TOD 7/28: Most assume the Pats* own the division - Do you?

[BuffaloBill]

Thoughts?

[DCBongo]

They do until they don't. As Rick Flair would say "To be the man, you got to beat the man". They can't be good forever; wait till next year could be now!

[YoloinOhio]

Yes

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Yes

 

 

 

 

CBF

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Duh

[VinceFerragamo]

They better go 1-3 or 0-4 without him.

 

And Cleveland better beat his rusty ass when he gets back. The Bills will definitely win the first game of 2.

 

The decline is now.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

They better go 1-3 or 0-4 without him.

 

And Cleveland better beat his rusty ass when he gets back. The Bills will definitely win the first game of 2.

 

The decline is now.

 

Good luck with that.

[thebandit27]

Even without Brady, going 1-3 with Garoppolo, I have them at 11-5, so yes.

[Dave in Avon Lake now]

As I said yesterday, Garrapolo may be better than most give him credit for. Pats defense is very good and will be prepared. A couple of chinks in the armor late last year showed up when Jets won in late December, but like most have said until you beat them, they're the best in the division. I expect they will go at least 2-2 with 3 home games in September. Even with rust, Brady should be able to beat the lowly Browns. I expect they will end up with 11 or 12 wins and I don't see anyone challenging that this year.

 

Sorry to be a downer, but Bills have a lot to prove with a tough schedule to boot.

[Gordio]

As I said yesterday, Garrapolo may be better than most give him credit for. Pats defense is very good and will be prepared. A couple of chinks in the armor late last year showed up when Jets won in late December, but like most have said until you beat them, they're the best in the division. I expect they will go at least 2-2 with 3 home games in September. Even with rust, Brady should be able to beat the lowly Browns. I expect they will end up with 11 or 12 wins and I don't see anyone challenging that this year.

 

Sorry to be a downer, but Bills have a lot to prove with a tough schedule to boot.

 

 

Sadly I got to agree. I have been counting on the Patriots demise for 5-6 years now & it never works out. Until someone knocks them off, they are the team to beat in the AFC East.

[CommonCents]

 

 

Sadly I got to agree. I have been counting on the Patriots demise for 5-6 years now & it never works out. Until someone knocks them off, they are the team to beat in the AFC East.

Yep, I don't think the 4 game suspension will end their reign of the east. It is imperative that Jimmy G. has a bad four games though, I don't want that organization getting any confidence at the QB spot outside of Brady.

[thebandit27]

As I said yesterday, Garrapolo may be better than most give him credit for. Pats defense is very good and will be prepared. A couple of chinks in the armor late last year showed up when Jets won in late December, but like most have said until you beat them, they're the best in the division. I expect they will go at least 2-2 with 3 home games in September. Even with rust, Brady should be able to beat the lowly Browns. I expect they will end up with 11 or 12 wins and I don't see anyone challenging that this year.

 

Sorry to be a downer, but Bills have a lot to prove with a tough schedule to boot.

 

I don't know that NE's defense is as good as the numbers say; they are well-coached for sure, but I think they're heavily aided by an offense that can (a) put points on the board and (b) play ball control when necessary.

 

NE tends to get the lead early and force teams to be predictable, because Belichick comes into the game wiling to go nuclear in order to stop what opponents do best.

 

As to records, Buffalo basically needs to start out 3-1 if they want to make the playoffs; that gives them the real possibility of winning 2 of the next 3 (@LA, vs. SF, @Mia) to get to 5-2 before the brutal stretch of the schedule.

 

At that point, you're hoping to win 1 of the next 3 (vs. NE, @Sea on MNF, @Cin coming off a bye) to get to 6-4.

 

Assuming you can pull that off, to make the playoffs means winning 4 of the final 6 (vs. Jax, @Oak, vs. Pit, vs. Cle, vs. Mia, @NYJ).

[Ronin]

Thoughts?

 

The default is that until someone unseats them they will be, the obvious answer as most seem to agree.

 

BUT, their D really isn't that good, particularly since Belicheat's supposed to be some defensive mastermind. It hasn't been highly-ranked in years. It's OK but cannot be relied upon.

 

The O, depends upon to what extent you think Brady matters. Their RBs are among the worst in the league and probably only do what they do because opposing D's and DC's are 99% concerned about Brady and not about their running game.

 

Their WRs also haven't been any great shakes since Moss was on the team, Brady simply makes them all play better than they are. There is Gronk but he's often hurt, nonetheless, the offense revolves around Brady and to a lesser extent Brady-Gronk.

 

Their special teams also aren't great.

 

It will be interesting to see how they play with Garappalo or however you spell his name. I suspect that the above facts will play out.

 

Also, Brady's play clearly slowed down towards the end of last season. Coincidence?

 

Aiding the Pats is the fact that the rest of our division sucks pretty much and at best can usually field an also-ran mediocre/.500-or-so team tops. Besides the Pats, and really since the Marino-Kelly era and even including the Pats besides Brady, our division has been cursed with crap QBs.

 

We'll see on Taylor this year, big season for him, but otherwise.

 

Point being, even with Brady out, the Pats would seem to be at least about as good as any other team in this division. Given the fact that they have Belicheat while we have Ryan who's all talk, the Jets have Bowles in his 2nd season, and the Fins have Gase in his first, there's no reason that even if Brady doesn't play at all this season that they won't at least contend for the division assuming that JG puts up numbers like Tannehill or Taylor. Factor in some unethical practices which few have put beyond Belicheat, and the odds favor them easily.

 

If Brady plays 12 games they'll probably win at least 9 of those. Assuming that the Pats go 1-3 early, which team in the division is going to go 10-6 or better.

 

I don't know that NE's defense is as good as the numbers say; they are well-coached for sure, but I think they're heavily aided by an offense that can (a) put points on the board and (b) play ball control when necessary.

 

NE tends to get the lead early and force teams to be predictable, because Belichick comes into the game wiling to go nuclear in order to stop what opponents do best.

 

As to records, Buffalo basically needs to start out 3-1 if they want to make the playoffs; that gives them the real possibility of winning 2 of the next 3 (@LA, vs. SF, @Mia) to get to 5-2 before the brutal stretch of the schedule.

 

At that point, you're hoping to win 1 of the next 3 (vs. NE, @Sea on MNF, @Cin coming off a bye) to get to 6-4.

 

Assuming you can pull that off, to make the playoffs means winning 4 of the final 6 (vs. Jax, @Oak, vs. Pit, vs. Cle, vs. Mia, @NYJ).

 

Good assessment!

Edited July 28, 2016 by TaskersGhost

[Flip Johnson]

No. They are the favorites but they are vulnerable this year.

 

I live in Boston and most Pats fans think that Jimmy G will go 2-2, but that it won't matter because the team will still end up with the 12+ wins they've had each of the past six years.

 

The more likely scenario is that the division will be contested well into December.

 

The Pats often pick up momentum as the year goes on, but Brady's suspension WILL hurt - not just for the four games, but because for a month he'll be away from the facility, unable to practice with the team, etc. It will take that much longer for the team to get traction. When Brady comes back the team plays 3 of 4 on the road - @Browns, vs. Cinci, @ Pitt, @Bflo. Put it this way - I would be surprised in New England is better than 5-3 at the halfway point. And that means the opportunity is there for the Bills and Jets to make this a real race this year.

 

I also think that the Brady suspension is taking attention away from his mounting age and the physical toll that he has taken, along with Gronkowski, Edelman, Dion Lewis, etc. The champ is not dead until you knock him out, but they are vulnerable this year.

[C.Biscuit97]

As I said yesterday, Garrapolo may be better than most give him credit for. Pats defense is very good and will be prepared. A couple of chinks in the armor late last year showed up when Jets won in late December, but like most have said until you beat them, they're the best in the division. I expect they will go at least 2-2 with 3 home games in September. Even with rust, Brady should be able to beat the lowly Browns. I expect they will end up with 11 or 12 wins and I don't see anyone challenging that this year.

 

Sorry to be a downer, but Bills have a lot to prove with a tough schedule to boot.

I don't think Jimmy G is anything special. But he has 2 awesome TEs to throw, good Wrs, good defense, & good coaching. He will play decent, get talked up, & a dumb team will trade a high pick for him and he will stink as a starter.

 

And yes, it's NE and the red head step children. Probably the biggest gap between the top team in the division and the others in the entire league.

[thebandit27]

I don't think Jimmy G is anything special. But he has 2 awesome TEs to throw, good Wrs, good defense, & good coaching. He will play decent, get talked up, & a dumb team will trade a high pick for him and he will stink as a starter.

 

And yes, it's NE and the red head step children. Probably the biggest gap between the top team in the division and the others in the entire league.

 

They're going to have to simplify things for him though--he's not Brady. Brady can diagnose matchups like nobody's business, and he can get you out of a bad play at the LOS almost as reliably as Peyton Manning.

 

Jimmy won't have that at his disposal. He'll really need to know where he's going to go with the ball pre-snap and make it happen since opposing DCs are going to come after him.

[Kirby Jackson]

Yes

[Ronin]

I don't think Jimmy G is anything special. But he has 2 awesome TEs to throw, good Wrs, good defense, & good coaching. He will play decent, get talked up, & a dumb team will trade a high pick for him and he will stink as a starter.

 

And yes, it's NE and the red head step children. Probably the biggest gap between the top team in the division and the others in the entire league.

 

Who's the 2nd "awesome" TE?

 

His WRs are good, hardly great. RBs average on a good day. Defense above average but hardly great. Good coaching as long as Brady's been in. We'll see this year. Again, short of a season in which the Pats had the easiest schedule in the league w/o Brady, 2008, and went 11-5 and missed the playoffs, Belicheat, even in NE with Bledsoe, in fact particularly then, has not had much success.

 

They don't have the easiest schedule in the league again this year.

 

Your comment about the disparity in the talent/caliber of the other teams, from coaching to rosters to QBs, makes perfect sense.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Who's the 2nd "awesome" TE?

 

His WRs are good, hardly great. RBs average on a good day. Defense above average but hardly great. Good coaching as long as Brady's been in. We'll see this year. Again, short of a season in which the Pats had the easiest schedule in the league w/o Brady, 2008, and went 11-5 and missed the playoffs, Belicheat, even in NE with Bledsoe, in fact particularly then, has not had much success.

 

They don't have the easiest schedule in the league again this year.

 

Your comment about the disparity in the talent/caliber of the other teams, from coaching to rosters to QBs, makes perfect sense.

Martellus Bennett

[Ronin]

The Pats often pick up momentum as the year goes on,

 

They didn't pick up any last season. In fact Brady all but tanked down the stretch and they lost 4 of their last 6 games. Coincidence as Brady ages?

 

Their D was mediocre to poor in four of those games. Opponents were pretty mediocre tops too with Denver featuring Osweiler.

 

Brady's last four games he had 5 TDs, barely 1/game. He averaged 214 ypg.

 

If Garoppolo does that they'll be lucky to win any of their first four games unless opponents tank more.