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Hapless Bills Fan

Top 4 passing QB - No winning records

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2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the point is the Bills have gone 45 games without one that to mean seems almost impossible to do, unless your coaching philosophy is so out of date......

 

BTW for those who haven't looked, the Bills are not 45-0 over those 45 games, which seems to be the argument that you don't need to throw for 300 by some posters here..... 

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

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4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

A totally irrelevant stat that is shown on almost all sources.  Tell you what if I agree with you, however tell you I want to see it (along with 3+TD passes) would that make you feel better?????😉 

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5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning.
 

Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do. 

300 yard games are correlated with good QB’s.

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8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

A totally irrelevant stat that is shown on almost all sources.  Tell you what if I agree with you, however tell you I want to see it (along with 3+TD passes) would that make you feel better?????😉 

It’s on here. I’m not good at searching but if someone else is it’s there. It was like a game or 2 under .500. Basically, you could win or you could lose with 300 yards. It’s shown on all sources because people are lazy and it’s easy to find. Old people (ie network people) use gross stats because they can quickly get them. They don’t want to have to work. 
 

Teams don’t care about that. It has no impact on winning and losing. That’s why teams employ robust analytics departments. They are looking for things that correlate with wins and losses. If they see something like “teams that run for 4.8 yards a carry win 74% of the time” they will be trying to build a roster to accomplish that. 

 

Now passing TDs is different. Any TD is different because it’s actual points. I should have clarified; yardage stats are irrelevant. Obviously if a team throws 3 TDs, runs for 3 TDs, has 3 Td returns or whatever, they are more likely to win. The average NFL team scores 22.4 points per game in 2019. If you are going to throw for 3 TDs you’re more likely than not to have more than 22.4 points.

8 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

300 yard games are correlated with good QB’s.

I guess, but have nothing to do with winning. Lamar Jackson may be the league MVP. He leads the league in TDs. He has 1 300 yard game and it was the 1st game of the season against a Miami team that was in disarray. 

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s on here. I’m not good at searching but if someone else is it’s there. It was like a game or 2 under .500. Basically, you could win or you could lose with 300 yards.

 

Now passing TDs is different. Any TD is different because it’s actual points. I should have clarified; yardage stats are irrelevant. Obviously if a team throws 3 TDs, runs for 3 TDs, has 3 Td returns or whatever, they are more likely to win. The average NFL team scores 22.4 points per game in 2019. If you are going to throw for 3 TDs you’re more likely than not to have more than 22.4 points.

I guess, but have nothing to do with winning. Lamar Jackson May be the league MVP. He leads the league in TDs. He has 1 300 yard game and it was the 1st game of the season against a Miami team that was in disarray. 

Good QB’s “have nothing to do with winning.” 

 

Interesting. Top 5 QBs in NFL history with the most 300 yards games have 10 Super Bowls between them. Extend it out to the top 20 in 300 yard games and you have 21 Super Bowl wins.

 

Is the lesson over?

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It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

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2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

Yep. 3 of those players missed significant games this year as well. The other 2 are old. Guys like Rivers are now old. 

 

Even a cursory analysis could prove this “anomaly” to mean nothing.

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1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

Good QB’s “have nothing to do with winning.” 

 

Interesting. Top 5 QBs in NFL history with the most 300 yards games have 10 Super Bowls between them. Extend it out to the top 20 in 300 yard games and you have 21 Super Bowl wins.

 

Is the lesson over?

I’m arguing it’s not a good indicator of a “good QB.” In terms of Super Bowls that’s as much a sign of longevity as anything. Great QBs win Super Bowls. Great QBs throw a lot. How many passing attempts and starts do those guys have compared to others? I’ll bet you they all rank high in career attempts and games. If you start 100 games you should throw for 300 more than people that start 15. My argument is simple, and factual. In the CURRENT NFL (wide open passing league) there isn’t a correlation between 300 yards and winning. Now maybe if you push the number to 400 yards there will be.  
 

Also, the game is changing!! That’s why I used the Lamar Jackson example. He has 1. He leads the league in TDs!! That’s a stat that matters. There’s no lesson. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

It's an anomaly.

 

Brees, Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben have been in the top 5 passers for years.   Lots of playoff games in that group.

 

This thread is silly in its inference.  

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....😝😉

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Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....😝😉

It’s an anomaly.  But winning football teams do so with balance.  Pass when it’s to your advantage, run when it’s to your advantage, play good defense.  Win the turnover battle.  Dominate up front.  

 

You are more interested in being entertained than in wins.  We all get that.

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m arguing it’s not a good indicator of a “good QB.” In terms of Super Bowls that’s as much a sign of longevity as anything. Great QBs win Super Bowls. Great QBs throw a lot. How many passing attempts and starts do those guys have compared to others? I’ll bet you they all rank high in career attempts and games. If you start 100 games you should throw for 300 more than people that start 15. My argument is simple, and factual. In the CURRENT NFL (wide open passing league) there isn’t a correlation between 300 yards and winning. Now maybe if you push the number to 400 yards there will be.  
 

Also, the game is changing!! That’s why I used the Lamar Jackson example. He has 1. He leads the league in TDs!! That’s a stat that matters. There’s no lesson. 

I mean, you can argue it’s not good, but I provided the cold hard factual truth. You could argue that career passing attempts are associated with good QB’s because of course it is. You could argue career passing TD’s is also associated with good QB’s as well. But you can NOT argue that career 300 yard games IS NOT correlated with good QB’s and that it is NOT correlated with Super Bowl wins, because the numbers are the numbers.

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1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

I mean, you can argue it’s not good, but I provided the cold hard factual truth. You could argue that career passing attempts are associated with good QB’s because of course it is. You could argue career passing TD’s is also associated with good QB’s as well. But you can NOT argue that career 300 yard games IS NOT correlated with good QB’s and that it is NOT correlated with Super Bowl wins, because the numbers are the numbers.

Show me the correlation coefficients.

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14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Of course it is!!!!  

 

It is another stoopid attempt to pretend that throwing for yards (in this case it is 300 yards) means nothing. 

 

These are from people still thinking the Defense is the 2000 Ravens & dreaming of Trent Dilfer as the prototypical QB.....😝😉

I can only speak for myself on this. It has nothing to do with 20 years ago or the old Ravens. There isn’t a correlation.
 

Here ya go, if my math is right, going into today 300 yard passers are 48-48-2 on the year. https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html
 

Last year they were 65-65-2 (again assuming that my math is correct). If you count the playoffs they were 68-67-2. Someone PLEASE show me why I’m wrong!! 300 yard passing games do not correlate to winning!! https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html?yr=2018

Edited by Kirby Jackson

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39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

No the point is the Bills have gone 45 games without one that to mean seems almost impossible to do, unless your coaching philosophy is so out of date......

 

BTW for those who haven't looked, the Bills are not 45-0 over those 45 games, which seems to be the argument that you don't need to throw for 300 by some posters here..... 

It does seem very difficult to go that long without a 300 yard passer. 

But that doesn't mean there is a correlation between 300 yard passing games and win/loss record. You can change the font, the color, and put it in italics all you want, but it won't make it so.

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2 hours ago, aristocrat said:

A balanced offense always is the key. Look at the lions as the example. Also, defense wins titles. 

 

This. You can have a passing attack that eats up clock and just moves the chains. Sprinkle in some designed runs to keep the pass rush honest, QB scrambles to move the chains, and you may not have that air raid attack, but you will keep the other offense off the field. Usually, those are not lop-sided yardage and score games; rather, they are games where a team is in control of field position,TOP, and the score.

 

Throwing for a ton of yards USUALLY means trying to catch up in a game where there has been a defensive melt down. It also usually (not always) means turnovers, sacks, and ints on the side chucking it downfield. It is not a direct correlation to winning football games. That is why the magic 300 yard mark is so meaningless in regards to winning football games.

 

If folks on this board said they would like to know if Josh could throw 300 plus yards and get us back in a game, I think we have seen some 4th qtr comebacks with glimpses of that. That being said, I don't think he is quite there yet to have to pass for 350 or 400 yards to have us climb back into a game. Or at least I would not want to have to ask him to do that yet, but I am confident that level of skill is in there and will gradually emerge.

 

As I have said before, if he keeps working he will keep trending in the right direction.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I mean, you can argue it’s not good, but I provided the cold hard factual truth. You could argue that career passing attempts are associated with good QB’s because of course it is. You could argue career passing TD’s is also associated with good QB’s as well. But you can NOT argue that career 300 yard games IS NOT correlated with good QB’s and that it is NOT correlated with Super Bowl wins, because the numbers are the numbers.

So did I. See above 

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Those advocating for the importance of 300 yard games might want to consider looking at first half stats only, or stats where scores are within X amount between teams.  The biggest potential fly in the 300 yard ointment is the yards teams get in garbage time or when they are forced to only throw when far behind.  Thursday’s game was a good example; Dallas had to throw a lot to try and get back in the game.

Edited by oldmanfan
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Just now, oldmanfan said:

Those advocating for the importance of 300 yard games might want to consider looking at first half stats only, or stats where scores are with X amount between teams.  The biggest potential fly in the 300 yard ointment is the yards teams get in garbage time or when they are forced to only throw when far behind.  Thursday’s game was a good example; Dallas had to throw a lot to try and get back in the game.

This is a good point too. teams trailing are throwing.
 

I also think the bar needs to move from 300 to maybe 350 or 400. 20 years ago, 300 yards might have been the number but now that’s just a number that doesn’t have anything to do with wins and losses. Teams throw the ball more than ever. There are lots and lots of 300 yard games.  

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17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is a good point too. teams trailing are throwing.
 

I also think the bar needs to move from 300 to maybe 350 or 400. 20 years ago, 300 yards might have been the number but now that’s just a number that doesn’t have anything to do with wins and losses. Teams throw the ball more than ever. There are lots and lots of 300 yard games.  

Not by the Bills there are not......

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4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not by the Bills there are not......

...and it doesn’t matter. See above, you win 1/2 the games that you pass for 300 and lose the other half. Welcome to 2019 (or 2018) in the NFL. 
 

If you want something to look for with the Bills they are 11-0 or 11-1 (something like that) when Josh completes 60% of his passes. 

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5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not by the Bills there are not......

And the only reason you care is because you find it more entertaining, correct?

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I think the shift has more to do with the majority of the top young QB's being dual threats than it does anything else.

 

Not sure how long it'll last, but that's the way this season is playing out at the position.

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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think the shift has more to do with the majority of the top young QB's being dual threats than it does anything else.

 

Not sure how long it'll last, but that's the way this season is playing out at the position.

Good point

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4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

...and it doesn’t matter. See above, you win 1/2 the games that you pass for 300 and lose the other half. Welcome to 2019 (or 2018) in the NFL. 
 

If you want something to look for with the Bills they are 11-0 or 11-1 (something like that) when Josh completes 60% of his passes. 

That’s because some 300 yard passers are bums. 

 

We we can all agree a Brian Hoyer blowout loss 300 yard game is not the same as a Patrick Mahomes 300 yard double digit victory.

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4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And the only reason you care is because you find it more entertaining, correct?

And if Allen threw for 300 yards vs. NE, Philly & Cleveland.....  They are probably 13-0.......😉

 

Someone pointed out vs, Cleveland with they scored a TD that last drive & the last 35 yards in the air he would have thrown for 301 yards.....

 

Trubisky won a close game Thursday and it was due to him passing for 300 (and the last td drive and his passing accounting for it).

 

This is a  stupid argument as any one withany brains knows that the best QB's in the NFL all throw for 300 yards + consistently.....

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