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Hapless Bills Fan

Week 11 Point Differential Thing

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Edit: earlier I posted the wrong table/graph with just net points instead of PPG.  Me bad.  Fixed now.

 

At someone's suggestion, used win % instead of wins to correct for bye weeks.  Moves things around a little bit, and makes it harder to ID teams so I labeled em.  Bills looking better with a solid win over the Dolphins.  Things starting to tighten up, and some teams starting to pull away on the rest.

 

Sorted by net points, can clearly be seen that Dallas is out-performing their W/L record. 

Either an easy schedule or they are a team to watch.

NE, for all Brady***'s whinging, is still at the top of the pack with the Ravens+ and SF right behind them.

 

image.thumb.png.76845ae69b9d456995b2e989f3a19046.pngimage.thumb.png.46614f30b6fdb9449e464507c40af07a.png

 

+Do you guys know the difference between a Raven and a Crow?  One has 8 pinion feathers while the other has 7.  So you see, the difference between a Raven and a Crow is just a matter of a pinion.

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12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

At someone's suggestion, used win % instead of wins to correct for bye weeks.  Moves things around a little bit, and makes it harder to ID teams so I labeled em.  Bills looking better with a solid win over the Dolphins.  Things starting to tighten up, and some teams starting to pull away on the rest.

 

Sorted by net points, can clearly be seen that Dallas is out-performing their W/L record. 

Either an easy schedule or they are a team to watch.

NE, for all Brady***'s whinging, is still at the top of the pack with the Ravens+ and SF right behind them.

 

image.thumb.png.8d6d4a5a93e56e77936d3771237ce571.pngimage.thumb.png.11db49039c1ac1fddb1f2f1e3cfe777d.png

 

+Do you guys know the difference between a Raven and a Crow?  One has 8 pinion feathers while the other has 7.  So you see, the difference between a Raven and a Crow is just a matter of a pinion.

A group of Crows is called a murder.  A group of Ravens is called unkindness or conspiracy. That’s gangster. 

Edited by C.Biscuit97

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41 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

A group of Crows is called a murder.  A group of Ravens is called unkindness or conspiracy. That’s gangster. 

782a39098bc6501556a37be9ca9684fc7df9b26f

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Brady is just getting more annoying. Not just for winning, but his constant complaining. "My offense sucks", or "i didnt win super bowl 52". Like, you ungrateful bastard. Some people would love to say they made the super bowl even once, win or lose. And he's upset he only has 6 wins. Get over yourself.

Edited by wagon127

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

At someone's suggestion, used win % instead of wins to correct for bye weeks.  Moves things around a little bit, and makes it harder to ID teams so I labeled em.  Bills looking better with a solid win over the Dolphins.  Things starting to tighten up, and some teams starting to pull away on the rest.

 

Sorted by net points, can clearly be seen that Dallas is out-performing their W/L record. 

Either an easy schedule or they are a team to watch.

NE, for all Brady***'s whinging, is still at the top of the pack with the Ravens+ and SF right behind them.

 

image.thumb.png.8d6d4a5a93e56e77936d3771237ce571.pngimage.thumb.png.11db49039c1ac1fddb1f2f1e3cfe777d.png

 

+Do you guys know the difference between a Raven and a Crow?  One has 8 pinion feathers while the other has 7.  So you see, the difference between a Raven and a Crow is just a matter of a pinion.

 

Dallas has had some of the same weak teams we have had.  They have also had NO, MIN, and DET though.  Giants x 2, Wash, Miami, Jets(lost to), they also had Philly.  Hard to classify that team.  I feel like Philly is about the same as us but they had a better day then we did when we played each other.

 

Dallas is also an up and down team IMO.  They certainly have a good team they just don't always play good.  Brady is whining because he is correct.  Their offense sucks. They have scored only 18.7 ppg over the last 3. Their rank 9 in points is skewed from earlier season against weaker opponents.  Over the last 3 the Bills have scored 25 ppg btw.  Talking strictly offensive scores of course.  Over last 3 offensive TD per game NE: 1.7  Buffalo: 3.  Season total NE: 2.8  Buffalo: 2.4

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-touchdowns-per-game

 

 

 

 

Edited by Scott7975

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3 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

Brady is just getting more annoying. Not just for winning, but his constant complaining. "My offense sucks", or "i didnt win super bowl 52". Like, you ungrateful bastard. Some people would love to say they made the super bowl even once, win or lose. And he's upset he only has 6 wins. Get over yourself.

I really can’t stand that dill -hole...

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

At someone's suggestion, used win % instead of wins to correct for bye weeks.  Moves things around a little bit, and makes it harder to ID teams so I labeled em.  Bills looking better with a solid win over the Dolphins.  Things starting to tighten up, and some teams starting to pull away on the rest.

 

Sorted by net points, can clearly be seen that Dallas is out-performing their W/L record. 

Either an easy schedule or they are a team to watch.

NE, for all Brady***'s whinging, is still at the top of the pack with the Ravens+ and SF right behind them.

 

image.thumb.png.8d6d4a5a93e56e77936d3771237ce571.pngimage.thumb.png.11db49039c1ac1fddb1f2f1e3cfe777d.png

 

+Do you guys know the difference between a Raven and a Crow?  One has 8 pinion feathers while the other has 7.  So you see, the difference between a Raven and a Crow is just a matter of a pinion.

If you're going to average out the win %, you should also average out the net points per game rather than total.

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1 hour ago, 1ManRaid said:

If you're going to average out the win %, you should also average out the net points per game rather than total.

 

You're correct and that's what I do.  I realized actually before I read this that I'd put up the wrong graph and table and went back and edited.

 

Fixed now!  Thanks for noticing.

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Denver should be around .500 at only -2.5 ppg.  They're 0-3 in three point games and nearly pulled off the upset at Minnesota next week.  This will not be easy.

Edited by Doc Brown

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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Denver should be around .500 at only -2.5 ppg.  They're 0-3 in three point games and nearly pulled off the upset at Minnesota next week.  This will not be easy.

 

Unsure?  There's a pretty wide range of wins at that diff.  From Oakland at 6 and Carolina at 5, to Denver and Detroit at 3.  I think it's a fair point that they've lost some close games that they could have won, but they've also won some close games they could have lost - could have lost to the Brownies instead of winning by 5, could have lost to the Chargers......well, OK, Chargers doing Charger things this year.

 

Like Cleveland, they've got a better team than their record suggests and especially a stout defense.  #7 in the league.  Agreed, not easy.

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7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Dallas has had some of the same weak teams we have had.  They have also had NO, MIN, and DET though.  Giants x 2, Wash, Miami, Jets(lost to), they also had Philly.  Hard to classify that team.  I feel like Philly is about the same as us but they had a better day then we did when we played each other.

 

Dallas is also an up and down team IMO.  They certainly have a good team they just don't always play good.  Brady is whining because he is correct.  Their offense sucks. They have scored only 18.7 ppg over the last 3. Their rank 9 in points is skewed from earlier season against weaker opponents.  Over the last 3 the Bills have scored 25 ppg btw.  Talking strictly offensive scores of course.  Over last 3 offensive TD per game NE: 1.7  Buffalo: 3.  Season total NE: 2.8  Buffalo: 2.4

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-touchdowns-per-game

 

I predict Dallas misses the playoffs. They could very well get 10 wins, but I think there will be a 10 win team or two in the NFC that misses the playoffs this year, and Dallas might be one of them.

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10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Dallas has had some of the same weak teams we have had.  They have also had NO, MIN, and DET though.  Giants x 2, Wash, Miami, Jets(lost to), they also had Philly.  Hard to classify that team.  I feel like Philly is about the same as us but they had a better day then we did when we played each other.

 

Dallas is also an up and down team IMO.  They certainly have a good team they just don't always play good.  Brady is whining because he is correct.  Their offense sucks. They have scored only 18.7 ppg over the last 3. Their rank 9 in points is skewed from earlier season against weaker opponents.  Over the last 3 the Bills have scored 25 ppg btw.  Talking strictly offensive scores of course.  Over last 3 offensive TD per game NE: 1.7  Buffalo: 3.  Season total NE: 2.8  Buffalo: 2.4

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-touchdowns-per-game

 

 

 

 

 

Dallas can blow a team out but then they can also lose to the Jets

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2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Dallas can blow a team out but then they can also lose to the Jets

Right. They are so up and down. Hard to really tell who they are. They have a really good D and a really good O. It just seems they don’t always play like it. 

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I think thanks to this I will arbitrarily now use average point differential (APD) as my qualifier for what determines contender/good, mediocre, and bad teams.  Basically by if they are winning or losing by more than a field goal.

 

Contender = 3.1 or higher APD

Mediocre = 3.0 to -3.0

Bad = -3.1 or lower

 

We have had the good fortune of facing the bottom five teams, but still face three of the top four.  Good times.

 

Somewhat related, I was into hockey pools when I was younger and made a hobby of tracking trends in how certain betting lines correlated with things like home/away upsets.  The guy running the pool I was in saw my success in picking games and arbitrarily kicked me from the league for rejecting his random demand one week to submit my picks before the weekend betting lines he knew I used came out.  The league died off almost immediately because everyone knew he started the league to try to win the season end bonus the season long points leader got for himself (he admitted to this much) and he had just suspiciously booted his sole real competitor from the league.  Everyone was on my side and agreed they didn't want to pay into his potential scam any longer.  The guy would b**** when I did well and try to refuse payment if I won a week's pool on the grounds of it not being fair I used research to make my picks despite said research being expressly permitted by him (because he used similar methods) at the beginning.

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15 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I really can’t stand that dill -hole...

 

it gets tiresome after 20 years of this....

 

 

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