have a policy in this country of telling infected people who aren't seriously ill "go home and self-isolate".  That's great if you live in a spacious home with multiple bathrooms.  If you live in a cramped apartment with one bathroom and your mother and father or immune compromised sister lives with you, that's called "a perfect setup to spread a contageous disease"

 

[BillsFan4]

Here’s a collection of research papers on pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic spread I put together for @Hapless Bills Fan

 

 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients

Quote

The viral load that was detected in the asymptomatic patient was similar to that in the symptomatic patients, which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients. These findings are in concordance with reports that transmission may occur early in the course of infection⁵ and suggest that case detection and isolation may require strategies different from those required for the control of SARS-CoV. How SARS-CoV-2 viral load correlates with culturable virus needs to be determined. Identification of patients with few or no symptoms and with modest levels of detectable viral RNA in the oropharynx for at least 5 days suggests that we need better data to determine transmission dynamics and inform our screening practices.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0198_article

Potential Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6914e1.htm

Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Singapore

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32091386/

Potential Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhejiang Province, China, 2020

 

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30114-6.pdf

Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection
 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001899

Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Returning Travelers from Wuhan, China

 

Quote

Two of the 114 persons (1.8%) in this cohort of travelers who had passed the symptoms-based screening tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR (cycle threshold value in the two samples, 24.39 and 30.25, respectively).

 

In this effort to evacuate 126 people from Wuhan to Frankfurt, a symptom-based screening process was ineffective in detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2 persons who later were found to have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in a throat swab. We discovered that shedding of potentially infectious virus may occur in persons who have no fever and no signs or only minor signs of infection.

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32329971/

Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7078829/

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e1.htm

Asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in residents of a long-term care skilled nursing facility, king county WA.

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/

Clinical Characteristics of 24 Asymptomatic Infections With COVID-19 Screened Among Close Contacts in Nanjing, China

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

Covid 19 clinical care guidance (CDC)

Quote

Asymptomatic and Pre-Symptomatic Infection

Several studies have documented SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients who never develop symptoms (asymptomatic) and in patients not yet symptomatic (pre-symptomatic).^14,16,18-28 Since asymptomatic persons are not routinely tested, the prevalence of asymptomatic infection and detection of pre-symptomatic infection is not well understood. One study found that as many as 13% of RT-PCR-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children were asymptomatic.¹⁴Another study of skilled nursing facility residents infected with SARS-CoV-2 from a healthcare worker demonstrated that half were asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic at the time of contact tracing evaluation and testing.²⁵ Patients may have abnormalities on chest imaging before the onset of symptoms.^19,20 Some data suggest that pre-symptomatic infection tended to be detected in younger individuals and was less likely to be associated with viral pneumonia.^19,20

 

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32243729/

The Isolation Period Should Be Longer: Lesson From a Child Infected With SARS-CoV-2 in Chongqing, China

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1684118220301134

A Systematic Review of Asymptomatic Infections With COVID-19

Quote

Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in late December 2019, it has brought significant harm and challenges to over 200 countries and regions around the world. However, there is increasing evidence that many patients with COVID-19 are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms, but they are able to transmit the virus to others.

 

 

https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Citation/9000/Prolonged_Viral_RNA_Shedding_Duration_in_COVID_19.98280.aspx

 

 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200611/fired-scientist-rebekah-jones-builds-coronavirus-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos

‘Fired scientist Rebekah Jones builds coronavirus dashboard to rival Florida’s’

 

Quote

Florida's former top coronavirus data scientist has launched a website showing far more COVID-19 information than she said the state allowed her to report as an employee, including statistics contradicting Florida's official coronavirus numbers and the push to reopen the state.

 

Former Health Department geographic data scientist Rebekah Jones has created FloridaCOVIDAction.com, which asserts that the state's widely read public-facing dashboard under reports how many people have tested positive for the pathogen. Florida also overcounts how many have been tested, Jones said....

 

 

Quote

"I decided to stop wallowing in self-pity and do something constructive, something useful with the skill set I've been using for so long," Jones said. "People have a right to know what's going on in a straightforward nonpolitical kind of way."

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This really isn't shocking at all.    Cuomo needs to sit down and talk with his epidemiologists before he opens his yap.

 

In China, the highest "attack rate" for transmission was found within the home.  Per the article in the first link, "a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. Overall, some 73% of the admissions were people over age 51."

The question is: who else is in the household, and what are those people doing?  How are they employed, where are they traveling?   If the people live alone, how are they getting groceries and any other assistance they need?

We have a policy in this country of telling infected people who aren't seriously ill "go home and self-isolate".  That's great if you live in a spacious home with multiple bathrooms.  If you live in a cramped apartment with one bathroom and your mother and father or immune compromised sister lives with you, that's called "a perfect setup to spread a contageous disease"

 

 

And is why the lockdown was useless and this would have all passed by now if they did nothing at all like was done with every so called novel bug that came along before like sars, swine flu ,bird flu etc.

 

 

7 hours ago, shoshin said:

Do you think people living in high density housing got Covid after being exposed to no humans?

 

Get some basic science. Just because some people can’t trace their exposure doesn’t mean they weren’t exposed. That Cuomo line got traction from a lot of people who latched onto Covid magical transmission and that was not the point. 
 

Your anti-mask stuff at this point makes you sound really ill informed. Not yet as bad as B-Gal but getting there.

 

So lets wear masks forever !!!  You should  get informed and stop listening to propaganda.

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

11 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

So would they have been better  off getting it  earlier?  When the  hospitals were crushed and the Healthcare workers would  have to pick and choose  who gets treated and who  dies. ??

 

Or.   Stay  home  and get it later  when the choice didn't  have to be made?

 

Maybe people  didn't  stay home long enough?

 

The lockdowns were  so the  system didn't  get crushed and ethical choices  were  avoided.

What part  did you miss about why the lockdowns existed?

 

We saw the stats in 1919 AND still made  the same  mistakes  this time.  If healthCare  facilities  get crushed, then the area  opened up too soon.

 

The only  thing this is showing  is that  people are spoiled, impatient  children  that can't  be told what to do that  is best  for the group. They have  to kick, scream, complain... Which only  makes  the process  take even longer.  It's  like raising three year olds.

 

Should  have been  hard universal federal lockdowns till June 1st. States like MA rode  the coattails  of the rest of NE, no stay at home ORDER.  What did you  think was gonna happen  with 50 different  states doing  50 different  things.  Now the sad part, we wasted time and may have to move to hard universal  lockdown.  Again.   Like dealing  with  spoiled children  that can't  sit still.

 

the lockdown is a joke and should have not been implemented like was done in 10 states, Sweden and Japan, but they dont know anything right??

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

18 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

And is why the lockdown was useless and this would have all passed by now if they did nothing at all like was done with every so called novel bug that came along before like sars, swine flu ,bird flu etc.

 

Spoken like a man who knows no one who was working in a NYC hospital.

 

Could we have done more or different things that would have made the lockdown more effective?

Yes

 

Could we have done different things sooner that might have eliminated the need for a lockdown, certainly one as prolonged?  Also yes.  The US wrote the playbook for the world on how to handle a pandemic, then we threw it in the trash or ignored it.  Very frustrating.

 

Was the lockdown useless?  No, it saved hospital systems from being overwhelmed in most of the country outside NYC

 

"This would have all passed by now if they did nothing at all" - I know this is asking a lot, but could you actually get some info from a variety of sources perhaps

 

18 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

So lets wear masks forever !!!  You should  get informed and stop listening to propaganda.

 

Tell you what.  You identify (in detail) the sources you consider propeganda and the sources you consider "appropriate fact based sources" and I'll tell you what I think.

[ExiledInIllinois]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

the lockdown is a joke and should have not been implemented like was done in 10 states, Sweden and Japan, but they dont know anything right??

 

 

Sweden is getting crushed dude:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/03/man-behind-swedens-voluntary-lockdown-admits-plans-flaws/amp/

[BillsFan4]

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Spoken like a man who knows no one who was working in a NYC hospital.

 

Could we have done more or different things that would have made the lockdown more effective?

Yes

 

Could we have done different things sooner that might have eliminated the need for a lockdown, certainly one as prolonged?  Also yes.  The US wrote the playbook for the world on how to handle a pandemic, then we threw it in the trash or ignored it.  Very frustrating.

 

Was the lockdown useless?  No, it saved hospital systems from being overwhelmed in most of the country outside NYC

 

"This would have all passed by now if they did nothing at all" - I know this is asking a lot, but could you actually get some info from a variety of sources perhaps

 

 

Tell you what.  You identify (in detail) the sources you consider propeganda and the sources you consider "appropriate fact based sources" and I'll tell you what I think.

 

Its also wrong to say “we did nothing” about those other pandemics.

 

We took action early. We let the CDC lead and do their thing.

 

 

SARS timeline (CDC):

https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

 

- March 12th WHO issues global alert on SARS.

- March 14th: CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC).

- March 15th: CDC issued a health alert notice and travel warnings.

-March 17th: CDC holds 1st briefing on SARS. 14 cases in the US.

-March 20th: CDC issues infection control precautions for aerosol-generating procedures on patients who are suspected of having SARS.

 

-within 2 weeks of WHO alert, the CDC begins utilizing pandemic planning for SARS.

(screening, tracing & quarantine) 

 

- within 15 days of the WHO global alert:

”CDC quarantine staff began meeting planes, cargo ships and cruise ships coming either directly or indirectly to the United States from China, Singapore and Vietnam and also begins distributing health alert cards to travelers.”

 

- April 3rd: team of international infectious disease experts arrives in Guangdong province to investigate the outbreak (including US experts).

 

- April 4th: President George W. Bush adds SARS to the list of quarantinable diseases, which gives the CDC the authority to isolate persons who might have been exposed to the disease.

 

- by May 6th we had successfully contained it’s spread in the US.

 

 

But SARS was nowhere near the scale of covid 19. There were only 9000 cases globally and less than 800 total deaths. The United States had less than 40 total cases. 

 

We’ve been averaging 1000+ deaths PER DAY, every day for months with covid 19. Covid 19 seems to clearly transmit much easier than SARS. I believe the viral load with SARS peaked much later vs Covid 19 (more infectious later vs earlier with covid) and the symptoms were more pronounced (easier to tell if you had SARS). 

 

We took similar actions with other pandemics too. I don’t feel like doing complete timelines for all of them. Here’s a link to the timeline for swine flu:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

 

quick highlights: 

-tested over 1 million within the first month

-issued public health emergency

-asked congress early for $1.5B to fight the virus

- closed schools for 14 days if a single case of h1n1 was found

-980 schools were dismissed in May alone

-anti-viral drugs released to treat h1n1

- FDA approves 4 h1n1 vaccines in Sept.

-1st doses of vaccine released in US by October.

 

Big differences: we had established treatments for influenza already in place (like anti viral drugs). We had more immunity built up to influenza. We had a vaccine by October. The mortality rate for swine flu was 0.02%. We only lost 12,600 total. Our hospitals weren’t being overwhelmed like with covid 19. Once again, not really at all comparable to covid 19.

 

We only had 2 cases of MERS in the US, but it was still monitored closely:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/us.html

 

We never had any (human) cases of bird flu in the US:

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/have-humans-in-the-united-states-ever-contracted-bird-flu

 

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

the lockdown is a joke and should have not been implemented like was done in 10 states, Sweden and Japan, but they dont know anything right??

 

You can post here if the above discussion is too fact intensive. 
 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/forum/14-politics-polls-and-pundits/

Edited June 13, 2020 by shoshin

[Bad Things]

3 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

the lockdown is a joke and should have not been implemented like was done in 10 states, Sweden and Japan, but they dont know anything right??

 

When you say "the lockdown", are you only referring to the half-hearted attempt that occurred in the US?  (Sweden and Japan? Huh?)

[spartacus]

14 hours ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

.  Now the sad part, we wasted time and may have to move to hard universal  lockdown.  Again.   Like dealing  with  spoiled children  that can't  sit still.

probably not -  all talk of new lockdowns is fear porn

- hospitals in fine shape - green line moving down dramatically

- new cases holding steady in orange -  no 2nd wave or spike

            as % of case tested also dropping rapidly

- new tests growing rapidly 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

32 minutes ago, spartacus said:

probably not -  all talk of new lockdowns is fear porn

- hospitals in fine shape - green line moving down dramatically

- new cases holding steady in orange -  no 2nd wave or spike

            as % of case tested also dropping rapidly

- new tests growing rapidly 

 

Should drop as fast as it rose. People are doing something  wrong.

[Bad Things]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

The real reason for all this is for political power by corrupt politicians

 

 

https://thefedupdemocrat.home.blog/2020/03/17/cuomo-uses-covid-19-to-dismantle-new-york-democracy/

 

 

And for total surveillance

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/10/contact-tracing-here-and-its-even-more-frightening/

 

 

Keep taking the blue pill if you believe the main stream media, peace.

 

 

This isn't  even worth replying to.

Embarrassing.

41 minutes ago, spartacus said:

probably not -  all talk of new lockdowns is fear porn

- hospitals in fine shape - green line moving down dramatically

- new cases holding steady in orange -  no 2nd wave or spike

            as % of case tested also dropping rapidly

- new tests growing rapidly 

 

Would you  mind sharing a link for this?  I can't read the text on this graphic.

Cheers.

[BillsFan4]

Study on years of life lost due to covid 19:

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

 

Quote

Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

 

Quote

Years of life lost

For men the average YLL on adjusting for number and type of LTC as well as age was 13.1 (12.2–14.1). For women this value was 10.5 (9.7–11.3). The results were similar under the different assumptions for the age-multimorbidity association and in both sensitivity analyses, whether assuming strongly correlated or independent LTCs (Table 1). For comparison, the YLL based on age alone using the WHO tables was 14.0 and 11.8 for men and women, respectively.

 

It found that people are dying on average over a decade sooner than they were expected to.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

the lockdown is a joke and should have not been implemented like was done in 10 states, Sweden and Japan, but they dont know anything right??

 

Can you give me the list of the 10 states you believe have done well?  Thanks!

 

Sweden, while it did not announce a national lockdown, took more measures than were taken in many of our states, and had better adherence to them from their citizens.  For example, they had central "command and control" directing the measures taken: "The Swedish constitution prohibits ministerial rule – politicians overruling the advice from its agencies is extremely unusual in Sweden – and mandates that the relevant government body, in this case an expert agency – the Public Health Agency – must initiate all actions to prevent the virus in accordance with Swedish law, rendering state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis. Having an expert agency almost completely in control of the country's COVID-19 response without the involvement of politicians set Sweden apart from other countries."

Swedes were asked to socially distance, work from home if able, avoid unnecessary travel, and stay home if ill.  Colleges and secondary schools were closed (although primary schools were open).  The Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test was canceled.  Airlines canceled flights and several airports closed for a period of time.  Events of >50 people were prohibited.  Athletic events were canceled, concerts were canceled.  Ski resorts voluntarily closed during a major holiday weekend.  Cell phone data showed that Swedes by and large showed social responsibility and heeded the requests to curtain travel.  

Additional important factors: they changed the law so that sick pay took effect immediately instead of after a waiting period.  Healthcare is of course, available to all.  And, they started testing in JANUARY.  March 4th, when the US was still struggling to put testing in place, they started testing "pneumonia of unknown cause".

And yes - Sweden has a higher infection rate and higher death rate than its neighboring countries which did impose lockdowns.

Japan's government, due to limitations placed on it after WWII, does not have the ability to order a lockdown.  However, they can urge citizens to stay home.  Mask wearing and a tradition of obedience to authority are also strong.  The Northern island of Japan, Hokkaido, locked down TWICE.  Then there's this discussing "tough lockdown measures" put in place, including closing many businesses.  They also started testing passengers arriving from many countries at the airport - and making them stay in the airport, sleeping on cardboard, until their test results came back
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/13/japanese-cities-empty-after-government-toughens-coronavirus-measures

Perhaps you should choose a different source from which to get your information, if you have been told Sweden and Japan did not impose covid measures similar to the (rather lax) lockdowns in many of our states.

 

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can you give me the list of the 10 states you believe have done well?  Thanks!

 

Sweden, while it did not announce a national lockdown, took more measures than were taken in many of our states, and had better adherence to them from their citizens.  For example, they had central "command and control" directing the measures taken: "The Swedish constitution prohibits ministerial rule – politicians overruling the advice from its agencies is extremely unusual in Sweden – and mandates that the relevant government body, in this case an expert agency – the Public Health Agency – must initiate all actions to prevent the virus in accordance with Swedish law, rendering state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis. Having an expert agency almost completely in control of the country's COVID-19 response without the involvement of politicians set Sweden apart from other countries."

Swedes were asked to socially distance, work from home if able, avoid unnecessary travel, and stay home if ill.  Colleges and secondary schools were closed (although primary schools were open).  The Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test was canceled.  Airlines canceled flights and several airports closed for a period of time.  Events of >50 people were prohibited.  Athletic events were canceled, concerts were canceled.  Ski resorts voluntarily closed during a major holiday weekend.  Cell phone data showed that Swedes by and large showed social responsibility and heeded the requests to curtain travel.  

Additional important factors: they changed the law so that sick pay took effect immediately instead of after a waiting period.  Healthcare is of course, available to all.  And, they started testing in JANUARY.  March 4th, when the US was still struggling to put testing in place, they started testing "pneumonia of unknown cause".

And yes - Sweden has a higher infection rate and higher death rate than its neighboring countries which did impose lockdowns.

Japan's government, due to limitations placed on it after WWII, does not have the ability to order a lockdown.  However, they can urge citizens to stay home.  Mask wearing and a tradition of obedience to authority are also strong.  The Northern island of Japan, Hokkaido, locked down TWICE.  Then there's this discussing "tough lockdown measures" put in place, including closing many businesses.  They also started testing passengers arriving from many countries at the airport - and making them stay in the airport, sleeping on cardboard, until their test results came back
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/13/japanese-cities-empty-after-government-toughens-coronavirus-measures

Perhaps you should choose a different source from which to get your information, if you have been told Sweden and Japan did not impose covid measures similar to the (rather lax) lockdowns in many of our states.

 

 

 

 

Please tell me how horrible all the last novel pandemics were??? Yeah i  thought so. You all are willing ignorant and are not worth my time, good day.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

9 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Please tell me how horrible all the last novel pandemics were??? Yeah i  thought so. You all are willing ignorant and are not worth my time, good day.

 

 

I thought hapless asked you some very reasonable questions and laid out a very strong, well thought out argument using facts.

 

 

Just FYI, Hapless has worked in (and taught) epidemiology. Id love to see her check her credentials against yours... ?

You’re calling the wrong person “ignorant”. She is by far the most knowledgeable person I know when it comes to all this stuff. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

Please tell me how horrible all the last novel pandemics were??? Yeah i  thought so. You all are willing ignorant and are not worth my time, good day.

 

How about you give me a civil answer to my question: what is your list of the 10 states that have "Done well"?  Then we can look at stuff like their covid-19 per capita case rate and population density and so forth and decide if 1) they're actually doing well 2) they've done well because of measures taken or not, or because they have low population density so low risk of transmission etc?

 

Or don't, not a problem to me, but it does tend to give the impression that you're more interested in calling other people "willfully ignorant" without being willing to enter into fact-based discussion.   On the other hand if your premise is that anything in the "mainstream media" or on a major publically maintained website like Johns Hopkins University is untrustworthy and that only Twitter and obscure far-right websites of unknown location, ownership, and sources tell the truth, we probably can't agree on what constitutes a "fact", so discussion would be hard to achieve.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I thought hapless asked you some very reasonable questions and laid out a very strong, well thought out argument using facts

 

Just FYI, Hapless has worked in (and taught) epidemiology. Id love to see her check her credentials against yours... ?

You’re calling the wrong person “ignorant”. She is by far the most knowledgeable person I know when it comes to all this stuff. 

 

Clarification: I've had occasion to work with epidemiologists, but I am not myself an epidemiologist.  I feel strongly that people with a good science background and relevant experience (I do have that) have an obligation to try to share accurate, factual information.  Part of the problem with covid-19 in America has been that we've thrown out the pandemic playbook, which said "put the best experienced epidemiologist you can find in charge, give them a team of experts including logistics, public health, infectious disease, etc - and have the politicians step back and let them communicate with a single voice".  

The countries that have pretty much done that, are the countries that are handling the covid-19 epidemic best and with least economic disruption.