DVOA: #25

[GoBills808]

The people who think this is an accurate ranking should be THRILLED we're 5-2, then. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The people who think this is an accurate ranking should be THRILLED we're 5-2, then. 

 

You'd think. But you and I know it's not about the record with these ppl

[Coach Tuesday]

17 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You'd think. But you and I know it's not about the record with these ppl

Those hack scientists and their corrupt liberal agendas!

[Commsvet11]

17 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You'd think. But you and I know it's not about the record with these ppl

Because it’s not the final record. 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

You'd think. But you and I know it's not about the record with these ppl

According to them, the Bills are a poorly coached, low talent team that should somehow be better than 5-2.

 

Literally can’t make this up.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

35 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

According to them, the Bills are a poorly coached, low talent team that should somehow be better than 5-2.

 

Literally can’t make this up.

 

No one said it was based on logic.

[SJDK]

DVDA, c’mon you guys know what movie that is from!

[LSHMEAB]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The people who think this is an accurate ranking should be THRILLED we're 5-2, then. 

Absolutely I am. We're a week removed from one of McD's worst coaching performances, but I don't think there's any question his teams have found ways to maximize win totals dating back to 2017. Credit where credit is due.

[HappyDays]

Someone might have already pointed this out but there's quite a large discrepancy between our DVOA and our VOA. DVOA accounts for strength of opponent, VOA does not. It is a pure measurement of the value the team provides on a play to play basis. It still accounts for context like down and distance and game situation (i.e. a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 20 while down by 21 points is not as valuable as a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 9 while down by 3 points).

 

In DVOA we are ranked 25th, in VOA we are ranked 17th. Our total team value increases by 12.5% when you remove strength of opponent. Only two teams, the Titans and Patriots, have a larger discrepancy between DVOA and VOA.

 

The main cause of this discrepancy is our defense. In DVOA they are ranked 16th, in VOA they are ranked 3rd. Our defensive value increases by 10.1%, only the Patriots have a larger discrepancy.

 

So we are being affected by strength of schedule quite a bit in this analysis. I'm not sure how much, if at all, DVOA factors in QB changes. We've played Darnold and Fitzpatrick - is our defensive DVOA punished because other teams got to play Falk and Rosen?

Edited November 2, 2019 by HappyDays

[Rock'em Sock'em]

Hmmm... I guess there's a good chance that we'll be on this list next year.

https://www.sportscasting.com/the-5-worst-teams-to-win-a-super-bowl-2/

 

[Jrb1979]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Someone might have already pointed this out but there's quite a large discrepancy between our DVOA and our VOA. DVOA accounts for strength of opponent, VOA does not. It is a pure measurement of the value the team provides on a play to play basis. It still accounts for context like down and distance and game situation (i.e. a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 20 while down by 21 points is not as valuable as a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 9 while down by 3 points).

 

In DVOA we are ranked 25th, in VOA we are ranked 17th. Our total team value increases by 12.5% when you remove strength of opponent. Only two teams, the Titans and Patriots, have a larger discrepancy between DVOA and VOA.

 

The main cause of this discrepancy is our defense. In DVOA they are ranked 16th, in VOA they are ranked 3rd. Our defensive value increases by 10.1%, only the Patriots have a larger discrepancy.

 

So we are being affected by strength of schedule quite a bit in this analysis. I'm not sure how much, if at all, DVOA factors in QB changes. We've played Darnold and Fitzpatrick - is our defensive DVOA punished because other teams got to play Falk and Rosen?

Why shouldn't strength of schedule be taken into affect? The 49ers defense should be ranked a lot higher then Buffalos cause of who they have played. I know a lot of you always want to put a positive spin on anything Bills but you can't throw out DVOA cause of they play the defense near the bottom 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

The 49ers defense should be ranked a lot higher then Buffalos cause of who they have played.

 

That's not true at all. Going by DVOA the Bills defense has faced the 2nd easiest schedule, while SF's defense has faced the 4th easiest. The SF defense is definitely much better than ours regardless of strength of schedule. In pure VOA, they beat us by a whopping 36.3%. For context, the difference between our defense and the 2nd worst defense in the league is 34.7%. So the jump from 31 to 3 is less than the jump from 3 to 2. That's crazy. And New England is another 10.1% higher than SF. SF and New England are in an entirely different tier from everyone else in both VOA and DVOA.

 

The only issue with strength of schedule is it is not consistent. The Jets offense in week 1 was much better than the Jets offense in weeks 2 through 5. Certain teams match up better against others. We match up much better against the Patriots offense than the Eagles offense for example.

 

As the season goes on my prediction is that the discrepancy between our VOA and DVOA will start to come down. Playing Haskins over Keenum and Allen over Flacco will help even that out.

[Big Blitz]

Here are their preseason projections and our 24 percent chance of making the playoffs and only 7 wins, The Jets 34 percent, Green Bay only 25 percent, Detroit 41 percent chance, Minnesota 35 percent, the Chargers being the 3rd best team in the league, Indy only 7 wins....

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2019/2019-dvoa-projections

 

 

 

And our preseason rank....25th.   Looks like they just want to stick close to their rankings and claim "absurdly accurate."   

 

 

Numbers have made everything less fun.  But at least people feel better about gambling.   

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Here are their preseason projections and our 24 percent chance of making the playoffs and only 7 wins, The Jets 34 percent, Green Bay only 25 percent, Detroit 41 percent chance, Minnesota 35 percent, the Chargers being the 3rd best team in the league, Indy only 7 wins....

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2019/2019-dvoa-projections

 

 

 

And our preseason rank....25th.   Looks like they just want to stick close to their rankings and claim "absurdly accurate."   

 

 

Numbers have made everything less fun.  But at least people feel better about gambling.   

 

Yuppppppp

 

DVOA is another one of those completely meaningless invented stats that has ZERO correlation to outcome.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Yuppppppp

 

DVOA is another one of those completely meaningless invented stats that has ZERO correlation to outcome.

 

You sound like someone who does bet or likes losing money.  Because DVOA certainly helps when betting games. 

 

And we be praising the DVOA if it was higher for us.  We’re 5-2 and that’s the bottom line.  But no one is favoring us against another good team.  We’re the team that beats the bad ones and loses to the good ones.  And we can make the playoffs, that’s cool too.  But we certainly will be underdogs. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

You sound like someone who does bet or likes losing money.  Because DVOA certainly helps when betting games. 

 

And we be praising the DVOA if it was higher for us.  We’re 5-2 and that’s the bottom line.  But no one is favoring us against another good team.  We’re the team that beats the bad ones and loses to the good ones.  And we can make the playoffs, that’s cool too.  But we certainly will be underdogs. 

 

I don't bet. Find it to be repugnant.

 

[BringBackOrton]

On 10/30/2019 at 11:16 PM, KzooMike said:

So much debate about how good we really are. It's indicative of every hot start we have had since the start of the playoff drought. Expectations rise and crash just as fast.

 

DVOA is disgustingly accurate KPI brought to you by Football Outsiders. It is to the NFL what KenPom is to College Basketball.

 

DVOA has us ranked 25th in the league with wins against, TEN 24th, NYG 26th, NYJ 30th, CIN 31st, and Miami 32nd. DVOA estimates us at 3-4. Which when you review each game and evaluate each teams DVOA against ours seems spot on. That's not to turn this into a negative thread. We will make the playoffs. I Babe Ruth'ed my shot on that one during the off-season. 

 

While I do believe we are accurately pegged on DVOA I also believe the way this team plays is designed to win swing games. Our defense is no bend and snap, ranking 2nd in the league in most third down attempts by offenses, 12th in 3rd down %, 3rd in yards per play Allowed, 5th in first downs per game, 5th in red zone attempts per game. Then dear gawd, 28th in RZ touchdown %. In sum, teams do not drive on us. We make that very difficult. If they do, they generally score touchdowns. Most of the league has below average QB play. So even getting in a position to impact our biggest weakness is not common. 

 

On the offensive side I will site one statistic. We rank first in the league in RZ TD scoring % and I put a lot of that on the very tangible impact of Josh Allen in the RZ. His ability to run, extend plays, and make very challenging throws (while seemingly improving his decision making) is all very abnormal in a condensed part of the field. But again, the way he plays, I see him being a Red Zone match up nightmare. He is also one of the few non franchise (current) QB's that seems to be a closer on the final drive.  

 

I think we will see the occasional dud on defense as better teams get deeper into the RZ. Just as we will see our offense struggle to ever reach the RZ and take advantage of it's best strength. In a league built with a lot of truly porous defenses and low quality QB play we will beat most the teams within 5-10 rankings of our DVOA that fit that description . End result is a Wild Card team and a chance at potentially winning a road playoff game. Prior to the year that would have been considered a smashing success. Even if we beat Philadelphia it was still far and away the most probable outcome as far as a road wild card team. Enjoy the ride guys. It's usually never as good or bad as it seems.        

Our red zone % is good because Josh never gets us there.

[C.Biscuit97]

11 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I don't bet. Find it to be repugnant.

 

It is when you win. Sucks when you lose though!  I only do little bets because That’s enough for me.  Plus seeing people lose $1,000 bets is a good way to see how people ruin their lives. 

Edited November 2, 2019 by C.Biscuit97

[CommonCents]

On 10/31/2019 at 7:44 AM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

the day DVOA actually indicates a Win let me know.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean, how did that point differential thing work out last week? 

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You sound like someone who does bet or likes losing money.  Because DVOA certainly helps when betting games. 

 

And we be praising the DVOA if it was higher for us.  We’re 5-2 and that’s the bottom line.  But no one is favoring us against another good team.  We’re the team that beats the bad ones and loses to the good ones.  And we can make the playoffs, that’s cool too.  But we certainly will be underdogs. 

 

 

Yes we'll be underdogs bc we're on the road and likely playing a very good team.  Stunning.  

 

I don't care what the "math" says I like this team's chances against most any team we play.  We're 2 years removed from a complete purging of this roster.  These WRs have been working with Josh for barely 7 months.  The oline is completely new.  I guess we should be steamrolling teams on our way to 14-2?  Best team in 30 years?  Critics of this team on local radio or national media that's essentially what they're saying they need to see in order to "buy in."  Its ridiculous.

 

 

[Troll Toll]

Things change week to week in the NFL. The Pats lost to the Dolphins last year. Our defense looked like world beaters until 2 weeks ago. Allen is actually looking better from week to week this year. We were very much in the game last week into the 3rd quarter. There is no reason our defense can’t recalibrate. Our team is built to grind out hard nosed victories that playoff games typically turn into. I don’t care what the DVOA says, the Bills are built to make a run this year at a possible Super Bowl.

[HappyDays]

41 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

I mean, how did that point differential thing work out last week? 

 

Last week the Bills were ranked 21st in DVOA and the Eagles were ranked 15th. Not sure where we were when we played New England but they are currently 2nd. We played them much closer than we played the Eagles though. DVOA isn't predictive in the way you think it is. I'm not sure any stat in the NFL is predictive. It's at most a 16 game sample size and teams change drastically from week to week.

[CommonCents]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Last week the Bills were ranked 21st in DVOA and the Eagles were ranked 15th. Not sure where we were when we played New England but they are currently 2nd. We played them much closer than we played the Eagles though. DVOA isn't predictive in the way you think it is. I'm not sure any stat in the NFL is predictive. It's at most a 16 game sample size and teams change drastically from week to week.

I don't remember saying DVOA is predictive of anything. 

 

All you can go by is what you have have seen on a week to week basis. The Bills have struggled against bad teams. They are have played two “good” teams and lost to both. 

 

If Allen takes a step forward and starts hitting on some of the deeper stuff folks won’t be so worried. 

 

Feel good blowout this week. 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

 

Again, we still will make the playoffs in my opinion, but when Vegas pegs you as even on a neutral field with the Browns and this information feeds into Vegas and supports it. Yes, these rankings are accurate from my chair. Had we won by a few points it wouldn't have changed my view on that.    

[Seven-N-Nine]

On 11/2/2019 at 5:01 PM, CommonCents said:

I don't remember saying DVOA is predictive of anything. 

 

All you can go by is what you have have seen on a week to week basis. The Bills have struggled against bad teams. They are have played two “good” teams and lost to both. 

 

If Allen takes a step forward and starts hitting on some of the deeper stuff folks won’t be so worried. 

 

Feel good blowout this week. 

 

 

And now they have lost to a bad team, I'm wondering if they will be an underdog in Miami now.

[Mikie2times]

18 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

And now they have lost to a bad team, I'm wondering if they will be an underdog in Miami now.

According to DVOA and Vegas the line it was even on a neutral field. According to the final score the line we even on a neutral field. From rankings 23-32 ten teams exist, Buffalo being one of them at 25. We are 6-1 against those teams, 1-1 against teams 23 and 24. 0-2 against everybody else. I'm not a doomsday person here. Nobody thought playoffs when the season started and we have done a great job at taking care of business against the teams slotted worse (6-0). That's an impressive 6-0, but where we are, it's not far off our preseason expectations. Every game we play each week is up for grabs. We shouldn't be assumed to be better or write in wins against anybody.