Hockenson at #9 Change My Mind

[JM57]

This is my #1 guy at 9 now. Pretty much locked in. Jawaan Taylor and Ed Oliver are all right there. Any one of the 3 and I'm happy

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I was fully on board with Hockenson at 9 early in the draft season but have changed my mind as the draft process has progressed. I really like Hockenson as a player and believe he would be an excellent fit in Buffalo. Injuries aside, Hockenson has little chance of busting due to his talent and work ethic. At the very least he will become a solid blocking and receiving tight end.

 

But is that the best decision at 9. I now feel that the Bills could get better value out of that slot by taking a defensive lineman. The DL is highly rated this year and is a more valued position than tight end. Even though there is depth at DL this year, it generally is harder to find talented edge and interior linemen in the middle rounds. Conversely, history shows that year after year quality tight ends are being drafted in the middle rounds. In fact, there are more quality tight ends being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than in the first. Having looked at the numbers it seems to make sense to take DL (a real position of need) over a tight end (somewhat of a need after the signing of Croft and development of Croom). Tight end is also deep this year and there will be quality tight ends available in the middle rounds. Bills need to wait on TE and trust that they can identify and target one of those middle round TEs. That would be the best way to maximize value and I strongly believe the Bills are going DL at pick 9.

 

A easier way to look at it would be top end comparisons: Let's say Hockenson's high end is Travis Kelce. But let's say the high end comparison for Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Who would you rather have at a cost controlled 5 year contract, Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce? To me the answer is Donald and that is one of the main reasons I would prefer the Bills draft a DL like Ed Oliver over at TE Hockenson at 9. We could stll come back in round 4 and draft a Kaden Smith at TE who could end up being a Jason Witten type (not a lot of speed but knows how to get open in middle of field and uses size and leverage).

 

Agreed...you've basically come around to where I've been for a while:

That's not intended to be a diss by the way; I think more folks should pay attention to positional value over player ability when it comes to first round picks.

 

[Victory Formation]

I'd like Oliver at 9, if he's gone I want Taylor.

[YoloinOhio]

I put this in the pro Day thread but this is why you don’t take a TE at 9. I don’t think Knox is a 1st rounder but he’s a top 50 . Scheduled to visit Bills btw.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

30 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I put this in the pro Day thread but this is why you don’t take a TE at 9. I don’t think Knox is a 1st rounder but he’s a top 50 . Scheduled to visit Bills btw.

 

 

 

Are you saying that you can get a guy almost equivalent to hock in the second round?

That's why you don't take him in the first?

(Honest clarification on your post)

 

 

I love hock.

I haven't seen much on the other tight ends outside of Smith, fant, and Jace

If there's some other guys who popsvalmost as much that the bills can get later then I'm cool with that too.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Are you saying that you can get a guy almost equivalent to hock in the second round?

That's why you don't take him in the first?

(Honest clarification on your post)

 

 

I love hock.

I haven't seen much on the other tight ends outside of Smith, fant, and Jace

If there's some other guys who popsvalmost as much that the bills can get later then I'm cool with that too.

Yes

[BillsFanForever19]

I remember reading the reason we moved on from O'Leary was that Beane preferred long armed TE's with a large catch radius.

 

If that's the case, that doesn't bode well for Hockenson:

 

[NewEraBills]

Another thing I'd be asking is what are Josh Allen's best throws?  From what I saw on his college tape and what we saw this last season I'd say:

1. Go's

2. Posts from the Perimeter

3.  Digs from the Perimeter

4.  Crossers

5.  Deep Outs

6.  Deep Comebacks

 

To me these were Allen's best throws during his time at Wyoming and it showed last year in his rookie season with us.  Given this data, a picture comes up.  Allen's best throws are perimeter passes.  This is not to say that he cannot do the others it's just those perimeter throws is where he shines.  With that in mind, I would try to get him premium perimeter help first.

Edited March 29, 2019 by NewEraBills

[YoloinOhio]

33 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I remember reading the reason we moved on from O'Leary was that Beane preferred long armed TE's with a large catch radius.

 

If that's the case, that doesn't bode well for Hockenson:

 

Hes not very tall. 6’4? I love everything about him as a player but he lacks elite traits. Top 10 doesn’t work for me. I think the media has overrated him a bit since the season ended. Jmo 

[SirAndrew]

On 3/27/2019 at 7:48 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

This is where I am. First round TE’s have a terrible track record of being good investments. We can talk about how Gronk, Ertz, and Kelce are difference makers all we want. The truth is those guys were second and third round picks. I’m not using my 9th pick on that position. 

[racketmaster]

24 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

This is where I am. First round TE’s have a terrible track record of being good investments. We can talk about how Gronk, Ertz, and Kelce are difference makers all we want. The truth is those guys were second and third round picks. I’m not using my 9th pick on that position. 

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

[SirAndrew]

12 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

Thanks, great information. I felt similarly about Hockenson. Since a good TE would be a big help to Allen, I wouldn’t have frowned over the selection. Upon deeper scrutiny I noticed that game changing TE’s are rarely found in the first round. I agree that he’d need to be a generational talent to make that selection at 9th overall. He’s not, so I’d prefer to look elsewhere. 

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

 

Not gonna go through every one but gronk was a first round grade who dropped because of injury red flag.

Most of those guys are pure receiving tight ends from just glancing it over, hock is a complete package like gronk who blocks great as well as receives great.

He's an every down TE, unlike guys like Graham who are basically big slot receivers.

 

[Victory Formation]

Yeah, I could see that. He's definitely an interesting option.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 3/28/2019 at 6:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. I think Hock is a good player and he is an "all round" TE.... but to be a first round TE I want that person to be a game breaker in the passing game...... I had OJ Howard as just about a first rounder a couple of years ago and he was, to me at least, a higher ceiling receiver. Hock for me is on that 1st / 2nd borderline. I think he probably gets drafted in the first 16 picks but that is too rich for my tastes.

 

If your passing game revolves around a TE the opposition can shut you down simply by putting a *good* CB on that TE.

 

And no TE can consistently block a great DE.

 

So basically a TE is a player who really needs to be schemed into effectiveness.

 

On the other hand.......players who can dominate "on an island" check all of the boxes..........they can win the matchup with the man in front of them..............they therefore make the big bucks and rarely do great ones reach UFA..........first round picks are generally your best shot to get those guys.