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Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS


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I think you're nuts. This schedule is brutal. They're starting the year 0-2 with NE games. We can't count on AJ Green leaving the game in the 1st again when we play CIN. Not only are we playing the defending champions twice, but we're also playing the runner up. Every single team, except the Jets, has a better QB than we do.

 

I look at this schedule and the only two "should win," games are against the Jets.

 

I'ts brutal.

You'd be right...

 

IF:

 

1) we were playing the teams exactly as they were constructed last year.

2) None of the players on those teams aged,got injured, left in FA, had their team change coordinators or got suspended, played with the same confidence level and the same chemistry

3) Everything was exactly the same as last year

 

As you can see, this is ridiculous to say all of these things will be the same.

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Both teams are going to continue to run the same schemes under the new coordinators.

Both teams have better talent than the Bills IMO.

I don't want the Bills to lose these games but think they will.

I give us a chance in Carolina. I think we will lose in Atlanta.

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Teams change from year to year. Typically a good team is still a good team a year later. But Carolina was 15-1 in 2015, and 7-9 in 2016. So Atlanta being an unstoppable juggernaut doesn't hold water to me.

 

They lost their O coordinator... that will have an effect.

Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

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Yup, I'd take Siemian over Tyrod.

 

Not if they were both third year guys. But Tyrod is going into his seventh. And seventh year guys who aren't franchise guys make the big leap up to the franchise level almost never.

How many QBs rode the bench for 4 years with no opportunity to start before going to another team, winning the starting QB job, and demonstrating from game 1 he belongs as an NFL starting QB?

 

It's fine. We know you don't think Taylor's any good. But this argument you're making isn't very strong simply because what I just said above almost never happens, but it did with Tyrod.

 

So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected. :flirt:

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

 

Yup... 2 certainties... the patriots will be good. The browns will be bad. I don't care who they drafted, when you have a bottom 3 offense and defense the year before, you are not close to being good.

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Bills fans have been ruined by the Patriots. All our expectations are thrown off. We think good QBs play like Tom Brady and good teams are consistently good for years at a time. Besides the Patriots, only the Seahawks have come close to matching that level of dynasty the past few years. And maybe the Packers besides than that. Every other team is mostly different from year to year, same goes for QBs outside of the top 5. I expect Atlanta to fall pretty hard this season for example.

 

Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

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Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

...agree....the Pats are what they are, damn good......so what do you do?...resign yourself that the "best we can do is hope and play for a WC spot"?....or pray for Brady and BB to retire?....now there's a real challenging attitude........

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Perfectly stated. The perfect example is a team that represents the same state as the Bills. The Giants went from 6-10 to 11-5 in one year with the same QB they've had for 13 seasons. Changed a weakness into their strength within one season most of the staff stayed in place, but, still a dramatic change.

The Giants represent New Jersey ;)
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Dude the last year they had brady and missed the playoffs was 2002.

...but the "ray of hope" was 2008 when Brady went down and Cassel filled in at 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs.......first, when is the last time a team missed at 11-5?....secondly, did the Bills show up for the picnic, dude?....NOPE...two sandwiches short at 7-9....go figure..............

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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...but the "ray of hope" was 2008 when Brady went down and Cassel filled in at 11-5 and they MISSED the playoffs.......first, when is the last time a team missed at 11-5?....secondly, did the Bills show up for the picnic, dude?....NOPE...two sandwiches short at 7-9....go figure..............

 

Dick Jauron... what did you expect? To be fair - that 2008 Patriots team had a top 10 offense and defense without Brady. I know I don't remember Cassel going 30/43 for 415 and 3 TDs... but he did.

Edited by dneveu
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So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected. :flirt:

There is no doubt Tyrod is a guy who has fought the odds his whole career and has a habit of overcoming. I am not a Tyrod believer but I don't believe the guy will ever quit.

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Contract is certainly cheaper, but i think Tyrod is a better player.

 

 

To repeat what I just said, yeah, me too, slightly.

 

But Tyrod's a 7th year guy and Siemian a 3rd year guy. Plenty of guys with two years of NFL experience make huge leaps upwards. Whereas pretty much the only 7th year guy is Gannon, though hundreds have been in position to do so.

 

Siemian, without a doubt.

Passer Rating, huh?

 

89.6 > 84.9

 

:doh:

 

 

So does this mean Taylor "could be a good one" even more than Siemian? :thumbsup:

 

 

No.

How many QBs rode the bench for 4 years with no opportunity to start before going to another team, winning the starting QB job, and demonstrating from game 1 he belongs as an NFL starting QB?

 

It's fine. We know you don't think Taylor's any good. But this argument you're making isn't very strong simply because what I just said above almost never happens, but it did with Tyrod.

 

So, one thing that almost never happens (and I challenge you to go find all those instances where it did happen if I'm wrong) happened with our own starting QB. Maybe the thing you think has little chance of happening has a decent chance of happening considering he's already doing the unexpected. :flirt:

 

 

The answer to your first question about how many QBs rode the bench for four years yadda yadda yadda is ... plenty. Probably somewhere close to 50. But you're also missing the point of your own question.

 

How many guys rode the bench for four years ...? Exactly. The good QBs, the ones who have a good chance to become franchise QBs, don't do that. They beat out the guy ahead of them in the first three or four years. And if they don't for some reason, like Aaron Rodgers, then the three or four years on the bench has put them in position to succeed and they quickly show they belong.

 

What doesn't happen is they sit on the bench for a long time, have a good year and then regress. There are virtually no cases of this happening and it resulting in a franchise QB ... because that's not how guys like that behave.

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The answer to your first question about how many QBs rode the bench for four years yadda yadda yadda is ... plenty. Probably somewhere close to 50. But you're also missing the point of your own question.

 

How many guys rode the bench for four years ...? Exactly. The good QBs, the ones who have a good chance to become franchise QBs, don't do that. They beat out the guy ahead of them in the first three or four years. And if they don't for some reason, like Aaron Rodgers, then the three or four years on the bench has put them in position to succeed and they quickly show they belong.

 

What doesn't happen is they sit on the bench for a long time, have a good year and then regress. There are virtually no cases of this happening and it resulting in a franchise QB ... because that's not how guys like that behave.

This post is baffling.

 

First of all... 50?!

 

Name 10... and be sure you include all the "yadda yadda" you probably just glossed over.

 

Second of all... ummm... quickly showed they belong...? While it might not be to Aaron Rodgers's level, I think that's what he's done...

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Second of all... ummm... quickly showed they belong...? While it might not be to Aaron Rodgers's level, I think that's what he's done...

 

Serious questions here and not trying to be a dick: You think Tyrod Taylor is a QB who's shown that he belongs as the undisputed starter on an NFL team? You think he looks like a guy whose been honing his skills for 5-6 years and has done the things you want to see out of an NFL starter?

 

Lastly - why do you think Tyrod Taylor took a paycut to stay with the Bills? My personal belief is that it was because he knew that Buffalo was the only place he knew he'd start, even if it was just as a bridge.

 

And somehow, you think that's how "someone who belongs," would normally handle that situation?

 

The only thing he's proven is he WAS where he belonged whilst in Baltimore - in my opinion, of course.

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