The Bills rebuild with a trade-down after an early run on QB

[McD]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Alright, let me rephrase.  The last draft folks talk about as being rich with multiple qbs (and of course only some worked out) was 1983.  That's 35 years ago.  It is rare to have a draft with 4 or more qbs that might be considered for the first round.  A normal draft has 1 or 2 or actually zero.  We have the draft capital this year, not next year, etc.  

Fair enough, but I'd also be cautious in the hype generated by the media over QB's... the position IS important, the most important on the field, but again I ask if the hype generated is making this years draft class more prolific than it actually is?  Then we "feel" that we "have" to get a QB and we pass up the opportunity to fill numerous roster spots with higher end draft picks.  One good thing is the cap space looks better for us the next few years, so who knows what the plan is.   

[BillsFan17]

Cant wait for the All Pro Hall of Fame LB and that stud CB we have that becomes the face of our defense like Revis was for the Jets... and the Bill's have just have an assembly of high quality players from all the draft picks, but still lack that QB

 

Only to finish 8-8, 9-7, 8-8 before McDermott and Beane are replaced and the next regime is still searching for a QB..

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, McD said:

Fair enough, but I'd also be cautious in the hype generated by the media over QB's... the position IS important, the most important on the field, but again I ask if the hype generated is making this years draft class more prolific than it actually is?  Then we "feel" that we "have" to get a QB and we pass up the opportunity to fill numerous roster spots with higher end draft picks.  One good thing is the cap space looks better for us the next few years, so who knows what the plan is.   

One has to hope that Beane and McD are sound football minds with good judgment.  I presume the hype is for the entertainment of fans.  If the GM gets caught up in that, he won't be good at his job.

[maryland-bills-fan]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Of all the available options ... YES ... the absolute smartest when your goal is to be consistently competitive for a championship.

...and all the other players are all equal on every team, so only the QB matters.

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...and all the other players are all equal on every team, so only the QB matters.

No, all players are not equal. The QB IS however, the great equalizer. There's no such thing as an NFL team without holes. You plug them as best you can ( ex Eagles had WRs on one year " prove it deals". Can't do that at QB) with FAs etc. You need QB, pass rusher, pass protector and pay the elite ones. All other positions are rotated in and out every couple seasons. That is the new NFL. You don't get to build a perfect team and keep drafted players together for years. That worked in the 80's. 

[Luxy312]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

...and all the other players are all equal on every team, so only the QB matters.

 

Just an ignorant statement.  By your words, every team has a LeSean McCoy.  Every team has an Antonio Brown and a Von Miller.  So many more examples that pointing out the ridiculousness of this statement is almost not even necessary.

[Mojo44]

56 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Let's  look at the stats.  McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84.    So of those two,  Taylor had 22% of the running plays.    For yardage Taylor had 27% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you?

 

 

No.	Player	Age	Pos	G	GS	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
25	LeSean McCoy*	29	RB	16	16	287	1138	6	48	4.0	71.1	17.9	77	59	448	7.6	2	39	3.7	28.0	76.6%	1586	8	3
5	Tyrod Taylor	28	QB	15	14	84	427	4	32	5.1	28.5	5.6										427	4	4

 I’m not sure what your point is. Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me?

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, Luxy312 said:

 

Just an ignorant statement.  By your words, every team has a LeSean McCoy.  Every team has an Antonio Brown and a Von Miller.  So many more examples that pointing out the ridiculousness of this statement is almost not even necessary.

Take the comment with a grain of salt as sarcasm.

 

[Luxy312]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Take the comment with a grain of salt as sarcasm.

 

 

I take it with a grain of salt as fantasy and simply a statement that fits your narrative.

[CamboBill]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

No, all players are not equal. The QB IS however, the great equalizer. There's no such thing as an NFL team without holes. You plug them as best you can ( ex Eagles had WRs on one year " prove it deals". Can't do that at QB) with FAs etc. You need QB, pass rusher, pass protector and pay the elite ones. All other positions are rotated in and out every couple seasons. That is the new NFL. You don't get to build a perfect team and keep drafted players together for years. That worked in the 80's. 

The Eagles won the Superbowl including most of the 2nd half of last season, the playoffs, and the Super  bowl .... with Nick Foles ... hardly an elite QB.  .... and none of Tom Brady, Case Keenum, oe Matt Ryan proved to be equalizers.

 

Teams win championships .... not individual players.

[longtimebillsfan]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense.  ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle.  Three new faces are needed there................  We have one starting linebacker and need two more.  Somebody from the first two rounds would do.....................  Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play.  Don't think so.  At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position?   Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot.  Yea, right.

 

With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about.  The games are won in the "trenches".  A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything.  I say we should do the following.  Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available.  If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick.    (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay)

 

Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick.

 

down to     gets us this overall pick

==============================

#14............100th player  (4th round)

#16.............78th player  (3rd round)

#18............60th player    (2nd round)

#20............55th player

#22.............48th player

#24.............44th player

#26.............40th player

#28.............36th player

#30.............32nd player

#32...............30.5th player (1st round)

.

.

From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea).

30.

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30

31.

Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10

32.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17

33.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30

34.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30

35.

Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10

36.

James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9

37.

Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24

38.

Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19

39.

Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20

40.

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10

41.

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9

42.

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0

43.

Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30

44.

JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11

45.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30

46.

Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14

47.

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17

48.

Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30

49.

Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30

50.

Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30

51.

R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9

52.

Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9

53.

Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9

54.

Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9

55.

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest.

 http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC

 

A good center,  a good linebacker, a good WR or a  good RB.  You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for  your effort.     If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

 

 

 

 

This is an amazing dose of reality.   Thank you.   Very well done. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

...and all the other players are all equal on every team, so only the QB matters.

 

 

Yeah, if you find anyone who had said that, that would have been a terrific response. 

 

In the meantime, though, you'll have to better paraphrase me for me to bother spending time on an answer.

 

EDIT: Boatdrinks said it for me.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, CamboBill said:

The Eagles won the Superbowl including most of the 2nd half of last season, the playoffs, and the Super  bowl .... with Nick Foles ... hardly an elite QB.  .... and none of Tom Brady, Case Keenum, oe Matt Ryan proved to be equalizers.

 

Teams win championships .... not individual players.

 

 

Yup, teams win championships. And about 90% of the teams that do are teams with a QB in the top 10 or 12 QBs in the league.

 

And Philly wouldn't have won the SB without Wentz.

 

Wentz in-season record: 11-2

 

Foles in-season record 2-1 (squeaking by the 3-13 Giants and the 6-10 Raiders and losing to the 9-7 Cowboys by a score of 6-0) and in the LA game they won where Wentz was injured, did they win because of Wentz (23/41, 281 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, 31 points scored by the offense in the 3 quarters he played) or Foles (6/10, 42 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, six points - 2 FGs - scored by the offense in the one quarter he was in the game. And one of those field goals came on a 10 yard drive from the LA 25 to the LA 15 after a strip sack on Goff.)

 

 

2 hours ago, CamboBill said:

The difference in this year's draft is that there is no clear cut #1 choice.  you can take the top 5 and pull a name of out of a hat and make an argument for why should be #1.  You do NOT give the farm away in a trade trade up in this scenario.  This is a good QB draft in that it is DEEP ... but it is NOT top heavy.  There are 5 QB prospects that might have big futures and two or three others that might have a shot at being decent starters some day. There is nobody to trade up for ... There is no Wentz or Goff in this draft.   I think we might need to move into the top 8, but there is no need to overpay for #2.  This is fools Gold.

 

 

No.

 

This argument only works in years where there's a major dropoff in talent between, say #1 and #2 or between #2 and #3. A draft in QB isn't deep if it has four QBs go in the top five spots. It's top-heavy. This draft is top-heavy and maybe deep as well with guys like Lauletta and  Rudolph and Falk and so on.

 

When the #4 QB is good enough to go probably 4th or 5th, it doesn't matter whether the players picked before him are QBs or not. It only matters that he's good enough to go at the #4 or #5 spot.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

We traded our top OT to get to 12, I highly doubt were trading down but these are the Bills so you never know what stupid move they can do next. I'd like to think we've moved on from the stupid moves and finally getting our QB, looks like this regime agrees. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

We traded our top OT to get to 12, I highly doubt were trading down but these are the Bills so you never know what stupid move they can do next. I'd like to think we've moved on from the stupid moves and finally getting our QB, looks like this regime agrees. 

As I've said before, I think the Bills wanted to dump big contracts and aging players ASAP and would take what they got for them.  They have a 3 year? 5 year? plan for getting to be a top team and these guys will not be helping them at that point.. Hence Watkins and Darby and Glenn are gone.  What they got for Glen was an improvement in 1st round draft position.  What for?  For whatever is best for the team. It is not written in stone that the only thing is for moving up for a top QB.   Maybe they might be able to move up a few notches for one of the top QB.  Maybe they stand pat and can also get a top QB at that spot.  Maybe there is a position player (MLB?) to take there. Maybe they trade down and pick up another 1st day draft slot.   I don't know how they rank the top 4-5 QB's, so I would just be guessing.  I think that there is a chance they stay pat and take BPA or even move down to get another pick.   I don't see how they HAVE TO be committed to moving  up to the top five picks. It is not written in stone.  One thing that IS TRUE is that the trades and weaknesses in several positions means there are a lot of holes to fill and that might be what they fix.

 

Edited April 4, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[billykay]

6 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

I don't think the broncos would go QB at 5.  The 4th best QB or a top dog pass rusher?  Or even trading down to try and address both pass rush and pass protection.

But someone could move up to 5 to take a QB.

[K-9]

Another "too many other holes" thread?

 

Once again: add up the entire depth of all those other holes on the team. How deep is it? The answer is it doesn't matter because the hole at QB is bottomless. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Another "too many other holes" thread?

 

Once again: add up the entire depth of all those other holes on the team. How deep is it? The answer is it doesn't matter because the hole at QB is bottomless. 

"The hole is bottomless? ".   McCarron won two college national championships and has played most of 4 games in the NFL.  He has a 93.6 QB rating.   that is not a bottomless hole.

 

[K-9]

31 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"The hole is bottomless? ".   McCarron won two college national championships and has played most of 4 games in the NFL.  He has a 93.6 QB rating.   that is not a bottomless hole.

 

It's bottomless until you fill it with a QB that can put the franchise on his shoulders for the next 10-15 years. If McCarron is that guy, great but there has been ABSOLUTELY NO indication that he is or even can be at this point. Great college career but not enough to get him qualified as a blue chip, elite talent at the position. 

 

Point is, if you don't have a QB, it doesn't matter how many other holes you fill. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

As I've said before, I think the Bills wanted to dump big contracts and aging players ASAP and would take what they got for them.  They have a 3 year? 5 year? plan for getting to be a top team and these guys will not be helping them at that point.. Hence Watkins and Darby and Glenn are gone.  What they got for Glen was an improvement in 1st round draft position.  What for?  For whatever is best for the team. It is not written in stone that the only thing is for moving up for a top QB.   Maybe they might be able to move up a few notches for one of the top QB.  Maybe they stand pat and can also get a top QB at that spot.  Maybe there is a position player (MLB?) to take there. Maybe they trade down and pick up another 1st day draft slot.   I don't know how they rank the top 4-5 QB's, so I would just be guessing.  I think that there is a chance they stay pat and take BPA or even move down to get another pick.   I don't see how they HAVE TO be committed to moving  up to the top five picks. It is not written in stone.  One thing that IS TRUE is that the trades and weaknesses in several positions means there are a lot of holes to fill and that might be what they fix.

 

 

And what is the next 17 year plan with fillers and retread QBs? It hasn't worked out, time to draft and develop our own. I think this coaching staff can hide a few of the positions but you cannot hide a QB.