Rumour: Rosen and Mayfield were off the Bills' Board

[colin]

On 5/3/2018 at 11:29 AM, theRalph said:

What the Bills no doubt recognize - and what many fans, apparently, do not, is the fact that you can't evaluate College QBs with analytics unless you go far deeper into the numbers than these lame-brain draftniks that craft their careers by pushing their nonsense onto unsuspecting pinheads like Mike Schopp. As much as the likes of Schopp like to say that NFL teams don't know how to evaluate talent, the fact is scouts know a lot more about it than do the number crunching analytics-nerds we listened to for months. 

 

The Bills avoided Josh Rosen not unlike how you or I avoid touching a red stovetop. Rosen himself demonstrated the reasoning with his post-selection rant. 

But the Bills, behind closed doors, are snickering at the press on Allen. They know what they have and will unleash it on the league soon enough. 

 

Until then, here's an important safety tip: The instant any of these talent-evaluator hacks that are paraded across our airwaves make a connection between 56% and accuracy, immediately turn them off. And if anyone wishes to debate the merit of using 56% as a measure of Josh Allen's accuracy, bring it...

 

that's a motherfather fact, jack.

 

Dr Joshua Allen passed the ball what, 23 times a game?  there isn't enough data to conclude how much of the % was his accuracy, his decision making, the types of throws schemed for or attempted, and so on.

 

when he's blasting cam newton style bombs over the D, we are gonna see the back 7 play honest and back off, and that will allow for more run success.

 

one thing that made me kick myself in the face watching tyrod was the 3rd and 6 special.

 

it was a half hearted play action attempt, or read option look, followed by a roll out, tyrod avoiding pressure, and then throwing a contested pass to the TE for 4 or 5 yards.  Cap'n Allen of the USS ThunderArm will throw more picks than Tyrod (who nearly set a dang record not turning over the ball) but as long as they are deep downfield it's not a huge drop off, but i think day one on 3rd and long he will be a better threat to convert than T mobile was.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Have Beane and McDermott commented on Darnold to the Jets?

[The Now Moment]

11 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

What?

Josh Rosen has some red flag type concussion injuries.  He doesn't fit the cold weather tough QB mold that Buffalo needs.  Allen fits that a lot better.

[Ol Dirty B]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo30 said:

Josh Rosen has some red flag type concussion injuries.  He doesn't fit the cold weather tough QB mold that Buffalo needs.  Allen fits that a lot better.

 

That makes sense. I took what I read was that he has some injury red flags, especially for a cold weather team.

 

As though their is a link between cold weather and concussions. Which their could be, I don't know. Just if their was I'd like to see it.

[MrEpsYtown]

36 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Have Beane and McDermott commented on Darnold to the Jets?

Everytime he is asked questions like that he says he isn't going to go into how they ranked the players because it is unfair to the kid...something along those lines. 

[The Now Moment]

1 minute ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

That makes sense. I took what I read was that he has some injury red flags, especially for a cold weather team.

 

As though their is a link between cold weather and concussions. Which their could be, I don't know. Just if their was I'd like to see it.

It probably doesn't help.  It would seem the ground would be very hard in cold games but what do I really know.  

 

Either way, Rosen has a concerning concussion history that I believe was a bit overlooked in my opinion.  This city needed a new Jim Kelly, not some skinny !@#$.

[jrober38]

This is another strong suggestion that the Bills still rely on "old school" scouting to evaluate QBs, rather than looking at data or analytics to predict success. 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

This is another strong suggestion that the Bills still rely on "old school" scouting to evaluate QBs, rather than looking at data or analytics to predict success. 

Or maybe they were staying away from a multiple concussion player with commitment concerns.

[LLCoolCy]

While this isn't the Bill's Draft board, the NY post reported the Giants weren't taking a Quarterback but the preference was split between Darnold and Allen (Shurmur's choice) with Mayfield lightly considered. 

Makes sense that Beane would have an alignment with Gettleman player grades.

 

https://nypost.com/2018/05/03/giants-havent-been-this-satisfied-with-a-draft-in-a-long-time/

 

"Quarterback was never an option: It is not as if the Giants viewed this quarterback class as trash. They liked three of them — Baker Mayfield was not in the discussion very long — a great deal but in order to justify the No. 2 overall pick, there had to be love, of which there was none. Most troubling, and telling, was there was no true consensus among the Giants coaches, scouts and front office as to the pecking order. Some liked Sam Darnold best. Others liked Josh Allen best. Darnold, Allen. Allen, Darnold. Around and around it went, and then, a little Josh Rosen sprinkled in. What does that tell you?

The assumption that if the Giants were adamant about taking a quarterback it would have been Darnold is faulty. In fact, Pat Shurmur preferred Allen, believing he has the most upside."

 

https://nypost.com/2018/05/03/giants-havent-been-this-satisfied-with-a-draft-in-a-long-time/

 

Giants board per the author appears to be:

1. Saquon Barkley

2. Bradley Chubb

3. Allen/Darnold

4. Mayfield

5. Rosen?

Edited May 4, 2018 by LLCoolCy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

that's what I got out of it too. and I found it fairly presumptuous on gunners part....  the bills very easily could have still liked allens tape better

.... in which case the bills FO apparently has no clue and gunner again thinks the FO doomed itself with this pick. 

 

Just so's you're aware that Gunner has unusual hobbies, like watching and rewatching every freakin' game the top QB prospects play, starting the year before they come out.  He was pretty harsh on Allen in his draft analysis and I don't wholly agree. 

 

Point is, he's not your average "Biff from Tonawanda" opining off of 3 newspaper articles, 2 Youtube highlight vids and a Twitter feed.  

 

Could still be presumptuous, of course

 

My take, there are some "wtf?" things in Allen's game tape to go with the jaw-dropping highlights, and at best a grade of "incomplete" (due to OL issues) for his ability to make reads and progressions.  I think there are honest football reasons for the Bills to grade Allen higher than Rosen and I hope like hell he works out, but if the Bills FO liked Allen on tape in games >> Rosen I too would be worried. 

 

I don't think that's the case though.  I think they "got it going on"

 

7 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Everytime he is asked questions like that he says he isn't going to go into how they ranked the players because it is unfair to the kid...something along those lines. 

 

And this is why I am much happier with the FO we have than the FO we see down the lake in Cleveland.

[Stank_Nasty]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just so's you're aware that Gunner has unusual hobbies, like watching and rewatching every freakin' game the top QB prospects play, starting the year before they come out.  He was pretty harsh on Allen in his draft analysis and I don't wholly agree. 

 

Point is, he's not your average "Biff from Tonawanda" opining off of 3 newspaper articles, 2 Youtube highlight vids and a Twitter feed.  

 

Could still be presumptuous, of course

 

My take, there are some "wtf?" things in Allen's game tape to go with the jaw-dropping highlights, and at best a grade of "incomplete" (due to OL issues) for his ability to make reads and progressions.  I think there are honest football reasons for the Bills to grade Allen higher than Rosen and I hope like hell he works out, but if the Bills FO liked Allen on tape in games >> Rosen I too would be worried. 

 

I don't think that's the case though.  I think they "got it going on"

 

 

And this is why I am much happier with the FO we have than the FO we see down the lake in Cleveland.

I’m aware. I’m quite certain he’s seen way more of all of them than i have. And I’d be willing to bet he knows more about the position than I do. I don’t get paid to evaluate them nor does my job hinge upon it. Isn’t it nice when somebody can admit that? Ya see what I did there?...But it doesn’t really change the foundation of my stance against gunners basic assumptions.   

 

I mean within the last couple of hours we’ve seen another rumor of a guy like pat shurmur toying with him as the qb1 of the draft. it’s not like he knows anything about qb’s.... oh wait.... 

Edited May 5, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[YoloinOhio]

7 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Everytime he is asked questions like that he says he isn't going to go into how they ranked the players because it is unfair to the kid...something along those lines. 

That’s the right way to go about it imo. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’m aware. I’m quite certain he’s seen way more of all of them than i have. And I’d be willing to bet he knows more about the position than I do. I don’t get paid to evaluate them nor does my job hinge upon it. Isn’t it nice when somebody can admit that? Ya see what I did there?...But it doesn’t really change the foundation of my stance against gunners basic assumptions.   

 

I mean within the last couple of hours we’ve seen another rumor of a guy like pat shurmur toying with him as the qb1 of the draft. it’s not like he knows anything about qb’s.... oh wait.... 

 

Well, Pat Shurmer could have seen the same stuff I refer to as "honest football reasons", which go beyond overall game film assessment.

 

Or Gunner and I could both be wrong on two counts (once about the game tape not being what the Bills or Giants liked, and once about that being a concern).

[Stank_Nasty]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, Pat Shurmer could have seen the same stuff I refer to as "honest football reasons", which go beyond overall game film assessment.

 

Or Gunner and I could both be wrong on two counts (once about the game tape not being what the Bills or Giants liked, and once about that being a concern).

Fair enough. For me, where there is smoke there is probably fire. It seems more than a couple people had Allen graded at the top or right near the top. I’m assuming they needed to like the footage. 

 

You say it you would be concerned about the knowledge of our FO if our guys looked at the tape and thought Allen had the better of it.... I personally am way more concerned if they thought Allen’s tape wasn’t at least comparable and still took him over Rosen. 

[Sky Diver]

I was searching for last year’s UCLA vs Texas A&M game to rewatch it, and came across the 2016 game which I hadn’t seen.

 

Thoughts on Rosen’s performance here?

 

 

[Magnum Force]

I posted on another message board about 2 months ago about a caller to WGR (Howard and Jeremy) I heard on my way to work ......He said that he was in a restaurant and saw Brandon Beane there and he introduced himself to Beane.  He said he told Beane that he was real impressed with the Bills making the playoffs and the moves that the Bills had made.  He then said he asked Beane if he could tell him which Quarterback the Bills liked in the upcoming draft and that he figured he would be tight lipped about it but said that Beane answered by saying...We were hoping the kid from Wyoming would fly under the radar but it doesn't look like that is happening now. The caller sounded legit but who knows.

[Section242]

Maybe the Bills had a mid-round grade on Jackson.  It's all rumors and speculation, but I was told he was off the Bills board. That could mean they weren't taking him in the 1st and they were gonna get one of the top 4 regardless. Just my thinking but McD ran the draft last year and Whaley was on board to buy time. If Allen was the guy they wanted, I've got no problem with McBeane getting him because it's their job on the line. Also the Bills don't draft picks. If they see a guy they want they're gonna try to get him.

[Luka]

On 5/3/2018 at 9:43 AM, LabattBlue said:

If Mayfield was removed from their draft board for "off-field/character" concerns, I'd like to see the complete list, because it must be pretty long. 

 

I mean, the guy was on video running from and getting tackled by the cops...

[Wayne Arnold]

37 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

I mean, the guy was on video running from and getting tackled by the cops...

 

lol what a dumbass

 

Thank you, Browns

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Fair enough. For me, where there is smoke there is probably fire. It seems more than a couple people had Allen graded at the top or right near the top. I’m assuming they needed to like the footage.

 

Well, it's just what I think.  I recognize that the true professionals in NFL FO have access to a lot of stuff I don't, possibly including gouge on what the play call, routes and progressions actually were in each game.  I agree it seems likely that several FOs had Allen ranked high on their board.  I don't think that means they need to "like the footage".  For example, Beane keeps talking about Allen's arm strength, athleticism, and personality.  He never talks about his ability to see the field and make progressions or his ability to throw with anticipation or his throwing mechanics.  Sometimes if you listen for what people don't say, it tells you more than what they do say.

 

11 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

 You say it you would be concerned about the knowledge of our FO if our guys looked at the tape and thought Allen had the better of it.... I personally am way more concerned if they thought Allen’s tape wasn’t at least comparable and still took him over Rosen. 

 

That last sentence is where I started.  I was concerned that they had made their draft choice for non-football reasons.  Then I thought it through some more and decided they probably made their choice for football reasons, or at least there are real football reasons supporting the choice.  Allen shows stunning flashes on those films.  If they had knowledge of the play calls and routes, they may have been able to determine that many of the "WTF?" throws were QB/receiver miscommunication (both need to read and react to the defense the same way).  Maybe they could tell that the "WTF?" throws on film have a subtle mechanical basis they think they can fix, and that he was showing a good learning curve with his footwork and mechanics responding to NFL-level QB coaching through the spring.

 

Just for comparison here I'm going to link in Buffalo716 report on the two, it pretty much captures some of what folks see on film which would make us say "if they looked at the film and said Allen > Rosen, it's a problem.  I'm using 716 because his film room is based on watching every game and taking notes, and he does scout (though not for QB I think).