Just drafting a good QB might not be enough

[Big Turk]

I'm not saying the Bills shouldnt take a QB in the draft as high as possible. They should. I'm just saying it might not be enough to be much better than they are right now initially...maybe similar to the Sabres with Eichel...

 

Look at some teams who have their franchise QB and how they are faring...

 

Baltimore and Dallas are 5-5 with the Cowboys getting blown out the last two games. Atlanta isn't that great this year at 5-4 despite tons of talent.  San Diego is 4-6 regardless of how awesome they looked yesterday against us. Oakland is 4-6 and looks lost. Washington is 4-6 with Cousins putting up huge numbers week in and week out. Brees has been putting up huge numbers for years and is a first ballot HOF lock  but had gone several seasons of being .500 or worse before this season. Tampa Bay has been struggling badly even with Winston and is 4-6...Colts have been mediocre to bad even with Luck in the lineup the last couple season's...Panthers were bad last year with Newton...Bengals are 4-6 with Dalton...Ravens are 5-5 with Flacco and while probably will get the wildcard due to their soft remaining schedule are certainly nobody's idea of a good team.

 

Its in large part about the QB in the NFL but its not ALL about the QB. There are a lot of instances of teams having good QBs and still not being very good record wise...

 

People think drafting a first round QB is going to solve everything but it isn't. Even if he is really good it likely won't as you can see above...

Edited November 20, 2017 by matter2003

[Marty McFly]

Thanks to McDumbass the needs for this team are expanded. We now need a new: OC, QB, OT, OG, DT, DT, MLB, SLB, CB, AND NCB. Also a rookie RB to mold in Shadys image for the future.

[Tatonka68]

Might not solve everything, but is the first thing that should be solved. A car is worthless without an engine. I would trade up to get a QB regardless of cost. Trade the whole damn draft if needed. Enough of hand me down or lower grade QB's. I don't care if the Bills loose in 2018 also. Just get a franchise QB I can Billlieve in.

[corta765]

I understand your rational and partially agree. When things are bad or teams are bad its hard to see the positives that you can build with moving forward though. Your right a QB cannot do it all himself although I would also argue he can do a lot to carry a team and elevate the play of those around him.

 

Looking at the Bills objectively I see the following strengths and weaknesses on each side:

 

Offense Strength: Interior O Line (Dawkins, Wood, Incognito), TE (Clay/O'Leary/Thomas), RB (for now as long as McCoy is healthy and here)

Offensive Weakness: QB, O Line Tackles (Unless Glenn magically is healthy all season) , WR (although if Benjamin is decent and Zay keeps improving then they just need a WR#2)

 

Defensive Strength: White at CB, Poyer/Hyde SAF

Weakness: DT, DE depth, Depth at CB after White, the entire LB core.

 

Realistically they probably fill about half of those needs in the offseason. Lets say in draft they get the new QB, DT, LB, and a new LT/RT that helps decently to plug some big holes. FA perhaps they hit on another guy or two that helps at CB and LB things don't look too bad and they look similar to other rising teams. Almost every team has holes regardless of how good the key is the Bills filling those and finding the right QB.

 

Now whether they will get this right? That is the million dollar question and I would say this offseason is paramount to how successful McDerment and Beane are long term.

[corta765]

8 minutes ago, Marty McFly said:

Thanks to McDumbass the needs for this team are expanded. We now need a new: OC, QB, OT, OG, DT, DT, MLB, SLB, CB, AND NCB. Also a rookie RB to mold in Shadys image for the future.

 

Realistically this off season they should fill in the draft QB, DT, MLB, and OT. Figure in FA they get SLB and CB, they are left needing OG/DT/NCB plus your RB in Shady's mold although these days you can find RB's in rounds 4-6 #kareemhunt so I wouldn't overdraft for that unless its Barkley. That fills a decent amount of the needs while still needing some help but thats similar to everyone. To me the big key is who the QB is and fixing the middle of the defense which is being run/passed over badly.

 

For the record I have zero clue if the needs I have filled or happen its just best case hypothetical bs...

[BrooklynBills]

22 minutes ago, Marty McFly said:

Thanks to McDumbass the needs for this team are expanded. We now need a new: OC, QB, OT, OG, DT, DT, MLB, SLB, CB, AND NCB. Also a rookie RB to mold in Shadys image for the future.

We needed all those things before McDermott arrived.

[RyanC883]

21 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

We needed all those things before McDermott arrived.

 

exactly.  I don't see how McD is getting blamed for the teams lack of talent.  All the talent that was shipped away (minus Marcell) was replaced with talent of equal (albeit not top caliber) strenght.  Plus some draft picks.  Overall, McD's moves have the team better prepared for the future than going w/ the status quo.  Biggest question is why the heck did he hire Dennison, and will he can him at the end of the season.  

[PromoTheRobot]

44 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Might not solve everything, but is the first thing that should be solved. A car is worthless without an engine. I would trade up to get a QB regardless of cost. Trade the whole damn draft if needed. Enough of hand me down or lower grade QB's. I don't care if the Bills loose in 2018 also. Just get a franchise QB I can Billlieve in.

How would you even know you have a good QB when he's surrounded by garbage? 

[BillsFan130]

Oh they are so far away. They probably have the worst defence and bottom 3 offence in the league as of now. 

 

This team isn't even close to being good

Edited November 20, 2017 by billsfan11

[jaybee]

16 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Oh they are so far away. They probably have the worst defence and bottom 3 offence in the league as of now. 

 

This team isn't even close to being good

 

Thank you.  I am much smarter after reading that in-depth analysis.  

[BillsFan130]

10 minutes ago, jaybee said:

 

Thank you.  I am much smarter after reading that in-depth analysis.  

The thread was drafting a QB might not be good enough. And I said in other words, no it wont be good enough because their team is awful minus the QB position.

 

I didn't know I had to provide in depth analysis every time I contribute a post relevant to the question

Edited November 20, 2017 by billsfan11

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Realistically this off season they should fill in the draft QB, DT, MLB, and OT. Figure in FA they get SLB and CB, they are left needing OG/DT/NCB plus your RB in Shady's mold although these days you can find RB's in rounds 4-6 #kareemhunt so I wouldn't overdraft for that unless its Barkley. That fills a decent amount of the needs while still needing some help but thats similar to everyone. To me the big key is who the QB is and fixing the middle of the defense which is being run/passed over badly.

 

For the record I have zero clue if the needs I have filled or happen its just best case hypothetical bs...

 

Realistically, that's not happening.  QBs, DTs , and OTs are positions that generally take 2-3 seasons for the prospects to become decent, and probably another year for the good ones to separate themselves from the pack.  These are much more complex positions in the pros than in college, and all involve learning about the quirks of individual opposition players, so the learning curve is longer than other positions.  If these guys aren't taken in the first or second rounds, it will likely take them longer to come up to speed.   LBer is really the only one of those positions that could be expected to be filled adequately by a talented rookie. 

 

More importantly, how many positions can be filled, theoretically at least, through the draft and through FA depends upon who's available.   The number and quality of players at specific positions vary.  Some drafts produce more OLers or WRs than others.  The same with FA.   Teams that are perennial winners like NE, Pitt, GB, Philly, Minnesota, and KC tend to draft for talent at the top of the draft and more for need in the middle of the draft.  They try to maintain a pool of talented younger players around a core of key veterans.

 

The Bills are too busy shuffling their rosters to please their latest HC du jour to worry about building up either a core of key veterans or a pool of talented younger players.  They're all scrambling to fill holes they've created themselves.

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Might not solve everything, but is the first thing that should be solved. A car is worthless without an engine. I would trade up to get a QB regardless of cost. Trade the whole damn draft if needed. Enough of hand me down or lower grade QB's. I don't care if the Bills loose in 2018 also. Just get a franchise QB I can Billlieve in.

Yup....it’s gonna be at least a 3 year rebuild either way so we might as well bite the bullet this year with trading up for the quarterback... then next year when our team craps the bed because we still have so many holes, we can trade out of a top five pick for a kings ransom ... that is how this team needs to be built imo

Edited November 20, 2017 by JaCrispy

[GunnerBill]

Priority list:

 

1. Quarterback;

2. Quarterback;

3. Quarterback;

 

And I don't mean draft 3 before anyone take that.  I just mean it is by far and away the most important priority for the team.  Once we have the Quarterback THEN and only THEN should they worry about what to do next.  

 

But... as this is just a few fans spitballing on a forum.... I wouldn't spend a single pick in the first 4 rounds this year that wasn't used for the QB on anything other than linemen for both sides.  We have a major need on the D-line.  Pass rusher and interior enforcer are musts.  On the O-Line we need a center (I'm actually in favour of putting Groy in for the rest of the year and evaluating him - Wood has been awful) and if this situation with Cordy lingers much longer then maybe we need a left tackle too.  I'd kick Dion inside to LG and flip Richie, who has been a nice pick up for us but whose best years are behind him, to RG for the final year of his deal. At RT why not get McDermott on the field at this stage and see if he is any part of the answer?  Otherwise I think it is a potential FA target spot.  

 

Hopefully KB is healthy next year, one of the few positive of the last 3 weeks is the way Zay has played.  His confidence is back and that hand catch he made across the middle from Tyrod yesterday was outstanding. They will likely keep Holmes as a STer and backup WR and I'd be in favour of keeping Deonte too.  Take a shot on a late round guy by all means but don't waste early resource on a receiver in 2018.  

 

I suspect they will take a linebacker high but I wouldn't.... I'd look for a FA piece, get Milano out there for the rest of this year and take another late round guy in 2018.  I'd extend EJ Gaines for the right money and roll with our current secondary.  We are not getting killed by big outside receivers... we are getting killed by big guys coming out of the slot against Leaonard Johnson.  That is what the Saints did with Thomas and that is what the Chargers did with Allen yesterday too.  So we need to find a better nickel but the outside guys and the safeties are still playing okay... though Poyer apart not quite as well as they were early.  

 

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

Might not solve everything, but is the first thing that should be solved. A car is worthless without an engine. I would trade up to get a QB regardless of cost. Trade the whole damn draft if needed. Enough of hand me down or lower grade QB's. I don't care if the Bills loose in 2018 also. Just get a franchise QB I can Billlieve in.

 

Yep.  Trying to fit pieces around a low-end QB hasn't worked for 20 and isn't ever going to work.

 

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Priority list:

 

1. Quarterback;

2. Quarterback;

3. Quarterback;

 

And I don't mean draft 3 before anyone take that.  I just mean it is by far and away the most important priority for the team.  Once we have the Quarterback THEN and only THEN should they worry about what to do next.  

 

But... as this is just a few fans spitballing on a forum.... I wouldn't spend a single pick in the first 4 rounds this year that wasn't used for the QB on anything other than linemen for both sides.  We have a major need on the D-line.  Pass rusher and interior enforcer are musts.  On the O-Line we need a center (I'm actually in favour of putting Groy in for the rest of the year and evaluating him - Wood has been awful) and if this situation with Cordy lingers much longer then maybe we need a left tackle too.  I'd kick Dion inside to LG and flip Richie, who has been a nice pick up for us but whose best years are behind him, to RG for the final year of his deal. At RT why not get McDermott on the field at this stage and see if he is any part of the answer?  Otherwise I think it is a potential FA target spot.  

 

Hopefully KB is healthy next year, one of the few positive of the last 3 weeks is the way Zay has played.  His confidence is back and that hand catch he made across the middle from Tyrod yesterday was outstanding. They will likely keep Holmes as a STer and backup WR and I'd be in favour of keeping Deonte too.  Take a shot on a late round guy by all means but don't waste early resource on a receiver in 2018.  

 

I suspect they will take a linebacker high but I wouldn't.... I'd look for a FA piece, get Milano out there for the rest of this year and take another late round guy in 2018.  I'd extend EJ Gaines for the right money and roll with our current secondary.  We are not getting killed by big outside receivers... we are getting killed by big guys coming out of the slot against Leaonard Johnson.  That is what the Saints did with Thomas and that is what the Chargers did with Allen yesterday too.  So we need to find a better nickel but the outside guys and the safeties are still playing okay... though Poyer apart not quite as well as they were early.  

 

This.  Totally agree.  Finding a good QB should be our main focus, every year until we acquire one.  Other than that, the OL and DL should where we allocate our resources this offseason.  We keep getting punched in the mouth with no answer or fight.....imo, due to lack of talent.  Our DTs are backups (minus Kyle but he should retire and enjoy his family).  Our LBs are backups (or DL posing as LBs).  Lb is a spot I also feel we could wait on in the draft but mostly due to the talent level in this class. As of now, FA LBs might be the best route.  We can’t fix all the holes this year as there are too many.  Build the trenches and hopefully land our QB

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Yep.  Trying to fit pieces around a low-end QB hasn't worked for 20 and isn't ever going to work.

 

I agree, although I think OP has a pretty valid point as well. This team needs a solid 10-15+ new pieces and two years minimum to get anywhere productive, so I wouldn't get too riled up calling for another coaching staff change at this point...on with the rebuild.

[corta765]

34 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Realistically, that's not happening.  QBs, DTs , and OTs are positions that generally take 2-3 seasons for the prospects to become decent, and probably another year for the good ones to separate themselves from the pack.  These are much more complex positions in the pros than in college, and all involve learning about the quirks of individual opposition players, so the learning curve is longer than other positions.  If these guys aren't taken in the first or second rounds, it will likely take them longer to come up to speed.   LBer is really the only one of those positions that could be expected to be filled adequately by a talented rookie. 

 

More importantly, how many positions can be filled, theoretically at least, through the draft and through FA depends upon who's available.   The number and quality of players at specific positions vary.  Some drafts produce more OLers or WRs than others.  The same with FA.   Teams that are perennial winners like NE, Pitt, GB, Philly, Minnesota, and KC tend to draft for talent at the top of the draft and more for need in the middle of the draft.  They try to maintain a pool of talented younger players around a core of key veterans.

 

The Bills are too busy shuffling their rosters to please their latest HC du jour to worry about building up either a core of key veterans or a pool of talented younger players.  They're all scrambling to fill holes they've created themselves.

 

Agree although NFL coaches and GMs basically expect that if you draft round 1 that player is starting and hopefully one of your round 2/3 picks sees action regularly. So I was just going off that philosophy that the Bills out of 6 picks in the Top 90 can get 2-3 true starters and 1-2 solid players who see time regularly. Frankly if they can't get that it will set back whatever they think they are building now. And whoever is drafted QB better be ready to go come the opener because fans and media will not give them time.

 

My greatest disappointment organizationally with Rex's hire was how much they undid just because of him. Nigel Bradham may not be an All Pro but he was a very good LB, Schwartz had that unit playing very well and in unison, and in general they had a good pool on defense of vets and young guys like Bradham & Gilmore. 

[KD in CA]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I agree, although I think OP has a pretty valid point as well. This team needs a solid 10-15+ new pieces and two years minimum to get anywhere productive, so I wouldn't get too riled up calling for another coaching staff change at this point...on with the rebuild.

 

Oh, God no.   Those already calling for coaches to be fired ten games into their regime must want to see yet another roster purge with another new staff.

 

I don't know why people can't or won't see that every new GM/coaching combo is going to reinvent the team they way they think it should be done.  Every single change comes with a new 3 year plan.   Change your coach, the plan starts back at zero.  That's why Gilmore wasn't signed.  That's why Dareus and Watkins were traded.  That's why Peterman got a start.  Clearly these guys are implementing their 3 year plan by purging guys they don't see fitting long term and planning for how to fill those 10-15 new piece they need over the next couple years.

 

The only position that can truly accelerate the 3 year plan is QB.  If you find the QB, you can improve more quickly.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Agree although NFL coaches and GMs basically expect that if you draft round 1 that player is starting and hopefully one of your round 2/3 picks sees action regularly. So I was just going off that philosophy that the Bills out of 6 picks in the Top 90 can get 2-3 true starters and 1-2 solid players who see time regularly. Frankly if they can't get that it will set back whatever they think they are building now. And whoever is drafted QB better be ready to go come the opener because fans and media will not give them time.

 

My greatest disappointment organizationally with Rex's hire was how much they undid just because of him. Nigel Bradham may not be an All Pro but he was a very good LB, Schwartz had that unit playing very well and in unison, and in general they had a good pool on defense of vets and young guys like Bradham & Gilmore. 

Loved Bradham personally. He was phenomenal that one season under Schwartz.

Just now, KD in CA said:

 

Oh, God no.   Those already calling for coaches to be fired ten games into their regime must want to see yet another roster purge with another new staff.

 

I don't know why people can't or won't see that every new GM/coaching combo is going to reinvent the team they way they think it should be done.  Every single change comes with a new 3 year plan.   Change your coach, the plan starts back at zero.  That's why Gilmore wasn't signed.  That's why Dareus and Watkins were traded.  That's why Peterman got a start.  Clearly these guys are implementing their 3 year plan by purging guys they don't see fitting long term and planning for how to fill those 10-15 new piece they need over the next couple years.

 

The only position that can truly accelerate the 3 year plan is QB.  If you find the QB, you can improve more quickly.

Yup. This is how I feel...it was always going to be painful, and starting 5-2 might have been the most painful part of the whole deal.