The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Foxx]

papers please...

where have we seen this before?? oh... right...

 

Chile to issue world's first 'immunity passports' to people who have recovered from coronavirus

Chile is expected to issue the world’s first “immunity passports” to people who have recovered from the coronavirus, marking them exempt from quarantines and other restrictions.

 

The so-called immunity passports would allow those who have recovered from the coronavirus or tested positive for the presence of antibodies to return to work and help reopen the country, The Washington Post reported. Paula Daza, an undersecretary in the Chilean Health Ministry, said more than 4,600 people are already eligible for the digital or physical cards. 

 

Residents can apply for cards and be tested for antibodies if they haven’t shown symptoms for the disease, as authorities vowed mass testing would be available. ...

 

 

Montana County Demands People Wear Government-Issued Arm Bands To Do Business

In what might be one of the most over-the-top and draconian responses to coronavirus yet seen in Montana, Valley County is mandating that people wear government-issued pink arm bands in under to purchase products inside of stores. The measure, enforced by the Valley County Health Department, insists that store-owners keep customers out unless they have the pink arm-bands, which denote the customer has been in the area more than 14 days and submitted to quarantine protocol.

 

According to the flier produced by the Valley County Health Department, out-of-towners who lack the government-issued armbands will be prohibited from stores and residents are notified to call law enforcement if they do not comply.

 

The health department even issued a script to warn customers to flee, saying, “You are violating our Governor’s and Valley County’s Health Officer’s orders. I am happy to shop for you with curbside delivery. I will get the items for you and bring them to your car. If you don’t cooperate, you will force me to call law enforcement.”...

 

 

...

[GG]

49 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Still in a state of mostly lockdown, Milan/Lombardy is no longer seeing deaths and cases slowing, they are just remaining level, right at the time when it wants to reopen. This should be the thing to worry about in bigger US cities, maybe especially those US cities that only had fewer cases so far compared to NYC. 

 

 

Lombardy got things under some degree of control through the lockdown, but it doesn't seem likely to last when they raise the restrictions given the high case counts.

 

These stats actually argue against ongoing universal lock downs.  This is further proof that whatever mutation/engineering this virus has, if your region happens to be hit with the deadly strain, there's not much you can do.  For other areas, things should be returning to normal, because the virus isn't as deadly.

 

No one has really provided a cogent explanation for the wide disparity in the virus's infection rates and mortality across regions, countries, states & cities.  

[ComradeKayAdams]

18 hours ago, jrober38 said:

The US has been one of the hardest hit countries in the world because their social programs are so horrible compared to the rest of the developed world. 

 

This is what you get when you have a government that's more interested in corporate bailouts and corporate tax rate cuts than they are about protecting their citizens. 

 

I would replace the bolded with “could very well end up as” since nothing is obvious now and since so many things can happen between now and the late summer. The US government can still put giant band-aids on this economy for the short-term, though it will require bipartisan cooperation plus levels of government intervention that us Americans are historically loath to support (look how difficult it was squeezing one-time $1200 checks out of Congress).

 

The two most immediate crises looming on the horizon are stabilizing small businesses and stabilizing rent/mortgage payments. Next up is getting people to start spending “normally” as they exit quarantine protocol in the face of large economic uncertainty and often without jobs anymore. Further down the road are student loan debts and other consumer debts. Additional temporary UBI checks will likely be necessary to avoid the most suboptimal economic outcomes.

 

Moving forward, I’m optimistic that the dreaded “curve” can remain flat enough for our health care system as we gradually roll out our service economy. Testing, sanitation practices, and social distancing measures are going to be so much better than when we started. But the big elephant in the room is the massive rising number of unemployed Americans without health insurance. Free COVID-19 care may not be enough. Temporary M4A should be on the table.

 

Looks like we’re on the same page when it comes to policing crony capitalism, increasing the social welfare safety net, implementing some form of a Keynesian progressive taxation policy, and probably curbing certain types of deregulatory practices. But do you think the pandemic will accelerate any changes to these because of the impending economic degradation? I’m not so sure change will even happen. The progressive left’s ability to politically organize and fight is unimpressive, to put it mildly. And oligarchs gonna oligarch, so wresting power from them when they own the Fourth Estate seems daunting. However, we may very well be witnessing many conditions analogous to those that sparked the social and political upheaval during the French Revolution. If you are not a Millenial or among the working class, maybe this is not quite so obvious yet. As JFK (I think) said, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” Hopefully cooler heads prevail and enough Americans on all political sides remain open-minded and empathetic toward each other.

 

18 hours ago, jrober38 said:

I think "the rest of the world" is hyperbole.

 

Maybe people living in squalor in Central America, but certainly not the whole world. 

 

I think so too. Many from third-world countries look at the United States as absolute paradise once they experience it. Those from “social democracy” countries do appreciate many aspects of our country: the nice people, the melting pot of cultures, our entertainment industry, and the physical landscape. What they are uncomfortable with here are things like our huge socioeconomic disparities, our religiosity, our cultural obsession with money and status, and our poor civil infrastructure (this one seems to come up a lot).

 

18 hours ago, snafu said:

No, people in those countries who don’t have a defense budget but like the US to protect them are happy where they live — and like to throw shade on capitalism and the freedoms that the US permits it’s citizens to enjoy.

 

This is a very valid point. Other countries need to be spending more for their own national defense. I still believe it’s possible to have both a strong national defense and a reasonable social safety net without drowning in taxes, however.

[shoshin]

Just now, GG said:

 

These stats actually argue against ongoing universal lock downs.  This is further proof that whatever mutation/engineering this virus has, if your region happens to be hit with the deadly strain, there's not much you can do.  For other areas, things should be returning to normal, because the virus isn't as deadly.

 

It hasn't significantly mutated yet to say there's a new strain. And that's a good thing. 

 

[Kemp]

The non-organic rallies:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-coronavirus-lockdown-protests-far-right-guns-facebook-groups-a9473756.html?fbclid=IwAR3ctRvP26Cdy0qdk0TNoGBQAFhs1nAqXP-QfHZb_Xq4wz_sOPmgSQLtFTc

[GG]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

It hasn't significantly mutated yet to say there's a new strain. And that's a good thing. 

 

 

We don't know.  All we have now are statistics, and the numbers point to totally random trends, when you would expect a more uniform distribution within countries and interconnected economies.  But that isn't happening.  Another number worth considering is that the top 5 countries for mortality account for 73% of all Wuhan virus deaths worldwide!  And even within those countries, the mortality isn't uniform.

Edited April 21, 2020 by GG

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, GG said:

These stats actually argue against ongoing universal lock downs.  This is further proof that whatever mutation/engineering this virus has, if your region happens to be hit with the deadly strain, there's not much you can do.  For other areas, things should be returning to normal, because the virus isn't as deadly.

 

No one has really provided a cogent explanation for the wide disparity in the virus's infection rates and mortality across regions, countries, states & cities.  

 

They were saying that NYC got the virus from Europe, and that may be the deadlier strain.

[GG]

Just now, Doc said:

 

They were saying that NYC got the virus from Europe, and that may be the deadlier strain.

 

If you know nothing about infectious disease and look only at the numbers, here's the pattern to explore - Top 5 countries for mortality - Italy, Spain, France, UK and USA.

[shoshin]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/16/opinion/coronavirus-mutations-vaccine-covid.html

Quote

 

Scientists know that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating.

Among the thousands of samples of the long strand of RNA that makes up the coronavirus, 11 mutations have become fairly common. But as far as we know, it’s the same virus infecting people all over the world, meaning that only one “strain” of the virus exists, said Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

 

Only one of those common mutations affects the “spike protein,” which enables the virus to infect cells in the throat and lungs. Efforts to produce antibodies that block the spike protein are central to many efforts to develop a vaccine. Since the spike protein has changed little so far, some scientists believe that’s a sign that it can’t alter itself very much and remain infectious.

 

 

[Troll Toll]

3 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

They were saying that NYC got the virus from Europe, and that may be the deadlier strain.

Considering we don’t know the real numbers out of China... I hesitate to accept that Europe has a “deadlier” strain.

 

I also wouldn’t be shocked if there was a great disparity in quality of care among different regions. In NYC, people don’t seem to care as much about each other. Probably true of many densely populated areas.

[GG]

3 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

Considering we don’t know the real numbers out of China... I hesitate to accept that Europe has a “deadlier” strain.

 

I also wouldn’t be shocked if there was a great disparity in quality of care among different regions. In NYC, people don’t seem to care as much about each other. Probably true of many densely populated areas.

 

China's numbers are immaterial to what's happening in SW Europe.   The deadly strain should have also migrated to the neighboring Asian countries.  It didn't, and skipped over much of Asia into Iran.  

[jrober38]

4 hours ago, westside2 said:

Spoken like a true communist 

 

Nope. 

 

I just find it hilarious that people expect socialist bailouts when they're investment in capitalist enterprises go sour. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by jrober38

[jrober38]

4 hours ago, Cinga said:

Okay, as some of you know, Maryland has been on mandatory mask in public since Saturday and I have quickly reached a conclusion.
That this is WORSE than when we didn't have this rule! Now hear me out before you bash....

We know the most common way of ANY virus spreading is hand/face contact. You touch something that has the virus, then touch your face. Now in a hospital or care facilities, they have hand sanitizer stations all over, and staff uses them all the time.
But in public we don't, and not everyone carries a pocket size bottle with them like I have been doing since this started. And therein lies the problem....
The public is not used to wearing a face covering of any sort. And what I see now is people constantly reaching up to readjust that mask or bandana, or whatever they have to cover their face (one of my favorite I saw was a crocheted scarf). Touching their face in the process, right after touching that card reader, or shopping cart that is not sterile and even the mask that may now be contaminated.
I really think as a whole, society was doing pretty good with the don't touch your face, wash your hands a lot thing. However this just ruined all of that...

Just my thoughts....

 

Masks aren't being used to primarily prevent the wearer from getting COVID-19, their primary use is to prevent the wearer from infecting other people. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by jrober38

[Luka]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you know nothing about infectious disease and look only at the numbers, here's the pattern to explore - Top 5 countries for mortality - Italy, Spain, France, UK and USA.

 

My thinking is the antibody research is going to show that this virus originated in the fall of 2019 at the latest, most likely earlier than that. So you figure you have a minimum of 3 months of unrestricted travel all across the globe. Rome, Paris, London, NYC and Madrid. Not only major global destinations but also hubs for international travel.

[Justice]

4 hours ago, Cinga said:

Okay, as some of you know, Maryland has been on mandatory mask in public since Saturday and I have quickly reached a conclusion.
That this is WORSE than when we didn't have this rule! Now hear me out before you bash....

We know the most common way of ANY virus spreading is hand/face contact. You touch something that has the virus, then touch your face. Now in a hospital or care facilities, they have hand sanitizer stations all over, and staff uses them all the time.
But in public we don't, and not everyone carries a pocket size bottle with them like I have been doing since this started. And therein lies the problem....
The public is not used to wearing a face covering of any sort. And what I see now is people constantly reaching up to readjust that mask or bandana, or whatever they have to cover their face (one of my favorite I saw was a crocheted scarf). Touching their face in the process, right after touching that card reader, or shopping cart that is not sterile and even the mask that may now be contaminated.
I really think as a whole, society was doing pretty good with the don't touch your face, wash your hands a lot thing. However this just ruined all of that...

Just my thoughts....

 

I can’t find hand sanitizer anywhere down here in Miami and I’m running dangerously low on the huge bottle I purchased a while ago before all this began. Rubbing alcohol is equally as tough to find. 
 

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Here are the stats as of today: 

 

Almost 27,000 of the 42,000 deaths (64%) are in and around the NYC metro area.

 

For those of you who live in that area, you need to realize this is very much so a regional story. This is not to downplay its seriousness but the rest of the country is simply not experiencing what the NYC area has dealt with.

I fear that if they don’t come up with a cure or vaccine NYC will never be the same again. 

[GG]

Just now, Luka said:

 

My thinking is the antibody research is going to show that this virus originated in the fall of 2019 at the latest, most likely earlier than that. So you figure you have a minimum of 3 months of unrestricted travel all across the globe. Rome, Paris, London, NYC and Madrid. Not only major global destinations but also hubs for international travel.

Then why not Berlin, LA, SF?  Rome was not as affected.  

[Justice]

32 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

Considering we don’t know the real numbers out of China... I hesitate to accept that Europe has a “deadlier” strain.

 

I also wouldn’t be shocked if there was a great disparity in quality of care among different regions. In NYC, people don’t seem to care as much about each other. Probably true of many densely populated areas.

Maybe the mortality rate varies depending on how each healthcare system handles it more than anything else. 

[spartacus]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Here are the stats as of today: 

 

Almost 27,000 of the 42,000 deaths (64%) are in and around the NYC metro area.

 

For those of you who live in that area, you need to realize this is very much so a regional story. This is not to downplay its seriousness but the rest of the country is simply not experiencing what the NYC area has dealt with.

Where are you getting 27k deaths

Below NYS site, as of 4/20, shows 14k fatalities - 90% of which have co-morbidity causes of death

 

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

 

[Luka]

29 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

Considering we don’t know the real numbers out of China... I hesitate to accept that Europe has a “deadlier” strain.

 

I also wouldn’t be shocked if there was a great disparity in quality of care among different regions. In NYC, people don’t seem to care as much about each other. Probably true of many densely populated areas.

 

You've got think that if this virus occurred naturally and began to spread, it must've been a couple months of severe illnesses before someone was even brave enough to look into it in China, let alone warn the outside world. I think the big mistake is people looking at this situation as if we discovered this strain of coronavirus the moment it transferred from one human to the next.

[Cinga]

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Masks aren't being used to primarily prevent the wearer from getting COVID-19, their primary use is to prevent the wearer from infecting other people. 

Not surprising, you lost the whole meaning of my post.

 

Point is not other people, the point is it is dangerous for the multitude forced to wear a device they are not used to by making them touch their own face more often than they normally would.