Shaw66 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 As some of you know, Football Outsiders takes a highly analytical, statistically driven approach to evaluating teams and individual players. Like any rating system, there are assumptions built into their analytical tools that affect their results. Thus, like any rating system, there's some bias built into the system. Still, they're objective is to be as objective as possible. I happened to look at Football Outsiders today, and it turns out they have a system for evaluating college quarterbacks. I have no idea how they do it, but I'm sure they explain it on their website. If it's like their other systems, you'll need a Masters degree in statistics to understand it. They have applied their system, called QBASE, to previous drafts. The highest rated guys on their system are Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Russell Wilson, Peyton, Mariota, Leftwich, Rodgers and Roethlisberger. In other words, their system seems to work reasonably well. Certainly there are some names they missed, and Leftwich is an outlier, but it seems like if a guy rates high on their system there's a pretty good chance that he's going to make it in the NFL. Doesn't mean that some other guys who aren't highly rated won't make it; just means that you're looking good if you rate high. So they analyzed 2018, and one guy stands alone - everyone else is back in the pack somewhere, not close. Baker Mayfield rates number 4 on their ALL-TIME list, of college quarterbacks behind McNabb and ahead of Russell Wilson. Their article about this is here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018 Sorry if this has been discussed in another thread - I didn't see it anywhere. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 (edited) Their breakdown seems weird....just this alone raises tons of red flags - Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017 Player / QBASE: Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 So based on these same metrics, they had Byron Leftwich ahead of Aaron Rodgers & Ben Roethlisberger? Or Carson Palmer above Peyton Manning? I think Mayfield will be good too, but the way they put value on QB's pre-draft projections seems off if these are the results. Darnold having a 52% Bust rating & 4% Elite rating compared to Luke Faulk's 54% & 7%? Wtf is going on there? Edited March 30, 2018 by BigDingus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: As some of you know, Football Outsiders takes a highly analytical, statistically driven approach to evaluating teams and individual players. Like any rating system, there are assumptions built into their analytical tools that affect their results. Thus, like any rating system, there's some bias built into the system. Still, they're objective is to be as objective as possible. I happened to look at Football Outsiders today, and it turns out they have a system for evaluating college quarterbacks. I have no idea how they do it, but I'm sure they explain it on their website. If it's like their other systems, you'll need a Masters degree in statistics to understand it. They have applied their system, called QBASE, to previous drafts. The highest rated guys on their system are Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Russell Wilson, Peyton, Mariota, Leftwich, Rodgers and Roethlisberger. In other words, their system seems to work reasonably well. Certainly there are some names they missed, and Leftwich is an outlier, but it seems like if a guy rates high on their system there's a pretty good chance that he's going to make it in the NFL. Doesn't mean that some other guys who aren't highly rated won't make it; just means that you're looking good if you rate high. So they analyzed 2018, and one guy stands alone - everyone else is back in the pack somewhere, not close. Baker Mayfield rates number 4 on their ALL-TIME list, of college quarterbacks behind McNabb and ahead of Russell Wilson. Their article about this is here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/qbase-2018 Sorry if this has been discussed in another thread - I didn't see it anywhere. Color me deeply skeptical of any system that has Josh Rosen ranked lower than Lamar Jackson. In general, I like Football Outsiders but this is strange to me. I like Lamar Jackson. I differ from some others in that I don't see him as a running QB, I see him as a QB who is right up there with some of the other prospects in passing ability and pocket presence AND can also run. But he has a long way to go over Rosen in terms of refining his mechanics so he can put the ball on the money every time, and improving his ability to read a defense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 18 minutes ago, BigDingus said: Their breakdown seems weird....just this alone raises tons of red flags - Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017 Player / QBASE: Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 So based on these same metrics, they had Byron Leftwich ahead of Aaron Rodgers & Ben Roethlisberger? Or Carson Palmer above Peyton Manning? I think Mayfield will be good too, but the way they put value on QB's pre-draft projections seems off if these are the results. Darnold having a 52% Bust rating & 4% Elite rating compared to Luke Faulk's 54% & 7%? Wtf is going on there? Read what they say about Darnold. Surprisingly, very few guys who have started only two years in college have made it in the NFL, and the ones that did make in the pros had much better production in college than Darnold. Cam Newtons stats in college blow away Darnold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Seems like most sites using these analytics like Mayfield over everyone else. I would love to see us get Baker, he could be our feisty Brees / Kelly..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 interesting stuff shaw, thanks for posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thurst44 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Color me deeply skeptical of any system that has Josh Rosen ranked lower than Lamar Jackson. In general, I like Football Outsiders but this is strange to me. I like Lamar Jackson. I differ from some others in that I don't see him as a running QB, I see him as a QB who is right up there with some of the other prospects in passing ability and pocket presence AND can also run. But he has a long way to go over Rosen in terms of refining his mechanics so he can put the ball on the money every time, and improving his ability to read a defense. They don't really have Jackson significantly higher than Rosen, and they have Rosen marginally more likely to be better than adequate. Their argument, and there's some logic to it, is that Jackson didn't have nearly the supporting cast of Rosen. That manifested itself in his highest drop rate. On that same note, that also accentuates the point that he didn't play the same level of competition, soooo... Personally, I'd marginally prefer a trade up and Rosen to getting Jackson at 12 or 22, but I'd be excited with either on my team (or Mayfield). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Read what they say about Darnold. Surprisingly, very few guys who have started only two years in college have made it in the NFL, and the ones that did make in the pros had much better production in college than Darnold. Cam Newtons stats in college blow away Darnold. It makes sense that 2 years in college wouldn't be as successful as 3 or 4, but each individual is their own case. Whether "experts" say they're too small, don't have a big arm, didn't play in a pro-system, had a bad combine, didn't play against good competition/played at a small school, etc. there's always SOMETHING different that can be pointed to to assume they won't do well in the NFL. Some people get drafted in the 1st round, then sit 3 years behind a first ballot HOF'er (Rodgers) and become great (who knows what would've happened with his career had he played day 1). Some people are mediocre their first 2 years, prompting their team to draft their replacement year 3, only to light it up & become a first ballot HOF'er themselves (Brees). Some get passed up repeatedly & don't get drafted until the 3rd or even 6th rounds because they're seen as projects, then prove the world wrong (Wilson & Brady). Then on the flip side you have people that tore it up in college, won Heisman's, won National Championships, broke NCAA records left & right, and ended up bombing out in the NFL. I think the most you can do is look at their in-game play, their decision making, their leadership, and their personality...and that's it. Are they smart? Do they party a lot & stir up controversy? Did they rise to the occasion in big games? How did they play against good teams? How's their work ethic & commitment? Do they have drug problems/possible suspensions? THOSE are the things that usually end up being the deciding factors in who ends up succeeding as an NFL QB. If multiple red flags pop up for those questions, history has shown us they usually fail. The rest of their success is based on what the coaches who drafted them do with them, and if they're developed well & put in a position to succeed. Edited March 31, 2018 by BigDingus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, thurst44 said: They don't really have Jackson significantly higher than Rosen, and they have Rosen marginally more likely to be better than adequate. Their argument, and there's some logic to it, is that Jackson didn't have nearly the supporting cast of Rosen. That manifested itself in his highest drop rate. On that same note, that also accentuates the point that he didn't play the same level of competition, soooo... Personally, I'd marginally prefer a trade up and Rosen to getting Jackson at 12 or 22, but I'd be excited with either on my team (or Mayfield). Rosen didn't have the greatest supporting cast himself. His WR dropped something like 31 passes to Jackson's 34. I'm not a college football scout, and I don't want to pretend to be one on the internet, but I spent a fair bit of time watching game film and scouting paste ups on the various QBs. I can see making an argument for Mayfield being a top prospect in the draft - I personally think more highly of Rosen but there's a lot of potayto potahto there. I like Jackson as a QB prospect and think the people who portray him as a running QB or a QB who doesn't throw from the pocket, didn't watch a lot of this year's film. I think Jackson could become a very good QB. But watching Rosen and Jackson both make progressions and throw during games, they're not on the same field let alone on the same set of hashmarks as QB at this point. And any system that crunches the numbers and puts them close to each other in their current state of development (much less Jackson slightly ahead) is, sorry, a system to be skeptical about. Edited March 31, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiz Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 They pegged these Bills busts EJ Manuel +170 JP Losman -192 Trent Edwards -647 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 32 minutes ago, Wiz said: They pegged these Bills busts EJ Manuel +170 JP Losman -192 Trent Edwards -647 How did you find that? I not able to figure out how to look at past years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Voice Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: Seems like most sites using these analytics like Mayfield over everyone else. I would love to see us get Baker, he could be our feisty Brees / Kelly..... YEAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I honestly don't think analytics are necessary to understand Mayfield is the best QB prospect in this Draft... They don't hurt when attempting to make the point though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiz Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said: How did you find that? I not able to figure out how to look at past years. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Voice Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 5 hours ago, BigDingus said: Baker Mayfield YEAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Shaw, I’ve read so many threads on all of these QBs these last few weeks and one thing I’m sure of is that if it was actually my full time job to watch hours of film, talk to players and coaches and interview the actual prospects themselves, I would be darn confident in my ability to rank them against each other. All of us, who do something else for a living have to rely on second-hand ‘expert’ opinions, a quick glance at a highlight package, and a few often poorly written internet blogs. I’m going to Trust the Process and let the folks at OBD sort this out. There’s no magic set of statistics or analytics from which you’ll stumble upon the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRightRevenge Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Put all these elements together, and Mayfield has the fourth-highest QBASE projection of any prospect since 1997. The only players projected higher were Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb. Here are the top 10 prospects since 1997 based on the current formula: Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017 Player QBASE Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 None of this is a guarantee that Mayfield is going to be a star in the NFL. Just below the QBASE top ten are prospects who didn't pan out, including John Beck, Matt Leinart, and Christian Ponder. But based on his college performance, Mayfield has the best odds of any quarterback in this class of being an elite starter in the NFL, and the lowest odds of being a bust. DAMN .. Let's get Baker!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jahnyc Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 The bust potential with these quarterbacks is staggering considering where they will be taken in the draft and, in our case, the potential draft capital that will need to be used if we want to trade into the top five of the draft to select one of these players. I really don't envy our front office in figuring out who is the right quarterback to draft and potentially how much to give up to get that guy. We clearly need a quality starting QB, and this draft seems stronger than most recent drafts (and likely next year's draft) for college QBs. The pressure is on for the front office to get this done and make the right choice. I would love for the front office to hold on to our picks since we have so many holes to fill, but I have a feeling if they can trade up to get one of their top guys at QB, they are going to do it, no matter the cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 14 hours ago, BigDingus said: Their breakdown seems weird....just this alone raises tons of red flags - Top QBASE Projections, 1997-2017 Player / QBASE: Philip Rivers 1964 Carson Palmer 1916 Donovan McNabb 1799 Baker Mayfield 1480 Russell Wilson 1288 Peyton Manning 1279 Marcus Mariota 1277 Byron Leftwich 1216 Aaron Rodgers 1216 Ben Roethlisberger 1211 So based on these same metrics, they had Byron Leftwich ahead of Aaron Rodgers & Ben Roethlisberger? Or Carson Palmer above Peyton Manning? I think Mayfield will be good too, but the way they put value on QB's pre-draft projections seems off if these are the results. Darnold having a 52% Bust rating & 4% Elite rating compared to Luke Faulk's 54% & 7%? Wtf is going on there? Missed this nugget... “Just below the QBASE top ten are prospects who didn't pan out, including John Beck, Matt Leinart, and Christian Ponder.” all this metric does is confirm Mayfield was a good college qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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