Cuboirs Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagoon Blues Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) Can you please post the chart with all? Wonder how close all are and how many haven't had the bye yet. Quite a few teams haven't had bye yet...or does that go against your narrative... If i am not mistaken 18 teams or so haven't had the bye yet...An extra game does tend to help... Edited October 31, 2019 by Lagoon Blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Cuboirs said: Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already I take it you are not much into the finer points of analyzing football? However, they did score more points than 5 of their 7 opponents. That's good, right? Edited October 31, 2019 by billsfan1959 5 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 There was a post a bit ago about POINT DIFFERENTIAL and how the Bills rank relative to other teams. Given that the goal of a game is to have more points than the other team when the clock winds down, this is the stat that ultimately matters. You can have a high scoring team and suck, if your D is porous. There's a reason Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are both giddy about their team's defenses this year. It's reasonable to compare points per game to look at how effective an offense is, but one does have to look at PPG to normalize for the bye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 24th in points per game. Half a point behind the chargers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 13 minutes ago, Cruiserplayer said: 24th in points per game. Half a point behind the chargers. Now we have a legit metric to talk about. How are they in point differential per game? I'll help by getting you close:https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2019/REG?sortField=netPts&sortIsAscending=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 We have one of the worst passing games in the league. Points will remain at a premium until Josh Allen's cumulative QB Rating surpasses 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, jrober38 said: We have one of the worst passing games in the league. Points will remain at a premium until Josh Allen's cumulative QB Rating surpasses 90. Maybe. But say more about why you pick that particular number, and what is the justification for your choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: Maybe. But say more about why you pick that particular number, and what is the justification for your choice? Honestly it should be higher. I'm just trying to give Josh a target that might actually be attainable. Reality is that we should be aiming for a QB who can consistently post a rating of close to 100. High 90s is where the QBs on the top offenses seem to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Yea, yea, yea.....and if you look at the teams we face down the stretch they’re virtually all of the worst offenses in the league. So there’s that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Here, I'll give you the actual data on point differential per game. If anyone knows a site that actually calculates this, LMK Bills are currently 12th. I'll give y'all a little tip from years and years of watching football. Everyone focuses on the offense and especially the passing game, because that's the flashy stuff. But the truth is, to get to the off season and succeed there, a team needs both offense and defense to play at a certain level. The Bills defense is ahead of the offense right now, Iggles game notwithstanding. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Here, I'll give you the actual data on point differential per game. If anyone knows a site that actually calculates this, LMK Bills are currently 12th. I'll give y'all a little tip from years and years of watching football. Everyone focuses on the offense and especially the passing game, because that's the flashy stuff. But the truth is, to get to the off season and succeed there, a team needs both offense and defense to play at a certain level. The Bills defense is ahead of the offense right now, Iggles game notwithstanding. The Bills have faced the 1st, 14th, 22nd, 26th, 29th, 31st and 32nd ranked offenses. In other words, our defense has faced mostly garbage opposition. Point differential looks great, because we've mostly played horrible teams this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, jrober38 said: Honestly it should be higher. I'm just trying to give Josh a target that might actually be attainable. Reality is that we should be aiming for a QB who can consistently post a rating of close to 100. High 90s is where the QBs on the top offenses seem to start. In other words, no real evidence, just "looks that way to me"? We also had a bit of a goal post shift here - you started out "points will be at a premium until...." and now it's "we should be aiming for a QB who..." Let's stick with the "points will be at a premium until" premise, you good with that? Let's try a quick exercise. Here's a list of the current top 10 NFL teams on points scored, and a list of the current top 10 teams by passer rating (which happens to be all the teams with passer ratings over 100). What do you notice? Maybe, just maybe, factors other than whether the QB has a passer rating >100 (or some other arbitrary number) impact the quality of an offense. 9 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The Bills have faced the 1st, 14th, 22nd, 26th, 29th, 31st and 32nd ranked offenses. In other words, our defense has faced mostly garbage opposition. Point differential looks great, because we've mostly played horrible teams this year. We've played who we've played. This is like a few years back where people wanted to dismiss our running game and say it wasn't that good, because of how many rush yards Tyrod Taylor gained, and subtract those from the total. It turned out that when one took out the yards gained by all the QBs, we still had a very good running game. Not quite as good, but still very very good. Point being, if you want to play the "diss us off because we've played bad offenses" game, you need to apply the same metric to all the other teams on that list somehow (also show your work- offenses ranked by what metric?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Cuboirs said: Only 7 teams have scored less points than Buffalos 134...and that includes teams that are clearly tanking.....Great job Beane thinking we have the right peices already Who, exactly, would you have liked Beane to trade for. And at what price? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 How many of these teams have 9 new starters in their offense? Just curious. Team moves the ball well at times and the shoots themselves in the foot on a constanr basis. McD said our O is in year one of its rebuild while our defense is in year 3. You gotta give it time. We’re winning games, that’s all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddyjj Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: good stuff here HBF! Interesting that 7/10 of the top passer rating teams are in top 10 of Power ratings and the Falcons, Raiders and Detroit are all .500 teams or worse. I believe that the Bills need to score 25 pts per game and hold opponents to under 18 ppg to make it to playoffs and be a factor in playoffs this year. Currently Bills average 19 ppg scored and are given up 17 ppg. The offense must improve dramatically and average at least one more TD per game on a go forward basis to have the ability to win each game handily. Josh Allen and Daboll have some work to do. The Offense is healthy now and has a full complement of parts so lets see what they can do to improve. Edited October 31, 2019 by freddyjj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 12 minutes ago, Gugny said: Who, exactly, would you have liked Beane to trade for. And at what price? The real good scoring guys for 7th round draft picks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, freddyjj said: good stuff here HBF! Interesting that 7/10 of the top passer rating teams are in top 10 of Power ratings and the Falcons, Raiders and Detroit are all 500 teams or worse. I believe that the Bills need to score 25 pts per game and hold opponents to under 18 ppg to make it to playoffs and be a factor in playoffs this year. Currently Bills average 19 ppg scored and are given up 17 ppg. The offense must improve dramatically and average at least one more TD per game on a go forward basis to have the ability to win each game handily. Josh Allen and Daboll have some work to do. The Offense is healthy now and as a full complement of parts so lets see what they can do to improve. I have a bias and I'll put it out there. I think there are occasional QBs who are amazeballs passers out the gate. Andrew Luck was one. After sitting a year, Pat Mahomes was another. More commonly, especially when a young QB is a known project, the QB's Best Friend is a well-developed and effective run game. If the QB can count on the run game to move the chains, it opens up all sorts of opportunities for the pass. So my bias is that what our team really needs, is a more reliable and effective rushing game. It's no accident that some of these young QB who "came out of nowhere" and look pretty durn good (Kyle Allen, Gardner Minshew) are supported by strong rush attacks. (We do have a fair number of rushing yards, but I think it's fair to say no opponent regards us as "they'll run it, and run it effectively, until you stop 'em") When we hear reporters probing Daboll about "what is your offense's identity?" "does your offense have an identity?" this is really what they're asking in kind of a polite way. It's clear that Josh is just NOT at a point, as a passer, where he can carry the team on his arm. He's taken huge steps this season, but he just isn't there. He's still learning to read the defense and set the protections and figure out where to go with the ball, and it makes him slow sometimes and then the protection can't hold or the timing is off. We are FAR more likely to take a step IMO if Daboll focuses more on establishing a sound and reliable run game. But it's my fear that he'll continue to try to push Allen into trying to establish a passing game for our offense that he really just isn't quite up to yet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: In other words, no real evidence, just "looks that way to me"? We also had a bit of a goal post shift here - you started out "points will be at a premium until...." and now it's "we should be aiming for a QB who..." Let's stick with the "points will be at a premium until" premise, you good with that? Let's try a quick exercise. Here's a list of the current top 10 NFL teams on points scored, and a list of the current top 10 teams by passer rating (which happens to be all the teams with passer ratings over 100). What do you notice? Maybe, just maybe, factors other than whether the QB has a passer rating >100 (or some other arbitrary number) impact the quality of an offense. We've played who we've played. This is like a few years back where people wanted to dismiss our running game and say it wasn't that good, because of how many rush yards Tyrod Taylor gained, and subtract those from the total. It turned out that when one took out the yards gained by all the QBs, we still had a very good running game. Not quite as good, but still very very good. Point being, if you want to play the "diss us off because we've played bad offenses" game, you need to apply the same metric to all the other teams on that list somehow (also show your work- offenses ranked by what metric?) We should be aiming for a QB who does that. Saying we shouldn't is really sad. Allen is currently 28th in QB Rating. The Bills are currently 24th in scoring at just over 19 points a game. Neither is good enough, and I'm 100% certain that if Allen's QB Rating was at least 10 points higher, we'd be scoring a lot more points. Our passing game is really bad. For Allen to actually be our franchise QB he needs to get a heck of a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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