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The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen


Magox

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3 minutes ago, bills11 said:

While I can agree with most of your on the field analysis ..your leadership point is not really accurate ..there's different kinds of leaders ..Aaron Rodgers is very smug/ arrogant former teammates have called him out yet his winning speaks for itself.  Jameis Winston is ur prototypical rah rah leader of men..that hasn't translated to wins 

 

That characterization is not something that I created, it's something that is out there in NFL evaluator circles.  I'm not sure there is a correlations between his smug attitude and being a leader of men and who knows?  Maybe it is a bogus charge but it is a risk.

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The character issues that have been referenced regarding Rosen have been on full display over the past couple days.

 

He just continues to keep putting his foot in his mouth.  He definitely is not a leader of men from what I can see.

 

Plus has anyone seen how scrawny and frail he looks, those shoulders are kinda girly.  He's going to get thrown around like a rag doll.

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  • 2 months later...
On 4/27/2018 at 9:20 AM, Shotgunner said:

OP is a reasoned, coherent argument.

 

He's not who I would have drafted either, but I don't have that "Maybin" feeling about this one. 

 

I'm pretty optimistic for a couple reasons 1. We finally can identify our problems, and are proactive in finding replacements. They are not going to settle for mediocrity (whether Allen embodies it or succeeds). 2. Beane picked his guy, and was willing to move around the board to get him. Like Allen or not, Beane put his balls on the table, swung for the fences, and got his guy.

Haha balls on the table- now that right there is funny!!!!

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I think it's interesting that this thread got resurrected.  As I examine my own thinking on July 2, this thread demonstrates how pointless all those pre-draft discussions about qbs were.  

 

I mean, if you're a gm, you're asking those questions daily before the draft, but the questions are now completely irrelevant. If you're an owner, those questions next become relevant a year or two from now as you evaluate your gm's performance. 

 

But now it's July, training camp will start soon, and all this analysis just doesn't matter now.  The Bills have a roster, they're going to camp and they'll put together the best team they can.  I will watch and cheer and worry, and we will see what happens.  

 

Will I be taking a look to see how Darnold and Mayfield and Rosen are doing?  Sure, especially Darnold because he's in the division.  But for me, the question is how good is my team, not how good is some player that some other team got.

 

After Mayfield and Darnold went off the board I wanted Rosen.  Then when the Bills traded up and we're on the clock, literally seconds before thir pick was announced, I changed my mind.  I wanted the better athlete with the better attitude.  NFL-ready is a bogus concept when you're looking for a ten-year player

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Obviously, projecting the futures of NFL prospects involves a lot of guesswork.  One can talk in terms of probabilities, but as soon as you venture into the realm of certainties you're on thin ice.  I'm not suggesting the OP did that.  I just think it would be wise for everybody to keep that in mind.  I get the comparison a few have made of Josh Allen to EJ Manuel.  Both are big guys with big arms and big hands, and project a positive public persona.  They are certainly not the same QB, though.  Josh Allen is even bigger than Manuel, is much more athletic and has a stronger arm. Manuel's biggest issue IMO was his reluctance to anticipate.  He had to see the open receiver before he would pull the trigger.  The problem in the NFL is that much of the time DBs are so good and windows of openness are so fleeting that if you see a receiver is open for the QB to see it, nine times out of ten that window is going to close by the time the QB can pull the trigger and the ball has to travel 30 yards through the air.  Allen has complete trust in his ability to put the ball in tight windows.  When his footwork is right he can do it too.  While he isn't the anticipation thrower that some are, he can do it, and there are plenty of examples where he has.

 

On the other hand, while some players have earned the "injury prone" label, football being the violent sport it is, nobody can guarantee the durability of any player.  I like to think that Josh Allen is a big, strong robust QB, but he could easily be involved in a freak play and suffer a devastating injury, or slip on a rubber mat at the practice facility.  The odds may favor him being more durable than Rosen, but odds are not guarantees.

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21 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Obviously, projecting the futures of NFL prospects involves a lot of guesswork.  One can talk in terms of probabilities, but as soon as you venture into the realm of certainties you're on thin ice.  I'm not suggesting the OP did that.  I just think it would be wise for everybody to keep that in mind.  I get the comparison a few have made of Josh Allen to EJ Manuel.  Both are big guys with big arms and big hands, and project a positive public persona.  They are certainly not the same QB, though.  Josh Allen is even bigger than Manuel, is much more athletic and has a stronger arm. Manuel's biggest issue IMO was his reluctance to anticipate.  He had to see the open receiver before he would pull the trigger.  The problem in the NFL is that much of the time DBs are so good and windows of openness are so fleeting that if you see a receiver is open for the QB to see it, nine times out of ten that window is going to close by the time the QB can pull the trigger and the ball has to travel 30 yards through the air.  Allen has complete trust in his ability to put the ball in tight windows.  When his footwork is right he can do it too.  While he isn't the anticipation thrower that some are, he can do it, and there are plenty of examples where he has.

 

On the other hand, while some players have earned the "injury prone" label, football being the violent sport it is, nobody can guarantee the durability of any player.  I like to think that Josh Allen is a big, strong robust QB, but he could easily be involved in a freak play and suffer a devastating injury, or slip on a rubber mat at the practice facility.  The odds may favor him being more durable than Rosen, but odds are not guarantees.

Two big differences between Manuel and Allen:

 

Wonderlic score - 28 vs  37

Head coach - McDermott prepares his players to succeed.  

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I wanted no part of Rosen or Allen.

 

Since I’ve seen Rosen more, seen him play live a bunch of times and heard more stories about him I wasn’t ever a fan of drafting him.

 

As far as Allen goes, I admittedly was one of the biggest table pounders for NOT drafting him. But that was based off of stats, YouTube highlight videos and a handful of games watched. If that.

 

I have never wanted to be more wrong about a player than Josh Allen. And as someone who’s been wrong maybe 5 times in his life, this is something. 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I wanted no part of Rosen or Allen.

 

Since I’ve seen Rosen more, seen him play live a bunch of times and heard more stories about him I wasn’t ever a fan of drafting him.

 

As far as Allen goes, I admittedly was one of the biggest table pounders for NOT drafting him. But that was based off of stats, YouTube highlight videos and a handful of games watched. If that.

 

I have never wanted to be more wrong about a player than Josh Allen. And as someone who’s been wrong maybe 5 times in his life, this is something. 

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Sky Diver
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Can we just let them play and then make determinations?

 

So what if Josh Allen is a leader of men if he’s also the leader of interceptions. 

 

So what if Josh Rosen is a douchebag if he wins. 

 

The die is cast. 

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7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I can hear Doc Holiday now.  One of the great American philosophers. 

 

Doc coulda rocked that line. However, it was said by a much more famous person after he and one legion crossed the Rubicon. 

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On 4/28/2018 at 7:31 AM, Magox said:

The character issues that have been referenced regarding Rosen have been on full display over the past couple days.

 

He just continues to keep putting his foot in his mouth.  He definitely is not a leader of men from what I can see.

 

Plus has anyone seen how scrawny and frail he looks, those shoulders are kinda girly.  He's going to get thrown around like a rag doll.

 

 

Huh? Have I missed something? I just googled and nothing came up on the first page to indicate any issues with Rosen in AZ...

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I mean I'm aware Rosen has his shortcomings. But to play devil's advocate his shortcomings have nothing to do with him throwing the football, whereas all Allen's shortcomings come from that. So I wanted Rosen. I don't particularly care too much we went Allen because I don't know jack in predicting QB success in the draft.

 

It seems a pointless effort to spend so much time consuming research on finding out the quarterback you want after all these 6 1st round grade QBs coming out and enraging yourself when we don't get the guy.

 

Go Allen!

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On 4/27/2018 at 9:07 AM, Magox said:

I want to preface these series of thoughts with the fact that I was hoping for Rosen over Allen.  With that said one of the common gripes that I am hearing from some of our fans on this board is that Josh Allen is the bigger risk for this franchise than Rosen.   The argument goes something along the lines that Rosen is the best pure passer, the most NFL ready therefore he's close to a sure thing.  Whereas Allen is the big armed QB who is inaccurate similar to EJ Manuel and he's got Bust written all over him.

 

On the surface this argument makes sense.

 

However, there are huge gaping holes with this argument.

 

A) One of the big things that people talked about including lots of whispers from NFL personnel is that Rosen was not a leader of men.  Some questioned his demeanor and whether or not his heart was fully in the game.  I don't know whether or not that stuff is true or not but it was definitely out there.  I will say this, the little that I observed of him I definitely saw a smugness about him.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  But it was certainly palpable and if I saw that after a few interviews then I'm certain that this reputation was observed by many others as well.   The fact that his ex coach Mora could not give him a full-throated endorsement and even picked his in-state rival as being the QB who should be picked first to me screams of a red flag.  Sure, Mora tried backtracking some and equivocating why he said that, but the bottom line is that he didn't feel the urge to gush about the player he coached.   

 

B) His injury concerns.  Will he be a Bradford sort of player?   I think that is a fair question.  He's had a couple concussions and I believe a shoulder injury that kept him out for some time.  He's not the most mobile QB, tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes because he's a QB that likes to try to make plays but if you are in the NFL and you don't have great protection and you hold on to the ball too long and you are prone to some injuries, it's stands to reason to believe he could be an injury prone QB in this league.   That is a risk.

 

Allen on the other hand is a big hulking QB that can not only shake off arm tackles but he's very mobile and makes amazing throws on the run.  Considering the offensive line we have, this is probably a better fit than Rosen is essentially just a pocket passer.

 

While Allen has his shortcomings primarily in the accuracy department, it is an overblown charge that people make and it is without doubt in many cases an on-the-surface observation primarily to the famed 56% completion rate.   There certainly is some there there.  But a few things you have to keep in mind.  

 

A) This was a down-the-field sort of throwing offense which is more susceptible to producing higher incompletion rates

B)  His offensive line was very weak and he was constantly under duress. 

C) His WR's were very poor and they weren't able to get a lot of separation.

 

His intermediate and long range passing is really good, where he struggles are his short passes.  That is something that will have to be worked on and to me that is more a matter of setting his feet/mechanics and from what I've been reading it is something that he has worked on and improved, as evidenced in the Senior bowl game.  He was the best performing QB that attended this year.

 

The guy is also an anticipation thrower that can hit receivers in small windows.  He's also a very intelligent guy and hard worker and a leader or men.   Where he needs some work on the mental aspect are his progressions which of course is a very important element.  To me, this is his biggest risk into becoming a franchise QB.

 

While they both have their risks, it is a fallacy from my point of view to believe that Allen is the bigger risk considering that Rosen may have troubles leading his teammates and his injury risks.  

 

There is a reason why not only was the whisper campaign in NFL evaluator/GM circles in full effect to "stay away" from Rosen and the fact that teams in need of QB's early on decided to forgo him, not to mention that most mocks had Allen being selected over Rosen.  It's not because he doesn't have the talent, it's because of these other concerns.

 

Rosen could very well end up being the better QB, but the risks are there and they are reasonably undeniable.    Again, this is not so much an argument of who is going to be the better QB it's to address the fallacy that Allen is the bigger risk.

But with a tag line of, "Aim small, miss small" wowing everyone how could Rosen possibly be a bust?  Darn I wish he was ours...(sarcasm)

 

Go Allen! 

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On 4/28/2018 at 6:31 AM, Magox said:

The character issues that have been referenced regarding Rosen have been on full display over the past couple days.

 

He just continues to keep putting his foot in his mouth.  He definitely is not a leader of men from what I can see.

 

Plus has anyone seen how scrawny and frail he looks, those shoulders are kinda girly.  He's going to get thrown around like a rag doll.

Welp, you started off okay, started quipping with disagreements, and lowered yourself to this point. "those shoulders are kinda girly".. good analysis. Really good insight to why a slight frame makes Allen the way to go lol. Take a look around the NFL, always been aging quarterbacks that play successfully, that are smart to release before "getting thrown around like a rag doll." Brady could be the most injury prone player the last few years if he wasn't the master of the borderline intentional grounding, referee complaining, and folding like lawn chair before he gets any serious contact.

 

Rosen has a high football IQ. This isn't Peterman waiting until the last second for Bosa to nail him before throwing while being hit. I'm not going to take stock in college concussions. Every quarterback gets concussions, minor or major, throughout a season. Is it Rosen's fault he plays for a conservative Athletic Director in college and accurately reports his concussions rather than jeopardizing his future/NFL career for a UCLA team not going anywhere? I'm perfectly fine with players going out for concussions. It doesn't indicate the seriousness of a concussion, some players are simply aware they got their bell rung, have safety in their starting positions, and don't want to get repeated concussions in a short period of time (the real deal breaker). Then there's players that play all game, getting minor concussions, and don't go out with it until they get knocked cold. Maybe it's me, but I'm fine with a player leaving voluntarily for concussion protocol.

 

Being out for a concussion has nothing to do with the severity of the concussion.

47 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Huh? Have I missed something? I just googled and nothing came up on the first page to indicate any issues with Rosen in AZ...

 I can't believe he said that. And see my post 2 posts above. Just because we didn't get Rosen doesn't mean we need to take dumb personal shots at him that aren't true. Good god, just root for Josh Allen.

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I just thought Rosen was a lower ceiling, injury risk who can come in and play well right away barring those injuries.

 

Allen has a much higher ceiling but more concerns with Accuracy, mechanics, and competition who may not be ready right away.

 

I thought both were great prospects.  I'm happy with Allen but admit I would have liked Rosen better.  I live in Phoenix so I get to root for him here now, worked out.  

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1 hour ago, The_Dude said:

 

Doc coulda rocked that line. However, it was said by a much more famous person after he and one legion crossed the Rubicon. 

Sorry.  I may be old enough to remember Doc but not the other dude.  

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry.  I may be old enough to remember Doc but not the other dude.  

 

If you’re ever board, watch this, 

 

 

hands down the greatest general of all time. He had some cool one liners too! “Veni. Vidi. Vici.”

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The problem with Rosen is injuries will eventually take him out of the league. I've seen every collegiate snap hes made and if he could stay healthy he would be the prize. I like the fact that Allen seems big, strong, durable and mobile. But obviously his NFL success will rely on accuracy and anticipation. 

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