Rocky Landing Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Compare the respective 1st down conversion rates. I bet I know who wins this one. Well, I looked it up: Edelman had a 60% conversion rate, and Hogan had a 50% conversion rate. For a little more context, though, it should be noted that NE* was fifth in first downs, and Buffalo was tied with Minnesota at 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 (edited) But, Edelman's drop percentage was higher than Hogan's 7.69 to 6.18%, respectively. 69.3% with Brady* vs 61% with TT/EJ? That sort of explains itself, doesn't it? Why do we assume that Hogan will make up a 97 target gap with Edelman (with Edelman still in the slot)? If Hogan is within 30 targets of Edleman it will mean he is hurt. Hogan had 59 targets and Edleman was on pace for 156. The offenses are different but that gap is not going to close. Hogan may go up to 85 targets or so but Edelman will still be 130+. He is their running game. But, Edelman's drop percentage was higher than Hogan's 7.69 to 6.18%, respectively. 69.3% with Brady* vs 61% with TT/EJ? That sort of explains itself, doesn't it? Brady completed 64.4% of his passes and TT 63.7%. That's not terribly different. Edited August 31, 2016 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Why do we assume that Hogan will make up a 97 target gap with Edelman (with Edelman still in the slot)? If Hogan is within 30 targets of Edleman it will mean he is hurt. Hogan had 59 targets and Edleman was on pace for 156. The offense are different but that gap is no going to close. Hogan may go up to 85 targets or so but Edelman will still be 130+. He is their running game. Brady completed 64.4% of his passes and TT 63.7%. That's not terribly different. And with the note that Edelman is the running game (i.e. More inside, short of the sticks, type of targets).... The conversion rate for firsts being a 10% gap according to rocky really stands out even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Why do we assume that Hogan will make up a 97 target gap with Edelman (with Edelman still in the slot)? If Hogan is within 30 targets of Edleman it will mean he is hurt. Hogan had 59 targets and Edleman was on pace for 156. The offense are different but that gap is no going to close. Hogan may go up to 85 targets or so but Edelman will still be 130+. He is their running game. Brady completed 64.4% of his passes and TT 63.7%. That's not terribly different. And with the note that Edelman is the running game (i.e. More inside, short of the sticks, type of targets).... The conversion rate for firsts being a 10% gap according to rocky really stands out even more Sure, sure, and sure. I get all of this. (And, I do realize that I have invited something of a dog-pile by predicting that Hogan succeeds in NE*) But, I don't really think any of these stats are all that meaningful in context. My contention is that Hogan will fit in much better in NE* than he did in Buffalo, and become a favored target of Brady*. If Edelman were in Buffalo last season, would his numbers be anywhere near where they were in NE*? I would think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Sure, sure, and sure. I get all of this. (And, I do realize that I have invited something of a dog-pile by predicting that Hogan succeeds in NE*) But, I don't really think any of these stats are all that meaningful in context. My contention is that Hogan will fit in much better in NE* than he did in Buffalo, and become a favored target of Brady*. If Edelman were in Buffalo last season, would his numbers be anywhere near where they were in NE*? I would think not.I have said that I think Hogan has some success in New England. I added him on one of my fantasy teams. I'm taking issue with the fact that Brady will prefer Hogan to Edelman. There is no chance of that and nothing to support that happening. Edelman gets 10 targets a game. Hogan will never see anywhere close to that as the 3rd-5th pass catching option and playing on the outside. There will likely be a 50+ target gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I have said that I think Hogan has some success in New England. I added him on one of my fantasy teams. I'm taking issue with the fact that Brady will prefer Hogan to Edelman. There is no chance of that and nothing to support that happening. Edelman gets 10 targets a game. Hogan will never see anywhere close to that as the 3rd-5th pass catching option and playing on the outside. There will likely be a 50+ target gap. Yeah, but I'm saying that he becomes a favorite target-- not starts out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Sure, sure, and sure. I get all of this. (And, I do realize that I have invited something of a dog-pile by predicting that Hogan succeeds in NE*) But, I don't really think any of these stats are all that meaningful in context. My contention is that Hogan will fit in much better in NE* than he did in Buffalo, and become a favored target of Brady*. If Edelman were in Buffalo last season, would his numbers be anywhere near where they were in NE*? I would think not. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes a jump... Likewise I wouldn't be shocked if he disappears after coming up short on a couple third downs. The guys physically gifted.... But whether it's an issue with effort or smarts or coaching or opportunities -- he also doesn't seem to reach that potential. Most would count me among the anti-hogan group, but I think he has a spot in the league and was among the first excited about the signing. I just think he has a specific type of depth role until he proves he's taken the next step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Yeah, but I'm saying that he becomes a favorite target-- not starts out that way. I could see Brady liking him but not ever preferring him to Edelman. He provides the same thing that Welker did. It's short area quickness and the ability to get open. That's why he gets so many looks. Hogan will replace Lafell. He will need to prove that he can get open and get down the field. If he can he will see 5-6 targets a game. If he can't, he won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I predict Hogan is on TMZ smoking cigs and flicking off the cameraman by week 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I could see Brady liking him but not ever preferring him to Edelman. He provides the same thing that Welker did. It's short area quickness and the ability to get open. That's why he gets so many looks. Hogan will replace Lafell. He will need to prove that he can get open and get down the field. If he can he will see 5-6 targets a game. If he can't, he won't. Who is better: Welker in his prime, or Edelman? (who, I assume, is currently in his prime) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 (edited) Edelman hung on to the ball in the clutch in the Superbowl despite being whacked from behind. Welker under less pressure dropped it. I think Welker technically was better but give me Edelman's edge, desire and fire any day of the week. As much as a p.o.s. as it makes him. Edited September 1, 2016 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Edelman hung on to the ball in the clutch in the Superbowl despite being whacked from behind. Welker under less pressure dropped it. I think Welker technically was better but give me Edelman's edge, desire and fire any day of the week. As much as a p.o.s. as it makes him. You can't tell me Welker, in his prime, wasn't a clutch player! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Who is better: Welker in his prime, or Edelman? (who, I assume, is currently in his prime)It's a coin flip to me. Welker had some crucial mistakes but was really good for a long period of time. Edleman is a bigger punk. Both are great players though that fit perfectly in the New England offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 You can't tell me Welker, in his prime, wasn't a clutch player! I'd take Edelman in the clutch. Every time and twice on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Still don't miss Hogan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Still don't miss Hogan give it time. they say time heals all wounds. This one might fester and become really irritating. too soon to call though either way in opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 give it time. they say time heals all wounds. This one might fester and become really irritating. too soon to call though either way in opinion Too soon to call, but never too soon to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Too soon to call, but never too soon to predict. Fair enuff Landing !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Well, I looked it up: Edelman had a 60% conversion rate, and Hogan had a 50% conversion rate. For a little more context, though, it should be noted that NE* was fifth in first downs, and Buffalo was tied with Minnesota at 28th. That was all Hogan's (and ex-DE Mario Willaims') fault - right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 6, 2016 Share Posted September 6, 2016 When was the last time Marshall had to pee in a cup? @MMehtaNYDN Brandon Marshall on Pats WR Chris Hogan on @insidetheNFL 2night: "This is the secret weapon. He is a monster. Type of guy I want on my team" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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