The 50/50 Ball to...DiMarco?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Just when I began to forget about this game, someone bumps this thread and depresses me.

[Rochesterfan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is exactly how I saw that play and said so at the time. I don't think it was a called bomb to DiMarco. I actually think DiMarco and Smith are clear out routes for Brown - who as you say comes open late across the middle. Looks as though the timing is off slightly and Brown might have got held up slightly earlier in his route which is part of the reason I think Josh drifts and loses patience. But again, as you say the check down was there all day. 

 

I got flamed for it at the time but I don't think that was a bad play design to beat a max coverage look. DiMarco and Smith actually attract 4 defenders - that was there job. Which means suddenly means from 5 against 9 your two least likely weapons have attracted 4 and given your three better weapons only 5 defenders to beat - and as the play develops and you see the underneath linebacker is basically spying Josh (and starts to rush him late in the down) - it means the numbers game becomes 4 on 3 and much more favourable for Brown or Singletary to make a play. 

 

The play design and use of DiMarco as the X was to dictate and tell Josh the coverage.  
 

DiMarco and Smith are attacking specific areas of the field to pull the coverage to them and that worked fine.  Two guys everyone is complaining about being out on routes actually draw 4 of the 9 coverage men to them. 
 

The design seems to be a play set up for Brown press inside and then break out with single coverage trailing him.  That also seems to work fine.  Not sure why the timing or Josh’s read is off, but it looks like the play worked as designed and the read and execution by Josh was what was lacking.

 

Singletary was most likely either a fall back safety valve or most likely the play is designed with the QB reading the coverage - if he gets one coverage - he reads the right side with 3 receivers with Brown as the primary receiver.  If he gets a different look - he reads the left side and Singletary may be the read.  That is typically how the NE offense worked - you ran zone beaters on one side and man beaters on the other - Brady identifies the coverage pre-snap - knows which side and which receiver should be open.  Makes a simple throw.  Josh just is not there yet and that is ok.  The reading and understanding took years and lots of consistency from the Patriots- I will give them time.

 

For all of the complaining- this is where I get frustrated.  You can see the play design and call is not the problem.  The right side had 5 in coverage and 4 are drawn to the 2 guys everyone wants out of there.  The 1 WR should have been open and gotten a nice gain, but the execution was at fault as it was most of the season.

[Cripple Creek]

16 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm more disappointed Dimarco is still on this team than some stupid hail mary thrown to him. He's the Chris Kelsay of this Bills era.

Oh no, he is so much less than that.

[oldmanfan]

You can carp and complain all you want but one thing remains true:  if DiMarco times his jump just a fraction earlier the pass is complete.  Allen put it where he could catch it and he had position on both of the defenders.  Not to say Allen's progress won't come primarily from reading coverages -we all get that.  But this play was more on DiMarco and not Allen.

 

When Qbs takes shots down the field, the criticism is that he should have checked down.  When they check down, the criticism is to take shots down the field and let someone try to make a play.  Hysterical.

[colin]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

You can carp and complain all you want but one thing remains true:  if DiMarco times his jump just a fraction earlier the pass is complete.  Allen put it where he could catch it and he had position on both of the defenders.  Not to say Allen's progress won't come primarily from reading coverages -we all get that.  But this play was more on DiMarco and not Allen.

 

When Qbs takes shots down the field, the criticism is that he should have checked down.  When they check down, the criticism is to take shots down the field and let someone try to make a play.  Hysterical.

 

honestly, while what you say is insane it is totally true.

 

the fact that we have this blocking/run heavy formation in, but pass out of it, and fool NO ONE, as the texans dropped nine, that allen panics and throws up a ball that i was saying oh no oh no when he threw it, and that the ball was actually a good one and in the perfect spot for dimarco to catch it and no one else and then dimarco just looks like a guy who's never ever caught a pass is the perfect summary of the bills entire season on O.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, colin said:

 

honestly, while what you say is insane it is totally true.

 

the fact that we have this blocking/run heavy formation in, but pass out of it, and fool NO ONE, as the texans dropped nine, that allen panics and throws up a ball that i was saying oh no oh no when he threw it, and that the ball was actually a good one and in the perfect spot for dimarco to catch it and no one else and then dimarco just looks like a guy who's never ever caught a pass is the perfect summary of the bills entire season on O.

It’s not insane.  Why is it insane?  Throws it on the money to a guy that should have caught the ball.  He panicked?  Bull.

 

You can take any incompletion in any game and pick it to death about who a QB should or should not have thrown to.

[colin]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

It’s not insane.  Why is it insane?  Throws it on the money to a guy that should have caught the ball.  He panicked?  Bull.

 

You can take any incompletion in any game and pick it to death about who a QB should or should not have thrown to.

 

i think he panicked because he held the ball to long and didn't look motor's way.  it's insane because it is insane, dimarco running deep w two defenders around him where the D dropped 9 and the ball was there for him to catch, doesn't that seem insane to you?

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, colin said:

 

i think he panicked because he held the ball to long and didn't look motor's way.  it's insane because it is insane, dimarco running deep w two defenders around him where the D dropped 9 and the ball was there for him to catch, doesn't that seem insane to you?

Insane that we could have had a play to put us in position to win?  Not really.

 

I think it’s easy for MMQBs like you and me to sit on the sidelines and be critical.  We don’t know the nuances of the play call and multiple other variables.  For example, people here keep saying it the play was designed for Brown, and that he came open late.  Assuming they’re even right on the play design, the critical word there is late. If he comes open too late maybe Allen goes down on a sack.

 

Could he have checked down?  Sure.  Would Daboll tell him film review he should have gone there?  Maybe.  But I see a disturbing trend with the critique of Allen.  Not that he needs to read defenses better, we all agree there.  But the disturbing thing is we expect it to all be on Allen and not place expectations on his receivers to sometimes make a play.  We see receivers on other teams make great plays on the ball all the time and we don’t criticize their QB for messing up, do we?  No.

 

Aleen has plenty of things to work on, but on this one play he put it on the money and DiMarco has to make a play.  He didn’t.  Question:  if it had been a WR he threw to there and not a FB would it change your opinion of the play?

[colin]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Insane that we could have had a play to put us in position to win?  Not really.

 

I think it’s easy for MMQBs like you and me to sit on the sidelines and be critical.  We don’t know the nuances of the play call and multiple other variables.  For example, people here keep saying it the play was designed for Brown, and that he came open late.  Assuming they’re even right on the play design, the critical word there is late. If he comes open too late maybe Allen goes down on a sack.

 

Could he have checked down?  Sure.  Would Daboll tell him film review he should have gone there?  Maybe.  But I see a disturbing trend with the critique of Allen.  Not that he needs to read defenses better, we all agree there.  But the disturbing thing is we expect it to all be on Allen and not place expectations on his receivers to sometimes make a play.  We see receivers on other teams make great plays on the ball all the time and we don’t criticize their QB for messing up, do we?  No.

 

Aleen has plenty of things to work on, but on this one play he put it on the money and DiMarco has to make a play.  He didn’t.  Question:  if it had been a WR he threw to there and not a FB would it change your opinion of the play?

 

 

i think you are completely missing the point here.  im not even saying good or bad, i'm saying insane.  maybe you'd be more comfortable with crazy or wacky?  

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, colin said:

 

 

i think you are completely missing the point here.  im not even saying good or bad, i'm saying insane.  maybe you'd be more comfortable with crazy or wacky?  

No I get where you’re going.  No I don’t think it was insane or whacky.  He saw DiMarco out there, thought he could make a play.  And he should have. Why is it whacky?

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

The play design and use of DiMarco as the X was to dictate and tell Josh the coverage.  
 

DiMarco and Smith are attacking specific areas of the field to pull the coverage to them and that worked fine.  Two guys everyone is complaining about being out on routes actually draw 4 of the 9 coverage men to them. 
 

The design seems to be a play set up for Brown press inside and then break out with single coverage trailing him.  That also seems to work fine.  Not sure why the timing or Josh’s read is off, but it looks like the play worked as designed and the read and execution by Josh was what was lacking.

 

Singletary was most likely either a fall back safety valve or most likely the play is designed with the QB reading the coverage - if he gets one coverage - he reads the right side with 3 receivers with Brown as the primary receiver.  If he gets a different look - he reads the left side and Singletary may be the read.  That is typically how the NE offense worked - you ran zone beaters on one side and man beaters on the other - Brady identifies the coverage pre-snap - knows which side and which receiver should be open.  Makes a simple throw.  Josh just is not there yet and that is ok.  The reading and understanding took years and lots of consistency from the Patriots- I will give them time.

 

For all of the complaining- this is where I get frustrated.  You can see the play design and call is not the problem.  The right side had 5 in coverage and 4 are drawn to the 2 guys everyone wants out of there.  The 1 WR should have been open and gotten a nice gain, but the execution was at fault as it was most of the season.

 

Yep. 100% agree. I said this on the day of the game when people were crying blue murder about the call. The call was fine, the execution failed. DiMarco and Smith drew defenders. Brown and Singletary - the playmakers you want to have the ball - both get opportunities to receive the ball.

[colin]

28 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No I get where you’re going.  No I don’t think it was insane or whacky.  He saw DiMarco out there, thought he could make a play.  And he should have. Why is it whacky?

 

because we have this heavy jumbo squad of wooden players in there, which makes sense if you are running, but dabol is so clever that he passes out of it!  except dabol is also so predictable that the D plays pass the whole way dropping 9 (who drops 9?!?) and they keep a spy (or two) so allen can't run and then allen throws the ball and we all hold our breath and strangely it was right where the FB needed it (and he was blanketed at the time because he is so slow) and then he just looks like a goof and mistimes his jump and misses what would have been a big gain.

 

improbable, scary cuz so much coulda gone wrong w the stakes so high, ball looks like it was held too long and it also looks like allen missed the RB open in the flat, and then it almost worked.  to me that's insane and basically what the bills O was all season.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, colin said:

 

because we have this heavy jumbo squad of wooden players in there, which makes sense if you are running, but dabol is so clever that he passes out of it!  except dabol is also so predictable that the D plays pass the whole way dropping 9 (who drops 9?!?) and they keep a spy (or two) so allen can't run and then allen throws the ball and we all hold our breath and strangely it was right where the FB needed it (and he was blanketed at the time because he is so slow) and then he just looks like a goof and mistimes his jump and misses what would have been a big gain.

 

improbable, scary cuz so much coulda gone wrong w the stakes so high, ball looks like it was held too long and it also looks like allen missed the RB open in the flat, and then it almost worked.  to me that's insane and basically what the bills O was all season.

Insane but maybe in a good way?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, colin said:

 

i think he panicked because he held the ball to long and didn't look motor's way.  it's insane because it is insane, dimarco running deep w two defenders around him where the D dropped 9 and the ball was there for him to catch, doesn't that seem insane to you?

 

You can think what you like, obviously, but that's kind of a strange interpretation of Allen's behavior on the play, which is of a QB who knows he has time to let the play develop and is waiting on a route to develop.  You might not like the decision making, but "panic" isn't part of it. (By the way, are you thinking that was a run play?  You write a bit as though you think it was intended to fool the defense with a heavy set, but it was an empty backfield, pass play all the way).

 

I would have liked to see him look Singletary's way, but we don't know what the reads were in the play design and how Allen was coached to execute it.  We DO know that Daboll loves him his gadgets - his "big man" TDs to Lee Smith or Dawkins, his John Brown passing, his squib of a gadget play vs Pittsburgh where Gore was supposed to pass. 

 

Given that, it's entirely plausible to me that DiMarco was the primary read on the 2nd down play and Allen was coached that if you have time and see this shot, take it.  It's quite possible that they gave DiMarco high reps during the week and executed that play 18 of 20 times in practice.  Singletary in that play design (for all my joking about giving him a fiberglass pole and and orange flag) was probably the checkdown or hot read, and typically you don't want a QB to take the checkdown  if he has a shot downfield - that is a complaint made about many a young QB.

 

As play design, I personally hate it.  I don't think having DiMarco and Smith in on that package fooled Houston at all - I think they were 100% coached to prevent a deep pass completion in that situation, and that putting a better receiver downfield would have given the play a better chance to succeed.  What would be wrong with having Knox and Williams in there instead of DiMarco and Smith?

I think if a team is that predictable about NOT taking the checkdown to a talented player like Singletary that you give him that much cushion, why not take it, give him a chance to burn the other team and keep taking it until the other team proves they can stop it (at the cost of leaving something else more open).

[Billl]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

It’s not insane.  Why is it insane?  Throws it on the money to a guy that should have caught the ball.  He panicked?  Bull.

 

You can take any incompletion in any game and pick it to death about who a QB should or should not have thrown to.

How is a jump ball “on the money”?  By your definition, every Hail Mary is on the money.  Just because someone is capable of throwing a flutterball high enough in the air that a receiver (and multiple defenders) can camp out under it doesn’t mean the pass was good.  It was a bad throw and a worse decision.  DiMarco didn’t catch a single pass beyond the LOS all season.  He’s not Randy Moss.  He’s a blocking fullback.  That play was 100% on Josh.

 

It boggles the mind that people can watch Tom Brady win 75 straight games against the Bills precisely because he doesn’t make stupid decisions and still think that JA was playing winning football.  The Texans defense is garbage.  The Chiefs scored 51 points in a 36 minute stretch the following week.  There is absolutely no way the Texans should have won that game.  It was like both teams were trying to give the game away, and Buffalo found a way to get it done.  If New England runs that play 100 times, Brady makes the jump ball throw to the fullback exactly 0 times.  He either hits Brown as he comes out of his break (the correct read) or he checks it down to Singletary (who is one missed open field tackle away from a huge gain).  That was a well designed play that turned into a clown show.

 

There is no doubt that JA has all the physical tools to be great, but he doesn’t have the mental part figured out yet.  He may get there, and if he does, people will look back at games like this and be embarrassed by the fact that they blamed the loss on things like fullbacks not catching jump balls 40 yards downfield while sandwiched between two defensive backs.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, colin said:

i think you are completely missing the point here.  im not even saying good or bad, i'm saying insane.  maybe you'd be more comfortable with crazy or wacky?  

 

Actually I personally think we should channel Mitch Morse on this one.

 

Mitch Morse on the Bills offensive identity: “I think it says (Daboll's) somewhat of a lunatic, you know what I mean?” Morse said.  Um, not exactly. That requires a little more explanation. “Lunatic in a good way,” Morse said.

 

Apparently even our highly-compensated center would agree with the insane/crazy/wacky characterization ?

[PromoTheRobot]

On 1/4/2020 at 10:13 PM, Bakin said:

I don’t mind the shot downfield. 
double coverage, yes...

but Allen gave his WR a chance to get the ball. 
 

Problem is ... why in the ever loving piss would it be DiMarco down there?  

I’m not a Daboll hater - I believe this team needs to continue to add by adding...not subtracting...and I give Daboll another year for sure. He has to do a better job. 
 

And putting DiMarco downfield when you had the smarts to activate Duke....????

 

I just don’t get it. 

 

I'd be willing to bet the play wasn't designed to go to DiMarco.

 

Instead of fretting over that play, how about fretting about the O-line's inability to maintain a pocket for half a second?

Edited January 29, 2020 by PromoTheRobot

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/5/2020 at 3:13 AM, Bakin said:

I don’t mind the shot downfield. 
double coverage, yes...

but Allen gave his WR a chance to get the ball. 
 

Problem is ... why in the ever loving piss would it be DiMarco down there?  

I’m not a Daboll hater - I believe this team needs to continue to add by adding...not subtracting...and I give Daboll another year for sure. He has to do a better job. 
 

And putting DiMarco downfield when you had the smarts to activate Duke....????

 

I just don’t get it. 

 

You do realize that's 100% on Josh right? DiMarco was not his only target, it's the target the QB chose.

 

Daboll never said... "Ok on this play Josh wait for the fullback to run down field and when he's double covered throw a jump ball."

[colin]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can think what you like, obviously, but that's kind of a strange interpretation of Allen's behavior on the play, which is of a QB who knows he has time to let the play develop and is waiting on a route to develop.  You might not like the decision making, but "panic" isn't part of it. (By the way, are you thinking that was a run play?  You write a bit as though you think it was intended to fool the defense with a heavy set, but it was an empty backfield, pass play all the way).

 

I would have liked to see him look Singletary's way, but we don't know what the reads were in the play design and how Allen was coached to execute it.  We DO know that Daboll loves him his gadgets - his "big man" TDs to Lee Smith or Dawkins, his John Brown passing, his squib of a gadget play vs Pittsburgh where Gore was supposed to pass. 

 

Given that, it's entirely plausible to me that DiMarco was the primary read on the 2nd down play and Allen was coached that if you have time and see this shot, take it.  It's quite possible that they gave DiMarco high reps during the week and executed that play 18 of 20 times in practice.  Singletary in that play design (for all my joking about giving him a fiberglass pole and and orange flag) was probably the checkdown or hot read, and typically you don't want a QB to take the checkdown  if he has a shot downfield - that is a complaint made about many a young QB.

 

As play design, I personally hate it.  I don't think having DiMarco and Smith in on that package fooled Houston at all - I think they were 100% coached to prevent a deep pass completion in that situation, and that putting a better receiver downfield would have given the play a better chance to succeed.  What would be wrong with having Knox and Williams in there instead of DiMarco and Smith?

I think if a team is that predictable about NOT taking the checkdown to a talented player like Singletary that you give him that much cushion, why not take it, give him a chance to burn the other team and keep taking it until the other team proves they can stop it (at the cost of leaving something else more open).

 

 

i was implying that formation/personal group might be a good thing to pass into if the d is fooled that you are going to run.  i was kinda going for a "for some reason, they knew we weren't going to run it!!" but frankly got mad remember how much i dislike dabol.

 

i also kinda assume josh panicked because he lost the plot in the game for a lil while and had a crazed look in his eyes (and i say that as a huge JA17 homer).

 

i don't get where so many people just like hand wave that dabol is good or does good things when he's never had any good results.  He's just been around good teams in a lesser role, but when he's been OC in the NFL he's sucked.  Good CV with bad results, he's the Pete Buttigeg of offensive football

31 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Actually I personally think we should channel Mitch Morse on this one.

 

Mitch Morse on the Bills offensive identity: “I think it says (Daboll's) somewhat of a lunatic, you know what I mean?” Morse said.  Um, not exactly. That requires a little more explanation. “Lunatic in a good way,” Morse said.

 

Apparently even our highly-compensated center would agree with the insane/crazy/wacky characterization ?

 

 

ya, i think some of our team has that in a good way, but dabol just isn't good.  IM CRUSADING I CAN'T HELP IT 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, colin said:

 

ya, i think some of our team has that in a good way, but dabol just isn't good.  IM CRUSADING I CAN'T HELP IT 

 

You are not the only anti-Daboll crusader. There are loads of them.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

No I get where you’re going.  No I don’t think it was insane or whacky.  He saw DiMarco out there, thought he could make a play.  And he should have. Why is it whacky?

Because dimarco is terrible and he proved that comment correct.  He needs to go

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I'd be willing to bet the play wasn't designed to go to DiMarco.

 

It shouldn't have been, but also if he (or Lee) weren't realistic choices on the play and the Bills hadn't practiced it enough that he was a realistic choice....he should not have been out there.

 

Given Daboll's demonstrated love of the gadget, I would not bet.

 

[colin]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are not the only anti-Daboll crusader. There are loads of them.

 

and we shall rescue Billsstantinople from the Caliph of no identity or consistency!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, colin said:

i was implying that formation/personal group might be a good thing to pass into if the d is fooled that you are going to run. i was kinda going for a "for some reason, they knew we weren't going to run it!!" but frankly got mad remember how much i dislike dabol.

 

The point is that formation isn't going to fool anyone that you are going to run because it was an empty backfield.  I could be wrong, but I don't believe we have ever run out of an empty backfield, with or without DiMarco and Smith on the field.  OTOH, we have passed out of that kind of formation, and sometimes even to DiMarco and to Smith.

 

 

 

[colin]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The point is that formation isn't going to fool anyone that you are going to run because it was an empty backfield.  I could be wrong, but I don't believe we have ever run out of an empty backfield, with or without DiMarco and Smith on the field.  OTOH, we have passed out of that kind of formation, and sometimes even to DiMarco and to Smith.

 

 

ya, that's the rub/joke.  going empty back field gives you zero advantage pre snap, can't fool anyone.  it's just going all in on your pass scheme, which maybe works when they can't sub or you have very little clock, but with unlimited time in OT, and with your RB lighting it up and your WRs dropping balls, it just makes me crazy.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

How is a jump ball “on the money”?  By your definition, every Hail Mary is on the money.  Just because someone is capable of throwing a flutterball high enough in the air that a receiver (and multiple defenders) can camp out under it doesn’t mean the pass was good.  It was a bad throw and a worse decision.  DiMarco didn’t catch a single pass beyond the LOS all season.  He’s not Randy Moss.  He’s a blocking fullback.  That play was 100% on Josh.

 

It boggles the mind that people can watch Tom Brady win 75 straight games against the Bills precisely because he doesn’t make stupid decisions and still think that JA was playing winning football.  The Texans defense is garbage.  The Chiefs scored 51 points in a 36 minute stretch the following week.  There is absolutely no way the Texans should have won that game.  It was like both teams were trying to give the game away, and Buffalo found a way to get it done.  If New England runs that play 100 times, Brady makes the jump ball throw to the fullback exactly 0 times.  He either hits Brown as he comes out of his break (the correct read) or he checks it down to Singletary (who is one missed open field tackle away from a huge gain).  That was a well designed play that turned into a clown show.

 

There is no doubt that JA has all the physical tools to be great, but he doesn’t have the mental part figured out yet.  He may get there, and if he does, people will look back at games like this and be embarrassed by the fact that they blamed the loss on things like fullbacks not catching jump balls 40 yards downfield while sandwiched between two defensive backs.

 

 

 

 

It hit DiMarco in the hands and if he jumps a split second later it’s complete.  Denying that Allen threw it to where he could catch it is asinine. Saying it was a bad throw is equally asinine.  You can argue the choice but he put it where the receiver should have caught it.

 

Could he have checked it down?  Yes.  Does he need to continue developing his ability to read defenses.  Yes.  I’ve said that repeatedly so try reading what people actually write.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, colin said:

ya, that's the rub/joke.  going empty back field gives you zero advantage pre snap, can't fool anyone.  it's just going all in on your pass scheme, which maybe works when they can't sub or you have very little clock, but with unlimited time in OT, and with your RB lighting it up and your WRs dropping balls, it just makes me crazy.

 

The Bills do it because it helps them decode the coverage.  I understand that's why they do it (although I don't like it).

 

I just feel that the best players for a situation should be on the field, and when it's a pass play, those players are NOT named Smith and DiMarco.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can think what you like, obviously, but that's kind of a strange interpretation of Allen's behavior on the play, which is of a QB who knows he has time to let the play develop and is waiting on a route to develop.  You might not like the decision making, but "panic" isn't part of it. (By the way, are you thinking that was a run play?  You write a bit as though you think it was intended to fool the defense with a heavy set, but it was an empty backfield, pass play all the way).

 

I would have liked to see him look Singletary's way, but we don't know what the reads were in the play design and how Allen was coached to execute it.  We DO know that Daboll loves him his gadgets - his "big man" TDs to Lee Smith or Dawkins, his John Brown passing, his squib of a gadget play vs Pittsburgh where Gore was supposed to pass. 

 

Given that, it's entirely plausible to me that DiMarco was the primary read on the 2nd down play and Allen was coached that if you have time and see this shot, take it.  It's quite possible that they gave DiMarco high reps during the week and executed that play 18 of 20 times in practice.  Singletary in that play design (for all my joking about giving him a fiberglass pole and and orange flag) was probably the checkdown or hot read, and typically you don't want a QB to take the checkdown  if he has a shot downfield - that is a complaint made about many a young QB.

 

As play design, I personally hate it.  I don't think having DiMarco and Smith in on that package fooled Houston at all - I think they were 100% coached to prevent a deep pass completion in that situation, and that putting a better receiver downfield would have given the play a better chance to succeed.  What would be wrong with having Knox and Williams in there instead of DiMarco and Smith?

I think if a team is that predictable about NOT taking the checkdown to a talented player like Singletary that you give him that much cushion, why not take it, give him a chance to burn the other team and keep taking it until the other team proves they can stop it (at the cost of leaving something else more open).

 

I understand this, but I believe Cover 1 has talked about this multiple times during the season.  Bringing in DiMarco and Smith - should make the defense move to a base package.  This should be a running package as you have a blocking TE and a FB.  The idea is to force them into a base package by personnel and then by spreading that out - by who covers DiMarco- the QB should immediately know the coverage.  
 

Using Knox rather than DiMarco you put more of a receiving threat, but it also does not necessarily force the team to show coverage.  They can play man with a safety on Knox or rotate and play zone.  They are not covering Knox with a LB and that is a dead clue for coverage with DiMarco in the game.

 

I totally agree Houston was not fooled and I do not think Dabol got the defense he wanted.  It looks like Houston dropped 9 with man/zone concepts which I think is what confused Josh.  Even with all of that - If Josh stays with the read - he has Brown open - which appears to be the design.  If Josh was uncomfortable with Brown - there was the backside read of Singletary, but I think with the pre-snap read that play was supposed to go right and to Brown.  If he felt it was not there - I wish he had pulled it down and run it with the 9 guys dropping he had some lanes.  At no time do I believe the throw to DiMarco was planned - I feel that was Josh not feeling the throw to Brown and seeing an open lane to DiMarco.  
 

I believe next year the Bills have more plays off this - most importantly if they do not get the base coverage they want - pull DiMarco and Smith into a conventional formation and smash the ball at them.  I think in the chess match of the game - Buffalo on that play did not get what they expected and did not have the ability for Josh to get them out of the bad play and into a good play against the defense.  
 

I also think it is a sign of the play design that even not getting the right defense for the play - the design still had 2 guys get open and if executed by the QB better - the play should have been successful.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

I understand this, but I believe Cover 1 has talked about this multiple times during the season.  Bringing in DiMarco and Smith - should make the defense move to a base package.  This should be a running package as you have a blocking TE and a FB.  The idea is to force them into a base package by personnel and then by spreading that out - by who covers DiMarco- the QB should immediately know the coverage.  
 

Using Knox rather than DiMarco you put more of a receiving threat, but it also does not necessarily force the team to show coverage.  They can play man with a safety on Knox or rotate and play zone.  They are not covering Knox with a LB and that is a dead clue for coverage with DiMarco in the game.

 

I totally agree Houston was not fooled and I do not think Dabol got the defense he wanted.  It looks like Houston dropped 9 with man/zone concepts which I think is what confused Josh.  Even with all of that - If Josh stays with the read - he has Brown open - which appears to be the design.  If Josh was uncomfortable with Brown - there was the backside read of Singletary, but I think with the pre-snap read that play was supposed to go right and to Brown.  If he felt it was not there - I wish he had pulled it down and run it with the 9 guys dropping he had some lanes.  At no time do I believe the throw to DiMarco was planned - I feel that was Josh not feeling the throw to Brown and seeing an open lane to DiMarco.  
 

I believe next year the Bills have more plays off this - most importantly if they do not get the base coverage they want - pull DiMarco and Smith into a conventional formation and smash the ball at them.  I think in the chess match of the game - Buffalo on that play did not get what they expected and did not have the ability for Josh to get them out of the bad play and into a good play against the defense.  
 

I also think it is a sign of the play design that even not getting the right defense for the play - the design still had 2 guys get open and if executed by the QB better - the play should have been successful.

 

Really good post, Thank you. 

 

I don't know why Josh didn't throw to Brown.  Maybe someone who is better than I am at diagnosing plays can take a look and tell us if there's some reason he isn't as open as he appears.  Is Josh concerned someone can jump the throw to Brown? 

 

Or is it a hero ball moment?

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Really good post, Thank you. 

 

I don't know why Josh didn't throw to Brown.  Maybe someone who is better than I am at diagnosing plays can take a look and tell us if there's some reason he isn't as open as he appears.  Is Josh concerned someone can jump the throw to Brown? 

 

Or is it a hero ball moment?

 

 

 

I am sure someone with more knowledge can give a better assessment, but to me - I think they did not get the defense they expected at all.  Probably because of the time of the game and the situation, but I think that confused Josh from before the snap.

 

Typically you would expect either a man defense or a Zone defense and you make your read.  It looks to me like Houston dropped 9 into coverage with a man/zone combo.  Therefore I think Josh did not trust his read and fell back into college ball.  I don’t know if it is “hero ball”, but it was see a guy and throw it.  He did not look to me like he was “reading” the defense - I think he was confused and it was not the way they practiced it and you then revert to what you have done.

 

As an aside - I was watching a Peyton’s Place on ESPN + and there was a great discussion with Steve Young about his development and how it took him forever to “trust” what he read and trust his throws and it really happened when his coach - I think it was McCarthy - told him he did not need to see to throw.  They asked him to start making some blind passes in practice and trust his guys would be there.  That propelled him to trust throws that early in his career he would never have attempted.  I think this is what you see with many young QBs - they do not trust yet.  I also think it is why Mahomes has had the success he has had.  He trust his throws and it allows his guys to make plays.  It is also why Brady struggled this year - after years of being able to trust and know where WRs and TEs are going - suddenly he lacked that and he ended up spiking the ball so much.
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

I am sure someone with more knowledge can give a better assessment, but to me - I think they did not get the defense they expected at all.  Probably because of the time of the game and the situation, but I think that confused Josh from before the snap.

 

Typically you would expect either a man defense or a Zone defense and you make your read.  It looks to me like Houston dropped 9 into coverage with a man/zone combo.  Therefore I think Josh did not trust his read and fell back into college ball.  I don’t know if it is “hero ball”, but it was see a guy and throw it.  He did not look to me like he was “reading” the defense - I think he was confused and it was not the way they practiced it and you then revert to what you have done.

 

As an aside - I was watching a Peyton’s Place on ESPN + and there was a great discussion with Steve Young about his development and how it took him forever to “trust” what he read and trust his throws and it really happened when his coach - I think it was McCarthy - told him he did not need to see to throw.  They asked him to start making some blind passes in practice and trust his guys would be there.  That propelled him to trust throws that early in his career he would never have attempted.  I think this is what you see with many young QBs - they do not trust yet.  I also think it is why Mahomes has had the success he has had.  He trust his throws and it allows his guys to make plays.  It is also why Brady struggled this year - after years of being able to trust and know where WRs and TEs are going - suddenly he lacked that and he ended up spiking the ball so much.

 

I thought he seemed to be looking at McKenzie and at Brown.

 

The puzzling thing to me is that when the QB is confused or doesn't get the look he wants....isn't that when the checkdown is supposed to be the option? 

 

And there is Singletary, all alone over there, saying "show me some loooooove...."

 

Josh's rookie season, there was a game Romo did....might have been the Chargers...Josh threw a pick and Romo told an anecdote about one of his coaches telling him "I want you to throw two picks today".  His point wasn't that his coach really wanted him to throw two picks, his point was that his coach didn't want him to be paralyzed by the fear of throwing a pick, he wanted him to make his read, trust what he saw,  and take his shot.

 

I think Daboll is taking a different development direction with Josh....I think he is demanding that he NOT throw unless he's sure what he sees and that he NOT throw picks.  The hope is that as Josh develops, he will become more confident and that this is a better development path to enforce than the Jameis Winston pathway of having a guy who reads and reacts and throws 30 picks and 33 TDs.

 

I also believe that at this point, Josh in fact doesn't always trust and know where his WR and TE are going.  The whole principle of the offense Daboll runs, as I understand it, is that the WR "read" the defense and choose a route variation, and Josh reads both the defense and the WR's body language to determine what route he will run.  I think some of the things we look at that appear to be inaccurate throws, are actually miscues between Josh and the TE or WR (others are simply inaccurate of course).  Knox and Singletary are rookies; the offense is new to Brown; Beasley has done this before but not in this offense.

 

Anyway, if Josh is confused about the coverage and he can't definitively read his WR's body language, it would follow he might not pull the trigger because he in fact, does NOT know where his WR is going to be. 

 

But damn, Singletary

 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/28/2020 at 8:10 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm more disappointed Dimarco is still on this team than some stupid hail mary thrown to him. He's the Chris Kelsay of this Bills era.

 

I'm a bit disappointed in that comment, almost sad. Ryan Denney made Chris Kelsay All-Pro in case you forgot. It was the Bills love of DEs in the 2nd round. How romantic.