BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 The 2017 NFL Draft is one week away and it's a huge one for us Bills fans. If you listen to many of the draft pundits evaluating talent, many times you will hear about draft picks becoming "Pro Bowl talent." Well I researched which Bills GM's were the most successful at drafting Pro Bowl talent and how they compare to GM's from around the league as well. Unlike Hits and Misses, I did not discriminate between whether a player made the Pro Bowl on the Bills or with another team. I also removed any subjectivity about the selection. I also added the number of drafts that the GM's took part in. You'll see that drafting Pro Bowl is a lot like a baseball players batting average. It's much easier to hit .500 with 10 at bats, than it is with 100 etc. What you find below may surprise you. The names that you associate failure and success with in terms of drafting, may just surprise you. Of course, drafting Pro Bowl players is not the only means of success for a GM or a franchise. But again, what someone defines as a "good" or "bad" pick is very subjective. It is very hard to disagree that a player that was selected and made the Pro Bowl was a "bad" pick. Anyway here's the Bills list: General Manager Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Marv Levy 2006-2007 2 4 16 25% Tom Donahue 2001-2005 6 5 36 13.9% Russ Brandon 2008-2009 2 2 18 11.1% Bill Polian 1986-1991 6 6 72 8.3% John Butler 1992-2000 9 5 81 6.2% Buddy Nix 2010-2013 4 2 35 5.7% Doug Whaley 2014-2016 3 0 20 0.0% Where else would you rather be, than #1 on this list!?!?!?! Now let's see how these numbers compare to the top GM's in the league: General Manager Team Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Bill Belichick New England 2000-2017 18 17 150 11.3% Ozzie Newsome Baltimore 2002-2017 16 15 137 10.9% Thomas Dimitroff Atlanta 2008-2017 10 7 74 9.5% Kevin Colbert Pittsburgh 2010-2017 8 6 67 8.9% Howie Roseman Philadelphia 2010-2014, 2016 6 5 56 8.9% David Caldwell Jacksonville 2013-2017 5 3 39 7.7% So what are some of the overall takeaways here: 1. it's really hard to consistently draft Pro Bowl players in the draft. 2. The draft is a crapshoot. You are going to miss quite often, so like baseball it's best to get as many swings as possible. 3. The really good General Managers are usually only to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 10 picks. 4. The really bad GM's are only able to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 25 picks (or worse) 5. Despite all of the misses from Bill Belichick, he has done a relatively good job of selecting talent over the past two decades. Ditto for Ozzie Newsome. Now the takeaways for the Bills GM's: 1. Surprisingly Tom Modrak (under Marv and Russ) did a fairly decent job of drafting talent (6/32 for 19%). Though several of his picks made the Pro Bowls on other teams. 2. Tom Donahoe also did a decent job of drafting ands had several strong drafts. 3. Bill Polian did miss quite a bit (as stated on Hits and Misses) but is only 1 of 2 GM's on the list to draft All-Pro talent (Henry Jones and Thurman). Buddy Nix was the other (Marcell Dareus) 4. John Butler made selections that developed into good players but only a handful were named to the Pro-Bowl 5. Doug Whaley and Buddy Nix were not very good in the draft. Buddy's only two Pro Bowl players were Gilmore and Dareus, whereas Sammy Watkins or Ron Darby were probably the closest he every got to drafting a Pro Bowl player. Of course, his last draft in 2016 (sorry not counting 2017 as "his" draft) was only a few years ago, so we'll have to wait a few more seasons. The question now is how will Brandon Beane rank on this list. I am hoping to see some more Pro Bowl players from his tenure as GM in the future. Let's hope het get the chance to take over 100 swings like Belichick or Ozzie, because that will mean he's doing something right! Let's hear some of your takeaways! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest. This means nothing 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said: Pro Bowl is nothing more than a popularity contest. This means nothing Many would disagree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: Many would disagree with you Many would agree with me 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said: Many would agree with me Let's see who's right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said: Let's see who's right.... Does it matter who's right? How many of these "Pro Bowlers" made a direct impact? LOL This means nothing. ABSOLUTELY nothing. Let's look at our "PRO BOWLERS" from this list from 2000 til now. Reuben Brown, Sam Gash, Sam Cowart, Ted Washington, Eric Moulds, Larry Centers, Takeo Spikes, Travis Henry, Terrence McGee, Sam Adams, Brian Moorman, Mike Schneck, Aaron Schobel, Nate Clements, Jason Peters, Marshawn Lynch, Jairus Byrd, Kyle Williams, CJ Spiller, Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Tyrod Taylor, Eric Wood, Richie, McCoy... How many of these guys have the Bills drafted from 2000 til now? Clements, Schobel, Travis Henry, Kyle Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd, CJ Spiller, Marcell Dareus. I'm not even counting alternates because that just further proves my point that Pro Bowl means nothing. Out of this list of players we've drafted since 2000, how many players made a difference for us? Kyle Williams and... And before you start crying about me not including anyone from the Polian era, I'm only counting 2000-NOW because according to this BS stat you gave us, 2001-2009 included our highest percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod. That’s 4 more pro bowl players. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod. That’s 4 more pro bowl players. That’s why I titled the thread “Which Bills GM Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent.” Not “let’s defend Doug Whaley.” By the way @quotetheraven83 it sure seems like this dude things the Pro Bowl designation means something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Whaley also signed Mario, drafted Kiko (who was runner up Rookie of the year) who got traded for Shady, traded for Jerry Hughes, and signed Tyrod. That’s 4 more pro bowl players. Drafting is different from signing. Hughes, Shady, Tyrod and Mario don't count in this list since they weren't drafted. This counts DRAFTED. Reading is fundamental. 3 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: That’s why I titled the thread “Which Bills GM Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent.” Not “let’s defend Doug Whaley.” By the way @quotetheraven83 it sure seems like this dude things the Pro Bowl designation means something It does mean nothing. If it meant a whole lot, why did we trade our Pro Bowl QB to to the Browns? Edited April 20, 2018 by QuoteTheRaven83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, QuoteTheRaven83 said: Drafting is different from signing. It does mean nothing. If it meant a whole lot, why did we trade our Pro Bowl QB to to the Browns? Because he was an alternate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: Because he was an alternate. Exactly my point. Thanks for proving my point that the Pro Bowl means nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 40 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Many would disagree with you same ol song and dance, eh? I agree with him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 Let’s just take this all as correct. What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? Not sure what the end game is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: same ol song and dance, eh? I agree with him. You’re big on complaining 1 minute ago, Mango said: Let’s just take this all as correct. What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? Not sure what the end game is here. I write. You complain. That’s your endgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Mango said: Let’s just take this all as correct. What the point here? Have the Bills had good personnel with bad coaching? Does the pro bowl mean nothing? Have we underachieved with good drafts comparatively across the league? Not sure what the end game is here. My point is this... If these GM's had a higher percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players than Belichick, and he's got more rings, what's the point of these numbers? Show me the rings, not meaningless Pro Bowls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said: You’re big on complaining I write. You complain. That’s your endgame Huh? There were no complaints. Data should tell a story. I was asking what the next step was in putting together the Bills history with GM’s Just now, QuoteTheRaven83 said: My point is this... If these GM's had a higher percentage of drafting Pro Bowl players than Belichick, and he's got more rings, what's the point of these numbers? Show me the rings, not meaningless Pro Bowls. Sorry. That was directed at the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 20, 2018 Author Share Posted April 20, 2018 (edited) 1 minute ago, Mango said: Huh? There were no complaints. Data should tell a story. I was asking what the next step was in putting together the Bills history with GM’s Ok the sense I got the sense that you were taking a shot at me. And yes the data is correct Edited April 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuoteTheRaven83 Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said: Let's see who's right.... OK, so far that's 2 for me. None for you. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said: Ok the sense I got the sense that you were taking a shot at me. And yes the data is correct Gah. I meant, I’m not going to dive into nuts and bolts of it. Not to question it. It’s pretty binary. There’s nothing to question. When you break it down this way, what does it say about the Bills past. Hence the what’s the end game question. ??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 20, 2018 Share Posted April 20, 2018 How about determining who drafted the most players who are still on NFL rosters 5 years after being drafted? The Pro Bowl is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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