Which Bills GM's Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent?

[BuffaloRush]

The 2017 NFL Draft is one week away and it's a huge one for us Bills fans.  If you listen to many of the draft pundits evaluating talent, many times you will hear about draft picks becoming "Pro Bowl talent."  Well I researched which Bills GM's were the most successful at drafting Pro Bowl talent and how they compare to GM's from around the league as well. 

 

Unlike Hits and Misses, I did not discriminate between whether a player made the Pro Bowl on the Bills or with another team.  I also removed any subjectivity about the selection.  I also added the number of drafts that the GM's took part in.  You'll see that drafting Pro Bowl is a lot like a baseball players batting average.  It's much easier to hit .500 with 10 at bats, than it is with 100 etc.   What you find below may surprise you.  The names that you associate failure and success with in terms of drafting, may just surprise you. 

 

Of course, drafting Pro Bowl players is not the only means of success for a GM or a franchise.  But again, what someone defines as a "good" or "bad" pick is very subjective.  It is very hard to disagree that a player that was selected and made the Pro Bowl was a "bad" pick.

 

Anyway here's the Bills list:

 

General Manager	Years as GM	# of Drafts	# of Pro Bowl Players Drafted	Total Draft Picks	Rate of Success
Marv Levy	2006-2007	2	4	16	25%
Tom Donahue	2001-2005	6	5	36	13.9%
Russ Brandon	2008-2009	2	2	18	11.1%
Bill Polian	1986-1991	6	6	72	8.3%
John Butler	1992-2000	9	5	81	6.2%
Buddy Nix	2010-2013	4	2	35	5.7%
Doug Whaley	2014-2016	3	0	20	0.0%

 

Where else would you rather be, than #1 on this list!?!?!?!

 

 

Now let's see how these numbers compare to the top GM's in the league:

General Manager	Team	Years as GM	# of Drafts	# of Pro Bowl Players Drafted	Total Draft Picks	Rate of Success
Bill Belichick	New England	2000-2017	18	17	150	11.3%
Ozzie Newsome	Baltimore	2002-2017	16	15	137	10.9%
Thomas Dimitroff	Atlanta	2008-2017	10	7	74	9.5%
Kevin Colbert	Pittsburgh	2010-2017	8	6	67	8.9%
Howie Roseman	Philadelphia	2010-2014, 2016	6	5	56	8.9%
David Caldwell	Jacksonville	2013-2017	5	3	39	7.7%

 

 

So what are some of the overall takeaways here:

 

1. it's really hard to consistently draft Pro Bowl players in the draft.

2. The draft is a crapshoot.  You are going to miss quite often, so like baseball it's best to get as many swings as possible.

3. The really good General Managers are usually only to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 10 picks.

4. The really bad GM's are only able to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 25 picks (or worse)

5. Despite all of the misses from Bill Belichick, he has done a relatively good job of selecting talent over the past two decades.  Ditto for Ozzie Newsome.  

 

Now the takeaways for the Bills GM's:

1. Surprisingly Tom Modrak (under Marv and Russ) did a fairly decent job of drafting talent (6/32 for 19%).  Though several of his picks made the Pro Bowls on other teams.

2. Tom Donahoe also did a decent job of drafting ands had several strong drafts.

3. Bill Polian did miss quite a bit (as stated on Hits and Misses) but is only 1 of 2 GM's on the list to draft All-Pro talent (Henry Jones and Thurman).  Buddy Nix was the other (Marcell Dareus)

4. John Butler made selections that developed into good players but only a handful were named to the Pro-Bowl

5. Doug Whaley and Buddy Nix were not very good in the draft.  Buddy's only two Pro Bowl players were Gilmore and Dareus, whereas Sammy Watkins or Ron Darby were probably the closest he every got to drafting a Pro Bowl player.  Of course, his last draft in 2016 (sorry not counting 2017 as "his" draft) was only a few years ago, so we'll have to wait a few more seasons.  

 

The question now is how will Brandon Beane rank on this list.  I am hoping to see some more Pro Bowl players from his tenure as GM in the future.  Let's hope het get the chance to take over 100 swings like Belichick or Ozzie, because that will mean he's doing something right!

 

Let's hear some of your takeaways!

 

[QuoteTheRaven83]

Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest.

 

This means nothing

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest.

 

This means nothing

 

Many would disagree with you

[QuoteTheRaven83]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

 

Many would disagree with you

 

Many would agree with me

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

Many would agree with me

Let's see who's right....

[QuoteTheRaven83]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

Let's see who's right....

 

Does it matter who's right? How many of these "Pro Bowlers" made a direct impact? LOL

 

This means nothing. ABSOLUTELY nothing.

 

Let's look at our "PRO BOWLERS" from this list from 2000 til now.

 

Reuben Brown, Sam Gash, Sam Cowart, Ted Washington, Eric Moulds, Larry Centers, Takeo Spikes, Travis Henry, Terrence McGee, Sam Adams, Brian Moorman, Mike Schneck, Aaron Schobel, Nate Clements, Jason Peters, Marshawn Lynch, Jairus Byrd, Kyle Williams, CJ Spiller, Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Tyrod Taylor, Eric Wood, Richie, McCoy...

 

How many of these guys have the Bills drafted from 2000 til now? Clements, Schobel, Travis Henry, Kyle Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd, CJ Spiller, Marcell Dareus. I'm not even counting alternates because that just further proves my point that Pro Bowl means nothing. Out of this list of players we've drafted  since 2000, how many players made a difference for us? Kyle Williams and...

 

And before you start crying about me not including anyone from the Polian era, I'm only counting 2000-NOW because according to this BS stat you gave us, 2001-2009 included our highest percentile. 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod.  That’s 4 more pro bowl players.  

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod.  That’s 4 more pro bowl players.  

 

 That’s why I titled the thread “Which Bills GM Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent.”  Not “let’s defend Doug Whaley.”  

 

By the way @quotetheraven83 it sure seems like this dude things the Pro Bowl designation means something 

[QuoteTheRaven83]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod.  That’s 4 more pro bowl players.  

 

Drafting is different from signing. Hughes, Shady, Tyrod and Mario don't count in this list since they weren't drafted. This counts DRAFTED. Reading is fundamental.

 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

 That’s why I titled the thread “Which Bills GM Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent.”  Not “let’s defend Doug Whaley.”  

 

By the way @quotetheraven83 it sure seems like this dude things the Pro Bowl designation means something 

 

It does mean nothing. If it meant a whole lot, why did we trade our Pro Bowl QB to to the Browns?

Edited April 20, 2018 by QuoteTheRaven83

[BuffaloRush]

2 minutes ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

Drafting is different from signing. 

 

It does mean nothing. If it meant a whole lot, why did we trade our Pro Bowl QB to to the Browns?

 

Because he was an alternate.

[QuoteTheRaven83]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

 

Because he was an alternate.

 

Exactly my point. Thanks for proving my point that the Pro Bowl means nothing. 

[DrDawkinstein]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Many would disagree with you

 

same ol song and dance, eh?

 

I agree with him.

[Mango]

Let’s just take this all as correct.

 

What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? 

 

Not sure what the end game is here. 

[BuffaloRush]

20 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

same ol song and dance, eh?

 

I agree with him.

 

You’re big on complaining

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Let’s just take this all as correct.

 

What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? 

 

Not sure what the end game is here. 

 

I write.  You complain.  That’s your endgame

[QuoteTheRaven83]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Let’s just take this all as correct.

 

What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? 

 

Not sure what the end game is here. 

 

My point is this...

 

If these GM's had a higher percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players than Belichick, and he's got more rings, what's the point of these numbers?

 

Show me the rings, not meaningless Pro Bowls.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

You’re big on complaining

 

I write.  You complain.  That’s your endgame

 

Huh?

 

There were no complaints. Data should tell a story. I was asking what the next step was in putting together the Bills history with GM’s

Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

 

My point is this...

 

If these GM's had a higher percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players than Belichick, and he's got more rings, what's the point of these numbers?

 

Show me the rings, not meaningless Pro Bowls.

 

Sorry. That was directed at the OP

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

Huh?

 

There were no complaints. Data should tell a story. I was asking what the next step was in putting together the Bills history with GM’s

 

Ok the sense I got the sense that you were taking a shot at me.  And yes the data is correct

Edited April 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[QuoteTheRaven83]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Let's see who's right....

 

OK, so far that's 2 for me. None for you.

 

LOL

[Mango]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Ok the sense I got the sense that you were taking a shot at me.  And yes the data is correct

 

Gah. I meant, I’m not going to dive into nuts and bolts of it. Not to question it. It’s pretty binary. There’s nothing to question.

 

When you break it down this way, what does it say about the Bills past. 

 

Hence the what’s the end game question. ??‍♂️

[Gugny]

How about determining who drafted the most players who are still on NFL rosters 5 years after being drafted?  The Pro Bowl is a joke.

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, Gugny said:

How about determining who drafted the most players who are still on NFL rosters 5 years after being drafted?  The Pro Bowl is a joke.

 

Being named to the 1st or 2nd Team Pro Biwl is not a joke.  Pro Bowl alternates can be.   The Pro Bow game itself is a joke.  

 

If the designation is such a joke, then why are Pro Bowl appearnces counted?  Why are players getting bonus and contract extensions for making the Pro Bowl?  It’s still considered an honor in the NFL

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

How about determining who drafted the most players who are still on NFL rosters 5 years after being drafted?  The Pro Bowl is a joke.

 

Because that a hollow stat that really doesn’t mean anything.  How long was Todd Collins in the NFL as a 3rd string QB?  That’s hardly an indicator of a successful draft pick.  

 

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Being named to the 1st or 2nd Team Pro Biwl is not a joke.  Pro Bowl alternates can be.   The Pro Bow game itself is a joke.  

 

If the designation is such a joke, then why are Pro Bowl appearnces counted?  Why are players getting bonus and contract extensions for making the Pro Bowl?  It’s still considered an honor in the NFL

 

Because that a hollow stat that really doesn’t mean anything.  How long was Todd Collins in the NFL as a 3rd string QB?  That’s hardly an indicator of a successful draft pick.  

 

 

Because it's popularity and popularity sells tickets and merchandise.

 

It's only an honor because it lines everyone's pockets.  It has VERY little to do with actual talent.

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

Because it's popularity and popularity sells tickets and merchandise.

 

It's only an honor because it lines everyone's pockets.  It has VERY little to do with actual talent.

 

And staying in the league as a 3rd string prospect after 5 years does?  That makes no sense

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Because that a hollow stat that really doesn’t mean anything.  How long was Todd Collins in the NFL as a 3rd string QB?  That’s hardly an indicator of a successful draft pick.  

 

 

So you consider Bob Griffin or Tim "Pro Life" Tebow good draft picks because they were starters?  Or Vince Young???

 

Longevity defines the quality of the pick.  EJ Manuel was a better pick than Bob Griffin or Tim Tebow because he's never been unemployed since he was drafted.

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Being named to the 1st or 2nd Team Pro Biwl is not a joke.  Pro Bowl alternates can be.   The Pro Bow game itself is a joke.  

 

If the designation is such a joke, then why are Pro Bowl appearnces counted?  Why are players getting bonus and contract extensions for making the Pro Bowl?  It’s still considered an honor in the NFL

 

Because that a hollow stat that really doesn’t mean anything.  How long was Todd Collins in the NFL as a 3rd string QB?  That’s hardly an indicator of a successful draft pick.  

 

 

There is probably something to the idea of averaging career length out among draft picks. Then trades count as years with team. 

 

So for the current regime Beane would get 0 or -1 for Darby but +2 for Benjamin. 

 

Not a terrible idea for weighing transactions as a whole for GM’s. 

[BuffaloRush]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

So you consider Bob Griffin or Tim "Pro Life" Tebow good draft picks because they were starters?  Or Vince Young???

 

Longevity defines the quality of the pick.  EJ Manuel was a better pick than Bob Griffin or Tim Tebow because he's never been unemployed since he was drafted.

 

Longevity on its own does not define success.  There’s many examples of players who have hung around in the league as backups.   It doesn’t make them good picks.  If your first round OT end up as a

career backup for 7 seasons how does

that it make it a successful pick?  

 

But again it goes back to it being impossible to define what constitutes a “successful” draft pick.

Edited April 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

And staying in the league as a 3rd string prospect after 5 years does?  That makes no sense

 

 

If Dak Prescott were to be done after this year's preseason, who would have had the more successful career .... Dak?  Or Alex Van Pelt?

 

[BuffaloRush]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

There is probably something to the idea of averaging career length out among draft picks. Then trades count as years with team. 

 

So for the current regime Beane would get 0 or -1 for Darby but +2 for Benjamin. 

 

Not a terrible idea for weighing transactions as a whole for GM’s. 

 

So by definition EJ Manual is a good draft pick as a first round pick?  No, I can’t get behind that 

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

 

If Dak Prescott were to be done after this year's preseason, who would have had the more successful career .... Dak?  Or Alex Van Pelt?

 

 

Prescott

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

So by definition EJ Manual is a good draft pick as a first round pick?  No, I can’t get behind that 

 

Prescott

 

It’s a bit of an anomoly, but for the purposes of trying to provide “data” or quantifying things, it would average out. 

 

The EJ pick specifically. The Bills traded down, got Kiko, and got maybe the 2nd best QB in the draft. Breaking it down that way, I don’t hate it. Bummer he wasn’t good enough, but it wasn’t the worst thing to ever happen. 

[Gugny]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

So by definition EJ Manual is a good draft pick as a first round pick?  No, I can’t get behind that 

 

Prescott

 

EJ has remained gainfully employed as an NFL QB for going on 6 years.

 

And Van Pelt was an NFL QB for 9 years, while Griffin crapped out after 4.

 

No one even wanted Griffin as a backup last year.

 

So yes .... EJ was a better pick.  Does that mean he was a good 1st rounder?  NO.  But he was a better first rounder than Bob Griffin.

[BuffaloRush]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

It’s a bit of an anomoly, but for the purposes of trying to provide “data” or quantifying things, it would average out. 

 

The EJ pick specifically. The Bills traded down, got Kiko, and got maybe the 2nd best QB in the draft. Breaking it down that way, I don’t hate it. Bummer he wasn’t good enough, but it wasn’t the worst thing to ever happen. 

 

So you are arguing bag drafting EJ Manuel as a 1st round draft pick was a good selection?  Come on man.  He was ranked as a prospect in the 3rd or 4th round.   In my opinion, that’s not how you evaluate the success of a selection 

2 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

EJ has remained gainfully employed as an NFL QB for going on 6 years.

 

And Van Pelt was an NFL QB for 9 years, while Griffin crapped out after 4.

 

No one even wanted Griffin as a backup last year.

 

So yes .... EJ was a better pick.  Does that mean he was a good 1st rounder?  NO.  But he was a better first rounder than Bob Griffin.

 

Sorry but in my opinion, your “longetivity” argument is irrelevant.  I guess that Steve DeBerg is a Hall of Fame QB in your book.  On his HOF it will read “gainfully employed for 21 seasons.”

 

In certain situations your longetivity argument can be a good indicator, but there’s far too much context within the years played in the league.   To say that a player who plays 5+ years in the NFL alone should be considered a success is laughable.  I don’t  agree that. a QB drafted in mid-first round is successful if they are a career backup.  

 

What you did highlight is why it is so hard to “hit” in the NFL draft on players.  Injuries, scheme, and a number of different contribute to how successful players are in the NFL.  

 

 

[Augie]

31 minutes ago, Gugny said:

How about determining who drafted the most players who are still on NFL rosters 5 years after being drafted?  The Pro Bowl is a joke.

 

Yep, there are multiple ways of measuring “success”, and the more data you look at, the clearer the picture becomes. 

[first_and_ten]

This rating system is flawed. A good GM is not determined by the amount of pro bowl players that are drafted. It's the quality of the team he has assembled. Pro bowlers are important , yes, but great teams are built on players who have been acquired also by trade and other means. 

[Gugny]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

So you are arguing bag drafting EJ Manuel as a 1st round draft pick was a good selection?  Come on man.  He was ranked as a prospect in the 3rd or 4th round.   In my opinion, that’s not how you evaluate the success of a selection 

 

 

 

 

Is this really how you interpreted what I wrote?  Really?

[first_and_ten]

9 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Is this really how you interpreted what I wrote?  Really?

 

Who's Bob Griffin?

[metzelaars_lives]

2 hours ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said:

Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest.

 

This means nothing

That's easy to say (and so cliche at this point) but it's as good a barometer as any.  If a guy's good, he's gonna find a way to a Pro Bowl.

55 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

EJ has remained gainfully employed as an NFL QB for going on 6 years.

 

And Van Pelt was an NFL QB for 9 years, while Griffin crapped out after 4.

 

No one even wanted Griffin as a backup last year.

 

So yes .... EJ was a better pick.  Does that mean he was a good 1st rounder?  NO.  But he was a better first rounder than Bob Griffin.

It's been so long, I can't even remember if you were pro or anti-EJ that summer of 2015 when a dozen or so of us spent way too much time on here arguing about the guy.  I think you were with me on the anti-EJ train but then we became opponents as I was pro-Taylor and you were anti-Taylor.  Do I have that right?

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

Let's see who's right....

Based on your history of not knowing what a hit or miss is, I bet you’re not the one who’s right.

[Mango]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

So you are arguing bag drafting EJ Manuel as a 1st round draft pick was a good selection?  Come on man.  He was ranked as a prospect in the 3rd or 4th round.   In my opinion, that’s not how you evaluate the success of a selection 

 

I didn't say that even a little, Jesus. 

 

I think that over the course of a GM's history, in regards to the proposed, it would average out over picks, trades, and FA. 

 

In regards to EJ specifically. Again I didn't say that. Ugh. Should we have gone with a different position in hindsight, absolutely. My point is, as of 2018, EJ is probably either the best or second best QB in the class currently. The team traded down, got an extra pick, and got one of the best QB's/most important positions in football, that the draft had to offer. EJ was not good, but if any FO does that regularly, they will win more than they lose. You are taking what I said way too far. 

 

It is trash like this that makes your threads the worst. I tried to engage reasonably with this one too, and ask what the data meant, and that was your response. FML

[MJS]

The pro bowl certainly is a popularity contest.

 

Which players are popular? Oh right, the most talented ones. The ones who put up the numbers. The ones who have good seasons and people follow because they are impressed with them.

 

Do they get it wrong sometimes? Sure. But MOST of the time the guys who make the pro bowl (not alternates) had great seasons and deserve to be there.

[ALF]

Thanks for your research , interesting. HOF players are not a popularity contest, they are the real deal.

 

How a team plays together like the SB years Bills with good coaching is very important. A good QB makes others look better.