Football Outsiders: Bills will be 'measurably worse' in 2017

[ChanOverChin]

We had a lot of injuries last year and that has to change.

 

I think the gains this year will outweigh the losses as long as our core players can stay healthy for most of the year. I'm talking about guys like Taylor, Watkins, Clay, Glenn, Dareus, Hughes, K. Williams.

 

The new coaching staff seems to have better schemes than that of the previous staff and better suited to our current personnel.

 

That has to count for something.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I just don't think Taylor is a good enough passer to carry a average team talent wise to a wildcard. To even think playoffs with Taylor we would need the Seahawks defense and the Rams offense of the 90's. I really think Taylor is gone after this year.

In reality, if we had the Bills' 2016 offense and the Eagles' 2016 defense we'd have likely made the playoffs

Edited June 2, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[simpleman]

I expect between 5-7 wins. Just enough to ruin our draft potential.Thank you for that extra 1st round pick Whaley! A true valuable parting gift.

[richardb1952]

There is no reason for anyone outside the Bills organization, including fans, to think the Bills will be better than last year. Tougher schedule, new coaching staff, too much reliance on rookies and FAs, loss of MG and Gilmore. I believe that many of these reasons are exactly why the Bills will be better than last year.

Better coaching staff - I know McDermott and staff are unknowns but I firmly believe they have to be better than Rex and brother. I don't know who was running the show last year but I feel everyone on defense this year will at least understand their roles and responsibilities.

 

There will be more reliance on rookies contributing this year and that includes Ragland and Lawson who basically had no rookie seasons last year. The rookies that are being depended on were all 4 year starters in college and all appear to have great attitudes, talent and knowledge to be able to make strong contributions this year. I believe there is a strong possibility of getting a new punter, I like our LB corp better than last years.

 

Tough to lose good talent (Gilmore and MG), but I believe there are players on this roster that can fill in to an acceptable level. I hated to lose A. Williams, but lets face it, if you can't stay on the field, is it really a loss.

 

Schedule is brutal, but if the Bills can avoid the injuries that have plagued them the last few years, this team can equal last years record and can be viewed as an ascending team by the end of the year. I fully expect that by the end of the year, those outside the organization as well as Bills fans will view this team as a team that is on the rise.

[simpleman]

Total bunk. The only rookie they'll be relying-on to replace a departed player is White, for Gilmore. But with the move back to the 4-3, which suits most of the players and is a reason the defense will be much-improved, it will help the secondary. The biggest question is whether Ragland can play MLB.

 

On offense, Holmes and Brown can easily replace what they lost in Woods and Goodwin. If Zay Jones turns out to be a stud, so much the better, and the same goes if Dawkins can be an upgrade over Mills.

 

Don't also forget adding Hauschka. And Rehkow has a good shot of replacing Schimdt.

While I understand Not overpaying Woods, I think you severely undervalue what Woods brought to the game for the Bills. Not just as a receiver, but as a blocker for Taylor and the running game when the pass plays broke down. Which happened way too often. Jones is already hurt, and is a total question mark at receiver until we see him in the regular season. He is a glimmer of hope, but as this point is just a dream, not a reality. Neither Holmes or Brown has shown themselves to be a #2 WR, much less a # 3. Maybe one could outperform their history and become a decent #3 (Goodwin's replacement). But based on their past history, they could also both end up being #4 talent as well.

Edited June 2, 2017 by simpleman

[BuffaloHokie13]

While I understand Not overpaying Woods, I think you severely undervalue what Woods brought to the game for the Bills. Not just as a receiver, but as a blocker for Taylor and the running game when the pass plays broke down. Which happened way too often. Jones is already hurt, and is a total question mark at receiver until we see him in the regular season. He is a glimmer of hope, but as this point is just a dream, not a reality. Neither Holmes or Brown has shown themselves to be a #2 WR, much less a # 3. Maybe one could outperform their history be a decent #3 (Goodwin's replacement). But based on their past history, they could also both end up being #4 talent as well.

With a qb like Tyrod, when the pass plays break down and he's scrambling it is better for the receiver to break off their route and try to get open rather than blocking.

[GunnerBill]

While I understand Not overpaying Woods, I think you severely undervalue what Woods brought to the game for the Bills. Not just as a receiver, but as a blocker for Taylor and the running game when the pass plays broke down. Which happened way too often. Jones is already hurt, and is a total question mark at receiver until we see him in the regular season. He is a glimmer of hope, but as this point is just a dream, not a reality. Neither Holmes or Brown has shown themselves to be a #2 WR, much less a # 3. Maybe one could outperform their history and become a decent #3 (Goodwin's replacement). But based on their past history, they could also both end up being #4 talent as well.

 

Holmes is an upgrade on Goodwin. There is no question about that. His best career year is way better than Goodwin's. My concern is more that I see all 3 of our best WRs - Sammy, Holmes and Zay as outside guys. I know Blokes saw Zay more as a slot receiver so maybe he ends up in there.... maybe they move Sammy around.... but it does concern me a little bit. If Sammy stays healthy I think Jones and Holmes bring enough support for him (with a good dose of Clay and Shady as a receiver). It is if Sammy goes down and Zay and Holmes become your 1-2 that I really worry.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

Holmes is an upgrade on Goodwin. There is no question about that. His best career year is way better than Goodwin's. My concern is more that I see all 3 of our best WRs - Sammy, Holmes and Zay as outside guys. I know Blokes saw Zay more as a slot receiver so maybe he ends up in there.... maybe they move Sammy around.... but it does concern me a little bit. If Sammy stays healthy I think Jones and Holmes bring enough support for him (with a good dose of Clay and Shady as a receiver). It is if Sammy goes down and Zay and Holmes become your 1-2 that I really worry.

I think Brown fits as the inside guy the best of the bunch, outside of Sammy who would be the best anywhere.

[ROONDOGG55]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/05/30/football-outsiders-editor-bills-will-measurably-worse-2017/

"Departures will leave the Buffalo Bills depending an awful lot on rookies this year, and rookies don't always fulfill their potential right away (if ever). Two of last year's top three receivers are gone. Two of last year's top three cornerbacks are gone. And while LeSean McCoy is still around to keep the running game dangerous, Mike Gillislee was outstanding last year and losing him really hurts Buffalo's depth."

I've said before, Gillislee was a big loss.

In most cases this is true, and ours may follow suit. I do, however, believe we can overcome these weaknesses with great line-play on both sides of the ball. If we can continue the ground games success, and recreate the pass rushing havoc from a few years ago, I believe that our rookies / 1st year starters could come along nicely.

[xsoldier54]

Nobody can really predict how many wins this team will have, but I predict that they will be noticeably better. I think this roster has more depth than last year and I truly believe that by getting rid of Rex and Rob the team will be much better prepared each and every week. Looking forward to some entertaining football this season.

[All_Pro_Bills]

With several very good QB prospects expected to be available for the draft this would be the time to be measurably worse. The schedule is tough and predicting records at this point is a crapshoot. All I ask is I see a well prepared, disciplined, and big-effort team on the field week after week. There's no shame in losing to a superior foe as long as you give it you best shot and don't beat yourself like this team did during the short Rex era.

 

Getting focused, setting a plan for getting competitive longer-term, and perhaps getting the answer at QB then going into the 2018 season with a real shot at competing for the division or minimally a wild card would be the best of all worlds for me.

[NewEraBills]

The only thing that analysis has right IMO is Gillislee. Other than that I think the article is overvaluing Robert Woods and Marquis Goodwin. They showed flashes but they were never consistent and were never a defensive coordinators concern. Woods was a good blocker though. But again, neither of these guys were a defensive coordinators concern. Goodwin couldn't stay healthy and Woods was just too inconsistent. Again he showed flash and had one game (seattle) where I thought finally another WR stepping up to be a weapon, but then would go silent.

 

Gilmore has some talent but like the other guys consistency was lacking. He will play better for Bellicheck because BB will do things that help his guys succeed rather than telling them we running cover 1 and you just gotta play through it and get roasted over and over again. That said, I like our guys and I like what McDermott has going on defense. You can't underestimate simplicity. It allows guys to play alot faster and when you play faster you play confident.

 

My biggest concern is a dropoff in the run game, not because of Gillislee though but because I'm not sure Castillo has the "eye" that Lynn had as run game coordinator and eventually O Coordinator. Lynn used a lot of extra linemen sets. Him and Roman loved that and it worked and was hard as hell for defenses to defend. Roman is known for that. Castillo I've never seen a team with him as run game coordinator deploy an extra lineman in some of their formations. Neither have I seen a team with him as run game coordinator go with a Tackle over in their formations. When you look at a lot of the big runs that Shady had last year, they were from formations that either moved a tackle over or one that deployed an extra lineman.

Edited June 2, 2017 by NewEraBills

[hondo in seattle]

While losing Gilmore, Woods and MG hurts, I think our coaches will help many/most of the remaining players perform better.

 

Which means our 2017 roster is actually somewhat better than our 2016 roster.

 

I'm thinking 8 or 9 wins.

[JM2009]

I just don't think Taylor is a good enough passer to carry a average team talent wise to a wildcard. To even think playoffs with Taylor we would need the Seahawks defense and the Rams offense of the 90's. I really think Taylor is gone after this year.

With a better defense in 2016, this would have been a playoff team. Not Miami.

[simpleman]

With a qb like Tyrod, when the pass plays break down and he's scrambling it is better for the receiver to break off their route and try to get open rather than blocking.

I don't have the footage to evaluate your assumption. But from my memory, when a pass play breaks down, and Tyrod scrambles, he usually instinctively goes directly to the run, trusting his legs to bail him out. I don't remember him scanning the field looking for receivers breaking their routes for him very often. Maybe someone who has researched Tyrod can give us the scoop on his tendencies when a pass play breaks down.

[H2o]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/05/30/football-outsiders-editor-bills-will-measurably-worse-2017/

"Departures will leave the Buffalo Bills depending an awful lot on rookies this year, and rookies don't always fulfill their potential right away (if ever). Two of last year's top three receivers are gone. Two of last year's top three cornerbacks are gone. And while LeSean McCoy is still around to keep the running game dangerous, Mike Gillislee was outstanding last year and losing him really hurts Buffalo's depth."

I've said before, Gillislee was a big loss.

We lost Woods, Goodwin, Gilmore, NRC, and TD Mike basically. Karlos handled that role well before Mike and I have no reason to think that there isn't a guy on the roster who can do that this year. J Will or one of the many others will do just fine. Woods was a solid player, but nothing spectacular. The track star known as Mr. Glass only had one semi-decent year of production so nothing to miss there. The guys we have added at WR easily replace what left. The thing that I worry about is the Secondary, but in a 4-3 we should be creating more pressure. That means our guys should cover for less of a duration and also be the beneficiary of some rushed throws that could possibly help to create turnovers. Measurably worse though? I think not.

[John from Riverside]

I don't have the footage to evaluate your assumption. But from my memory, when a pass play breaks down, and Tyrod scrambles, he usually instinctively goes directly to the run, trusting his legs to bail him out. I don't remember him scanning the field looking for receivers breaking their routes for him very often. Maybe someone who has researched Tyrod can give us the scoop on his tendencies when a pass play breaks down.

I have seen him do this but I think your right in that he becomes a runner when he decides to pull the ball down.....in which case it becomes BETTER for the receiver to turn blocker because Tyrod has that rare athletic ability as QB to turn playmaker.

 

Holmes and the rest of the free agent WR's dont replace Woods (but easily replace goodwin imo) but that was NEVER the plan......Sammy is the blue chip WR player on this team and there is everyone else.

 

Zay Jones? Now he might actually replace Woods production.

[BuffaloHokie13]

I don't have the footage to evaluate your assumption. But from my memory, when a pass play breaks down, and Tyrod scrambles, he usually instinctively goes directly to the run, trusting his legs to bail him out. I don't remember him scanning the field looking for receivers breaking their routes for him very often. Maybe someone who has researched Tyrod can give us the scoop on his tendencies when a pass play breaks down.

 

It appears this way because the receiver he sees is already blocking most of the time so a throw wouldn't make sense. What he doesn't do often is scan back across the field. The preference would be for receivers to break their routes and try to get open by going the direction he is rolling, or at least to that half of the field.

[JM2009]

I have seen him do this but I think your right in that he becomes a runner when he decides to pull the ball down.....in which case it becomes BETTER for the receiver to turn blocker because Tyrod has that rare athletic ability as QB to turn playmaker.

 

Holmes and the rest of the free agent WR's dont replace Woods (but easily replace goodwin imo) but that was NEVER the plan......Sammy is the blue chip WR player on this team and there is everyone else.

 

Zay Jones? Now he might actually replace Woods production.

Jones was a nice pick, as long as he gets healthy.

[DallasBillsFan1]

Listening to analysts on Sirius XM (forgot who) but they felt Bills have some talent but no bench ... so ... if there are injuries, Bills are in big trouble. In comparison, they felt Miami has good talent and a deeper bench so they can weather the storm if they have injuries. And of course, the Pats have really good talent and a deep bench.

 

Conventional wisdom would show Bills in third place in the division. They didn't even mention the Jets on the small segment I listened to ... I think it's a forgone conclusion that the Jets are going to really suck this coming season.

 

But ... seasons have a strange way of unfolding sometimes.

 

Go Bills!