QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[transplantbillsfan]

 

ADJUSTED COMPLETION % - 5th

 

Huh??? :mellow:

 

Hope you can find some other uses for that publication which cost $20:

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/completionPct

You're doing a facepalm and posting a link to standard ESPN stats...?

 

Okay dude... if you say so

[John from Riverside]

40 million guaranteed in two years.

 

What do you call that?

the going rate

[transplantbillsfan]

If anyone's interested, Football Perspective is an interesting read for in-depth statistical analysis. I don't always agree with his conclusions, but he puts forth some good arguments on all aspects of the game. This is an article on QB stats, particularly YPA and it's various iterations: http://www.footballperspective.com/yards-per-attempt-where-does-it-go-wrong/.

 

He makes the case that you can glean a fair amount of information from Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A as they're fairly system-neutral, although it's impossible to totally eliminate the variability of a conservative passing offense vs. one that involves more high-risk throws. He also does a brief summary of YAC and its relative importance in QB evaluation. Taylor, in terms of Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A, was ranked 21st, 24th, and 18th respectively, which is about where I have him ranked personally.

"He puts forth good stuff because it's what I completely agree with."

 

That's the standard...

 

and round and round we go...

[BringBackOrton]

"He puts forth good stuff because it's what I completely agree with."

 

That's the standard...

 

and round and round we go...

Ironic.

[transplantbillsfan]

Ironic.

Hence the "and round and round we go"

 

duh...

Edited May 7, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[GoBills808]

"He puts forth good stuff because it's what I completely agree with."

 

That's the standard...

 

and round and round we go...

If you can't see the difference between a straightforward calculation like ANY/A and a subjective analysis a la Fahey, DYAR, QBR etc, this conversation can't go forward. We really need a baseline understanding of these evaluation techniques in order to continue. You're arguing against simple math right now, and basing your false equivalency around that fallacy.

 

You see the difference between using something like Fahey's analysis and a formula like net yards per attempt? Yours relies on subjectivity, inherent in which is personal preference and bias, whereas mine is simply a matter of what happened between the lines, period.

[transplantbillsfan]

If you can't see the difference between a straightforward calculation like ANY/A and a subjective analysis a la Fahey, DYAR, QBR etc, this conversation can't go forward. We really need a baseline understanding of these evaluation techniques in order to continue. You're arguing against simple math right now, and basing your false equivalency around that fallacy.

 

You see the difference between using something like Fahey's analysis and a formula like net yards per attempt? Yours relies on subjectivity, inherent in which is personal preference and bias, whereas mine is simply a matter of what happened between the lines, period.

Then why not just use Passer Rating?

 

It's the ultimate objective measure of a QB.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I imagine if Tyrod was about 4 inches taller, a few pounds heavier and white, we'd see a lot less of these "he just doesn't pass the eye test" nonsensical posts.

 

He's good. An unbiased observer can see it, and the numbers support it.

Lol and there it is

[Royale with Cheese]

Hey, transplant, thanks for this.

 

(For people who know me, this has turned into a typical Shaw essay. Ignore it or read it, whatever you like.)

 

I noticed Fahey a few months ago when someone at BBMB linked to one of his pieces. His stuff is interesting. I dumped on him, and continue to be skeptical, because I don't like "advanced" analysis from someone without credentials. I think he's still under 30. He has zero football experience, so far as I can tell. Possibly played in high school. I think it's extraordinarily difficult to become expert in a field without actually doing it, in this case playing it or coaching it. That's the only way you can have intense interaction with the people who actually understand what's going on.

 

Having said that, it IS possible to become expert without playing or coaching. It takes a lot of work, a lot of thinking, a lot of creativity. Bill James did it, for example. But those guys are few and far between.

 

As for Fahey, I think he actually has a chance to make it. It certainly seems that he is immersing himself into the game completely. He seems to have done nothing since he got to college except study pro football, analyze it and write about it. That's the only way to make if from the outside, and he seems to be doing it. Still, hard work alone doesn't do it. He needs to understand statistics and he needs to be a creative analyst.

 

Bottom line, for me, is that I pay more attention to Fahey than to most of the other stuff out there, because I have no confidence in most of the people who put it together. Football Outsiders is my only exception, and I at least think about what Fahey is doing.

 

As for this data, although he has to make subjective judgments to make these determinations (interceptable balls, failed reception, created reception) those at least are categories that I think a non-coach could make reasonable judgments about by watching film. In other words, if he's actually taken the time to catalog every pass by every QB, his data in those categories probably is pretty reliable. (As opposed to, for example, blocking performance by an offensive lineman, whose performance can't be evaluated effectively by a non-coach if you don't know what the lineman was supposed to do on the play).

 

What do all the ACCURACY categories mean? How is he evaluating "accuracy." Many fans complain that Tyrod doesn't throw the ball into tight windows, doesn't lead receivers well, etc. I've never been sure they're right, but there certainly are plenty of replays supporting the claim. I also don't trust fan analysis on a category like that. So how is Fahey measuring accuracy?

 

Is he third best or third worst in interceptable passes?

 

Finally, avoidable sacks isn't a useful number on its own. Taylor has a lot of sacks because he scrambles and he tries to keep pass plays alive. If he stays behind the line of scrimmage and gets sacked instead of giving up on the play and gaining 1 yard, yes it's an avoidable sack, but it might have been the right decision, because keeping the play alive may result, on average, in gains instead of losses. Plus, some of his avoidable sacks are plays where Taylor was trying to escape and got caught when he could have thrown the ball away. I want Taylor to try to escape in those situations, because when he does escape he often runs for a first down or more. In other words, the important stat is net yards in sack situations. That is, look at all the plays where the QB should be sacked and net all the yards lost to sacks, yards gained because the QB escaped and completed a pass and yards gain because the QB ran. If my QB has a high net, I don't care that he took more sacks than some guy who threw the ball away every time. I'd bet that if someone generated THAT stat, Taylor would be way up in the rankings. And, by the way, in doing that ranking, you have to determine avoidability objectively. That is, when the tackler is running at x miles an hour, he's 4 yards from the QB and the QB has Y room to maneuver, how many times does he avoid the sack? I guarantee you Taylor is way up on that list. That is, what's avoidable can't vary because the nature of the QB. In one sense, Eli has more or less no avoidable sacks, because he just isn't able to avoid any.

 

All of this adds to my sense that the coaches have a much better idea of what's going on. You can come up with all these detailed stats, evaluating little aspects of the game, but it's the combination of all of this kind of analysis that leads to the right conclusions about this This micro-examination, interesting as it is, doesn't really do the trick.

 

Although I don't agree with BigBuff's eyeball test analysis, in a sense it's correct. At least the eyeball test is about the big picture, and that's what really matters. The question is whether the QB is getting the job done. The problem with the eyeball test is that it's hard to say what "getting the job done" means. It's easy to say wins, but despite the QB's importance, it's still a team game, and there are a lot of reasons for losing beside the QB's play. So people go back to stats, because stats at least are an objective analysis (until you get done to avoidable sacks and such).

 

So here's my conclusion. Stats are the best thing we have to analyze QBs. They aren't perfect, but it's all we have. The fundamental point about stats is that they are useful when there is a high correlation between the stats and your eyeball. If the players who LOOK like they're the best running backs also have the most yards per carry, then there's high correlation between the stat and observed performance. That in turn means that a running back's rank in yards per carry is a decent way to evaluate how good he is.

 

The problem with the kind of analysis Fahey does is that the categories are so detailed that there is not good correlation in every case. That is, Taylor being ranked third in some category simply is not evidence that he's anything like the third best QB in the league. It just isn't. On rankings of these minute categories, the best QBs are all over the place. There is low correlation, which means that the stat isn't useful for evaluating the quality of the QB. May be useful for other things, but not evaluating overall performance.

 

And that's why always come back to the passer rating. The guys we all believe are the best QBs in the league have the highest passer ratings. High correlation, which means the stat is useful in separating good play from average or bad play. Same with the QBR, which evaluates more than passing. Neither is perfect, neither is complete, but they both give us a reasonably reliable way to compare the play of the various QBs.

 

So, although I know Fahey wasn't trying to rate the QBs generally, just for the record, let's be clear about Tyrod. In 2015, Taylor had the 8th best passer rating in the league, and the 7th best QBR. In 2016 he was 18th in passer rating and 9th in QBR. Those ratings are consistent with what I saw. (A good passer in 2015, not good enough in 2016, but his QBR is good because he's the best running QB in the league).

 

Bottom line for me is that Fahey's number's are interesting, but at the end of the day they don't prove much to me.

 

I didn't know about Fahey until 2 years ago and started paying more attention to him. He's in his mid 20's and from Ireland...I don't think they have high school American football there.

 

I started becoming skeptical of Fahey when he called Vernon Adams the best QB prospect in last years draft...ahead of Wentz and Goff. He said he deserved to be a first round pick. I bought it because I heard good things about Fahey. Well Adams went undrafted and cut in camp and now plays in the CFL....as a back up.

 

I know all experts get evaluations and predictions wrong but this one was really bad...head scratching bad.

Edited May 7, 2017 by Teeflebees

[Stank_Nasty]

I didn't know about Fahey until 2 years ago and started paying more attention to him. He's in his mid 20's and from Ireland...I don't think they have high school American football there.

 

I started becoming skeptical of Fahey when he called Vernon Adams the best QB prospect in last years draft...ahead of Wentz and Goff. He said he deserved to be a first round pick. I bought it because I heard good things about Fahey. Well Adams went undrafted and cut in camp and now plays in the CFL....as a back up.

 

I know all experts get evaluations and predictions wrong but this one was really bad...head scratching bad.

well then this settles it. can we all please go back to arguing about comp%, Rating, and other stats for the layman.

 

and the bolded made me LOL. that's just classic there! hahaha.

[Big Gun]

Cian Fahey =

[BobChalmers]

There's an actual name for this kind of logical fallacy.

 

I can't think of the name right now, though.

 

Anyone...?

 

 

Besides, did I post an actual assessment by him of Taylor? Do you believe he skews his data because he's enamored with Taylor?

 

Confirmation Bias?

[San-O]

You're doing a facepalm and posting a link to standard ESPN stats...?

 

Okay dude... if you say so

 

I'm not talking about the QBR, just simple stats: like sacks.

 

Most sacked QB in the league because he can't make decisions and waits: holds the ball too long.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks

[racketmaster]

Here are a few thoughts regarding Taylor’s contract having skimmed through this thread:

Taylor did not just accept the Bills 2 year deal because he had no other options. If there were no other options for him in the league the Bills would have been stupid to pay him 30 million over 2 seasons (that is still a lot of $ to pay a QB that no other team wants as their starter). It is likely that Taylor looked at other options and decided that Buffalo was the best fit for him and that he could “bet on himself” again. Every player is different when it comes to contracts. Some are willing to take risks and others are not. Taylor showed that he was willing to “bet on himself” when he decided to sign with the Bills instead of Denver in 2015. He turned down more $ to sign with the Bills because this was a place he thought he could start right away and prove that he was a good QB. I believe Taylor would have been fine finishing out 2016 and becoming a free agent but the Bills wanted to protect themselves and offered a sizeable contract to Taylor, one that was hard to pass up. But even that contact gave the Bills an out after the 2016 season. Most players don’t sign such deals but Taylor gave the Bills a chance to see him for another year before deciding long-term. Again, he believed in himself and was willing to “bet on himself” that he would play well in 2016 to warrant the Bills picking up the option or being paid well by another team if the Bills declined the option. Taylor showed in 2 instances that he believed in his play and the financials would work out as a result of his on the field production.

 

This brings us to the 2017 deal. McDermott comes in and needs time to review Taylor. As it appears, Whaley was ready to move on from Taylor. But McDermott analyzes Taylor’s game and determines Taylor is his best option. MC has been around good qbs with McNabb and Newton so he knows what a franchise qb looks like. MC is also smart and knows leverage. He could pick up the option but why not see if a better deal can be negotiated. MC looks around the NFL at other options. This gives the Bills some leverage as they are not completely beholden to Taylor. Taylor in turn looks at the situation. In Buffalo, he gets an OC that he has a very good relationship with in Dennison. He is comfortable with the OC and the offense having been in it for a year in Baltimore. Taylor likes Dennison’s offense and believes he can excel in the system. There are some solid pieces on offense (veteran o-line, McCoy, Clay and Watkins if healthy). Taylor looks at the situation and says why not “bet on himself” again. Take a renegotiated deal that still pays him 30 million over 2 years. He is the unquestioned starter in Buffalo and will be in an offense that he is familiar with and can hit the ground running. He does not think glass half full. Taylor is not thinking about what happens if I get hurt or if I struggle. Taylor looks at it like the Bills are the best situation for him to succeed. And if he has success as a QB, the $ will always follow (whether that is here or somewhere else). So he signs the renegotiated deal rather than go to another team. The negatives with other teams would be (1) potentially rebuilding, (2) lack as many offensive weapons, (3) have a lesser O-line, (4) lack of familiarity with coaching staff and players, (5) an offensive system he may not feel is a good fit etc. Looking at the many negatives of other teams could easily lead Taylor back to wanting to stay in Buffalo and take a little less money now but with the chance to make more down the road.

 

This brings me to my last point about the contract. Every player is different as some players will try to negotiate every last penny from an organization while others will take less money to stay or get into a situation they feel comfortable. The examples are endless as we see Brady taking much less $ to stay in a situation he feels comfortable and allow his team to maintain an add more talent. Winning is more important than fighting for extra $. Other QBs like Flacco or even Brees chase the $ often to the detriment of their teams ability to add pieces around them. This happens at every position, not just qbs as each player is wired differently. I believe Taylor falls closer to the Brady mentality rather than Flacco. Taylor knows he spent 4 years of his career as a backup and he believes in himself. Time is short and he wants to prove that he is a good QB in the NFL. Taking another qb spot in which he would have to wait (Denver) or taking a less than ideal situation (Jets – rebuilding) is not as appealing to him. Taylor has had opportunities to chase the $ and has declined. If Taylor had that so of mentality he likely would have forced the Bills hand and went into free agency trying to maximize his salary (even if it was for another 1 or 2 million a year).

[Crusher]

I didn't know about Fahey until 2 years ago and started paying more attention to him. He's in his mid 20's and from Ireland...I don't think they have high school American football there.

 

I started becoming skeptical of Fahey when he called Vernon Adams the best QB prospect in last years draft...ahead of Wentz and Goff. He said he deserved to be a first round pick. I bought it because I heard good things about Fahey. Well Adams went undrafted and cut in camp and now plays in the CFL....as a back up.

 

I know all experts get evaluations and predictions wrong but this one was really bad...head scratching bad.

It figures that the OP would endorse this guy.

 

Anyone who supports this silly Tyrod is good agenda is good in his book.

[Bill_with_it]

 

I'm not talking about the QBR, just simple stats: like sacks.

 

Most sacked QB in the league because he can't make decisions and waits: holds the ball too long.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks

Surely it had nothing to do with his right tackle being atrociously awful, had nothing to do with the characters line up to play wr for him, surely had nothing to do with a rb coach running an offense he didnt even design, had nothing to do with the lack of practice time he hd with those wonderful wrs Whaley had on the roster last year.

[GoBills808]

Then why not just use Passer Rating?

 

It's the ultimate objective measure of a QB.

Not for me, but I don't actually have an ultimate objective measure. Passer rating is a good metric but IMO it's not without flaws, chief among them being putting too high a premium on completions (essentially counts them twice when calculating rating, because YPA and COMP% are both part of the equation) and penalizing INTs too heavily (why should an INT be the net equivalent of -100 yards, while a TD is only the net equivalent of +80 yards according to passer rating?). Both of these are areas wherein a QB such as Taylor, managing a low risk, low volume system, would have his performance weighted higher in passer rating than the modern game would recognize. It's outdated and predicated upon stats from the 60s and 70s, and doesn't take into account the evolution of high-volume passing offenses. It doesn't account for either rushing yards, which would aid Taylor's case, or sacks, which would detract from it. I prefer ANY/A to passer rating but I'll admit that it's personal preference (doesn't take rushing yards into account either, but that's OK with me because I don't see a correlation between QB rushing yards and any measurable statistic related to winning).

 

Look at Bradford's 2016 season with the Vikings. Nobody would say he was 'great', but passer rating puts him as the 6th highest ranked QB in the league. This while throwing for 3800 yards, 20 TDs, and 5 INTs (sound familiar?) with a COMP% of 71+. He was essentially Taylor 2015, and the Vikings went 8-8 and finished 3rd in their division. Passer rating does not accurately reflect, in these particular circumstances which guys like Taylor in 2015 and Bradford last season posted high rankings, the degree to which they actually played 'good' quarterback and helped their team succeed. There's a guy like this every season, who plays in a conservative offense and posts a high passer rating but doesn't move the needle as far as modern quarterbacking in concerned: it was Bradford, then Taylor before him, Wilson in 2014, either Foles or Kaepernick in 2013 take your pick, RG3 in 2012, Alex Smith in 2011...all guys that posted top 10 QB ratings without being great NFL quarterbacks that particular season.

[Crusher]

Not for me, but I don't actually have an ultimate objective measure. Passer rating is a good metric but IMO it's not without flaws, chief among them being putting too high a premium on completions (essentially counts them twice when calculating rating, because YPA and COMP% are both part of the equation) and penalizing INTs too heavily (why should an INT be the net equivalent of -100 yards, while a TD is only the net equivalent of +80 yards according to passer rating?). Both of these are areas wherein a QB such as Taylor, managing a low risk, low volume system, would have his performance weighted higher in passer rating than the modern game would recognize. It's outdated and predicated upon stats from the 60s and 70s, and doesn't take into account the evolution of high-volume passing offenses. It doesn't account for either rushing yards, which would aid Taylor's case, or sacks, which would detract from it. I prefer ANY/A to passer rating but I'll admit that it's personal preference (doesn't take rushing yards into account either, but that's OK with me because I don't see a correlation between QB rushing yards and any measurable statistic related to winning).

 

Look at Bradford's 2016 season with the Vikings. Nobody would say he was 'great', but passer rating puts him as the 6th highest ranked QB in the league. This while throwing for 3800 yards, 20 TDs, and 5 INTs (sound familiar?) with a COMP% of 71+. He was essentially Taylor 2015, and the Vikings went 8-8 and finished 3rd in their division. Passer rating does not accurately reflect, in these particular circumstances which guys like Taylor in 2015 and Bradford last season posted high rankings, the degree to which they actually played 'good' quarterback and helped their team succeed. There's a guy like this every season, who plays in a conservative offense and posts a high passer rating but doesn't move the needle as far as modern quarterbacking in concerned: it was Bradford, then Taylor before him, Wilson in 2014, either Foles or Kaepernick in 2013 take your pick, RG3 in 2012, Alex Smith in 2011...all guys that posted top 10 QB ratings without being great NFL quarterbacks that particular season.

This is good stuff.

[BADOLBILZ]

I didn't know about Fahey until 2 years ago and started paying more attention to him. He's in his mid 20's and from Ireland...I don't think they have high school American football there.

 

I started becoming skeptical of Fahey when he called Vernon Adams the best QB prospect in last years draft...ahead of Wentz and Goff. He said he deserved to be a first round pick. I bought it because I heard good things about Fahey. Well Adams went undrafted and cut in camp and now plays in the CFL....as a back up.

 

I know all experts get evaluations and predictions wrong but this one was really bad...head scratching bad.

 

 

Actually, that is incorrect.

 

He joined the CFL in late May a few weeks before the season started.........not knowing how to even play the Canadian game........and finished the season as the starter and had Montreal on a roll.

 

Looking forward to watching him in the CFL this year.......just wish he was on Hamilton.

 

Not trying to push Cian's agenda........a couple years ago he was down on Taylor so not sure why that changed.......but Vernon Adams is an interesting prospect......CFL MVP's and an NFL future would certainly not surprise me.

[mannc]

 

I'm not talking about the QBR, just simple stats: like sacks.

 

Most sacked QB in the league because he can't make decisions and waits: holds the ball too long.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks

I think this is the most legitimate criticism of Tyrod that I've read here. He often holds the ball too long, and he also tends to bail out of a clean pocket. I think those things can improve with more nfl game experience. Edited May 7, 2017 by mannc