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Dkollidas

Position-by-position analysis of Beane’s Statements

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3 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Nice takes... all makes sense to me.... except AJ Green unless it’s a cheap trade. 

AJ Green was a great WR, but he has missed a lot of games recently (missed all of 2019 and played in 9 games in 2018) and will be 32 before the season starts.  I’d be good with acquiring him in free agency for a reasonable contract, but not trading for him.  That’s because the only way Cincy trades him is if they tag him.  No way am I paying him tag money or starting contract negotiations from there.  Spotrac estimates his market value at $18.2M total for 2 years. Even at that price I probably pass unless the good, younger FA WRs are all off the market.  We have vets like Beasley to show the yoots the way so we don’t need him for that.  Also where’s his head at?  Is he looking for a last, big payday or a ring?  I’d pass on him if it’s the former unless he’d take a heavily incentivized deal.  If it’s the latter we might be able to sell him, but we’re probably not his best option.  I just don’t think this one comes together for us. 

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3 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

   The problem with letting guys like Shaq go and cutting guys like Murphy is that if they replace them through FA they won't get a comp pick and likely they will be paying their replacement a similar amount to what they ask.

  If they draft a DE R1, then they will get a second tier WR and vice versa. So how do the Bills get a DE they want? 

 I was looking at overthecap.com and the guys at the bottom are going to have to make some hard choices. Players like Everson Griffin can save 13 mill against the cap by being cut. Jags have Calais Campbell, Ngakoue and Josh Allen. People expect them to let go Ngakoue (because that's what they want for their team), but it's more likely that 33year old Campbell is let go. This is where the late round picks can come in handy. If the Bills were to offer a 4th or fifth in exchange for Griffin or Campbell they wouldn t need to compete for them in FA and they wouldn't count against the comp pick formula.

 

Nice way of looking at it. Could be said for AJ Green if he’s tagged as well. Maybe send them a 2021 3rd that could become a 2nd based on one or more of production/playing time/contract extension.

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4 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:


you’re cracked if you don’t think Phillips will command something like that this offseason. Not saying the bills would or should match, but an offer like that will happen. Look at the DL numbers bro.

All it takes is one good season and some team is going to be ready to give up top dollar.

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17 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

All it takes is one good season and some team is going to be ready to give up top dollar.

Spotrac estimates market value for some FAs.  They have not done it yet for Phillips, but they have for Shelby Harris who’s not a bad comparison.  Their estimate is 3 years at an AAV of $11.7M.  That’s sobering.  Both had their breakout season in 2019:

 

Harris: 638 defensive snaps, 28 solo tackles, 21 assisted tackles, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Phillips: 543-25-6-9.5-1

 

If Spotrac is correct about Harris, then that $7M-$8M range actually looks a little low for Phillips.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/shelby-harris-14646/market-value/

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Couple comments

 

RB/TE  I'm not one for asking why can't a player move to another position like often see posts here.  Having said that for as little the fullback is used, could they get Lee Smith to become a combination blocking TE and FB for the few times they really need a full back, reasoning being it would save a roster spot.  I'd also like to see them sign a big bruising type RB who if you line up both him and Singletary, could also kind of serve as a FB when giving the ball to him.

 

OT I believe Waddle is a FA as only had a one year deal.  Probably can easily re-sign if they desire.

 

OL  I do agree with not paying too much for Spain.  I think if he walks, then may see Ford move to tackle.  If he is resigned, then agree they keep Ford at RT

 

WR I think they sign a decent FA someone of Browns ability, but with size and draft a WR maybe in round #2.  WR is one of the harder positions for rookies to look good fast so makes more snese to not depend on him the first year.  Based on the numbers then could mean Williams, McKenzie & Foster are all gone.  Of the three most likely to be back I'd guess on McKenzie.

 

DE agree they need help there

 

You left out punter

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Good OP.

 

I do NOT want to pay Derrick Henry, but we do need a power RB for next year. (Can you the DH money elsewhere on the team).

 

After seeing Clowney play more, I think he would be a good piece on the team.  A great pass rusher makes everyone look better because of less time in the pocket / constant pressure on QB.

 

Need BETTER WR's for Allen to run to.  I would like to get a FA and one in the draft (high pick) One of the top 5 hopefully.

 

Keep shoring up the OL/DL.

 

Bills are in a great position to excel next year with the correct new pieces. (Division crown is within reach with more offensive weapons)

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8 hours ago, PaoloBillsFanFromItaly said:

I will also like to add a run thumper LB to activate against teams like Eagles, Titans, Ravens.

All this "modern LB", "big nickel" stuff payed big dividents against most teams but we get exposed to the run here and there.

I hope Edumnds can acquire "run thumping" abilities in his 3rd year but I am skeptical.

Statistically it is much more valuable and important to be able to stop the pass, not the run.

 

At least in today's game.

 

Our defense is as good as it is because the coaching staff values speed and covering ability over other factors, like being a "run thumper".

 

 

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9 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Listening to the press conference of both McDermott and Beane, but in particular Beane, I felt I could offer my attempt to analyze the typically cryptic GM-speak regarding the future plans for the roster this off-season on a position-by-position basis...

 

QB:

Easy enough. Josh is their guy. They believe he has it in him to be the guy. I think discussing him Beane may have slightly given away where they plan to improve the most. More on that shortly. Nothing specific said, but I’d assume Barkley is under contract and will likely stay that way.


RB: 

Singletary showed why they picked him where they did, he’s a talented starter. Gore helped Devin immensely, but unless they can’t get anyone they like in free agency or the draft that can lighten Singletary’s load, Gore won’t be back in 2020.

 

WR: I believe when discussing Allen, Beane lightly discussed their job of getting him weapons. That,  COMBINED WITH going after Antonio Brown last off-season, AND purportedly being in on AJ Green at the deadline, AND watching Allen’s desire to hit a big target like Duke Williams in the Houston game, will put the onus on management to get their guy more weapons in order to help him take that next step. Could we maybe see Williams, McKenzie & Foster all be replaced next season?

 

TE: They’re really impressed by Knox, showed a lot of potential for such a raw prospect. They’ll keep Kroft around for leadership, Sweeney and Smith will battle to be the 3rd TE suited up on game days. I expect little action at this position this off-season.

 

OT: He didn’t commit to Ford at tackle, but I believe that’s what they want. They still have Bates in the roster and will get Waddle back next season after he missed all of this year, and Nsekhe will be healthy. So there will be competition here but I believe they’re looking for Ford to have a big off-season and make a marked improvement in year 2.

 

OG: I think Spain is a guy they won’t over commit to. He was signed later in free agency last season, and there will he guys of his caliber available for the same term/cost this year as well. If he gets a multi-year deal in free agency, Buffalo will let him walk. They still have Long as a backup who can start. And I expect if they draft a player it’ll be a day 3 guy who can compete here. 
 

C- Nothing said really but I believe they’re happy with Morse and Feliciano showed he can back up in the middle when needed.

 

OL overall: I think they want to see another year of these guys together. If Spain leaves they’ll look to improve LG, but they won’t chase him for big money, multiple years.

 

Defensive end: They definitely want to add an edge rusher. That’s what I got out of it. Beane spoke to how hard elite players at the position are to acquire. It makes me believe they will attack this position in free agency as opposed to the draft. They’ll attempt to bring back Shaq on a 2-4tear deal, he’s one of their guys. But they won’t pay more than $8M or so. I think Murphy will be gone. Hughes is a player they hope to see rebound but if he doesn’t 2020 could be his last year here, hence the urgency to upgrade edge rusher. I also believe they consider Lorenzo more of an edge than LB, and that will be another reason to upgrade the position as well. They’ll basically try to get Shaq back, along with Hughes, and then try to upgrade Murphy. When they upgrade Murphy, Murphy will be cut. Johnson will challenge Mike Love for the 4th spot on the roster.
 

DT: Phillips wants to test the market. I think they believe he’ll be disappointed by what he finds. Beane spoke to guys having different ideas of their market value as opposed to their team. I think Beane has a better idea of what Jordan is worth. He didn’t make the pro bowl, wasn’t an all-pro and seemed disappointed by both. He had nice sack numbers, but for a 340lb man he gets pushed around a lot up front. I also believe he is one player that they will “have frank discussions about” as Beane alluded to.

 

LB: Edmunds & Milano are two of the guys they want to keep as part of their core, could see Milano (along with Dawkins, who I forgot to mention above) get extensions this summer. Vosean Joseph basically redshirted and will be given a chance to compete for playing time. They’ll probably bring in a cheaper veteran to be a SAM linebacker of sorts, but I wouldn’t expect any huge investment with the amount of nickel they play and their ability to line up with a “big nickel” using Siran Neal in the slot. 
 

CB: They will extend the 5th year option to Tre White. He will play out 2020 on his deal and likely sign an extension in the summer of 2021 to tack onto his 5th year. Kevin Johnson will probably be brought back unless he gets some ridiculous offer, and he will again compete with Wallace for playing time. I expect a mid-round Pick used toward this position as well.

 

S: I think they want to see if Jaquan Johnson can be solid enough at safety to eventually replace Poyer. Hyde is the more important of the two and so he will be the priority, but I believe they view Poyer as someone that they’ll need to have a discussion about, missing a couple tackles in that big game (everyone did towards the end, but Poyer looked a bit slow to the ball as well, he might’ve just been gassed though). But if Jaquan Johnson can be a viable replacement, it’s another area where they can move an expensive contract out in exchange for a rookie deal and that’s all they want to keep doing especially as Poyer gets closer to the big 3-0.

 

 

Some of this I obviously surmised without comments being specifically made about a position group, but this is my general gist on how they feel about the roster.

 

If I had to make a guess I would say

1. They will bring back Shaq.

2. Jordan Phillips tests the market, is disappointed and stays in Buffalo on a 2yr deal around $7M-$8M per year.

3. Quinton Spain leaves

4. Kevin Johnson brought back on a 2yr deal.

5. DE is pursued in free agency. Ngakoue, Beasley, Fowler, Quinn will all be targets. 
6. Receiver and offense in general will be added through free agency and the draft. Still wouldn’t count out an AJ Green trade if he is tagged by the Bengals. 

A few quick things come to mind- AJ Green will not be traded to us if he’s tagged, his market value is 9-10m and paying him at his tagged price isn’t something our FO will do.  Saying we will get Waddle back next year is pretty presumptuous considering he was on a 1 year deal and is a UFA.   I don’t think Murphy is going anywhere.  He’s incredibly inexpensive, I believe he’s hitting the cap at 1,750,000 or so annually.... he exceeds his contract, thus won’t be cut IMO.  I think Milano is nice in passing situations, but how many times this year did being undersized hurt us? I like him as a 4th LB- which, based on our roster means he stays as a 3rd or we address the position aggressively- he probably stays as a 3rd...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CountryCletus said:

A few quick things come to mind- AJ Green will not be traded to us if he’s tagged, his market value is 9-10m and paying him at his tagged price isn’t something our FO will do.  Saying we will get Waddle back next year is pretty presumptuous considering he was on a 1 year deal and is a UFA.   I don’t think Murphy is going anywhere.  He’s incredibly inexpensive, I believe he’s hitting the cap at 1,750,000 or so annually.... he exceeds his contract, thus won’t be cut IMO.  I think Milano is nice in passing situations, but how many times this year did being undersized hurt us? I like him as a 4th LB- which, based on our roster means he stays as a 3rd or we address the position aggressively- he probably stays as a 3rd...

 

$1,750,000 is his dead cap.

Cutting him saves $7,200,000

total cap is a not inexpensive $8,950,000

Edited by Dat

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17 minutes ago, Dat said:

 

$1,750,000 is his dead cap.

Cutting him saves $7,200,000

total cap is a not inexpensive $8,950,000

Thank you- makes sense now

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Fwiw, in Beane's presser, a member of the media said that Spain wants to come back, and has told his agent that, as well. No idea what he could get on the open market, but he's the right age (28), and hasn't actually earned big money through his career. I think he could be given a 3 year deal, at reasonable money, and build some continuity. He wasn't the worst lineman on our line, and seemed to generally gel quite well with Dawkins.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

 

 

If I had to make a guess I would say

1. They will bring back Shaq.

2. Jordan Phillips tests the market, is disappointed and stays in Buffalo on a 2yr deal around $7M-$8M per year.

3. Quinton Spain leaves

4. Kevin Johnson brought back on a 2yr deal.

5. DE is pursued in free agency. Ngakoue, Beasley, Fowler, Quinn will all be targets. 
6. Receiver and offense in general will be added through free agency and the draft. Still wouldn’t count out an AJ Green trade if he is tagged by the Bengals. 

 

If Spain leaves, Ford will most likely replace him, as he played LG in college and is better at that position. This means we will have to get a good OT.

Edited by egd

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We should be extending Tre White this summer.

 

He's the best player on the team. Lock him up. 

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disappointed if we don’t add a “big receiver” and TE at the same time.  A guy like Hooper or Hunter is a 2 for one deal.  Two good TE’s are a young QB’s friend and create mismatches.  

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1 hour ago, Buddo said:

He wasn't the worst lineman on our line, and seemed to generally gel quite well with Dawkins.

Except on that 3rd & 4th down when Josh was getting jailbreaked/sacked.

 

But yes, overall SPain was a good acquisition.  I'd be happy with a 3 year deal at average vet guard money.

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

We should be extending Tre White this summer.

 

He's the best player on the team. Lock him up. 

I don't think we can until after year 3

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12 hours ago, Buddo said:

Fwiw, in Beane's presser, a member of the media said that Spain wants to come back, and has told his agent that, as well. No idea what he could get on the open market, but he's the right age (28), and hasn't actually earned big money through his career. I think he could be given a 3 year deal, at reasonable money, and build some continuity. He wasn't the worst lineman on our line, and seemed to generally gel quite well with Dawkins.

Good news.  Bring Spain back

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14 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't think we can until after year 3

 

He just finished year 3. 

 

Zeke Elliott just held out at the same point of his rookie deal for a new contract. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

He just finished year 3. 

 

Zeke Elliott just held out at the same point of his rookie deal for a new contract. 

I haven't adjusted well in the past 9 days...

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