THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Bills Come Back, Hold on to Beat Lions

[Bring it]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  You make a really good point.  I'm not sure either you nor I know whether he's a conservative coach or he's a smart coach being conservative now because that gives his team the best chance to win. I've said often the past few weeks that I hope and expect he'll open up more next season, when he should have stronger offense. 

 

One of the reasons I say he's conservative (or at least playing the season conservatively) is  that it seems very clear to me that he doesn't seem to care much if his team scores in the first half, so long as he keeps the game close.   He doesn't take risks in the first half.  I call that conservative.  I get it, and I don't particularly dislike it, but it isn't wide open football in the first half.  And, although I agree it's unfair to conclude he's Jauron all over again, Jauron's philosophy very definitely was stay close until the end, which meant play good defense and don't take chances on offense.  Until McDermott's team starts regularly putting up 21-point first halves, I think that at least that part of his coaching style can be called conservative.  

 

Also, EVERY coach whose team is out of the playoff hunt is going for it on fourth down now, so I wasn't surprised when he did it yesterday.   It didn't take any courage to take that shot.  

 

Plus, his certainly looks like a bend-don't-break defense, which is a conservative approach.   Now, that too may change as his talent improves and his guys know his system.   

 

Still, I think what you say is probably true.  Next year we'll know, because next year he should have a roster with players he wants playing the way he wants to play.   Then we'll know better.  

Yes, Mcd is playing to his strengths. Yesterday we had just enough run game to help. Barely enough!! The Lions did have to play the run some but probably they were more concerned with Allen scrambling. That fear does help open up the intermediate routes, especially with the speed of Foster and Mckensie taking the top off! Next year will be a clear indicator of how the will build this offense around Josh!

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Just Joshin' said:

But he claps too much and therefore must be fired before he can clap again.

 

Hahaha nice one

 

I honestly have no idea why some here talk about his clapping.  Most coaches I had when I played sports all clapped to rally troops all the time.  Most players too.  Its not even abnormal or an anomaly.

 

In fact, I like it...he always has energy, hes always trying to get his guy energy up.  I MUCH PREFER to have my coach fired up always, clapping and yelling at the players then just stand their on the sidelines quiet and moping.  How many coaches have we had that had no fire on those sidelines?  It was sickening to watch

 

I mean the negative clapping narrative on this board is quite honestly the stupidest thing to ever exist on this board.  And this board had doozie threads like Trade Mario for Skelton straight up.  

[Bring it]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hahaha nice one

 

I honestly have no idea why some here talk about his clapping.  Most coaches I had when I played sports all clapped to rally troops all the time.  Most players too.  Its not even abnormal or an anomaly.

 

In fact, I like it...he always has energy, hes always trying to get his guy energy up.  I MUCH PREFER to have my coach fired up always, clapping and yelling at the players then just stand their on the sidelines quiet and moping.  How many coaches have we had that had no fire on those sidelines?  It was sickening to watch

 

I mean the negative clapping narrative on this board is quite honestly the stupidest thing to ever exist on this board.  And this board had doozie threads like Trade Mario for Skelton straight up.  

Are you referring to Dick Jauron?? Yeah rather have the clapping.

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, T&C said:

Good write up as usual Shaw, but this one thing I'm not too sure about:

 

 "Both teams were out of the playoff picture" I was under the impression that the Lions were still in the running for a wild card spot before the game yesterday.  They certainly are eliminated now for sure. Or did I hear something wrong on the gameday shows?

Looking at the standings, I'm sure you are correct and I was wrong.   They had a shot at 8-8, and there aren't many teams with nine wins or more.  So they had wild-card shot.   

 

Hmmm.  That makes it a better win for the Bills.   

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

This is true, but at the same time, the great receivers make life easier for their QBs. I saw Stafford make some throws that were virtually identical to the ones you cited, but his receivers made great catches while ours didn't.

 

There's a lot of room for improvement in every element of our passing game. In order, I'd say the need for improvement goes like this:

1. Receivers

2. O-line

3. Allen

 

The fact that Allen is last on that list doesn't mean he's nearly perfect; it's really more of a testament to how bad the receiving corps and the O-line are right now.

 

 

Agree 100% with this. Contested catches, circus catches, catches with the db in tight coverage...plus Stafford's very nice throws mixed in. 

 

 

[T&C]

33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Looking at the standings, I'm sure you are correct and I was wrong.   They had a shot at 8-8, and there aren't many teams with nine wins or more.  So they had wild-card shot.   

 

Hmmm.  That makes it a better win for the Bills.   

Yeah, we're back in the full bore spoiler mode... Nothing would be sweeter than pushing the pats into the #4 position and knocking the fins out for good.

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, T&C said:

Yeah, we're back in the full bore spoiler mode... Nothing would be sweeter than pushing the pats into the #4 position and knocking the fins out for good.

Yes, but if the Bills and Jets both beat the Pats, does a Bills loss to Miami put the Dolphins in and knock the Pats out altogether?  

[T&C]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, but if the Bills and Jets both beat the Pats, does a Bills loss to Miami put the Dolphins in and knock the Pats out altogether?  

It could and wouldn't that be sweet, but it will depend on what other AFC teams do in the next couple of weeks.

 

From the NY Times:

 

A.F.C. EAST
New England Patriots (9-5)
Best possible outcome: No. 1 seed

Worst possible outcome: Out

A Patriots win in either of their next two games would clinch the division title and a postseason berth. But the potential outcome of the team’s seed is highly variable. Winning out would make a bye week more likely than not, and even the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C. remains technically possible. But in the unlikely event of losing out — to the 5-9 Bills and the 4-10 Jets – the Patriots, at 9-7, could find themselves with the No. 6 seed or even missing the playoffs altogether.

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks Shaw

I might have missed it but the biggest thing we learned is just how important Milano is to this defense! I’m interested in your take on Edmunds at MLB because I continue to be unimpressed.

[TigerJ]

Lorenzo Alexander is on the record as saying he'd like to play one more year.  His production is such there isn't any reason for the Bills not to give him a meaningful one year deal.  No, he's not getting a big money deal, but there's no reason to low ball him with avet minimum offer either.

[VW82]

Fair write up though I'm hesitant to give Whaley credit for anything without mentioning that he wasted 5+ years of all of our collective time with bad football decisions. Good riddance!

 

If you look at the four game sample size since Allen has returned, he's 57/114 for 801 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.02 YPA. It's not great but when you consider all the big plays, the scrambles, the fact he has little help at receiver...it's enough to think he might be a player we can build around. For me this is the first time he's hit that check point - I get a lot of people here hit that check point the moment we drafted him - and it's because of his development on the field. That said, he still needs to figure out how to score points. We've only averaged 19.5 points since Josh has returned and that isn't nearly enough. He's left some points out there.

Edited December 17, 2018 by VW82

[Shaw66]

50 minutes ago, T&C said:

It could and wouldn't that be sweet, but it will depend on what other AFC teams do in the next couple of weeks.

 

From the NY Times:

 

A.F.C. EAST
New England Patriots (9-5)
Best possible outcome: No. 1 seed

Worst possible outcome: Out

A Patriots win in either of their next two games would clinch the division title and a postseason berth. But the potential outcome of the team’s seed is highly variable. Winning out would make a bye week more likely than not, and even the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C. remains technically possible. But in the unlikely event of losing out — to the 5-9 Bills and the 4-10 Jets – the Patriots, at 9-7, could find themselves with the No. 6 seed or even missing the playoffs altogether.

So here's a scenario for you:

 

Bills beat the Pats and they're tied with the Dolphins half way through the third quarter.   Jets are romping over the Pats.   

 

I'm putting McDermott on a temporary leave of absence and bringing in Rex as the fourth quarter interim head coach, so that Rex can lead the tank job that leaves the Pats out of the playoffs.  

16 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Fair write up though I'm hesitant to give Whaley credit for anything without mentioning that he wasted 5+ years of all of our collective time with bad football decisions. Good riddance!

 

If you look at the four game sample size since Allen has returned, he's 57/114 for 801 yards, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.02 YPA. It's not great but when you consider all the big plays, the scrambles, the fact he has little help at receiver...it's enough to think he might be a player we can build around. For me this is the first time he's hit that check point - I get a lot of people here hit that check point the moment we drafted him - and it's because of his development on the field. That said, he still needs to figure out how to score points. We've only averaged 19.5 points since Josh has returned and that isn't nearly enough.  

That's a 70.1 passer rating, which puts him in EJ rookie territory.   

 

I think the passer rating is the best way to evaluate QBs statistically, flaws or not, and 70.1 ain't cutting it.   However, I think there are plenty of legitimate explanations for it.   I'm relying on what I'm seeing, and I think he's a star in the making.  

[T&C]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So here's a scenario for you:

 

Bills beat the Pats and they're tied with the Dolphins half way through the third quarter.   Jets are romping over the Pats.   

 

I'm putting McDermott on a temporary leave of absence and bringing in Rex as the fourth quarter interim head coach, so that Rex can lead the tank job that leaves the Pats out of the playoffs.  

I mentioned this exact same scenario somewhere else, you know, and to be honest its a dirty kind of thing to even mention but yes, I'd not mind us taking the hit if it meant keeping the pats out of the playoffs. Its not like the fins will go anywhere in the post season, kind of like us last year imo.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

It's a game that tells us nothing about how good this version of the Bills will be. 

 

No way does Sunday tilt the needle to Allen "has it" and is trending towards being a winning NFL QB. 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

It's a game that tells us nothing about how good this version of the Bills will be. 

 

No way does Sunday tilt the needle to Allen "has it" and is trending towards being a winning NFL QB. 

I simply can't agree.   The guy is doing too many of things that we've wanted a QB to do for years.  

 

His ability to hit open receivers consistently over the middle and on the sideline, 10 to 20 yards downfield is enough to convince me.   I'll be amazed if he isn't a top-15 QB next season.   

[njbuff]

Allen is doing as good a job as a rookie QB can with the hideous supporting cast he has.

 

And that is counting on the fact that the offense's 2nd best player (Dawkins) isn't having a stellar season by any means protecting his blind side.

 

Now it is up to McBeane to get this kid a supporting cast to help him out.

 

With basically 85-100 mill in cap space and 10 draft choices......... it can almost be accomplished in one offseason.

[jlgarsh]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  You make a really good point.  I'm not sure either you nor I know whether he's a conservative coach or he's a smart coach being conservative now because that gives his team the best chance to win. I've said often the past few weeks that I hope and expect he'll open up more next season, when he should have stronger offense. 

 

One of the reasons I say he's conservative (or at least playing the season conservatively) is  that it seems very clear to me that he doesn't seem to care much if his team scores in the first half, so long as he keeps the game close.   He doesn't take risks in the first half.  I call that conservative.  I get it, and I don't particularly dislike it, but it isn't wide open football in the first half.  And, although I agree it's unfair to conclude he's Jauron all over again, Jauron's philosophy very definitely was stay close until the end, which meant play good defense and don't take chances on offense.  Until McDermott's team starts regularly putting up 21-point first halves, I think that at least that part of his coaching style can be called conservative.  

 

Also, EVERY coach whose team is out of the playoff hunt is going for it on fourth down now, so I wasn't surprised when he did it yesterday.   It didn't take any courage to take that shot.  

 

Plus, his certainly looks like a bend-don't-break defense, which is a conservative approach.   Now, that too may change as his talent improves and his guys know his system.   

 

Still, I think what you say is probably true.  Next year we'll know, because next year he should have a roster with players he wants playing the way he wants to play.   Then we'll know better.  

I think he's been getting more aggressive as the season's gone on, and as Allen's been healthier.  Same with Daboll's playcalling.  Having WRs actually running routes unlike KB also helps.  Foster and McKenzie seem to have good chemistry with Allen.  It was nice seeing WRs run past the first down marker for a change instead of stopping short.  The past few years, on 3rd and long,  we might as well have punted.  Now, I feel like there's always a chance, even if the odds are bad of making it.

[GETTOTHE50]

35 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

The past few years, on 3rd and long,  we might as well have punted.  Now, I feel like there's always a chance, even if the odds are bad of making it.

 

Allen doesn’t seem to check the ball down often, which is anti-Brady/Tyrod and I love it.

 

Josh is always looking to make the big play, and the thing is, he can more than he can’t. That’s huge. It would be great if his receivers could bail him out a couple of times, IE deonte/zay/clay. 

 

He cant do EVERYTHING by himself. It’s like when welker dropped that pass from Brady in the super bowl. Maybe the throw could have been better from tommy, but the play was there to be made. That was on Welks.

 

Give Allen some playmakers and we will see how awesome it will get. 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

 

Allen doesn’t seem to check the ball down often, which is anti-Brady/Tyrod and I love it.

 

Josh is always looking to make the big play, and the thing is, he can more than he can’t. That’s huge. It would be great if his receivers could bail him out a couple of times, IE deonte/zay/clay. 

 

He cant do EVERYTHING by himself. It’s like when welker dropped that pass from Brady in the super bowl. Maybe the throw could have been better from tommy, but the play was there to be made. That was on Welks.

 

Give Allen some playmakers and we will see how awesome it will get. 

 

 

 

I agree.  And Allen is just a rookie.   He has a lot to learn.   Actually, there's a part of me that wants McKEnzie, Jones and Foster to be the starting receivers next season just so Allen will work with the same receivers for an entire off-season and season.   I think that alone would show improvement over this season. 

 

In fact, I'd be astonished if the starting wideouts next season were those three.  Someone better will show up, in free agency or the draft.   

 

Others have commented over the past few weeks, and it fits in this discussion, about how it's hard to remember one great catch this season.   We're not seeing many out and out drops, but we aren't seeing great catches from any of these guys.   I expect there'll be a better pass catcher somewhere in the lineup. 

[PUNT750]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not to sound like I am picking on you here, but I would also disagree a lot with this sentiment he doesn't try and score in the first half.  I dont know what gives you that impression.  I think sometimes people think if we aren't chucking it deep he is being conservative despite leading the league (I believe, or at least near the top) in deep shots.  We are also first in average of how far we throw per pass attempt which is somewhere around 10 ypa if I am not mistaken.  We aren't taking all those in the 2nd half only.  

 

Take this game for instance, we actually did a lot of what we all have wanted to see more of.  Taking shorter underneath easier throws, and Josh executed well and we were moving the ball.  A couple drives stalled due to penalties and drops though.  But ultimately we were successfully moving the ball this way where guys like Zay were struggling mightily in their matchups.  This allowed guys like Foster and McKenzie to get more opportunities.  Also the Lions have a strong pass defense, so the weaker part was the run defense.  And because of Allens threat as a runner, Lions were only rushing 4, sometimes 3 and trying to spy hard on Allen which gave our run game some opportunities they wanted to exploit. And we had some success, but injuries mounted.  

 

So again I just dont see a conservative coach.  I see a guy who loves to attack the defense, but also tries to gameplan to attack said defense.  But our ability to execute is also dependent on the talent on the field, and outside Allen there is very little to work with.  I mean the only real bright spot has been Foster outside of Allen.  

 

All good, respect your opinion, I just dont see this conservative nature of McD and see a guy who takes risks, is aggressive, and plays the hands he is dealt.  And is doing pretty good considering what he has had to work with so far.  NP and DA were so bad that NO coach could look good with them and this personnel around them.  But this Allen led team plays tough and can win on any given Sunday against anyone.  Like I said, if not for Clay drop and then the ST blunder the week after, Allen and McD together would be 7-2 this year when Allen starts.  

 

THANK YOU for this post and reply to the original poster.  I have noticed in all his posts a little biased against our young HC.  He's doing great with very little real NFL talent and a pure rookie QB.  I admire your strength to speak up!  The OP ran a lot of people off several boards because of his reputation!  GO BILLS!