How Can a 5 Year Vet QB NOT Know How To Read a Defense? A Different Viewpoint

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, Badthingsman said:

 

Quit trolling me bro'.  You man-love for me is very disturbing. 

 

It's not trolling...nothing I'm saying is false.  You literally and more than one time said Colton Schmidt is a main reason why we lost.

[Irv]

27 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's not trolling...nothing I'm saying is false.  You literally and more than one time said Colton Schmidt is a main reason why we lost.

 

No - I won't go on a date with you.

[Mr. WEO]

20 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

 

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So are you saying that it's simply a fact that TT didn't put in the time doing film study?  He didn't work as hard as even a regular Joe?

[BadLandsMeanie]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

So are you saying that it's simply a fact that TT didn't put in the time doing film study?  He didn't work as hard as even a regular Joe?

Well, you can read everything I wrote, and see that I did not say that.

I suppose one could "read into" what I said though. So I will clarify.

 

Mostly I wasn't even focused on Tyrod. I was more thinking of the future and being anxious that we will get another guy who can't get over the hump and get good at reading and reacting to a defensive coverage.

 

I do wonder how some QB's get "famous" for watching film all the time. And why a guy like Peyton Manning was said to be a "fanatic" just because he watched film all the time. I think it is like being a plumber who gets famous because he does plumbing all the time. I think that is just what they all should be doing. But  don't think they do because if they did, it wouldn't get so much attention when somebody does it.

 

On Tyrod, if I were him and I watched 6 hours of film a day 5 days a week during my off time, I certainly would let people know that. It isn't my fault that I don't know if he does or does not.

 

 

One thing that leads me to believe the he does not is this: There was an article by Kimberly Martin  in which Tyrod  compared himself to to guys like Rodgers and Carr who are also pretty mobile.

 

“They claim that we’re (himself and Cam Newton) not that accurate from the pocket. I’m not sure why,” Taylor says, before adding of Rodgers and Carr: “Even though they’re ‘mobile’ guys, they don’t necessarily take on the same criticism as others. It probably is unfair.”

 

So if you have a guy watching 5 years of film, 84,000 plays, who doesn't see the reason that those two are considered to be good pocket passers while he is not, what does that tell you?

 

It told me that at the very least, he doesn't understand the job. And personally I can't understand how a man could be watching lots of film and NOT see the things that they were doing better than he was.

 

Edited January 11, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie

[Jauronimo]

There are 5 - 8 QBs in the world that are any f#@$ing good at the position.  And you want to know why they all can't be elite with enough experience???

[BadLandsMeanie]

8 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

There are 5 - 8 QBs in the world that are any f#@$ing good at the position.  And you want to know why they all can't be elite with enough experience???

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

I'd say that number is about right for players that can play well, consistently, for more than a couple years.

[Jauronimo]

12 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

If its obvious then why did you ask in the first place and why did you make Proust look like the Dude in terms of brevity in the process of asking the obvious?

 

All the empirical evidence points to yes. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Well, you can read everything I wrote, and see that I did not say that.

I suppose one could "read into" what I said though. So I will clarify.

 

Mostly I wasn't even focused on Tyrod. I was more thinking of the future and being anxious that we will get another guy who can't get over the hump and get good at reading and reacting to a defensive coverage.

 

I do wonder how some QB's get "famous" for watching film all the time. And why a guy like Peyton Manning was said to be a "fanatic" just because he watched film all the time. I think it is like being a plumber who gets famous because he does plumbing all the time. I think that is just what they all should be doing. But  don't think they do because if they did, it wouldn't get so much attention when somebody does it.

 

On Tyrod, if I were him and I watched 6 hours of film a day 5 days a week during my off time, I certainly would let people know that. It isn't my fault that I don't know if he does or does not.

 

 

One thing that leads me to believe the he does not is this: There was an article by Kimberly Martin  in which Tyrod  compared himself to to guys like Rodgers and Carr who are also pretty mobile.

 

“They claim that we’re (himself and Cam Newton) not that accurate from the pocket. I’m not sure why,” Taylor says, before adding of Rodgers and Carr: “Even though they’re ‘mobile’ guys, they don’t necessarily take on the same criticism as others. It probably is unfair.”

 

So if you have a guy watching 5 years of film, 84,000 plays, who doesn't see the reason that those two are considered to be good pocket passers while he is not, what does that tell you?

 

It told me that at the very least, he doesn't understand the job. And personally I can't understand how a man could be watching lots of film and NOT see the things that they were doing better than he was.

 

 

You said it didn't take a genius, just a regular Joe who watches tons of film.  So it TT hasn't learned how to read an defense, you have to conclude he didn't put in the time watching the film.

 

Did I get something wrong?  This is what you are saying.  Or are you saying he did watch all that film, just any regular Joe would.....but he was just too dumb to learn to read defenses?  Which is it?

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

You have an impressive grasp of the obvious.

 

I didn't say it that way but yes, I am wondering if it is really true that only 5-8 people on the planet, can play the position competently.

 

I don't think the number is that low, but I think the concept is correct. 

 

Why don't I think the number is that low?   Tom Brady.    He's the luckiest athlete in the world.    He had less than the perfect physical skill set - no serious size, mediocre arm, no foot speed.   But he had brains, the right temperament, and he ended up with exactly the right coach for him.  They were a perfect match.   Anyplace, and he might have been a journeyman QB for 10 years, bouncing around the league, having a couple of good seasons.   Instead, he grew with Belichick, he took in everything Belichick had to teach him, he work his butt off, and he became Tom Brady.   

 

Favre too.   Wasn't the right fit in Atlanta, but in GB they nurtured him the right way, gave him some rope, and voila, HOF!

 

So there probably are a few guys who don't make it because they just didn't land in the right place at the right time.   Who are they?   I don't know, because they didn't land in the right place at the right time and therefore didn't blossom.   A guy like Blaine Gabbert, maybe.  Give him a couple of years behind Peyton with a good coach, maybe.  Heck, maybe Andy Dalton is two notches better playing for Andy Reed.   Even EJ, in the right circumstances.  Maybe Flacco.    

 

So I'd guess if there are 5-8 who are doing it, there may be as many as a half dozen more who are in the league but for whom the pieces didn't come together.   

 

And in any case, it's more than 5-8 IN THE WORLD.    There are guys in MLB and the NBA and playing soccer at elite levels with the combination of natural abilities that would have made them excellent QBs, if their childhood focus had been football instead of some other sport.  Take a guy like Chris Paul, watch the intelligence he plays with, the recognition and decisiveness.   He could be a QB.   I'm sure MLB has some.   Derek Jeter, for example.  

 

These people are elite.   That means there aren't many of them.   If your thesis were true, given how many guys want to play in the NFL, the league would be full of them.   The simple fact that there aren't a lot of these guys proves your thesis wrong.   They're elite, they stand alone for a reason, and the reason is that they have a unique combination of natural abilities most don't have, they've worked hard, they were this sport and they got the right opportunities.   

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 1/10/2018 at 2:29 PM, ShadyBillsFan said:

how about a 7 year vet? 

 

scouting report

• hard working kid that has improved every year, but it is unclear if he can play quarterback at the next level. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he is somewhat erratic as a passer. 
• also does not show the consistent sound decision making to be an efficient quarterback
• greatest asset is his athleticism and he should be able to contribute immediately as a running back, receiver or return man.
• A terrific senior season, where he completed nearly 60% of his passes

 

STRENGTHS

• Has excellent mobility and continually evades the rush while keeping his eyes downfield. Has above average arm strength and flashes the ability to fit the ball into tight windows on short to intermediate routes. Team leader and fierce 

WEAKNESSES

• Does not possess adequate height and too many of his passes are knocked down at the line. Sloppy footwork prevents him from stepping into throws making him an erratic passer. Locks onto receivers and often telegraphs his throws. Struggles breaking down coverage and makes too many ill-advised throws.

 

Is this a scouting report of JaMarcus Russell?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 1/10/2018 at 2:53 PM, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello,

This will be long and maybe boring but hopefully not stupid.

 

This will be about reading defenses and how the Bills might try to predict who a good QB will be which is apparently very hard.

I woke up this morning with the thought in my head, “How can a veteran QB not know how to read a defense?” I woke up thinking about football and the Bills QB search and the draft and so on, because there is something wrong with me. I was probably dreaming about it too (because let’s be honest, there must be something wrong with me).

 

Now everybody knows including me how hard it is for QB to learn to read defenses quickly because all you have to do is watch the games and maybe half of the starters can’t do it. And I bought a copy of an older NFL playbook off ebay one time and they are no picnic to understand. I never did get so I understood it fully.

So my thinking has always been that it takes a special talent to be able to do that so fast. I watched the game film of the San Diego game and it was plain that Phillip Rivers could read the defense and what the coverages were going to be about one second after the ball was snapped. After one second everyone had made their moves and he (and I with the benefit of rewind and slow motion) could see what the defensive pass coverage was going to be. And Philip Rivers killed us with it.

 

But for some reason this morning I was thinking how they could not know, and my line of thought then went along like this.

 

Figure if a guy treats the NFL like he has or had a full time job like you and me. The team pretty much owns them from August to January. So that is 5 months and figure in some weeks of vacation I will call it 6 months of being with the team full and vacation time.

 

If a man treats the other 6 months as a full time job, he would have five 8 or 9 hour days per week. I thought I would call a typical day being 2 hours working out and 6 hours of study. Say in one day he sits and analyzes two games of offensive plays. So he spends 3 hours on each game watching and studying and coming to understand the offensive plays in that game. There are about 130 offensive plays (65 each team) in a game. It might go slower at first but that gives him about 3 minutes per play to study it.

 

This is not a heavy workload here we are just talking about 2 hours of fitness and then the rest of a regular workday sitting in an easy chair watching football plays.

So if a man did that 26 weeks per year for 5 years, he would have seen 130 plays per day Times 5 days per week Times 26 weeks Times 5 years = 84,500 plays.

The defenses are complicated but they are not that complicated that a man shouldn’t have a pretty good idea what is going on after having seen it Eighty Four Thousand times.

 

And that doesn’t even count all the time they spend learning and being taught for all the months they are with the team.

 

When I think about it like that, it doesn’t seem like a stupid question to wonder how in the world could somebody not understand how to read a defense after seeing 84,500 plays?? (not counting training camp and practice and all that).

 

I don’t think you would have to be a genius. Do you?

 

Next I think about Peyton Manning. Here is a guy who won a Superbowl when his body was failing him and his head was more or less held on to his neck by bolts. That guy could read a defense and he is known for doing his work and watching film. I hate to mention it, but Tom Brady is known for doing his work and watching film. So maybe it is not a coincidence and is a very important trait for a quarterback to treat his job like a full time job, like you and me have, and do his work every day.

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

I have some hope that McBean will be successful picking up a guy like that because that is the sort of player they have been very focused on. I hope McBean have been very diligent looking very closely at each of the guys to see who is the one who got his homework done and took care of his responsibilities. That way they will have accurate information to go on come draft day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the problem is reading the defense you’re playing, in the game, real time,  in less than a second. That’s a unique skill/trait/ability.

 

I think much of it has to do with how you think and how quickly you process 3 dimensional spatial information. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You said it didn't take a genius, just a regular Joe who watches tons of film.  So it TT hasn't learned how to read an defense, you have to conclude he didn't put in the time watching the film.

 

Did I get something wrong?  This is what you are saying.  Or are you saying he did watch all that film, just any regular Joe would.....but he was just too dumb to learn to read defenses?  Which is it?

I think I mentioned that my anxiety isn't about Tyrod. It is about the next guy. Another guy we have to wait 2 or 3 years to see if he will become good.

I don't think JP Losman studied film. 

 

So I don't want the BUffalo Bills to have anything to do with a guy who is not student of the game. I don't care who he is, or how athletic he is, I don't want him. I am sick of guys who can't do the mental part of the game.

 

As for Tyrod, I don't know if he studied film or not. But let me ask you, what did it look like?? Did he look like he has been watching film over an over an studying defenses for the last 7 years? I sure as fork didn't look like it to me. 

 

Combine that with the things he said about not seeing the different between himself and Rodgers, I don't think you would call it stupidity, but something isn't right there.

 

So, if I could bet somebody a thousand dollars if Tyrod Taylor has spent 6 hours a day watching film for 26 weeks each year for the last 7 years, I would take the bet. I would say no way. But I can't know for sure.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

21 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think I mentioned that my anxiety isn't about Tyrod. It is about the next guy. Another guy we have to wait 2 or 3 years to see if he will become good.

I don't think JP Losman studied film. 

 

So I don't want the BUffalo Bills to have anything to do with a guy who is not student of the game. I don't care who he is, or how athletic he is, I don't want him. I am sick of guys who can't do the mental part of the game.

 

As for Tyrod, I don't know if he studied film or not. But let me ask you, what did it look like?? Did he look like he has been watching film over an over an studying defenses for the last 7 years? I sure as fork didn't look like it to me. 

 

Combine that with the things he said about not seeing the different between himself and Rodgers, I don't think you would call it stupidity, but something isn't right there.

 

So, if I could bet somebody a thousand dollars if Tyrod Taylor has spent 6 hours a day watching film for 26 weeks each year for the last 7 years, I would take the bet. I would say no way. But I can't know for sure.

 

 

 

If only a handful of QBs can learn to read defense so well by watching film (by your estimate), why do you think an average Joe who comes to work every day will be one of those few QBs?

[BadLandsMeanie]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think the number is that low, but I think the concept is correct. 

 

Why don't I think the number is that low?   Tom Brady.    He's the luckiest athlete in the world.    He had less than the perfect physical skill set - no serious size, mediocre arm, no foot speed.   But he had brains, the right temperament, and he ended up with exactly the right coach for him.  They were a perfect match.   Anyplace, and he might have been a journeyman QB for 10 years, bouncing around the league, having a couple of good seasons.   Instead, he grew with Belichick, he took in everything Belichick had to teach him, he work his butt off, and he became Tom Brady.   

 

Favre too.   Wasn't the right fit in Atlanta, but in GB they nurtured him the right way, gave him some rope, and voila, HOF!

 

So there probably are a few guys who don't make it because they just didn't land in the right place at the right time.   Who are they?   I don't know, because they didn't land in the right place at the right time and therefore didn't blossom.   A guy like Blaine Gabbert, maybe.  Give him a couple of years behind Peyton with a good coach, maybe.  Heck, maybe Andy Dalton is two notches better playing for Andy Reed.   Even EJ, in the right circumstances.  Maybe Flacco.    

 

So I'd guess if there are 5-8 who are doing it, there may be as many as a half dozen more who are in the league but for whom the pieces didn't come together.   

 

And in any case, it's more than 5-8 IN THE WORLD.    There are guys in MLB and the NBA and playing soccer at elite levels with the combination of natural abilities that would have made them excellent QBs, if their childhood focus had been football instead of some other sport.  Take a guy like Chris Paul, watch the intelligence he plays with, the recognition and decisiveness.   He could be a QB.   I'm sure MLB has some.   Derek Jeter, for example.  

 

These people are elite.   That means there aren't many of them.   If your thesis were true, given how many guys want to play in the NFL, the league would be full of them.   The simple fact that there aren't a lot of these guys proves your thesis wrong.   They're elite, they stand alone for a reason, and the reason is that they have a unique combination of natural abilities most don't have, they've worked hard, they were this sport and they got the right opportunities.   

 

12 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I think the problem is reading the defense you’re playing, in the game, real time,  in less than a second. That’s a unique skill/trait/ability.

 

I think much of it has to do with how you think and how quickly you process 3 dimensional spatial information. 

 

 

I will try to reply here to everybody though I have only quoted two. 

 

I don't know the answer. I think it is a reasonable question though. 

 

We don't like Tom Brady but I am put to mind of something he said quite recently. He said "If you are going to compete against me, you are going to have to give up your life to do it". And he was talking mainly about how much studying he does and how much film he watches.

 

He was exaggerating a bit I think because he does have a wife and family. But I think he means give up his life like a young doctor or businessperson, or lawyer. or anyone who puts in a lot of extra time at their job gives up a good slice of their life to do that.

 

I do think somebody has to have an ability to process all that information in a second. But I also think somebody who is extremely well prepared has a very good idea what the possibilities are and can narrow them down, before the ball is snapped.

 

I also think the league has created this circumstance by changing the rules to heavily emphasize the passing game to make the games more exciting for the fans. 

 

I think that has backfired to some extent because now only a few teams have a realistic chance at competing because so few teams have QBs who can run the offenses. And teams are very bad at predicting who warrants the investment in time and training to become that sort of QB.

 

I have thought of a test of my hypothesis. If they had offensive coordinators play in scrimmages to see if they can run their own offense. 

Obviously you cant hit them or even expect that they can make the throws.

 

But if the coordinators could read the defenses and pick out the open man, that would go a long way towards supporting the idea that watching film and studying and truly understanding the game, is a very bog part of being able to think fast enough to get the ball going where it should go.

 

And if they were unable to do it, then it would supports the idea that it takes a very special mental ability to do it.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

 

 

I will try to reply here to everybody though I have only quoted two. 

 

I don't know the answer. I think it is a reasonable question though. 

 

We don't like Tom Brady but I am put to mind of something he said quite recently. He said "If you are going to compete against me, you are going to have to give up your life to do it". And he was talking mainly about how much studying he does and how much film he watches.

 

He was exaggerating a bit I think because he does have a wife and family. But I think he means give up his life like a young doctor or businessperson, or lawyer. or anyone who puts in a lot of extra time at their job gives up a good slice of their life to do that.

 

I do think somebody has to have an ability to process all that information in a second. But I also think somebody who is extremely well prepared has a very good idea what the possibilities are and can narrow them down, before the ball is snapped.

 

I also think the league has created this circumstance by changing the rules to heavily emphasize the passing game to make the games more exciting for the fans. 

 

I think that has backfired to some extent because now only a few teams have a realistic chance at competing because so few teams have QBs who can run the offenses. And teams are very bad at predicting who warrants the investment in time and training to become that sort of QB.

 

I have thought of a test of my hypothesis. If they had offensive coordinators play in scrimmages to see if they can run their own offense. 

Obviously you cant hit them or even expect that they can make the throws.

 

But if the coordinators could read the defenses and pick out the open man, that would go a long way towards supporting the idea that watching film and studying and truly understanding the game, is a very bog part of being able to think fast enough to get the ball going where it should go.

 

And if they were unable to do it, then it would supports the idea that it takes a very special mental ability to do it.

 

 

 

You have already said an average Joe can master this with enough film study.  If this was true, more than 5-8 guys would be as successful.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

You have already said an average Joe can master this with enough film study.  If this was true, more than 5-8 guys would be as successful.

I think he's more right than a lot of people might want to admit. There are countless examples of skills and talents that average people can become proficient (and even excel) in with enormous expenditures of time and energy...it's just that most people don't have the steel for it.