Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Tom Donahoe In The Draft?

[BuffaloRush]

Well there is just about one week to the 2018 NFL Draft where current GM Brandon Beane's fate very well could be decided.  Now let's review the final drafts for the last two Bills GM's.  Up first - GM Tom Donahoe who has a newly won Super Bowl ring with Philadelphia. 

 

* While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. 

 

* If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

* Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion.  We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team.  

 

Now if you recall, in 2001 Tom Donahoe and unprecedented amount of power, control, and money from owner Ralph Wilson who developed a habit of being tight with the pocket book strings.  The unsuccessful tenure of Donahoe essentially swayed Ralph against ever hiring a GM from outside of the organization.  But while Donahoe was not successful overall, let's see how he did in the draft.  Before though, here are my current rankings: 

 

1. John Butler: 38%

2. Russ Brandon: 28%

3. Marv Levy: 25%

4. Buddy Nix: 25%

5. Bill Polian: 23%

 

2001 Draft

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2001	1	Nate Clements	21	DB	2012	0	1	10	64	180												36	4.5	Ohio St.
2001	2	Aaron Schobel	46	DE	2009	0	2	8	61	133												3	78.0	TCU
2001	2	Travis Henry	58	RB	2007	0	1	4	41	90	0	1	0	0	1	1488	6086	38	141	951	2			Tennessee
2001	3	Ron Edwards	76	DT	2012	0	0	6	39	139													16.5	Texas A&M
2001	3	Jonas Jennings	95	T	2008	0	0	5	29	75														Georgia
2001	4	Brandon Spoon	110	LB	2001	0	0	1	5	14												2		North Carolina
2001	5	Marques Sullivan	144	G	2003	0	0	1	11	32														Illinois
2001	6	Tony Driver	178	DB	2002	0	0	0	0	11														Notre Dame
2001	6	Dan O'Leary	195	TE	2002	0	0	0	1	17														Notre Dame
2001	6	Jimmy Williams	196	DB	2006	0	0	0	9	80												3	1.0	Vanderbilt
2001	7	Reggie Germany	214	WR	2001	0	0	0	2	16									12	203	0			Ohio St.
2001	7	Tyrone Robertson	238	DT	2001	0	0	0	1	12													2.0

 

2001 was a very strong draft for TD.  He was able to successfully hit on his first 5 picks.  Clements and Schobel proved to be above average starters who many thought had potential to be among the best at their position.  Travis Henry was extremely solid at RB, though fumbles and poor personal choices ended his career.  In the 3rd round TD grabbed two starters in Ron Edwards and Jonas Jennings.  The rest of the draft was hot garbage, though Marques Sullivan did end up starting the entire season in 2002.  He gets a miss though as he was not good.  Overall a very good draft

 

Hits 5

Misses 7

Success:  42%  

 

2002

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2002	1	Mike Williams	4	T	2009	0	0	3	25	59														Texas
2002	2	Josh Reed	36	WR	2009	0	0	3	28	115						14	57	0	311	3575	10			LSU
2002	2	Ryan Denney	61	DE	2010	0	0	2	24	113									2	44	2		23.5	BYU
2002	3	Coy Wire	97	DB	2010	0	0	1	16	127													5.0	Stanford
2002	5	Justin Bannan	139	DT	2013	0	0	3	36	163												1	6.5	Colorado
2002	6	Kevin Thomas	176	DB	2004	0	0	0	5	38									1	24	0	1	1.5	UNLV
2002	7	Mike Pucillo	215	G	2007	0	0	1	9	48														Auburn
2002	7	Rodney Wright	249	WR		0	0	0																Fresno St.
2002	7	Jarrett Ferguson	251	RB		0	0	0																Virginia Tech
2002	7	Dominique Stevenson	260	LB	2004	0	0	0	2	21														Tennessee

 

2002

This draft was very poor.  Donahoe missed badly on the Mike Williams selection, though in his defense many other GM's would have made the mistake and William was seen as a "can't miss prospect."  The rest of the draft is not impressive.  Justin Bannan had a very decent career in the NFL, but not with the Bills, so he gets a Miss.  In a move that will surprise many, I am giving Josh Reed a borderline hit.  I remember him as not being very good, but when you look at his production the numbers don't like.  He was a very decent slot WR:

 

He had 50+ catches for nearly half of his career with the Bills

I know I will get "Coy Wire was a hit" but he only started one season and played poorly.  He was a decent ST'er but did not live up to his 3rd round status.  Ditto for Mike Pucillo who was a below average starter for 1 terrible year.  Bad draft.

 

Hits: 1

Misses: 9

Success: 10%

 

2003

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2003	1	Willis McGahee	23	RB	2013	0	2	7	55	142						2095	8474	65	210	1339	5			Miami (FL)
2003	2	Chris Kelsay	48	DE	2012	0	0	8	47	147												3	32.5	Nebraska
2003	3	Angelo Crowell	94	LB	2007	0	0	3	19	65												5	7.0	Virginia
2003	4	Terrence McGee	111	DB	2012	0	1	6	48	122												17	3.0	NW State (LA)
2003	4	Sam Aiken	127	WR	2010	0	0	0	7	95									48	684	2			North Carolina
2003	5	Ben Sobieski	151	T	2003	0	0	0	0	1														Iowa
2003	6	Lauvale Sape	187	DT	2005	0	0	0	1	10														Utah
2003	7	Mario Haggan	228	LB	2012	0	0	2	21	132												1	9.0	Mississippi St.

 

A much better effort from Donahoe.  Many questioned the pick of an injured McGahee, though he had 3 strong years before the very bad trade to Baltimore.  Chris Kelsay get's a very marginal hit.  While he was never spectacular and very average, he did start for nearly 8 seasons.  He was very Shaq Lawson like.  McGee and Crowell were very good selections and competent starters for mid round selections.  Finally Mario Haggan gets a hit for his contributions on Special Teams as a 7th round draft pick.   This very well could be Donahoe's best draft and the highest success rate for hits and misses

 

Hits: 5

Misses: 3

Success:  63%

 

2004 

ear	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2004	1	Lee Evans	13	WR	2011	0	0	7	49	118	0	1	0	0	0	10	145	0	381	6008	43			Wisconsin
2004	1	J.P. Losman	22	QB	2011	0	0	2	19	45	564	952	6271	33	34	105	490	3						Tulane
2004	3	Tim Anderson	74	DT	2007	0	0	1	7	43													1.0	Ohio St.
2004	4	Tim Euhus	109	TE	2007	0	0	0	1	34									14	115	2			Oregon St.
2004	7	Dylan McFarland	207	T	2005	0	0	0	0	3														Montana
2004	7	Jonathan Smith	214	WR	2006	0	0	0	2	18						3	12	0	8	77	1			Georgia Tech

 

This is the draft which ruined Tom Donahoe.  He missed on nearly every pick, though I decided to give Lee Evans a hit.  While his numbers are not specular, Lee was very underutilized in a poor offensive scheme with QB's who never should have been on the field.  He had two very good years and a few other decent ones.  Overall, I'm giving him a marginal hit.  The rest are just hot garbage.

 

Donahoe deserves an extra kick in the ass with this draft.  It's heavily rumored that he had a deal to move up a few spots in the draft to select Big Ben Roethlisberger who he loved.  At the last second he backed off only to have Pittsburgh grab in at #11.  In a move of desperation he reached badly and traded up to draft the terrible QB known as JP Losman.    This move screwed the franchise.  Donahoe's success rate should be 0%

 

Hits: 1

Misses:  5

Success: 17%

EPIC MISS: 1

 

2005

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2005	2	Roscoe Parrish	55	WR	2012	0	0	0	14	90	1	1	3	0	0	14	71	1	134	1502	7			Miami (FL)
2005	3	Kevin Everett	86	TE	2007	0	0	0	0	17									2	4	0			Miami (FL)
2005	4	Duke Preston	122	C	2008	0	0	2	11	59														Illinois
2005	5	Eric King	156	DB	2010	0	0	0	4	63														Wake Forest
2005	6	Justin Geisinger	197	G	2008	0	0	0	0	6														Vanderbilt
2005	7	Lionel Gates	236	RB	2007	0	0	0	0	1														Louisville

 

Ouch another very very poor draft from Tom.  It's no wonder why this would be his last.  With a very limited number of picks, Donahoe gave the Bills straight up garbage.  Roscoe Parrish was an ill-advised reach in round 2 and couldn't stay on the field long enough to do anything.  His 4th round selection of Duke Preston was his only hit - and it was very close..  Dukie was never a star by any means though he did start for two years - not bad for a 4th round pick.  

 

Overall: 12/36

Hits 12

Misses 24

Success Rate: 33%

 

Donahoe was not a good GM and that can't be debated.  He made many very poor decisions while running the team.  However, compared to other GM's he did a fairly decent job with the draft and as you'll see below he hit on more selections that some of the other GM's.  He had a few good drafts and a few bad ones, which by Bills standards is not that bad.

 

 

Current Standings:

 

1. John Butler: 38%

2. Tom Donahoe: 33%

3. Russ Brandon: 28%

4. Marv Levy: 25%

5. Buddy Nix: 25%

6. Bill Polian: 23%

 

[DrDawkinstein]

I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully.

 

Good idea, but questionable execution.

[BuffaloRush]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully.

 

Good idea, but questionable execution.

 

Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree.  Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized?   IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree.  Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized?   IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid.

 

Ha! Ok, Trump. Many others? The list has been up for 15 minutes and Im the only one thats commented. You take yourself too seriously on this, dude. The issue is, when you have a couple percentage points making the difference between your GM rankings, one or two guys changed from hits to misses or vice versa can have a major effect.

 

Here's a big inconsistency and one you even pointed out yourself, and then used your own bias to rationalize it and create the inconsistency:

 

Coy Wire - Miss

Lonnie Johnson, Sean Moran, Matt Stevens - Hits

 

Now, I dont like Coy Wire either, but he was ST captain for multiple years and saw plenty of (too much) playing time. But if Moran or Stevens is a hit, so is Wire. Or they're all misses.

 

Just an example.

[BuffaloRush]

34 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Ha! Ok, Trump. Many others? The list has been up for 15 minutes and Im the only one thats commented. You take yourself too seriously on this, dude. The issue is, when you have a couple percentage points making the difference between your GM rankings, one or two guys changed from hits to misses or vice versa can have a major effect.

 

Here's a big inconsistency and one you even pointed out yourself, and then used your own bias to rationalize it and create the inconsistency:

 

Coy Wire - Miss

Lonnie Johnson, Sean Moran, Matt Stevens - Hits

 

Now, I dont like Coy Wire either, but he was ST captain for multiple years and saw plenty of (too much) playing time. But if Moran or Stevens is a hit, so is Wire. Or they're all misses.

 

Just an example.

Right just one example - you are splitting hairs.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, BuffaloRush said:

Right just one example - you are splitting hairs.

 

Dont be salty. You literally asked for one player from this list, so I gave you 1... and 3 more for comparison.

 

I'll leave it at that.

[KD in CA]

McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time.   Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made.

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, KD in CA said:

McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time.   Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made.

 

You can make the argument they didnt need him with Henry.  But the bottom line is that he was a solid pick.  3 seasons with the Bills me had 1100, 1300, and 990 yards.  He was a solid pick and Pro Bowl player 

[Sky Diver]

He disn’t build winning teams so he was a failure.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Sky Diver

[BuffaloRush]

20 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

He disn’t build winning teams so he was a failure.

 

Fair enough... he did an ok job with the draft though.  

[Sky Diver]

Isn’t that like saying the mechanic deal a really good job of taking the motor apart, but he did a terrible job of putting it back together?  In the end, the car won’t run.

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Sky Diver

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree.  Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized?   IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid.

 

Like the other poster said, I think the general idea of these posts was interesting.  And it obviously took a lot of work.

But it's hard to take your conclusions seriously, considering how subjective your definition of a "hit" and a "miss" is. 

 

Maybe it would be more effective if you came up with a concrete baseline for what makes a player a "hit" - such as how many years they play in the NFL, how many games they start in the NFL, etc., etc.  I also think a GM should get more credit for hitting on a Pro-Bowl talent like Aaron Schobel, than he does for hitting on a special teams guy like Mario Haggan.  Maybe give picks a grade like A, B, C, D or F.  When ranking Donahoe as a GM, you also need to consider that JP Losman cost two 1st Round Picks, and Drew Bledsoe cost another. 

 

Right now, your system seems to be some combination of how good the player was, against what round they were drafted in, with a dash of how long they actually played for Buffalo.  Then everything boils down to nothing more than a percentage of successful picks.  It's not really working.

 

[Jay_Fixit]

Nice, the guy who doesn’t know the difference between a hit and a miss.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Dont be salty. You literally asked for one player from this list, so I gave you 1... and 3 more for comparison.

 

I'll leave it at that.

You did in fact get sucked in again 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

These lists NEVER go well.....

[Buftex]

No doubt he wasn't successful in the draft...nobody has been, since Butler. Go back and run your test for the other 31 teams in the leauge, I suspect that Donohoe will rank somewhere in the middle of the pack.  As bad as he may have been in the draft, he did well with free agency.  The draft is only part of it.  I also think Wilson set the team back a decade, by firing him, without an adequate replacement.  Love Marv Levy, but he was probably the worts GM of all...Donohoe wasn't always right, but he was agressive about trying to address team needs.  

1 hour ago, KD in CA said:

McGahee was one of the dumbest draft picks of all time.   Donahoe should have been fired within 30 seconds of that pick being made.

I kinda know what you mean, KD.  He wasn't a real need (though he was drafted knowing the Travis Henry was one false move away from being a "former-Buffalo Bill"), but if you recall, McGahee was considered a "generational player" before that horrific injury.  The injury hurt his speed, but he had a pretty solid career...if not as spectacular as was envisioned.  It was a gamble of a pick...probably reckless...but I wouldn't say it ended up as a terrible pick.  

Edited April 19, 2018 by Buftex

[Mango]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree.  Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized?   IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid.

 

These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense.

 

It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd

[BuffaloRush]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

 

These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense.

 

It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd

 

Dont forget the threads with you whinging like a baby

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Mango said:

These threads always devolve into 5 pages of people telling you why this doesn’t make sense.

 

It seems like you’re looking for an echo chamber. It’s odd

 

He doesn't want debate. He ends each of these posts saying "this can not be debated".  When you do debate him he doesn't engage with the arguments.  I appreciate his work but it is slightly myopic.   

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I wish I could get into this discussion, but it always comes back to how inconsistent and subjective your rating system is. And I dont want to have to nitpick when the issues should be obvious. So I'm just going to back away respectfully.

 

Good idea, but questionable execution.

 

Agreed - hard to look at the percentages and gain anything meaningful when the hits and misses are all over the place.