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New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought


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Yes this is a Tyrod thread. I would love if all the name calling and petty arguments could stay out of this one.

 

I thought I was done analyzing the Bills offense in 2016, but these three articles that were published over the past couple days changed my mind:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-hc-mcdermott-impressed-with-tyrod-taylors-leadership/

 

Taken together, these articles give us a lot of new information about how well Tyrod and the Bills offense fared when under pressure, or after taking a sack.

 

The conventional wisdom is that sacks are drive-killers. The first link is a study looking into how often a team was able to get a 1st down after taking a sack.

 

The average team was able to obtain a 1st down after a sack just 16.01% of the time. But the Bills converted for a 1st down 28.26% of the time after a sack. This was the highest percentage in the league (for comparison's sake, Miami was the worst in the league with a 3.33% 1st down rate).

 

We took 46 sacks total of which we converted 13. So in actuality we took 33 drive-killing sacks in 2016. This number needs to go down in 2017 but at least as an offense we were better able to recover after a sack than any other offense in the league.

 

The next two links are far more interesting to me. Football Outsiders published a study showing how often QBs were under defensive pressure on a passing play. They also calculated what the total offense's DVOA looked like when the QB was under pressure, whether the QB scrambled or threw the ball. This is really important because previously we only had good DVOA data on Tyrod's passing. Now we get a sense of how his passing and mobility can affect the entire offense's production.

 

The data:

-Tyrod was under pressure on 35.3% of his pass plays. Only Jared Goff was pressured more, out of 34 qualifying QBs. This obviously needs to get better, whoever you want to blame.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod wasn't under pressure was 16th in the league - exactly average.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod was under pressure was 2nd in the league. Only the Packers/Aaron Rodgers were better.

 

Finally, the last link tells us that Tyrod also had the 7th best passer rating (80.1) when under pressure. And he threw 10 TDs when under pressure which was 3rd best in the league (Luck and Rodgers were ahead of him).

 

So there's a lot of really great data here. IMO the data shows Tyrod was better than people give him credit for. He was under pressure way too often. I know he has a tendency to hold the ball too long but I don't believe that tendency is enough to explain our extremely low 33/34 ranking. Hopefully Dawkins helps solve this problem in 2017.

 

Most of all, the data shows that when you factor in Tyrod's passing and scrambling, our offense performed anywhere from average (16th) to outstanding (2nd) on called passing plays. If one of your central criticisms of Tyrod is that his scrambling isn't as important as being a good passer, this data puts a pretty big dent in that criticism IMO. Especially when you consider how often Tyrod was under pressure and therefore how often we needed this special talent of his.

 

Interpret and argue away!

Edited by HappyDays
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Factor in the recievers he had to work with and I think that's even more impressive.

 

It sounds like McCoy and the tight ends are going to be involved much heavier in the passing game this year which will only serve to help him this season having some designated safety valves when thinks break down.

 

I'm not saying playoffs or anything but I think there's enough to believe our offense could take a step forward under the new regime.

Edited by likei've
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Factor in the recievers he had to work with and I think that's even more impressive.

 

It sounds like McCoy and the tight ends are going to be involved much heavier in the passing game this year which will only serve to help him this season.

 

I'm not saying playoffs or anything but I think there's enough to believe our offense could take a step forward under the new regime.

 

You hit it on the head with the recievers. Half the season we was trotting scrubs on the field, we was fielding probably the worst reciever group in the NFL. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening this year with Sammy and his foot along with Clay and his knee. I won't be shocked when we trot Jones or Holmes on the field as our 1 reciever again. Hope I'm wrong and everyone stays healthy. Hope Sammy, Clay and Jones have big years. Seeing the QB we have put on the field throughout the drought, I for one am happy that we have TT

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You hit it on the head with the recievers. Half the season we was trotting scrubs on the field, we was fielding probably the worst reciever group in the NFL. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening this year with Sammy and his foot along with Clay and his knee. I won't be shocked when we trot Jones or Holmes on the field as our 1 reciever again. Hope I'm wrong and everyone stays healthy. Hope Sammy, Clay and Jones have big years. Seeing the QB we have put on the field throughout the drought, I for one am happy that we have TT

Jones could be the gem from the draft.

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How many times do we need to go over this?

WE need to go over it as many times as WE'D like.

 

You don't like it? Stay out, it's as easy as that.

 

Why do people find that concept so hard to grasp? No self control? Why don't you start a thread, we'll decide if we'd like to go over your topic.

 

I bet you won't.

Edited by likei've
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Some just never stop trying to polish a t*rd.

 

 

Here is another one for you.

 

With less than 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 14 1/2 or more Tyrod is ranked 2nd in the NFL in completions only behind Case Keenum.

 

OMG see how good he is. That stat proves it to me I'm on the Tyrod train now. Whoop whoop.

 

 

Caution sarcasm included.

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Some just never stop trying to polish a t*rd.

 

 

Here is another one for you.

 

With less than 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 14 1/2 or more Tyrod is ranked 2nd in the NFL in completions only behind Case Keenum.

 

OMG see how good he is. That stat proves it to me I'm on the Tyrod train now. Whoop whoop.

 

 

Caution sarcasm included.

Caution: an ignorant and misinformed, biased post. You don't have to be on any train. 31 other teams to choose from.

Edited by JM2009
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Pretty good. Just not good enough to beat any .500 teams.

 

It's still a no from me.

Okay but you do understand Tyrod isn't playing alone, yes? Just like Brees, Luck, and Rivers. Of course Tyrod isn't as good as those guys, and their defenses were worse than his were. But you do understand there's a connection there, yes? I wish we had a QB capable of propping up a below average defense but we don't and we aren't likely to find one anytime soon.

 

And you need to stop saying things like "he's not good enough to beat a .500 team" which is clearly factually wrong. Outside of the ones he literally has beat, he was obviously good enough to win against Miami and Seattle. He performed better against both of their defenses than the large majority of QBs did last year (if I'm remembering correctly he had the best passer rating against Seattle last year, I might be wrong and I can't find that data). So of course Tyrod is good enough to beat playoff teams. He isn't good enough to beat playoff teams when his defense doesn't show up but that's a different qualification entirely.

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Caution: an ignorant and misinformed, biased post. You don't have to be on any train. 31 other teams to choose from.

At least you are admitting that you are ignorant, misinformed and your post is biased ahead of time.

 

Finally some honesty. Lol

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The Bills offense wasn't the issue. They've been top 10 DVOA the last two years. They scored a lot. In fact they lost 6 times last year while scoring 24 points. The AFC playoff teams had 5 such losses combined. I don't think that we need to convince people that the offense wasn't the problem. It wasn't perfect but wasn't near the top of the list of reasons that the Bills weren't in the playoffs. Will it continue? Will the defense take big strides? How much will McDermott & co upgrade the coaching? Will the best players stay healthy? A lot of "what ifs" but if the offense is top 7 in scoring again (where they were through 16 weeks) this team will win more than 7 games.

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I'm curious why you think the Bills asked Tyrod to take a pay cut this year

and why Tyrod agreed ?

 

Well, it's unlikely that Tyrod could've gone to any other organization and would be the number one guy from jump street. In Buffalo, it is essentially his team and his job to lose. This is not negating the fact maybe his services weren't as valuable in terms of dollars to another team as they are here.

 

That being said, The Bills did not have any better options available via FA, plus, they got him to take a pay cut this year which allows them to remain competitive as they continue to build their vision. Which, his old contract would have made it difficult for them to continue to do so with all the holes they had/have to fill with less cap space.

 

PS: I miss the Jeremy Maclin thread.

Edited by Captain Murica
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Okay but you do understand Tyrod isn't playing alone, yes? Just like Brees, Luck, and Rivers. Of course Tyrod isn't as good as those guys, and their defenses were worse than his were. But you do understand there's a connection there, yes? I wish we had a QB capable of propping up a below average defense but we don't and we aren't likely to find one anytime soon.

And you need to stop saying things like "he's not good enough to beat a .500 team" which is clearly factually wrong. Outside of the ones he literally has beat, he was obviously good enough to win against Miami and Seattle. He performed better against both of their defenses than the large majority of QBs did last year (if I'm remembering correctly he had the best passer rating against Seattle last year, I might be wrong and I can't find that data). So of course Tyrod is good enough to beat playoff teams. He isn't good enough to beat playoff teams when his defense doesn't show up but that's a different qualification entirely.

Factually wrong ? Wrong

 

You're a TT guy and you want to prop him up, that doesn't change the fact he's 1-6 vs .500 teams.

 

I am factually right if you want to drop this biasness and deal with hard cold facts. Don't disrespect Archimedes bro !

 

Seasons over, Bills sucked again, thanks to Jacoby Brissett for the 1.

 

Show me the money in 2017.

Edited by Maury Ballstein
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Factually wrong ? Wrong

 

You're a TT guy and you want to prop him up, that doesn't change the fact he's 1-6 vs .500 teams.

 

I am factually right if you want to drop this biasness and deal with hard cold facts. Don't disrespect the Pythagoreans bro.

 

Seasons over, Bills sucked again. Show me the money in 2017.

What about 2015?Houston, Colts, Jets twice-you keep skipping over these. Your a good skipper, I've noticed.

Factually wrong ? Wrong

 

You're a TT guy and you want to prop him up, that doesn't change the fact he's 1-6 vs .500 teams.

 

I am factually right if you want to drop this biasness and deal with hard cold facts. Don't disrespect Archimedes bro with this CoT math.

Seasons over, Bills sucked again. Show me the money in 2017.

What about the second Miami game in 2016? What unit lost that game?

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What about 2015?Houston, Colts, Jets twice-you keep skipping over these. Your a good skipper, I've noticed.

Let's go back 2 years to find positives. Nice.

 

Beating Fitz and Hoyer is quite a feather in the cap. The colts win was something, it felt like we didn't suck for a solid few weeks

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Let's go back 2 years to find positives. Nice.

 

Beating Fitz and Hoyer is quite a feather in the cap. The colts win was something, it felt like we didn't suck for a solid few weeks

You said he doesn't beat .500 teams, and he did. Now it's how bad their QBs are. The Jets had a very good defense in 2015. That's who TT plays against, you understand. The defenses, not the other team's QB. And he played too often with scrub WRs in 2016.

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Made it just in time for this to turn into a heated Tyrod thread.

The more we ignore the dumb baiting posts the better this thread will be. I wasn't going to make another Tyrod thread ever but the Football Outsiders was genuinely surprising and interesting to me. If you had asked me where the Bills offense DVOA would be ranked on called passing plays I wouldn't have guessed 16th, I would have thought it was worse than that. And that's just our ranking when Tyrod was not under pressure. Our offense's total DVOA was brought down due the sheer number of times he was under pressure - as good as Tyrod is in that situation he still has a negative overall DVOA. Our passing game could improve just by calling plays where the routes develop quickly. Or by Dawkins improving the line. Getting the "under pressure" percentage down is a very feasible way for the offense to improve in 2017 contrary to the belief that the offense has hit its ceiling.

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Some just never stop trying to polish a t*rd.

 

 

Here is another one for you.

 

With less than 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 14 1/2 or more Tyrod is ranked 2nd in the NFL in completions only behind Case Keenum.

 

OMG see how good he is. That stat proves it to me I'm on the Tyrod train now. Whoop whoop.

 

 

Caution sarcasm included.

Can someone who is anti-Tyrod please say something that isn't completely childish? I'd love for there to be a thread where it isn't analysis vs sarcasm.

 

Although, I have to say, between my own research and others' posts here, I am much more content with Tyrod as our QB than I was at the end of the season. There have been a lot of articles, posts, etc. that have shown our offense to be in capable hands. Whereas the arguments, or lack thereof, from the other side have shown how little substance there is behind blaming our QB for the last two seasons' disappointments.

 

He won't light it up in the passing game, but we have an approach that is well-suited to take advantage of the weaknesses of defenses that are focused on the pass (i.e. all of them), and he's the best guy to run it. Other teams have to cater their game plan for two of our offensive weapons (three if Sammy is healthy), and that's no small achievement. It takes a lot of talent and skill to average more yards per scramble than most QB's yards per pass attempt, and it takes a lot of preparation and knowledge (and balls) to pull the football out of a HOF running back's hands and take it yourself when the defense shows an opportunity.

 

Yes, they had stretches of ineptitude. But (surprise!) that generally came when we were missing our #1 and/or #2 WR, our #1 and/or #2 RB, or our #1 TE.

 

Yes, I want to see an improvement in reads and progression. Yes, I want to see a quicker release. Yes, I want to see fewer sacks.

 

But you know what? Even with those weaknesses, and a whole lot of injuries to passing targets, we did pretty well on offense. So, I'm hoping the new coaching staff can make some improvements in the passing game and a whole lot of improvements on defense. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's probably exactly what they're working on, and in those proportions. Hey, it can't be any worse than the Ryan bros, right?

 

...

 

Right?

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Can someone who is anti-Tyrod please say something that isn't completely childish? I'd love for there to be a thread where it isn't analysis vs sarcasm.

 

Although, I have to say, between my own research and others' posts here, I am much more content with Tyrod as our QB than I was at the end of the season. There have been a lot of articles, posts, etc. that have shown our offense to be in capable hands. Whereas the arguments, or lack thereof, from the other side have shown how little substance there is behind blaming our QB for the last two seasons' disappointments.

 

He won't light it up in the passing game, but we have an approach that is well-suited to take advantage of the weaknesses of defenses that are focused on the pass (i.e. all of them), and he's the best guy to run it. Other teams have to cater their game plan for two of our offensive weapons (three if Sammy is healthy), and that's no small achievement. It takes a lot of talent and skill to average more yards per scramble than most QB's yards per pass attempt, and it takes a lot of preparation and knowledge (and balls) to pull the football out of a HOF running back's hands and take it yourself when the defense shows an opportunity.

 

Yes, they had stretches of ineptitude. But (surprise!) that generally came when we were missing our #1 and/or #2 WR, our #1 and/or #2 RB, or our #1 TE.

 

Yes, I want to see an improvement in reads and progression. Yes, I want to see a quicker release. Yes, I want to see fewer sacks.

 

But you know what? Even with those weaknesses, and a whole lot of injuries to passing targets, we did pretty well on offense. So, I'm hoping the new coaching staff can make some improvements in the passing game and a whole lot of improvements on defense. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say that's probably exactly what they're working on, and in those proportions. Hey, it can't be any worse than the Ryan bros, right?

 

...

 

Right?

It's sad that our starting QB gets more respect from fans and media across the league then from some of the people in his own fanbase. And they all recognize he is not elite/HOF type but far from terrible. And he brings unique talents to his game that other QBs don't have.

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It's sad that our starting QB gets more respect from fans and media across the league then from some of the people in his own fanbase. And they all recognize he is not elite/HOF type but far from terrible. And he brings unique talents to his game that other QBs don't have.

I would bet that's true with most teams in a similar situation. The Dolphins, Chiefs, Bengals, Cardinals and even the Ravens fans are probably having similar conversations (I know Ravens fans are). When you are "satisfactory" you will always have a segment that is happy, a segment that is mad and a group that is indifferent. It's no different here. There are people that think Tyrod is great, terrible or the best option at the moment. You don't get that spread with Tom Brady or Christian Hackenberg.
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You said he doesn't beat .500 teams, and he did. Now it's how bad their QBs are. The Jets had a very good defense in 2015. That's who TT plays against, you understand. The defenses, not the other team's QB. And he played too often with scrub WRs in 2016.

Its Fitz and Hoyer. Twist it however you want to feel better. I miss Leodis and I miss playoff football and exciting passing attacks.

 

No need to keep going after me because I don't share your enthusiasm. We disagree on the qb position. It is what it is, I respect your fanatical Taylor love but it's not my bag baby.

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It's how the insecure ones justify their position.

I just don't understand how the Bills fans are always left off the top fan articles.

 

I just don't get it.

 

Oh... Well it might be because some fans call our qb a "turd" and others go into threads they don't have anything constructive to say to call people deciding to be positive about our qb situation "insecure".

 

I mean, we could just be having a conversation. Don't like the topic? Stay out of the thread. Easy.

 

Insecure to talk about the qb of your football team? Yikes. I feel bad for anyone in your life that doesn't feel exactly as you do about things.

 

Differing opinion = insecurity? Wow.

Edited by likei've
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No one told me about this new mod.

I wish I was, I'd automatically ban anyone that gripes about a thread being started.

 

It's s message board, if threads aren't started there's no conversation.

 

It's like whining that you're being given too many options at dinner.

 

Don't like it? Don't eat it.

Edited by likei've
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Factually wrong ? Wrong

 

You're a TT guy and you want to prop him up, that doesn't change the fact he's 1-6 vs .500 teams.

 

I am factually right if you want to drop this biasness and deal with hard cold facts. Don't disrespect Archimedes bro with this bbmb CoT math.

 

Seasons over, Bills sucked again, thanks to Jacoby Brissett for the 1.

 

Show me the money in 2017.

So why is it that you say Tyrod is 1-6 against teams over .500 and not the Bills that are 1-6 against teams over .500? It's a cold hard fact that both sides of the ball contribute to wins and losses, but your bias doesn't even consider half of the equation.

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Factually wrong ? Wrong

 

You're a TT guy and you want to prop him up, that doesn't change the fact he's 1-6 vs .500 teams.

 

I am factually right if you want to drop this biasness and deal with hard cold facts. Don't disrespect Archimedes bro with this bbmb CoT math.

 

Seasons over, Bills sucked again, thanks to Jacoby Brissett for the 1.

 

Show me the money in 2017.

Look I want the Bills to make the playoffs, walk before they can run and all that. Tyrod playing as he did in 2016 was not good enough to win a Super Bowl. MAYBE 2015 Tyrod with a very strong defense is a Super Bowl contender - Russell Wilson won a Super Bowl with similar stats and Peyton Manning won one playing much worse, these are 2 winners just in the last 5 years.

 

But either way the truth is Tyrod was good enough both years to make the playoffs, especially 2015. I think the Bills making the playoffs will do wonders for the franchise - wipe the 17 year stink off our backs - and I believe Tyrod is easily our best chance at playoffs right now. That doesn't mean we should ignore the position (nor did we - Nate Peterman says hello). But YOUR strategy of keep trying until you hit the elite QB jackpot won't get us anywhere anytime soon. I want a 10 win season and Tyrod can get us there.

 

If you can't admit that Tyrod is capable of taking the Bills to the playoffs with moderate defensive improvement then I really don't know what to tell you. Like, it's an objective fact that this offense under Tyrod is good enough to take us to the playoffs, and if you can't at least admit that then you're not being fair.

 

The craziest of the crazy Tyrod fanatics probably thinks he's a top 12 QB. That's the fringe of the people you're talking to. Have some more respect and stop embarrassing yourself by acting like a jackass.

I wish I was, I'd automatically ban anyone that gripes about a thread being started.

 

It's s message board, if threads aren't started there's no conversation.

 

It's like whining that you're being given too many options at dinner.

 

Don't like it? Don't eat it.

What if it's like a Golden Corral situation where there's lot of food but it all sucks?

Edited by HappyDays
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