Tyrod is a franchise QB

[CircleTheWagons99]

No he is not.

[Domdab99]

eh.....maybe not

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

eh.....maybe not

 

Welcome to reality.

[RaoulDuke79]

Unfortunately he's our franchise QB.

[QCity]

Not only has the CoT disbanded, but its members are denying ever having any association with it. 

 

56 yards passing will do that. Or do passing yards still not matter?

 

Good stuff.  TBD has become more entertaining than the actual games.

[THEHARDTRUTH]

Middle of the road QB. Definitely could do alot better. Could also do worse.

[xRUSHx]

Should have never resigned him.

Rex with Tyrod is the exact same as McD with Tyrod, not good enough.

 

5-4 on the way to another playoffless season. 

 

Get ready for Tyrod on the road expect another stinker.

 

Will McD continue With Tyrod after 3 stinkers in a row or will he then make the change many of us have wanted since he was hired. Make the QB change or go down like the last two staffs.

 

I want to see Peterman, enough of the QB Rex picked as the starter.

Edited November 13, 2017 by xRUSHx

[Woodman19]

Any time you have to qualify how good someone is at their job by praising what isn't their job, it usually tells you something.

 

Imagine hearing someone say "I mean, our #1 receiver can't catch but he's one of the best jumpers in the league.  Most WR can only dream of jumping so high."

[CircleTheWagons99]

8 minutes ago, Woodman19 said:

Any time you have to qualify how good someone is at their job by praising what isn't their job, it usually tells you something.

 

Imagine hearing someone say "I mean, our #1 receiver can't catch but he's one of the best jumpers in the league.  Most WR can only dream of jumping so high."

This made me laugh

[Woodman19]

10 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

This made me laugh

It happens at work, some lady does sweet F all for the entire day but then everyone likes her and resorts to the Tyrod defense by talking up how neatly she keeps her area.

[section122]

Woof that was some terrible quarterbacking.  The 3rd down check downs were enough to have me pulling my hair out.  No defense for Tyrod from me after that game.  Still think he's a middle of the road starter but wow was that bad.

 

I went to see how bad it was and somehow by QBR it was only the 68th worst game by a qb this year.  It wasn't even the worst TT game as Cincy holds that honor. 7 of the 67 worse games were in wins and 2 wins were by Cam Newton.  I fully expected that to be one of the worst of the year and his worst.

 

So by my tally this year so far:

3 bad games (Carolina, Cincy, and Saints), 2 mediocre (Jets 2 and falcons) and 4 good games

2 games where he hurt the team (Cincy, Saints) and 2 where he didn't help the team (Carolina, Jets #2) - not surprising it is all 4 losses

 

Big game for TT and the Bills this Sunday.  He and they need to rebound in a big way!

 

 

 

 

[billsfan60]

57 minutes ago, THEHARDTRUTH said:

Middle of the road QB. Definitely could do alot better. Could also do worse.

Only thing middle of the road about taylor is his resemblance to roadkill

[Thurman#1]

On 11/12/2017 at 10:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

12 in 141 starts (8.5% of all starts) vs 3 in 37 starts (8.1% of all starts).

 

Way to cherry pick

 

 

 

Yes, but starts isn't how this stat should be looked at.

 

If the Pack goes into the 4th quarter up by 30, is that a negative in any way for Rodgers? The percentage to look at should be 4th quarter comebacks divided by 4th quarter comeback chances. I don't know whether anyone has done that work anywhere but going in way ahead is a Pack trademark and should in no way be held against Rodgers. Or Tyrod, though it's a lot rarer in his case. Or any QB.

 

Dividing by starts is only muddying the waters, it's not relevant how many starts the guy has had.

On 11/13/2017 at 9:35 AM, RaoulDuke79 said:

Unfortunately he's our franchise QB.

 

 

 

We don't have a franchise QB. We have that in common with probably half of the league.

[transplantbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yes, but starts isn't how this stat should be looked at.

 

If the Pack goes into the 4th quarter up by 30, is that a negative in any way for Rodgers? The percentage to look at should be 4th quarter comebacks divided by 4th quarter comeback chances. I don't know whether anyone has done that work anywhere but going in way ahead is a Pack trademark and should in no way be held against Rodgers. Or Tyrod, though it's a lot rarer in his case. Or any QB.

 

Dividing by starts is only muddying the waters, it's not relevant how many starts the guy has had.

 

 

Let me know what you come up with

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, QCity said:

Not only has the CoT disbanded, but its members are denying ever having any association with it. 

 

56 yards passing will do that. Or do passing yards still not matter?

 

Good stuff.  TBD has become more entertaining than the actual games.

 

The CoT never existed.   That was an exaggeration created by the anti-Taylor machine.

 

He'll bounce back and continue to be a good quarterback.........he had a bad game but he'll adapt.......he always has and he has had to adapt to a lot of personnel changes and downgrades.

 

 

 

 

[Teddy KGB]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The CoT never existed.   That was an exaggeration created by the anti-Taylor machine.

 

He'll bounce back and continue to be a good quarterback.........he had a bad game but he'll adapt.......he always has and he has had to adapt to a lot of personnel changes and downgrades.

 

 

 

 

Sounds like something a cot member would say, especially the good qb who always bounces back part ??‍♂️

9 hours ago, QCity said:

Not only has the CoT disbanded, but its members are denying ever having any association with it. 

 

56 yards passing will do that. Or do passing yards still not matter?

 

Good stuff.  TBD has become more entertaining than the actual games.

This x1000.      

[Thurman#1]

On 11/12/2017 at 12:52 AM, Scott7975 said:

If you think of something you want added to the data that makes sense let me know.  I am only in week 2 atm so it wouldn't be hard to go back and add it at this point.  Right now I am tracking how many throws overall each week, how many deep middle third passes in those attempts, incompletions/completions, TDs/INTs, obviously the calculations that can be made from that, and who is throwing them/how many/ who isn't.  I also have kept track of QB pass attempts by QB which could be added but I did not.  I chose to show overall attempts vs attempts to the deep middle.  I could show attempts versus attempts to deep middle by QB fairly easily if you want to add it later.

 

Yes as to my last post those are the missing QBs.  2 of them didn't play that week because of hurricane and I am not sure why Bradford didn't get a chart.

 

Its fine to disagree.  You are right he didn't throw much there in the past.  I see him throwing there more often this year.  No, I don't have time for the data right now, but I would like to know as well.  Maybe in the future I will have that time to do so. 

 

Now I have completed week 2 and here are the results:

 

1077 pass attempts

9 deep middle third attempts 0.8% of the throws or about 1 out of every 120 attempts

7 completions 2 TDs 0 INTs

25 of the 32 charted QBs did not throw to the deep middle or 78.1% did not

 

QBs with no throws to the deep middle:

Stafford

Rodgers

Ryan

Wilson

Hoyer

Cousins

Goff

Siemian

Prescott

McCown

Carr

Rivers

Winston

Glennon

Big Ben

Keenum

Brees

Smith

Bortles

Mariota

Brisset

Newton

Taylor

Flacco

Watson

 

QBs with throws to the deep middle:

Manning 1/1 TD (note this was a judgement one because it was right at the 20 yard mark with a smidge below maybe.  In the end I gave it to him.  Close enough)

Cutler 1/1

Brady 1/1

Wentz 1/2

Palmer 1/2 TD

Kizer 1/1

Dalton 1/1

 

Combined Totals Through 2 weeks:

 

2035 pass attempts

33 deep middle third attempts 1.62% of the throws or about 1 out of every 62 attempts

 

Also I am thinking about just throwing this in a new thread that I can update as I do them.  I can update the first post to reflect the stats as I go.  This stuff will probably get buried and it isn't the original intent of the thread.

 

 

 

 

Hey Scott, sorry this took so long. I'm really busy lately and for whatever reason, my home computer won't work on this site. I get a notification that I'm banned while at my office computer, as you can see, everything is fine. I've emailed them twice about this in the last few weeks and got nothing in return. In a way it's good. Keeps me focused on what's important while at home.

 

Anyway, here are the combined stats for the first two weeks, for the deep middle third, based on your numbers. 

 

As you can see, any QB ranking of activity in this area would be sky high, as any completion would be 20 yards minimum and there are 7 TDs and 2 INTs.

 

You asked if I wanted any other info. If you can get yards on the pass plays, I'd love it, but that's an awful lot of work and I'll totally understand if you can't. I don't think I can, due to time restrictions.

 

I'll read ahead to see if you started another thread or anything. Here are the rankings:

 

 

 

Attempts to the Deep Middle Rankings

 

Tie-1st) Brady 5

Tie-1st) Wentz 5

3rd) Palmer 4 (1 TD, 1 INT)

4th) Kizer 3

Tie-5th) Cousins 2

Tie-5th) Roethlisberger 2 (1 INT)

Tie-7th) Rodgers 1 (1 TD)

Tie-7th) Goff 1 (1 TD)

Tie-7th) Stafford 1 (1 TD)

Tie-7th) Ryan 1 (1 TD)

Tie-7th) Smith 1 (1 TD)

Tie-7th) Brees 1

Tie-7th) Newton 1

Tie-7th) Wilson 1

Tie-7th) Tolzien 1

Tie-7th) Manning 1

Tie-7th) Cutler 1 (missing week1)

Tie-7th) Dalton 1

Tie-27th and last) Wentz 1

Tie-19th and last) Tyrod 0

Tie-19th and last) Rivers 0

Tie-19th and last) Siemian 0

Tie-19th and last) Prescott 0

Tie-19th and last) Hoyer 0

Tie-19th and last) Carr 0

Tie-19th and last) Mariota 0

Tie-19th and last) Bortles 0

Tie-19th and last) Watson 0

Tie-19th and last) Flacco 0

Tie-19th and last) Glennon 0

Tie-19th and last) McCown 0

Tie-19th and last) Winston 0 (missing week 1)

Tie-19th and last) Keenum (didn’t play week 1)

 

 

 

Completions to the deep middle rankings

Tie-1st) Kizer 2

Tie-1st) Palmer 2

Tie-1st) Brady 2

Tie-4th) Brees 1

Tie-4th) Newton 1

Tie-4th) Rodgers 1

Tie-4th) Goff 1

Tie-4th) Tolzien 1

Tie-4th) Stafford 1

Tie-4th) Ryan 1

Tie-4th) Smith 1

Tie-4th) Cutler 1

Tie-4th) Dalton 1

Tie-4th) Manning 1

Tie-4th) Wentz 1

Tie-16th) Tyrod (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Rivers (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Siemian (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Prescott (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Hoyer (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Carr (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Mariota (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Bortles (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Watson (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Flacco (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Glennon (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) McCown (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Keenum (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-16th) Winston (0, but on 0 attempts)

Tie-30th and last) Wilson 0

Tie-30th and last) Cousins 0

Tie-30th and last) Roethlisberger 0              

 

Completion to the deep middle third (1st and 2nd week combined) 17/32

NFL TD/INT ratio to the deep middle third (1st and 2nd week combined: 7/2

 

 

 

Tyrod Attempts to the deep middle:

 

After the first week:  Tied for 16th and last with 0

After the second week:  Tied for 19th and last with 0

 

Completions to the deep middle:

 

Tied for 12th with 0 after the first week

Tied for 16th with 0 after the second week

 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 11/12/2017 at 11:50 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Duuuuuuuuhhhhhh!!!!!!

 

No one would pick Taylor over Rodgers.

 

But if your "Yes he is" was that Rodgers is good at 4th Quarter comebacks, then you must think Taylor is, too

 

On 11/12/2017 at 11:58 AM, jmc12290 said:

He's better than Taylor at it.

 

On 11/12/2017 at 12:04 PM, Scott7975 said:

Statistically he is not.

 

 

Possibly that is because you are looking at a stat that is designed with a gigantic flaw. For example, if a QB comes out in his first game and lays a 50-burger on the other team, going into the fourth quarter up by 37, guess how that dumb stat looks at it ...

 

He's 0 for 1. Because he didn't get a 4th quarter comeback or a game-winning drive.

 

It's an extremely poor stat even for looking at what it's trying to look at. The very least you would do to begin to fix it is to take all the wins that weren't 4th Quarter Comebacks (4QCs) or Game-Winning Drives (GWDs) out of the denominator. Wins should absolutely NOT be counted against the QB in this. 

 

Oh, and right now you know the game where Rodgers was injured in the first half? It's counted against him in this stat, even though the Pack was up by 14, I think when he went out and then lost behind Hundley and Rodgers didn't see a snap in the 4th quarter. Any game the QB starts is counted as a game he might've had a 4QC or GWD. Again, just poorly designed.

 

Right now the way it's calculated is this ((4QC + GWD) / GSQB)  where GSQB is Games Started by that QB.

 

The very beginning of a fix would be to switch it to something more like this:

 

                             (4QC + GWD))

             -----------------------------------------------------

              ( GSQB - (TWGSQB - (4QB + GWD))  ) -  GQBDP4Q

 

 

 

where TWGSQB is Team Wins in Games Started by that QB

and GQBDP4Q is Games when that QB Didn't Play the 4th Quarter

 

(And yeah, I know the names of the variables are clunky and stupid. Hopefully they get the point across, though.)

 

And that's only a start. How should games where the team lost by 30? Or lost by eight when they had a last drive? Or lost by 14 but had two drives that were stopped at the end without the other team scoring? I could go on and on. It's a dumb stat generally. 

 

But at the absolute least you need to get team wins that weren't 4th quarter comeback or Game-Winning Drives out of that denominator, and starts where the QB didn't play in the 4th quarter too.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

More on that stat.

 

Someone said earlier something about how the score at the end of a game was closer than seven points so the QB had a chance at a GWD/4QCB. 

 

But that ain't necessarily so. There are many ways to come to scores with a difference of less than seven points.

 

For example, let's say we're looking at Tyrod. Many ways we could come to a score that ends w/ the Bills down by seven.

 

1) The Bills were down by 15 with 2 minutes left and Tyrod led a terrific drive and got the 2 point conversion with 15 seconds left, but the onside kick failed. Did he have a chance?

 

2) The Bills were up by 22 in the 4th and Brady and the Pats stormed back, scoring 4 TDs including a 2 point, and the Bills offense was utterly skunked in the 4th quarter. Much much less impressive.

 

3) The Bills D held the Jets offense late in the 4th, and up by nine the Jets have a 4th and 27 on their own three yard-line with 25 seconds left in the game. The punter takes the snap and runs out of the end zone for a safety, running around enough that now there's only 18 seconds left, and the free kick is a terrific one and the returner is tackled on the Bills 24 with 7 seconds left. It's a seven point margin. Can Tyrod be blamed for not scoring there?

 

This stat is an absolute quagmire. 

 

And yet except for Rodgers being far far far too low, the rankings it produces are actually pretty decent.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

More on that stat.

 

Someone said earlier something about how the score at the end of a game was closer than seven points so the QB had a chance at a GWD/4QCB. 

 

But that ain't necessarily so. There are many ways to come to scores with a difference of less than seven points.

 

For example, let's say we're looking at Tyrod. Many ways we could come to a score that ends w/ the Bills down by seven.

 

1) The Bills were down by 15 with 2 minutes left and Tyrod led a terrific drive and got the 2 point conversion with 15 seconds left, but the onside kick failed. Did he have a chance?

 

2) The Bills were up by 22 in the 4th and Brady and the Pats stormed back, scoring 4 TDs including a 2 point, and the Bills offense was utterly skunked in the 4th quarter. Much much less impressive.

 

3) The Bills D held the Jets offense late in the 4th, and up by nine the Jets have a 4th and 27 on their own three yard-line with 25 seconds left in the game. The punter takes the snap and runs out of the end zone for a safety, running around enough that now there's only 18 seconds left, and the free kick is a terrific one and the returner is tackled on the Bills 24 with 7 seconds left. It's a seven point margin. Can Tyrod be blamed for not scoring there?

 

This stat is an absolute quagmire. 

 

And yet except for Rodgers being far far far too low, the rankings it produces are actually pretty decent.

I understand busy.  I have been really busy too.  Plus the game took a little wind out of my sail.  I kind of expected a loss to the Saints but not to be completely embarrassed two weeks in a row.  Anyhow,  I have not made a new thread yet but after I compile the third week I will make one and message you the link.  Might be a bit.  I'll see what I can do to add yards.  That might be tough.  Air yards probably be fairly easy because of the chart but actual yards I would probably have to search game logs to find each play.

 

As to this post... that was me and yes you are right.  I was actually thinking about that reading a different post so... good points.