Josh Allen: Analytics

[Fadingpain]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Should that be "Billy! Billy!"?  Too lame?

 

I really don't think Leaf is a good comparator at all.  Allen can be very good or be (fill in a number of big-armed QB who worked hard and still just couldn't)

 

As I understand it, Ryan Leaf just had screwed up priorities.  Thought he was all that and a bag of chips having been hailed and feted all the way from high school.

Thought he could be a star NFL QB without really working to master his craft, then couldn't handle the "heat" of criticism.

 

Allen may not succeed, but he certainly wasn't having a praise-fest dunned into him from HS on.  He had to work his way up the food chain and he did.

I think you're over analyzing what the other poster meant by being another "Leaf."

 

For most fans, Ryan Leaf simply means "colossal bust" and he also happened to be a QB.

 

I agree he's not the best comp though for the reasons you state.

 

A better comp would be EJ Manuel.  He had a lot of physical attributes too, was mega high risk, but hard working and a good guy.  

 

I still say trying to turn Allen into a great QB is banging a square peg into a round hole, as the EJ project was, but time will tell.

 

 

 

 

[Spielman]

On ‎5‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 3:57 PM, billspro said:

 

Allen is a huge risk, no doubt. I had trouble evaluating him in the predraft process because he is the most talented QB I have ever seen. His 2017 tape was not good, but was also tough to evaluate because his WRs were not open and his line was brutal. Off of the tape I had him as the 6th ranked QB in this class. So I would not be shocked if he busts, but I would also not be surprised if he is a top 5 QB in the NFL. I don’t think there are any prospects comparable to him in the last 25 years. He will be an interesting case to see if someone can develop at the NFL level. It is rarely done, but if anyone is going to do it Allen will be the guy.

I'm pulling for him.......Allen played at one of the worst D-I programs in the country.  If he played at one of the best D-II schools (like Wentz), hi stats would no doubt have been better and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  If Brady is QB of that Wyoming team, I truly believe his stats would not be much better.   Allen's performance in the Senior Bowl with top level talent proved to me that he can play.

[GoBills808]

11 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

I think you're over analyzing what the other poster meant by being another "Leaf."

 

For most fans, Ryan Leaf simply means "colossal bust" and he also happened to be a QB.

 

I agree he's not the best comp though for the reasons you state.

 

A better comp would be EJ Manuel.  He had a lot of physical attributes too, was mega high risk, but hard working and a good guy.  

 

I still say trying to turn Allen into a great QB is banging a square peg into a round hole, as the EJ project was, but time will tell.

 

 

 

 

The differences between Allen and Manuel are so great and so varied that trying to list them all here in response to this post would be exhausting. Suffice to say the comparison is ridiculous.

[C.Biscuit97]

11 minutes ago, Loosh said:

I'm pulling for him.......Allen played at one of the worst D-I programs in the country.  If he played at one of the best D-II schools (like Wentz), hi stats would no doubt have been better and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  If Brady is QB of that Wyoming team, I truly believe his stats would not be much better.   Allen's performance in the Senior Bowl with top level talent proved to me that he can play.

Wyoming had the ninth best defense in all of college football.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming had the ninth best defense in all of college football.

i don't think that means too much.  at one point a few years ago, boston college had literally the best defense in all of college ball, and the worst offense in all of college football.  they held one team to 7 points, and another team to 3 points, and lost both of those games.  you can have a great defense, and still be a terrible team, (if that's the point you were trying to make).

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming had the ninth best defense in all of college football.

Where you getting 9th?

 

[teef]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Where you getting 9th?

 

i just looked, and saw it as 23.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, teef said:

i just looked, and saw it as 23.

Samesies. 

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Where you getting 9th?

 

Whoops, my bad. 12th. I was way off. 

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalPointsPerGame

19 minutes ago, teef said:

i don't think that means too much.  at one point a few years ago, boston college had literally the best defense in all of college ball, and the worst offense in all of college football.  they held one team to 7 points, and another team to 3 points, and lost both of those games.  you can have a great defense, and still be a terrible team, (if that's the point you were trying to make).

you don’t think it helps a qb if his defense doesn’t give up a lot of points?  You don’t think it hurt Rosen that his defense was 117?  If you were a qb, what’s easier - scoring 18 points/ game or 35?

 

im not saying it’s the end all be all.  But man, everyone tries to blame Wyoming like it was the worst program ever.  Their coaches won national championships with Carson Wentz and they had a good defense.

[Mikey152]

I posted this in another thread, but it underscores how the comp. % can be misleading...

 

On 3rd down and 7-9 yards (aka the money down/distance for quarterbacks) in 2017

 

Player A:  10/24  for 132 yards and a pick.  8 first downs.

Player B:  13/22 for 124 yards and a TD.  7 first downs.

Player C:  15/22 for 236 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

Player D:  16/28 for 162 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen....and that doesn't even factor in running.

 

Where those other guys gained tons of ground on Allen was on first and second down, where they threw 2-3x more often and all 4 completed a significantly higher number (easier throws and soft coverage).

Edited May 10, 2018 by Mikey152

[teef]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Whoops, my bad. 12th. I was way off. 

 

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalPointsPerGame

you don’t think it helps a qb if his defense doesn’t give up a lot of points?  You don’t think it hurt Rosen that his defense was 117?  If you were a qb, what’s easier - scoring 18 points/ game or 35?

 

im not saying it’s the end all be all.  But man, everyone tries to blame Wyoming like it was the worst program ever.  Their coaches won national championships with Carson Wentz and they had a good defense.

Nor am I defending Allen here. I think you try far too hard to put this kids down. Just let this play out at this point. Still am not sure where you get the 12th ranking from. The first google search shows 23. 

[Wayne Arnold]

44 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wyoming had the ninth best defense in all of college football.

 

Allen plays on offense. Not defense.

[metzelaars_lives]

For what it’s worth, yes, Wyoming’s defense was the best in the MWC last year and will be again this year.  Was a little surprised to hear Brandon Beane say that this Wyoming team won’t have any players on pro rosters, when a) they already do (Rico Gafford, CB- UDFA on Tennessee) and b) they’re gonna have a BUNCH in the next two years.  All on defense though.  For whatever that’s worth.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

Nor am I defending Allen here. I think you try far too hard to put this kids down. Just let this play out at this point. Still am not sure where you get the 12th ranking from. The first google search shows 23. 

Scoring defense. They gave up 17.8 points/ game.

 

I mean I get it.  We all want the guy to be great but I think people are making a lot of excuses for his play.

 

Dude has all the physical tools in the world but there’s a lot of work to be done. I’m skeptical because I’ve seen this before with the Bills and think there was a better player available.  But I want to be very, very wrong. 

[teef]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Scoring defense. They gave up 17.8 points/ game.

 

I mean I get it.  We all want the guy to be great but I think people are making a lot of excuses for his play.

 

Dude has all the physical tools in the world but there’s a lot of work to be done. I’m skeptical because I’ve seen this before with the Bills and think there was a better player available.  But I want to be very, very wrong. 

Oh I know. The development guys the bills try to bring along usually end in disaster. I’m nervous about it too. I’ve just decided to stop looking for negatives, and have my fingers crossed with my eyes covered. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 5/3/2018 at 1:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Josh Allen is big. Carson Wentz is big. Josh Allen can throw far. Wentz can throw far.  Allen went to an obscure College in a northern state where not many people live. Wentz went to an obscure college in a northern state where not many people live. 

 

Thus, Allen = Wentz. Analytics

Now that's my type of Analytics.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, teef said:

Oh I know. The development guys the bills try to bring along usually end in disaster. I’m nervous about it too. I’ve just decided to stop looking for negatives, and have my fingers crossed with my eyes covered. 

Trust me, I was the biggest homer ever.  I found a ton of positives in Trent, JP, & EJ.  I thought Rosen was the safer, better pick.  So I’m very cautious at getting too excited about a very raw prospect.  

 

Please prove me wrong Josh!

[teef]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Trust me, I was the biggest homer ever.  I found a ton of positives in Trent, JP, & EJ.  I thought Rosen was the safer, better pick.  So I’m very cautious at getting too excited about a very raw prospect.  

 

Please prove me wrong Josh!

I’m completely agree. I was watching the draft with another board member, and we were crushed when the name that came after Josh was Allen.  Maybe this time it will finally be different. 

[ngbills]

27 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

I posted this in another thread, but it underscores how the comp. % can be misleading...

 

On 3rd down and 7-9 yards (aka the money down/distance for quarterbacks) in 2017

 

Player A:  10/24  for 132 yards and a pick.  8 first downs.

Player B:  13/22 for 124 yards and a TD.  7 first downs.

Player C:  15/22 for 236 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

Player D:  16/28 for 162 yards and a TD.  10 first downs.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen....and that doesn't even factor in running.

 

Where those other guys gained tons of ground on Allen was on first and second down, where they threw 2-3x more often and all 4 completed a significantly higher number (easier throws and soft coverage).

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/player/522/1057661/passing/situational.html

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/player/811/1073959/passing/situational.html

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/player/657/1072773/passing/situational.html

http://www.cfbstats.com/2017/player/110/1070189/passing/situational.html

 

I would say looking overall at 3rd down stats - it is Bayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen. Funny that is the draft order of them. 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Loosh said:

I'm pulling for him.......Allen played at one of the worst D-I programs in the country.  If he played at one of the best D-II schools (like Wentz), hi stats would no doubt have been better and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  If Brady is QB of that Wyoming team, I truly believe his stats would not be much better.   Allen's performance in the Senior Bowl with top level talent proved to me that he can play.

 

I agree, Brady would have gotten killed behind that line. I trust that the Bills will develop him into a good QB. I’m optimistic at this point we have our franchise QB. With a worse coaching staff I would be more worried.