BadLandsMeanie Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hello, This will be long and maybe boring but hopefully not stupid. This will be about reading defenses and how the Bills might try to predict who a good QB will be which is apparently very hard. I woke up this morning with the thought in my head, “How can a veteran QB not know how to read a defense?” I woke up thinking about football and the Bills QB search and the draft and so on, because there is something wrong with me. I was probably dreaming about it too (because let’s be honest, there must be something wrong with me). Now everybody knows including me how hard it is for QB to learn to read defenses quickly because all you have to do is watch the games and maybe half of the starters can’t do it. And I bought a copy of an older NFL playbook off ebay one time and they are no picnic to understand. I never did get so I understood it fully. So my thinking has always been that it takes a special talent to be able to do that so fast. I watched the game film of the San Diego game and it was plain that Phillip Rivers could read the defense and what the coverages were going to be about one second after the ball was snapped. After one second everyone had made their moves and he (and I with the benefit of rewind and slow motion) could see what the defensive pass coverage was going to be. And Philip Rivers killed us with it. But for some reason this morning I was thinking how they could not know, and my line of thought then went along like this. Figure if a guy treats the NFL like he has or had a full time job like you and me. The team pretty much owns them from August to January. So that is 5 months and figure in some weeks of vacation I will call it 6 months of being with the team full and vacation time. If a man treats the other 6 months as a full time job, he would have five 8 or 9 hour days per week. I thought I would call a typical day being 2 hours working out and 6 hours of study. Say in one day he sits and analyzes two games of offensive plays. So he spends 3 hours on each game watching and studying and coming to understand the offensive plays in that game. There are about 130 offensive plays (65 each team) in a game. It might go slower at first but that gives him about 3 minutes per play to study it. This is not a heavy workload here we are just talking about 2 hours of fitness and then the rest of a regular workday sitting in an easy chair watching football plays. So if a man did that 26 weeks per year for 5 years, he would have seen 130 plays per day Times 5 days per week Times 26 weeks Times 5 years = 84,500 plays. The defenses are complicated but they are not that complicated that a man shouldn’t have a pretty good idea what is going on after having seen it Eighty Four Thousand times. And that doesn’t even count all the time they spend learning and being taught for all the months they are with the team. When I think about it like that, it doesn’t seem like a stupid question to wonder how in the world could somebody not understand how to read a defense after seeing 84,500 plays?? (not counting training camp and practice and all that). I don’t think you would have to be a genius. Do you? Next I think about Peyton Manning. Here is a guy who won a Superbowl when his body was failing him and his head was more or less held on to his neck by bolts. That guy could read a defense and he is known for doing his work and watching film. I hate to mention it, but Tom Brady is known for doing his work and watching film. So maybe it is not a coincidence and is a very important trait for a quarterback to treat his job like a full time job, like you and me have, and do his work every day. Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work. I have some hope that McBean will be successful picking up a guy like that because that is the sort of player they have been very focused on. I hope McBean have been very diligent looking very closely at each of the guys to see who is the one who got his homework done and took care of his responsibilities. That way they will have accurate information to go on come draft day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodman19 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 How can dumb people learn next to nothing after years in school? Lack of effort/poor teachers or just too dumb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Woodman19 said: How can dumb people learn next to nothing after years in school? Lack of effort/poor teachers or just too dumb. The only thing worse than dumb people is smart people with no common sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) Obviously some learn faster than others. Some learn their craft much more deeply and thoroughly than others. It comes down to a combination of these things I think: 1) Level of intelligence/mental capacity 2) Where/How/Who they are learning from 3) Person's desire to learn & effort put into it 4) Physical ability (how well they see the field, how well they sense pressure, how well they manage the pocket) In your own job/profession you may choose to show up and put in your time or you may choose to show up and actively work at becoming the very best person at your craft. If you have the desire to learn it as masterfully as possible, then you will spend every waking moment thinking about it and learning about it. Therefore you master it much more quickly. If you show up and just put in your time every day without that desire, you may never get really good at it. Edited January 10, 2018 by PolishDave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Wiz said: The only thing worse than dumb people is smart people with no common sense. That and dumb people who are arrogant because they think they're very intelligent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irv Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: That and dumb people who are arrogant because they think they're very intelligent. That's the pot calling the kettle black! Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Badthingsman said: That's the pot calling the kettle black! Ha! Coming from a guy who said Colton Schmidt is the reason we lost in Jax. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) Think about this too: In high school a player can be the best at their position based on physical talent alone. In college - physical ability still trumps intelligence by a lot, but intelligence starts to become a factor depending on the position In the pros - intelligence becomes a much more significant factor because everyone is physically gifted at every position and sometimes the schemes get more complicated So, in the pros, the elite players are the ones who have enough of both physical ability and mental capacity along with the desire to master their craft. Then they put in enough effort and become franchise guys. Some college guys simply aren't smart enough or have enough desire to make it a professional career. They aren't smart enough or too lazy. The NFL weeds them out unless their physical talent is so superior that it allows them to overcome lack of intelligence/desire. Edited January 10, 2018 by PolishDave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) Some have the ability to process the game at the college level but never can adjust to the schemes speed and level of play at the pro level. Don't think it has anything to do with preperation as it does simple ability. Just like accuracy but this is a tangible that can be seen at the college level.. However I stand by the thought process in the accuracy regard is you either have it or you don't. For QB's that make it to the pros you usually don't find out how a QB prospect is going to adjust to the pro game in regards to reading defenses and making the right call/adjustment until you already committed and allowed this QB to play the game for better or worse. Sometimes it takes a little bit for it all to settle down many times it just never happens... If there was a metric for detemring a QB ability to read and react to a defense I think there would be a lot less 1st rd busts at QB IMO Edited January 10, 2018 by ddaryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodman19 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 It's simplified when you aren't busy confusing them on QB fundamentals 101 too. If you didn't have to get them to count steps during a drop back, setting the feet and looking off the primary option, then reading the defense becomes more natural. In other words, draft a QB who is already fundamentally a QB and not an athlete you hope you can teach to be one and them teach them how to do the finer points like reading presnap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, The Wiz said: The only thing worse than dumb people is smart people with no common sense. I see you've met my brother in law 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdutton Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, PolishDave said: Obviously some learn faster than others. Some learn their craft much more deeply and thoroughly than others. It comes down to a combination of these things I think: 1) Level of intelligence/mental capacity 2) Where/How/Who they are learning from 3) Person's desire to learn & effort put into it 4) Physical ability (how well they see the field, how well they sense pressure, how well they manage the pocket) In your own job/profession you may choose to show up and put in your time or you may choose to show up and actively work at becoming the very best person at your craft. If you have the desire to learn it as masterfully as possible, then you will spend every waking moment thinking about it and learning about it. Therefore you master it much more quickly. If you show up and just put in your time every day without that desire, you may never get really good at it. Not mentioned in you list but maybe alluded to in #3: Passion. I coach a junior rifle team. I can tell you, someone who is passionate about the sport they love, will learn to overcome their physical and mental deficiencies, and will themselves to be better. Talent and intelligence is not enough to get it done. That is why people like Brady, who has an undersized NFL arm and average intelligence, is better than everyone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 How well was Brady reading the defense on the pick 6 we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: How well was Brady reading the defense on the pick 6 we got? Brady makes mistakes at times. Does not do them lots. Still number one QB for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 There are different levels/types of intelligence. A scientist or policy-maker may have a high IQ but may need time to analyze information at hand before moving forward. Meanwhile, with lives at stake, a surgeon has to be able to make good decisions quickly. The same is true of police officers, firemen, etc. Tyrod has shown repeatedly that he struggles to make proper decisions quickly. That does not mean that he is "dumb" -- just that the way in which his brain is wired, he is more calculating in his decision-making process than is required to be a successful QB at the NFL level. No one doubts Ryan Fitzpatrick's IQ -- but he often made poor decisions on the fly. At least he was usually quick in making those decisions (good or bad). After all, Jim Kelly wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed, but he was great at reading a defense and making quick (and usually "intelligent") decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 how about a 7 year vet? scouting report hard working kid that has improved every year, but it is unclear if he can play quarterback at the next level. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he is somewhat erratic as a passer. also does not show the consistent sound decision making to be an efficient quarterback greatest asset is his athleticism and he should be able to contribute immediately as a running back, receiver or return man. A terrific senior season, where he completed nearly 60% of his passes STRENGTHS Has excellent mobility and continually evades the rush while keeping his eyes downfield. Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes. Team leader and fierce WEAKNESSES Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: I see you've met my brother in law I just know a lot of Phds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I remember when someone posted Rex's real voluminous defensive playbook from his time with the Jets. I was paging through it and I know that my brain isn't wired to memorize and then recall all that on a moment's notice in a game. I think "reading" a defense is just as much a skill as is passing the ball. You need to have a part of your brain that's got a predictive analytics department in it. It's what makes Tom Brady special. It's why he's still shredding the defenses from predictable coordinators at 40. I'd go so far to say that's why some amazing college talent never cuts it at the NFL level while others flourish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I just know a lot of Phds. in chemical engineering !!! So you do know him. smart as hell but dumb as a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 (edited) When a college QB running the option is prancing through a total cupcake 60-0 win (10 times a year for a top 20 school), can't they at least set him up to sit back in the pocket and maybe learn to throw the ball like a real QB for possible NFL experience? I guess not, the 80,000 yahoos whooping it up like this is a huge brave win couldn't stand to see some experimentation and only win 45-0. Edited January 10, 2018 by row_33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts