WEEK 7 - ALL 22 O-LINE/ QB UNFORCED ERROR REVIEW

[MAJBobby]

I don't have all 22 but I did see a few times he checked down when he had a wide open down field target. I said in an earlier post he seems very afraid of throwing a pick. He has to let it fly sometimes even Montana got picked off once in a while. Playing in fear is never good.

@yardsperpass posting really shows this a lot

[Mike in Horseheads]

I don't have all 22 but I did see a few times he checked down when he had a wide open down field target. I said in an earlier post he seems very afraid of throwing a pick. He has to let it fly sometimes even Montana got picked off once in a while. Playing in fear is never good.

I agree.

[Boatdrinks]

Good job. I agree I liked the throw to clay in the seam. Throw seemed late and that is why he had to step up in the pocket in the mess, but hey I am OK with that, also if it was thrown earlier like I think it should have Clay may score there.

 

If I may make a suggestion, in future talk about ball placement a little more. because there are routes that are completed, but have 0 YAC because of poor or improper ball placement, you touch on it with the slant a bit, but that would be an example of look a completed pass good, could have been better though with proper ball placement.

 

Or vice versa, this looked like a bad throw however that is the only place that the ball could be placed IE my guy makes the catch or no one.

 

 

 

 

 

Some of my comments

 

 

Yes, I think TT has had many throws that were late / could have resulted in bigger gain or TD this season. That's about the third or fourth one to Clay this year in that category. Seems anything crossing over the middle is delivered late and slightly behind as well. Much of the lack of YAC is TTs placement, a lot of it is also the lack of dynamic playmakers at WR that slip/ break tackles . Especially without Watkins for the majority of this season. The Bills are likely near the bottom of the NFL in YAC. Severe lack of talent there and the injuries make it more so.

[Doc]

I don't have all 22 but I did see a few times he checked down when he had a wide open down field target. I said in an earlier post he seems very afraid of throwing a pick. He has to let it fly sometimes even Montana got picked off once in a while. Playing in fear is never good.

 

Yup.

[John from Riverside]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

 

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /

How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

 

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

 

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)

 

 

_______ ______________________

 

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 40 - (last week was 31 total pass plays for reference)

 

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 12/40 snaps - or 30% of snaps. (last week was 16%. Essentially the line was twice as bad this week as they were last week). In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 30% of his drop backs. Looking back through the history of my doing this analysis.. 30% is the worst breakdown percentage since the 2015 Texans game which was a 28% breakdown rate.. and is the worst percentage I have seen.. which is saying a lot based on some of the O Line train wreck performances from last year. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.

 

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 28/40 snaps or 70% - (last week was 84%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 70% of the time

 

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 5/28 snaps or 18% (last week was 12%). Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 5 unforced errors by my count.. so he was right on the borderline.

 

Bottom Line:

 

1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half other than Jordan Mills getting beaten a couple of times by Wake

 

 

2ND HALF PASS PROTECT WAS SCARY BAD - 10 of the 12 pass protect breakdowns occurred in the 2nd half. There were multiple offenders. Mills continued to struggle, with Miller being the next worst offender. Wood, Incognito and even the usually solid Cordy Glenn all had moments when they struggled with pass protection.

.

 

MILLS AND SPEED RUSH - Last week against the 49ers I mentioned how Mills was never really cleanly beaten by his man but he was making me nervous giving up a lot of ground on outside speed rushes. This week it caught up to him. Cameron Wake consistently beat him around the outside with speed rushes and Mills was pretty much a tire fire for most of the day. I'm hoping it's just a one off matchup issue as Wake is a premier talent who can get low and bend around the edge with the best of them. Either way.. I do think the book is out on Mills now unfortunately.. he can be beat with speed.

 

 

 

MILLER STRUGGLES IN 2ND HALF - John Miller has been playing exceptionally well this year but last Sunday he was overmatched by Suh on several plays.. and looked somewhat lost or confused on some others. The play below shows him getting beaten by Suh ..forcing a TT scramble.

 

 

 

TYROD HAS A COMPLETE GAME.. BUT COMMITS ONE CRITICAL UNFORCED ERROR - Last week I talked about how we were all waiting for a single game where TT puts it all together and displays all the types of throws he is capable of making in one game. This week it all came together. When I say "complete" game I don't mean a perfect game. What I mean by "complete" is a game where TT executes a variety of different throws that illustrate his work towards addressing his issues.

 

Many have criticized him for not attacking the deep middle. There were several examples of him showing great footwork, pocket presence and executing tough intermediate throws over the middle last Sunday in Miami.

 

There are many things to like about this play directly below. TT calmly side stepping right to avoid the pressure coming up the middle from Incognito's man. TT .stepping into the throw.. throwing over top of the safety 47.. throwing deep down the middle of the field in the red zone. This is the type of aggressive throw we need to see more of from TT.

 

 

Poor footwork, lack of anticipation, not throwing into tight windows, and not utilizing Clay have been legitimate criticisms of TT up to this point. Below is an example where he demonstrates progress on all 4 of these issues in one throw

 

 

TT has rarely demonstrated a willingness to attempt... or the ability to hit deep seam routes. See the example below of him hitting a deep seam route to Clay. Again.. an example of TT stepping up in a messy pocket.. getting hit.. and making an aggressive completion.

 

 

 

The one glaring missing throw type has been the deep sideline "Go" route that he has historically been so good at throwing. Last week he missed Goodwin due to the line not holding up. Not this week.

 

Note Taylor takes a 3 step drop, steps up..hangs tough in the pocket and takes a hit right after delivering the perfect strike to Goodwin.

 

 

 

With all the good shown previously TT unfortunately committed an Unforced Error at the worst time. 3rd and short at the Dolphins 40 yd line with 1:04 left in 1st half. If TT executes here the Bills at least get a FG attempt.. at best they get a chance to score a TD and pad the lead at the half. Unfortunately TT just flat out misses this relatively routine slant throw to Goodwin.. no excuses here. Huge missed opportunity on TT's part.

 

 

 

SUMMARY - Most of the offensive passing game struggles can be attributed to Jordan Mills having a really... really bad day against Cameron Wake. Couple that with an overall disastrous Q4 for the OLine and you have a situation where 25 points is not enough to win this one. Tyrod had a very solid game with relatively few unforced errors considering they had 40 pass attempts. Unfortunately one of TT's unforced errors came on a crucial 3rd down in Miami territory at the end of the 1st half costing them a likely 3 or more points that they could have used.

 

I come away from this game happy with TT's progress and very nervous about Jordan Mills as he has been slipping the last few weeks. Hopefully Anthony Lynn will know to give Mills some tight end or RB help against future speed rushers.

 

Have faith Bills fans...In my opinion our QB showed much progress against Miami. He's certainly not there yet.. but I think he is very close to performing like the mid level NFL starter we are paying him to be.

 

O Line Pass block grades

 

GLENN - B

INCOGNITO - C

WOOD - B

MILLER - C-

MILLS- D-

 

PLAYS OF NOTE

 

Q1: TT executes accurate roll out throw to Hunter

Q1: 6:18 - Jordan Mills is beaten around the edge by Wake forcing TT to scramble

 

Q1: 5:48 - UNFORCED ERROR - Delay of game on TT

 

Q1 5:14 - Mills beaten again by Wake.. gives up a sack

 

Q1 :58 - UNFORCED ERROR - Poorly thrown fade route to Hunter

 

Q2: - TT executes nice completion over the deep middle

 

Q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT bails out of pocket early and doesn't see open Hunter on hitch route

 

Q2: 3:12 - Excellent intermediate seam pass to Clay

 

Q2: 2:35 - Great execution on timing route fitting ball into tight window between two defenders to Clay

 

Q2: 1:04 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT throws behind Goodwin on critical 3rd down slant

 

Q3 - 6:00 - Bomb to Goodwin.. a thing of beauty

 

Q4 - 15:00 - Incognito beaten to the inside.. TT still makes solid throw with guy in his face

 

Q4: UNFORCED ERROR - Sack.. TT locks onto #1 read too long and takes sack because he doesn't look for other options soon enough

 

Q4 : 8: 02 - Mills blows assignment causing pressure

 

Q4: 3:56 - Mills and Miller allow Suh to get through untouched allowing him to blow up called screen play. Should have at least chipped him

 

Q4: Mills beaten by Wake again

 

Q4: 2:20 - Cordy Glenn is pushed back into TT causing sack

 

Q4 1:43 - Suh blows by John Miller

 

Q4 1:37 - Holding on Jordan Mills

 

Q4 1:05 - Wake breaks through a double team of Mills and Miller and gets pressure

 

Q4: 51 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT doesn't trust protection and throws ball out of back of end zone unnecessarily

 

Q4: - Excellent deep middle throw to Tate at goal line setting up TD

Nice as always Bo

 

I really felt this was a case of injuries catching up with us......being beat up by Miami on both OL and DL

 

You cannot give up 200 yards rushing to one player and consistantly win

[MAJBobby]

Yes, I think TT has had many throws that were late / could have resulted in bigger gain or TD this season. That's about the third or fourth one to Clay this year in that category. Seems anything crossing over the middle is delivered late and slightly behind as well. Much of the lack of YAC is TTs placement, a lot of it is also the lack of dynamic playmakers at WR that slip/ break tackles . Especially without Watkins for the majority of this season. The Bills are likely near the bottom of the NFL in YAC. Severe lack of talent there and the injuries make it more so.

Agree, people look at the pass as completed. if it was accurate, on time maybe it was a 20 yard gain instead of a 8 yard gain. or better yet a TD.

 

I will give him that his Go routes on the sideline are typically on time, and perfect placement. Goodwin NEVER broke stride and took it too the house. Also example on the Goodwin TD, if he was late or off mark the Safety gets there, ala the second one.

[PolishDave]

Agree, people look at the pass as completed. if it was accurate, on time maybe it was a 20 yard gain instead of a 8 yard gain. or better yet a TD.

 

But it was a 20 yard gain or thereabouts. No way Clay scores on that play. He doesn't have the breakaway speed to outrun that safety.

 

You are being awful nitpicky. Completing a 20 yard pass isn't good enough for you. Taylor is never going to become Tom Brady/Dan Marino. Get over it.

 

You obviously have your mind made up about Tyrod and how much you hate him. Carry on...

[Bocephuz]

Agree, people look at the pass as completed. if it was accurate, on time maybe it was a 20 yard gain instead of a 8 yard gain. or better yet a TD.

 

I will give him that his Go routes on the sideline are typically on time, and perfect placement. Goodwin NEVER broke stride and took it too the house. Also example on the Goodwin TD, if he was late or off mark the Safety gets there, ala the second one.

Those type of pinpoint accuracy issues that limit YAC are what separates the elite Qbs ( Rogers, Brady) with the mid range average QBs.( which we are hoping TT can be) . I don't think many people expect TT to get to that elite level.. and neither do the Bills as the deal they have on the table pays him slightly more than average of starters.

[fridge]

I appreciate the effort, but your bias bleeds through in nearly every comment. To conclude that Tyrod showed progress is shocking, to say the least. He may not have been as bad as people are saying, but progress? Come on, man.

[dave mcbride]

I appreciate the effort, but your bias bleeds through in nearly every comment. To conclude that Tyrod showed progress is shocking, to say the least. He may not have been as bad as people are saying, but progress? Come on, man.

Factor in the circumstances. The WR corps was a joke, and Shady was severely limited to say the least. The line got eaten alive to boot.

[John from Riverside]

I appreciate the effort, but your bias bleeds through in nearly every comment. To conclude that Tyrod showed progress is shocking, to say the least. He may not have been as bad as people are saying, but progress? Come on, man.

I think that if you look at what people are saying are weaknesses you could call it progress....

 

"cant throw over the middle"

 

He obviously can and showed it.....and coverted 3rd downs doing it.

 

The "cant play from behind" is not valid......we were down almost immediately in this game (in the niners game too as a matter of fact)

 

So now its the "win the game at the end when the D is playing like crap and down to his 3rd best WR targets"

 

He still has that one to over come

[UB2SF]

Always appreciate the effort and insight!

[fridge]

I think that if you look at what people are saying are weaknesses you could call it progress....

 

"cant throw over the middle"

 

He obviously can and showed it.....and coverted 3rd downs doing it.

 

The "cant play from behind" is not valid......we were down almost immediately in this game (in the niners game too as a matter of fact)

 

So now its the "win the game at the end when the D is playing like crap and down to his 3rd best WR targets"

 

He still has that one to over come

 

I understand that we're in an exceptionally long playoff drought, but have you really forgotten what good QB is supposed to look like? He was not good in the second half and I never thought we had a chance once the Dolphins took the lead. I have no idea why you're bringing up 3rd downs as a positive. Tyrod created phantom pressure and stopped going through his reads on consecutive third downs, and took a costly sack on another.

 

While I've got your attention, the proper use of an ellipses is three periods. It's been bugging me and I wasn't sure if you knew that or not.

Edited October 25, 2016 by fridge

[Maury Ballstein]

I think that if you look at what people are saying are weaknesses you could call it progress....

 

"cant throw over the middle"

 

He obviously can and showed it.....and coverted 3rd downs doing it.

 

The "cant play from behind" is not valid......we were down almost immediately in this game (in the niners game too as a matter of fact)

 

So now its the "win the game at the end when the D is playing like crap and down to his 3rd best WR targets"

 

He still has that one to over come

Oh boy.

[Boatdrinks]

I think that if you look at what people are saying are weaknesses you could call it progress....

 

"cant throw over the middle"

 

He obviously can and showed it.....and coverted 3rd downs doing it.

 

The "cant play from behind" is not valid......we were down almost immediately in this game (in the niners game too as a matter of fact)

 

So now its the "win the game at the end when the D is playing like crap and down to his 3rd best WR targets"

 

He still has that one to over come

Well, I think a great QB can elevate the play of whoever is around him. Whoever the WRs may be. Can Tyrod throw over the middle? Yes. His timing is off though, and most throws are behind the WR. He rarely " throws them open". Can he play from behind? Ok they were down 3-0 early. Great. Can he lead you from behind late , when you have one maybe two drive tops to get the go- ahead score? You know, when your team is facing a great QB, and they go ahead late ? You groan when you see almost two minutes on the clock and think " well we just lost" . 4th quarter comebacks are often cited as a trait for a great QB. Tyrod doesn't do this often.

So from this perspective, what can we conclude as Bills fans? Tyrod Taylor is a fairly average NFL QB. He does some things, like escaping pressure and running in the open field exceptionally well. He throws a pretty deep sideline ball. His overall passing skills leave much to be desired and are far from elite level. That's fine . It just comes down to the Bills being happy with Tyrods performance, or wanting to find an elite NFL passer. The contract option won't pay Tyrod like an elite QB, so maybe they pick it up until they find something better. He will serve as a bridge to a top QB. If the Bills finish with 8 wins or more, look for this to be the plan of action going forward. 7 wins or less and TTs option doesn't get picked up. Just my opinion.

[r00tabaga]

Oh boy.

Great take. Very insightful. Your avatar dog is cute.

 

Nobody is saying TT is great btw.

Edited October 25, 2016 by r00tabaga

[John from Riverside]

 

I understand that we're in an exceptionally long playoff drought, but have you really forgotten what good QB is supposed to look like? He was not good in the second half and I never thought we had a chance once the Dolphins took the lead. I have no idea why you're bringing up 3rd downs as a positive. Tyrod created phantom pressure and stopped going through his reads on consecutive third downs, and took a costly sack on another.

 

While I've got your attention, the proper use of an ellipses is three periods. It's been bugging me and I wasn't sure if you knew that or not.

Perhaps you missed the part of the analysis where our OL got victimized in the 2nd half

 

You know those two things are related right?

Oh boy.

Cool dog!

[r00tabaga]

At least we don't have Brock O... That dude is paid!

 

Looking around the league, we're not as bad off as many others are. There are some bad, not even average, bad QB's out there.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that the entire game breaks down to 1 thing that's pretty simple and that's Rush defense. I don't have the energy to do the research but I wonder how many teams in history have given up a 200 yard runner and won? I'd venture to say that you may win 20% or less when you give up a 200 yard rusher. You cannot be dominated up front like that and win in the NFL -period. You also can't sit Jay Ajayi on your fantasy benching because he is playing against your beloved Buffalo Bills!!

[John from Riverside]

Well, I think a great QB can elevate the play of whoever is around him. Whoever the WRs may be. Can Tyrod throw over the middle? Yes. His timing is off though, and most throws are behind the WR. He rarely " throws them open". Can he play from behind? Ok they were down 3-0 early. Great. Can he lead you from behind late , when you have one maybe two drive tops to get the go- ahead score? You know, when your team is facing a great QB, and they go ahead late ? You groan when you see almost two minutes on the clock and think " well we just lost" . 4th quarter comebacks are often cited as a trait for a great QB. Tyrod doesn't do this often.

So from this perspective, what can we conclude as Bills fans? Tyrod Taylor is a fairly average NFL QB. He does some things, like escaping pressure and running in the open field exceptionally well. He throws a pretty deep sideline ball. His overall passing skills leave much to be desired and are far from elite level. That's fine . It just comes down to the Bills being happy with Tyrods performance, or wanting to find an elite NFL passer. The contract option won't pay Tyrod like an elite QB, so maybe they pick it up until they find something better. He will serve as a bridge to a top QB. If the Bills finish with 8 wins or more, look for this to be the plan of action going forward. 7 wins or less and TTs option doesn't get picked up. Just my opinion.

Perhaps Tyrod is just not a "great QB" I will say this again.....even starting level qbs are hard to find in the NFL....which is why we should keep drafting them......this year happened to be a good year for drafting qbs (we actually did draft one)

 

I will say this.....Miami's game could have been even worse then it was given the amount of times TT escaped from what would have been sacks on other QBs and made things happen.....he generated 3 scores in this game with backups to backups to throw to.....and a defense that gave up 200 yards rushing to ONE player

 

Tyrod did not lead them all the way back to win the Miami game.......that is a crit and a fair one. He did do some nice things in this game.