Some concerning Josh Allen stats

[LABILLBACKER]

On 3/14/2018 at 10:35 PM, TheTruthHurts said:

I see a mix of Rob Johnson and Jay Cutler Allen. 

 

Any ounce of pressure up the middle this guy has his head down bailing out, just like Rob Johnson. No. Pocket awareness is one of the biggest things I look for in a college QB, more than accuracy. 

 

College accuracy is important but 3rd on my list. Anticipation, pocket awareness and movement, accuracy. 

I would draft any qb ahead of Allen. He's got backup or bust written all over him.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I would draft any qb ahead of Allen. He's got backup or bust written all over him.

 

I repeat:

 

39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'll challenge anyone that says that Josh Allen is a guaranteed bust to go back and watch that Iowa game again.

 

That was not a kid that was overmatched; it was a kid that hung in there despite getting his arse kicked and his team failing brutally around him time and again.

 

[NewEraBills]

I'm not an Allen fan, but I've never said he'd be a bust.  I won't cast future predictions and I'll remain open to see what guys do.  I just don't think he's right for the Bills.  I think the Bills need a polished product or a near polished product and he's no where close to that.  Let's look at two games and watch what is consistent.

 

 

 

 

On the majority of his passes watch his helmet and what do you notice?  What I notice is it's not on a swivel.  For the most part, the only time he looks to the other side of the field is when he's trying to escape pressure.   There were a couple of throws in here where he did read the field.

 

On the majority of his passes look at his ball placement.  I think the argument that his WR's are not good is only half the story.  When you look at the bad throws he makes, they are BAD throws.  It's not that the WR's dropped them the ball placement is bad.

3:17 Swing Pass has way too much on it

3:30 Quick Hitch - Too much on this pass

3:36 Quick Bench Route - Way too much on this pass

3:55 Stick Route - Where are you throwing this?  At least the under coverage players didn't have a shot either

4:01-11 actually a stand out WR makes this catch.  Great job by Allen of hanging in there and making a play.

4:23  Too much 

4:30 Bullet.  Nice Pass and finally moves his head

4:45 OUTSTANDING Throw.

5:00 Not a good decision.  Not sure what he saw there.

5:26  Man, this reminds me of me as a little league pitcher.  I had a 75 mph fast ball at 10 years old, but it didn't always hit the catchers mit LOL.  Sometimes it would go over the empire.  Sometimes it was so far out of the strike zone away from the batter and sometimes, well, sorry kid, that sounds like it hurts.

5:34 Short pass to TE but TE is reaching up to get it.

5:42 Good throw.

5:50 Good throw

5:54 Way too high.  Too much on the pass.

6:01 Bad decision, but his power keeps Jewel from the INT

6:18 good throw

 

To be fair, Allen made some good throws against Iowa as I note above, he also made some really bad throws.  His ball placement is a problem.  Notice also, even on the good throws, he's not taking anything off the throws.  Every pass is a rocket.  He's going to have to learn when he needs to dial it down.

 Like others, what I like that stands out with Allen is the arm and the athleticism.  He has that for sure.  No doubt the strongest arm in the class.

 

Let's look at another game:

 

2016 vs Nebraska

Starts with some throws that are on the mark.

00:46 Same velocity but too high

00:56 Good athleticism

1:15  On the money pass.  Didn't like his lack of footwork here though

1:22 Nice throw to the perimeter

1:39  Good athleticism.  Actually was more lucky here.

2:05 quick swing pass - way too much on this

2:16 good pass; I'm not sure about the decision.  There is a defender there but he got away with it so I'll say ok.

2:35 TE wide open down the seam.  Too High

2:55  Too high again

3:29 Perfect coverage.  Probably should have looked elsewhere

4:03  Athleticism and arm.  What a play!!

4:27 Caught but behind the WR

4:37 Nice Throw.  Threaded the needle.

4:55 Good throw on the run

5:10 High and was not a good decision

5:22 Very high lol

6:13 

7:03  Behind the WR and still too much on it resulting in an interception

7:52 what a throw in the move.  Gessh.

8:05 swing pass to hb, behind him resulting in a backwards pass

8:27 Man this guy has a cannon

8:39  Was rooting for you Josh but who???  INT

9:17  why???

9:34 WR if Allen leads out front can catch this.  Threw behind him.  Another INT

 

 

It's crazy how when you look at some things again you do see stuff you didn't see before.  I'm going to re-watch some others.  I'll say this, Allen to me, is not the guy for the Bills.  But man, he has a rare arm.  His passes from one hash to the wide perimeter are beautiful passes.  He's got a gun.  I can see why people really like him.  He also has decent athleticism to make plays with his feet.  He's just too inaccurate and to me it's because he has not learned when to dial it down; when to take something off his throws.  All of his passes are lasers.  There is a little of Patrick Mahomes in his game too.  I can see him being taken around the same spot.  He has a lot to clean up but I still wouldn't put him in the Rosen and Mayfield camp.  I'm going to look at some more of JA today.  Give this guy to an Andy Reid or coach who is good at developing QB's and he could very well clean up some of this quicker than fans think but some things will linger.  

 

Again, I don't see him as the guy for the Bills, but if someone is able to take their time with him he could very well be an elite talent.  His arm reminds me of Flacco.  Unfortunately, right now, his accuracy does as well.  Off to re-watch more.

 

 

Edited March 16, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 3/15/2018 at 12:56 AM, kdiggz said:

I think you are thinking of Kyle Orton

My wife won't let me drink that anymore, it looks so good though. I drank that whole bottle at a wedding one time and threw up 22 times that night.

[KDIGGZ]

2 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

My wife won't let me drink that anymore, it looks so good though. I drank that whole bottle at a wedding one time and threw up 22 times that night.

That's a normal Tuesday night in the Orton household

[Woodman19]

The most concerning stat with Allen is that most of the posters on here don't seem to want him and that wanted % has 0 impact on the front offices decision.

[Nihilarian]

19 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

 But man, he has a rare arm.  His passes from one hash to the wide perimeter are beautiful passes.  He's got a gun.  I can see why people really like him.  He also has decent athleticism to make plays with his feet.  He's just too inaccurate and to me it's because he has not learned when to dial it down; when to take something off his throws.  All of his passes are lasers.  There is a little of Patrick Mahomes in his game too.  I can see him being taken around the same spot.  He has a lot to clean up but I still wouldn't put him in the Rosen and Mayfield camp.  I'm going to look at some more of JA today.  Give this guy to an Andy Reid or coach who is good at developing QB's and he could very well clean up some of this quicker than fans think but some things will linger.  

 

Again, I don't see him as the guy for the Bills, but if someone is able to take their time with him he could very well be an elite talent.  His arm reminds me of Flacco.  Unfortunately, right now, his accuracy does as well.  Off to re-watch more.

2

What I don't get is why some Bills fans think that what they watched in college is what they will see in the pros. The kid has only had two years of college development in a pro-style offense at Wyoming, which BTW is more difficult to play in. We all already know he had a poor supporting cast around him in 2017 and basically carried his team. 

 

Allen has already developed better mechanics, footwork, and accuracy as seen by his performance in the senior bowl. This young man is far from being a finished product and with a decent supporting cast around him with some quality coaching, he could be a franchise QB. This is what the scouts see and why they are projecting him to be a top ten pick.

 

I wouldn't watch too much of his college tape because you will go blind. It would be like watching only the first two years of Matthew Stafford in college in which he was 52.7 comp% in his first year and 55.7 in his second year. In his final season at Georgia, he went 61.4 completion percentage. Stafford also played in the SEC so he had better coaching too.

 

I wouldn't worry very much about the Buffalo Bills drafting Josh Allen as the Jets just traded up with the Colts for the #3 overall spot and Allen will be long gone unless Buffalo moves to #2. 

 

 

 

I look at Sam Darnold and see another Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez. Matt Barkley who fumbles far too often and has small hands.  A polished turd is still a turd. Watch Darnold in the first half of his 2017 season at USC! 

 

I look at Josh Rosen and see another Sam Bradford who can sling it with the best of them but can't take a hit, can't escape the pocket. Has poor deep ball percentage because his arm is below average. A WCO QB that is injury prone. 

 

If both Allen and Mayfield are gone by the 6th pick I'd say Buffalo should look at Mason Rudolph. 

 

 

[Misterbluesky]

On 3/15/2018 at 1:49 AM, Virgil said:

I’d be more upset about drafting him than I would be Jackson or Rudolph 

Another Jackson fan..where you fellas the past month?

[Virgil]

2 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

Another Jackson fan..where you fellas the past month?

 

I don’t want Jackson, hence my making that a point 

[Misterbluesky]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I don’t want Jackson, hence my making that a point 

Well..you're running out of options.

[mead107]

Is he the one

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Nah this bandit guy is telling me he's actually accurate and that advanced analytics and functioning human eyeballs are wrong

[thebandit27]

53 minutes ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Nah this bandit guy is telling me he's actually accurate and that advanced analytics and functioning human eyeballs are wrong

 

Try reading; I know it's asking a lot, but try it...also, if you're going to take pot shots, then man up and respond directly to me, or--failing that--tag me in the post where you mention my username.

 

For example, I'm willing to be a man and respond directly to you: you've brutally missed the point of my post, and you've provided zero context to support your assertions.  You've distilled an entire discussion of the kid down to his completion percentage, and you've done no analysis and provided zero persuasive points to further the discussion.

 

So I challenge you: instead of taking shots at someone and spouting one-liners, do a scintilla of work and attempt to make your point.  Have the gumption to take me up on it?

[dave mcbride]

On 3/15/2018 at 8:55 PM, Nihilarian said:

You were wrong about Taylor as he is STILL a starting QB in the NFL and now will be starting for the Browns.

 

If you loved Allen coming into the season then you must be aware that he came into college a skinny kid and grew into that big frame. He also had a much better supporting cast around him in his first year at Wyoming. The thing is, that anyone who was any good in 2016 left the team in 2017 and he basically was forced to deal with a bad surrounding cast all season. Bad offensive line, bad receiving corps and literally no run game to help him. 

 

The kid has only played in college for two years and still has room to further develop into a better QB. If you actually watched Allen play last year you would have noticed that in the games against the better schools the team around him really stunk it up and therefore he didn't play well at all considering he was literally running for his life in those games.

 

Iowa L 24-3 Comp% 57.5

Oregon 49-13 comp% 37.5

Boise St 24-14 comp% 44.4

 

Yes, Allen had some bad games last year and yet he still went 8-5 while winning the Idaho Potato Bowl. USC's Sam Darnold lost to Ohio St in the Cotton Bowl 24-7 with a completion percentage of 57.8%!  UCLA's Josh Rosen didn't play in the Cactus Bowl and they lost 35-17. UCLA went 6-7 last year.

 

Do I think this kid will be a future NFL star....YES! Do I know that he will be...NO! This young man is going to get drafted early because of his potential. He has an arm that can throw frozen ropes all over the field just like Aaron Rodgers

 

As I said elsewhere, before Allen came along they went 4-8 and 2-10. They are almost by definition going to be a low talent school given that Wyoming is truly in the middle of nowhere, has no cities, is the LEAST POPULATED STATE IN THE COUNTRY (including DC), and has a black population that is less than 1 percent of the total population.  Not many black players who are 2-3 star recruits are gonna wanna go to a unpopulated and freezing cold state far from home when they have other options. People need to factor this in.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Try reading; I know it's asking a lot, but try it...also, if you're going to take pot shots, then man up and respond directly to me, or--failing that--tag me in the post where you mention my username.

 

For example, I'm willing to be a man and respond directly to you: you've brutally missed the point of my post, and you've provided zero context to support your assertions.  You've distilled an entire discussion of the kid down to his completion percentage, and you've done no analysis and provided zero persuasive points to further the discussion.

 

So I challenge you: instead of taking shots at someone and spouting one-liners, do a scintilla of work and attempt to make your point.  Have the gumption to take me up on it?

 

I'm new to the board I didn't know you can @ on here