Josh Allen's progress

[26CornerBlitz]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

 

[ctk232]

On 12/15/2018 at 8:26 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

Fan mail bag question to Chris Brown:

 

1 – From @StevenKubitza: Is Josh Allen running so much due to a lack of production from the backs, or just because it is part of his game?

 

CB: Most of Josh Allen’s runs are not by design. There are a few read option plays in the game plan each week, but by and large, and coach Daboll has confirmed this, most of his runs are off scramble plays that were pass play calls.

 

There are multiple reasons Allen is doing as much running as he is. First, at this point in Allen’s career he trusts what he can get with his legs more than he trusts what he’s seeing in coverage on a pass play.

 

Not all the time, but enough of the time.

 

So as he’s surveying the field, he’s looking to make a play with his arm, but if he’s not sure, in his head he knows he can get at least six to eight yards with his legs based on the space in front of him and he takes it. He’s also had to take off and run because of poor protection.

 

That’s not a terrible thing right now at this stage of his development. We do have to remember he has only started eight games.

 

In time however, he will need to read coverages better and have a plan with contingencies pre-snap, before the play unfolds, so he has multiple answers at his disposal as the play unfolds. This will make him a more effective player in the pocket.

 

Allen isn’t running because the backs aren’t having any success. He’s running because of where his development is in reading defenses and his ability to do so.

He's also doing it because it's part of Daboll's offensive scheme at present - I need to track down the article (likely from Cover1), but it was mentioned that Daboll is employing a lot of vertical concepts and looks (as Allen has the arm for these to be a threat every single time) in combination with Allen's physical ability to run. That is an absolute nightmare for defenses, especially LBs - just ask Kiko who looked confused pretty much the whole game. Because of his arm, it forces secondaries to stay honest with the speedy deep routes, and LBs will often get sucked into that vortex deep enough from the LOS that Allen can easily pick up 8-10 yard chunks, and likely more given his physical ability. In essence, it's a built in contingency that can often provide win-win scenarios if a defense can't counter it effectively.

 

Not discounting Brown's assessment here, as Allen absolutely trusts his ability to run. However, on the plays where he does decide to run, most appear to have limited options in terms of open receivers and only after he's gone through his progressions will he begin to look for escaping to the running lanes. He has tucked and ran too early on certain downs as well, where a throw may have resulted more positive yards - but I'm more okay with that this year as long as the overall progression is toward him becoming more comfortable in trusting his arm. But I do think the reason we see him running as much as he is is primarily due to the fact that Daboll has instituted this as a fundamental component of our offensive scheme.

Edited December 17, 2018 by ctk232

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

He's also doing it because it's part of Daboll's offensive scheme at present - I need to track down the article (likely from Cover1), but it was mentioned that Daboll is employing a lot of vertical concepts and looks (as Allen has the arm for these to be a threat every single time) in combination with Allen's physical ability to run. That is an absolute nightmare for defenses, especially LBs - just ask Kiko who looked confused pretty much the whole game. Because of his arm, it forces secondaries to stay honest with the speedy deep routes, and LBs will often get sucked into that vortex deep enough from the LOS that Allen can easily pick up 8-10 yard chunks, and likely more given his physical ability. In essence, it's a built in contingency that can often provide win-win scenarios if a defense can't counter it effectively.

 

Not discounting your assessment here, as Allen absolutely trusts his ability to run. However, on the plays where he does decide to run, most appear to have limited options in terms of open receivers and only after he's gone through his progressions will he begin to look for escaping to the running lanes. He has tucked and ran too early on certain downs as well, where a throw may have resulted more positive yards - but I'm more okay with that this year as long as the overall progression is toward him becoming more comfortable in trusting his arm. But I do think the reason you see him running as much as he is is primarily due to the fact that Daboll has instituted this as a fundamental component of our offensive scheme.

 

My assessment?  That's Chris Brown's answer. 

Edited December 17, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[ctk232]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

My assessment?  That's Chris brown's answer. 

Saw that after I posted, my bad - edited should be up

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, dakrider said:

oh well Stafford was almost 76% and no interceptions!  Lions must have just had their way with the Bills here and Allen only 50% must have had a terrible day!  
 

M. Stafford PASSING    
CP/ATT    YDS    TD    INT
22/29       208    1       0

J. Allen PASSING    
CP/ATT    YDS    TD    INT
13/26       204     1      0    1 Rush TD
 

But lets look here, I show about 11 of his passes were for 5 yards or less, of which at least 3 of them were on 3rd and long that they didn't get the first down.  

For this game, Stafford was either getting big pass plays from Golladay or throwing little dink passes.  If your offense is geared to simply hit the 5 yard pass you can do that but it requires great execution on about every play and it doesn't lend itself well to missed plays or penalties.  If the Bills tried to simply play this offense they would have lost this game but Allen would have had better stats!  

 

I would add that when Josh Allen was playing Mr. super completion percentage man and had jumped out to an 80% completion % (8/10) we still had not scored a single point.  It was only after Allen started throwing down the field that the O finally got in a groove that resulted in 14  points (it should have been 17 as it was a long pass that put us in FG range in the 3rd but we inexplicably went for it on 4th down instead). 

 

I'm starting to wonder if this whole % completion complaint isn't the last gasp of the Allen haters.  At this point it's a very misleading metric.  I guess these are the folks who believe irrelevant metrics are better then no metrics. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[2003Contenders]

17 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I would add that when Josh Allen was playing Mr. super completion percentage man and had jumped out to an 80% completion % (8/10) we still had not scored a single point.  It was only after Allen started throwing down the field that the O finally got in a groove that resulted in 14  points (it should have been 17 as it was a long pass that put us in FG range in the 3rd but we inexplicably went for it on 4th down instead). 

 

I'm starting to wonder if this whole % completion complaint isn't the last gasp of the Allen haters.  At this point it's a very misleading metric.  I guess these are the folks who believe irrelevant metrics are better then no metrics. 

 

Excellent point by both you and dakrider.

 

Would I like to see Josh Allen's completion percentage improve? Of course, I would. Each game we do see passes that we know he would love to have back. But completion % does not tell the whole story. (I believe Rob Johnson remains the all time Buffalo Bills leader in Completion Percentage!) And anyone who watched the game yesterday and came away believing that Josh Allen is a woefully inaccurate passer is being intellectually dishonest.

 

I would add also that a more meaningful stat than completion % would be yards per attempt. Even with Allen completing only 50% of his passes, he had a very solid 7.8 yards per attempt. That is quite a bit better than Stafford's 7.17 -- even though Stafford had a considerably higher completion percentage. Note without comment that Mahomes, whom so many Bills fans appear to lamenting as the one we let get away, this past week was 24 of 34 for 243 yards. Yet again, significantly higher completion percentage but a yards per attempt number that was even lower than Stafford's: 7.14.

 

That doesn't even factor in all of the dropped passes and DPI.

[LABILLBACKER]

31 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I would add that when Josh Allen was playing Mr. super completion percentage man and had jumped out to an 80% completion % (8/10) we still had not scored a single point.  It was only after Allen started throwing down the field that the O finally got in a groove that resulted in 14  points (it should have been 17 as it was a long pass that put us in FG range in the 3rd but we inexplicably went for it on 4th down instead). 

 

I'm starting to wonder if this whole % completion complaint isn't the last gasp of the Allen haters.  At this point it's a very misleading metric.  I guess these are the folks who believe irrelevant metrics are better then no metrics. 

I stopped looking at completion % a long time ago. The Bills lead the NFL in drops. Josh's true % factoring in drops and throwaways is probably over 60+%. 

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

No doubt this was expected in FFL playoffs. 

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

That is great.  Thanks for sharing that Transplant.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

4. Bills QB Josh Allen was pretty raw and needed significant fundamental work coming out of Wyoming. Buffalo is looking for progress from their rookie quarterback, and yesterday’s win gave the team plenty of hope that what they’re trying to teach him—to take what the defense gives him and to protect himself when he runs—is starting to take. It showed yesterday, even with pedestrian numbers to show for it.

 

One play that was pulled for me was a first-and-10 in the third quarter on which, at the snap, Allen had receivers going vertical. In September, he may have taken a shot there. Here, instead, he calmly saw the defense falling off, and checked it down to running back Keith Ford, swinging into the flat, for seven yards. It’s a small example, but important given Allen’s propensity for home-run swings.

 

 

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

That is great.  Thanks for sharing that Transplant.

 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Everything else aside......how can anyone who claims to be a Bills fan not want to see this young man succeed?

He's FUN to watch.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[BillsSB2020]

YPA is right on par with completion percentage as a metric. Who cares if you go 1 for 2 if you hit an 11 yarder to move the sticks?

[HalftimeAdjustment]

36 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said:

YPA is right on par with completion percentage as a metric. Who cares if you go 1 for 2 if you hit an 11 yarder to move the sticks?

 

Let's get the guy at the top of the rankings by YPA?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt