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The path to the Playoffs


PrimeTime101

Playoff Bound?  

131 members have voted

  1. 1. Does the Bills get to 9-7 and make it to the playoffs?

    • Yes
    • No
    • Yes they make it to 9-7 but loose the tie breaker.


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3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The eye test tells me that the Bills lose that game even without the INTs. Taylor was strip sacked for a TD in that game as well. He was a mediocrity today as well, just less mediocre than Smith. Rivers on the other hand is a different story. The Bills were hardly going to be a favorite in that game, nor should they have been. The decision wasn't incompetent as it was desperate. Taylor leftvthem with no option. He stunk in the Jets game as well, though many want to give him a pass there for some reason. He had one on one coverage and saw the same 5 man rush on most plays, yet couldn't and wouldn't beat it. He was BAD. Same in the Saints game . They won today because the defense did a good job albeit vs a struggling KC team that hasn't looked good in a month. Sticking with NP would have been incompetent after that game, but trying it wasn't. What was the alternative really? Lose by less points? What good does that do? You have to try to win each game. 

 

Just now, Peace Frog said:

Completely agree with the above post.  Even if Taylor had started against the Chargers, we still would've lost.

Agreed and Ageed

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If you really want to analyze it, go here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

According to that, if the Ravens lose Monday night and we beat Indy and Miami twice, we have a 69% chance of making the playoffs

 

Edited by Norwood for Wall of Fame
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4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The eye test tells me that the Bills lose that game even without the INTs. Taylor was strip sacked for a TD in that game as well. He was a mediocrity today as well, just less mediocre than Smith. Rivers on the other hand is a different story. The Bills were hardly going to be a favorite in that game, nor should they have been. The decision wasn't incompetent as it was desperate. Taylor leftvthem with no option. He stunk in the Jets game as well, though many want to give him a pass there for some reason. He had one on one coverage and saw the same 5 man rush on most plays, yet couldn't and wouldn't beat it. He was BAD. Same in the Saints game . They won today because the defense did a good job albeit vs a struggling KC team that hasn't looked good in a month. Sticking with NP would have been incompetent after that game, but trying it wasn't. What was the alternative really? Lose by less points? What good does that do? You have to try to win each game. 

"losing by less points" means you were closer to winning by more points.. what in the ????

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1 minute ago, Norwood for Wall of Fame said:

Great way to add something supportive to this topic and Thank You!

 

So there you have it. We go 9-7 with beating Miami twice and Indy we have a 50% chance of going to the playoffs.

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22 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

the national media had a crystal ball too

really? half the national media agreed with the decision when it was made then when it went bad they changed tune.

I am actually surprised with how close this poll is. keep up with the votes guys :D

 

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53 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

"losing by less points" means you were closer to winning by more points.. what in the ????

Sure it does, but close doesn't matter. The risk of playing NP was worth it as it might lead to the offense scoring more points . It didn't happen, but playing Tyrod and perhaps losing by a few less points than if NP played poorly was a risk they had to take. They thought he would play well. 

40 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

At worst I see Baltimore finishing 3-3.

 

Wins over: Texans, Colts, Browns

 

Possible losses to Lions, Steelers, Bengals

 

Even if they close like this we would likely be out unless in addition to sweeping Miami and beating the Colts...we would need to steal a win from NE.

If Baltimore goes 3-3 they would have 8 wins. If they go 9-7 ( probably the Bills best possible finish) it would come down to some tiebreaker. Why would the Bills likely be out in case of such a tie? Just curious 

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36 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

really? half the national media agreed with the decision when it was made then when it went bad they changed tune.

I am actually surprised with how close this poll is. keep up with the votes guys :D

 

The national media doesn't really pay attention to Tyrod Taylor's play or the Bills except for a few highlights and box scores. 

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Assuming our main worry is a tie with Baltimore and that our record ends up at 9-7 in a two way tie (for a three way tie there are two many options on who the other team is to figure it out right now):

- They are 5-5 which means they will go 4-2 in their last six games.

- They play Houston (tonight), Pittsburgh, Detroit, Cleveland, Ind, Cin

- Since we don't play them, the next tiebreaker is division record.

- Both of us are currently 4-3 in the AFC. The rest of our games are against AFC teams so our conference record will be 7-5 for us to be at 9-7. Baltimore must lose two games to AFC teams (unless of course they lose three games but that changes all of the above assumptions that we both get to 9-7).

- Likely one of the losses will be to Pittsburgh.

= The next tiebreaker is common opponents.

- We both play Miami (us twice), Cincinnati (them twice), Oakland, Indianapolis. I.e. we have five games against common opponents. 

- If we split with both NE and Miami, that is much worse than the more likely scenario of us beating Miami twice and losing to NE twice. Same thing with losing to Indianapolis but beating NE one time to get to our 9-7 record. Since both Baltimore and the Bills play Miami and Indianapolis, they are critical to our common opponent record.

- If we beat Miami twice and Indianapolis, our common opponent record will be 4-1 (two over Miami, W over Ind and Oakland).

- Currently, Baltimore is 3-0 in common opponents (W over Cin, Oak, Miami). So, their other, non-Pittsburgh loss must be to either Cin or Ind. If so, then we are both tied for common opponents.

- Next tiebreaker after common opponents is strength of victories. As of now, and including our future wins against Miami twice and Ind, our wins are against teams with 40 wins. Baltimore, after adding in wins against Houston, Detroit, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, are against teams with 37 wins (if they lost to Cincinnati and beat Indianapolis instead, their wins would be against teams with 35 wins).

 

Bottom line, we need to win the games we're supposed to win and need Baltimore to lose to either Cincinnati or to Indianapolis. 

 

 

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Baltimore has been inconsistent, definitely lousy on offense. We are pretty similar teams right now. We can reasonably expect them to finish 9-7 given their schedule, but 8-8 is equally possible - and the same can be said for us. 

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5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

The path now is now more possible because of this win.

 

Beat Miami twice and Indy. Puts us at 9-7. Here is the key question. Does 9-7 make it to the playoffs this year? Can this team clean up Miami twice and beat Indy?

As silly as this sounds my thought is yes on both. Its been a long time that we have seen a clear possible path to playoffs.. do we get there? your thoughts

The Pats play the Steelers in a couple of weeks that will decide the AFC #1 seed.  If they knock off the steelers, then the season finale may be up for grabs. If we are 9-6 at that time, then the Bills will be going full blast at the patriots in Week 17

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1 hour ago, ganesh said:

The Pats play the Steelers in a couple of weeks that will decide the AFC #1 seed.  If they knock off the steelers, then the season finale may be up for grabs. If we are 9-6 at that time, then the Bills will be going full blast at the patriots in Week 17

 

We play NE in Week 16.

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7 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

I will feel a TON better about Buffalo's 9-7 odds if the Ravens go on a losing streak.

This.  The biggest obstacle besides being the Bills, is the Ravens who have a very favorable schedule.  SAN Diego could be a problem if they kee winning and the chiefs win the division as well.  They hold the tie breaker over us as well.

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6 hours ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

- Since we don't play them, the next tiebreaker is division record.

- Both of us are currently 4-3 in the AFC. The rest of our games are against AFC teams so our conference record will be 7-5 for us to be at 9-7. Baltimore must lose two games to AFC teams (unless of course they lose three games but that changes all of the above assumptions that we both get to 9-7).

 

 

Great breakdown CA OC, but I think you missed one crucial game that kind of blows all the tiebreaker stuff up. Any tied scenario, such as 9-7 must include a win against Detroit for Baltimore if we are to win a tiebreaker against them. If we both end up 9-7 but they lose to Detroit that would automatically mean they have a better conference record then us and no need to go to common games/SOV tiebreakers.

 

That is not to say we should hope for a Baltimore victory over Detroit. Just the opposite. Hope they lose that game, the Pitt game and any other loss will give us the wild card outright.

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