Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 (edited) Here's my cut-and-paste post regarding schedule strength: No, they didn't. You can't look back in retrospect and use winning percentage because the outcomes are dependent events. We play 6 games against 3 division teams that also play common teams from 2 other divisions. Weaker common opponents inflate wins within our division and stronger common opponents have the opposite effect. Those statistics are almost completely pointless by the end of the year. Actually, they're not even very useful at the start of the year because every team basically plays only 3 divisions each year (i.e. the Jets are not as good as their record, they just took advantage of their schedule and went 6-2 against those two soft divisions). If you want an accurate estimation, take each opponent individually and rank them against the entire NFL pool. Last year we were handed a cupcake schedule. We played the two worst divisions in football, and that's not really even debatable. Those 2 divisions did not produce a single legitimate playoff contender -- every single team was a complete pretender, and we couldn't separate ourselves from that mess. Even worse, a large portion of those teams are comparatively soft and don't play a physical brand of football (IND, PHI, JAC, TEN, DAL). Contrast that to this year where we are playing the two most physical divisions in the game right now (by far), including teams that are expected to go deep in the playoffs. You proved my point. NFC East was supposed to be a monster last year, it wasn't. Injuries play a huge role. Like we face the Jags without Tyrod, Giants without McCoy or Watkins, or we face Dallas without Romo. You cant predict schedule strength. The Jets had HEALTH and the easiest schedule in the AFC. It all works together. Just like the Bills in 2014 had health and only faced Brady 1 time, but everyone says we regressed. Carolina went from 6-10 to 15-1, Baltimore 10-6 to 5-11. Its hard to predict a schedule. But you say we play the 2 most physical divisions which is actually the best matchup for our team. We are built to play physical. The way I like to try is look at the QB's we face. The projected starters are. Week 8-14 is the tough stretch. Flacco - average QB (3-8 last year) Geno Smith - Below average Carson Palmer - Good aging QB, drop off coming some time. Jimmy Garoppolo - No starts Jared Goff - Rookie Blaine Gabbert - Below average Ryan Tannehill - Inconsistent average QB Tom Brady - 39 year old elite QB, drop off coming some time Russell Wilson - Elite QB Andy Dalton - Good QB Blake Bortles - Potentially Good QB, still mistake prone Derek Carr - Potentially Good QB Big Ben - Elite QB Browns - RG3 Inconsistent average QB Ryan Tannehill - Inconsistent average QB Geno Smith - Below average Edited May 8, 2016 by TheTruthHurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Injuries were the key on offense. We lost ALL of our RB's at one point, which is pretty crappy for a run first team. We are now down Chris Hogan and a guy who was too injured or disinterested to play. Woods played injured, Sammy missed time and we had to play EJ. (London still haunts me.) Tyrod staying smart and healthy is my biggest concern, even more than him progressing. RT concerns me, but I don't think it could be worse next year. Someone will step up or another guy will be brought in. We got Kromer for the whole off-season this time so Im looking forward to him coachin them up, especially Miller in his 2nd year. You proved my point. NFC East was supposed to be a monster last year, it wasn't. Injuries play a huge role. Like we face the Jags without Tyrod, Giants without McCoy or Watkins, or we face Dallas without Romo. You cant predict schedule strength. The Jets had HEALTH and the easiest schedule in the AFC. It all works together. Just like the Bills in 2014 had health and only faced Brady 1 time, but everyone says we regressed. Carolina went from 6-10 to 15-1, Baltimore 10-6 to 5-11. Its hard to predict a schedule. But you say we play the 2 most physical divisions which is actually the best matchup for our team. We are built to play physical. The way I like to try is look at the QB's we face. The projected starters are. Week 8-14 is the tough stretch. Flacco - average QB (3-8 last year) Geno Smith - Below average Carson Palmer - Good aging QB, drop off coming some time. Jimmy Garoppolo - No starts Jared Goff - Rookie Blaine Gabbert - Below average Ryan Tannehill - Inconsistent average QB Tom Brady - 39 year old elite QB, drop off coming some time Russell Wilson - Elite QB Andy Dalton - Good QB Blake Bortles - Potentially Good QB, still mistake prone Derek Carr - Potentially Good QB Big Ben - Elite QB Browns - RG3 Inconsistent average QB Ryan Tannehill - Inconsistent average QB Geno Smith - Below average Thats a cool way to look at it. Agree on injuries playing a big part of whos good and whos falling off, lets just hope TT stays healthy all season which im sure they are drilling him with the "slide more" creely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 More on schedule in 2016. Projected playoff teams: NE 1x, no Brady week 4 Arizona Seattle Pittsburgh Cincinnati Past Winners bouncing back: Ravens Rising Teams Oakland Jacksonville 2015 Projected playoff teams: Indy NE 2x Dallas Philly KC Past winners bouncing back: NY Giants Rising teams: Miami 2x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 a lot of grasping at straws and trying to rationalize. we are now without percy harvin, who was our #2 for part of the year. Hogan stepped up and filled the #3 spot when woods went to #2. we had goodwin - we now have goodwin and listenbee. we're worse in 2016 at wr than 2015 at tight end we're the same, and hope clay can make it at running back we're better because we know what we have heading in to the season with karlos, gillislee. we lost dixon, but hope to see something from wilder and j williams. we know mccoy gets banged up. at qb, we're the same. hopeful but comfortable still wanting better. OL, we're still weak but not improved after losing urbik dt - we're weaker because we don't know what rex is going to do and we don't have the right athletes to play what we know he does de - we're the same - hopeful for reasonable production from lawson. lb - weaker. we lost bradham and others s - the same - thin and hopeful. cb - weaker. we lost mckelvin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 (edited) a lot of grasping at straws and trying to rationalize. we are now without percy harvin, who was our #2 for part of the year. Hogan stepped up and filled the #3 spot when woods went to #2. we had goodwin - we now have goodwin and listenbee. we're worse in 2016 at wr than 2015 at tight end we're the same, and hope clay can make it at running back we're better because we know what we have heading in to the season with karlos, gillislee. we lost dixon, but hope to see something from wilder and j williams. we know mccoy gets banged up. at qb, we're the same. hopeful but comfortable still wanting better. OL, we're still weak but not improved after losing urbik dt - we're weaker because we don't know what rex is going to do and we don't have the right athletes to play what we know he does de - we're the same - hopeful for reasonable production from lawson. lb - weaker. we lost bradham and others s - the same - thin and hopeful. cb - weaker. we lost mckelvin. At least you don't get paid to analyze, maybe you do. WR - we had Harvin and Watkins for 3 games together in 2016. Woods was injured all year, as was Hogan. We lost Hogan, however have capable #3 and #4 WRS in Hankerson, Salas, Little, and Boykin. Unknowns in Listenbee and Goodwin. Goodwin can play, health is his issue. OL - still weak? They graded 9th overall. We need one of our young RTs to step up and make the OL one of the best in the NFL. DT - weaker? I'm not really sure you know what you're talking about here. Dareus can play any position. Are you worried about base D 0 tech NT? Don't be. It's hardly used anymore, and when Dareus played it in 2013 he was an all pro. If we get anything from Kyle Williams it's an improvement. Corbin Bryant had a solid year. Washington adds depth. We need 4 solid in our rotation, we have 4. Last year we did not have 4. LB - much more depth. This year we have experienced Zach Brown and Manny Lawson providing depth. Last year it was, I don't even know. AJ Tarpley? Zach Brown also a much better sub package LB than anything we had last year. He can cover. CB - lost experienced depth in McKelvin, gained experienced depth in Corey White and Sterling Moore. Both players graded better than McKelvin last year, on different teams obviously. S - the same? Getting back your secondary leader after he missed 14 games is not the same. Blanton and Colt Anderson added depth. Edited May 8, 2016 by TheTruthHurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Well seeing that they are better then last year on paper, all they need is for Tyrod to progress even the littlest and they will be easily 10 Wins. They could and would have been there last year but Taylor got injured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 (edited) Well seeing that they are better then last year on paper, all they need is for Tyrod to progress even the littlest and they will be easily 10 Wins. They could and would have been there last year but Taylor got injured.I think the offense is going to remain about the same, which is good enough. Less penalties is my hope. They had the 2nd most offensive penalties. They took away 1st downs and points. They had 40 more offensive penalties then the least penalized team. That's unacceptable. Improving penalties probably makes it a top 10 offense statistically. They are close already. Analytically they graded top 10 already. They were the most explosive offense in the NFL, leading the NFL in 20+ yard plays. Fix penalties. Defense is where they need the most improvement. Inconsistent. Confusion. Penalties. Players not buying in. Coaching. All need improvement. I believe Rex can coach defense. I believe he tried something different last year. It's on film. I don't know why, but he didn't run his defense. Injuries didn't help. I think they will be much improved, at least more consistent, less confusion, and the players will buy in. Edited May 8, 2016 by TheTruthHurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Right now, I'd say 8-8. All depends on how many games TT plays. If he starts all 16, this can be a 9 win team, maybe even 10... but every game he misses is a loss. I like Cardale Jones as a developmental #3 QB, but that only works when your #1 stays on the field and your #2 isn't a total POS. Unfortunately, that's the corner in which Whaley has painted himself and this team into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Here's my cut-and-paste post regarding schedule strength: No, they didn't. You can't look back in retrospect and use winning percentage because the outcomes are dependent events. We play 6 games against 3 division teams that also play common teams from 2 other divisions. Weaker common opponents inflate wins within our division and stronger common opponents have the opposite effect. Those statistics are almost completely pointless by the end of the year. Actually, they're not even very useful at the start of the year because every team basically plays only 3 divisions each year (i.e. the Jets are not as good as their record, they just took advantage of their schedule and went 6-2 against those two soft divisions). If you want an accurate estimation, take each opponent individually and rank them against the entire NFL pool. Last year we were handed a cupcake schedule. We played the two worst divisions in football, and that's not really even debatable. Those 2 divisions did not produce a single legitimate playoff contender -- every single team was a complete pretender, and we couldn't separate ourselves from that mess. Even worse, a large portion of those teams are comparatively soft and don't play a physical brand of football (IND, PHI, JAC, TEN, DAL). Contrast that to this year where we are playing the two most physical divisions in the game right now (by far), including teams that are expected to go deep in the playoffs. Perhaps those teams are a better match up for the Bills than the finesse teams that created problems last year. As always, the answer is let's wait and see. I agree the often cited 'strength of schedule' stats is mostly bullsh--. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I'm very comfortable going over 8. TT second year, improved defense, second year with coaching staff, Brady suspension.....lots of reason to think a team that has won 9 and 8 the last 2 years goes over 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 yep, kind of depressing but tired of getting my hopes up. Going to go with the old expect the worst and if it comes out better it will seem much better. Do not worry, you guys rest up! I will proudly carry the flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 At least you don't get paid to analyze, maybe you do. i don't get paid, but i am samrt. WR - we had Harvin and Watkins for 3 games together in 2016. Woods was injured all year, as was Hogan. We lost Hogan, however have capable #3 and #4 WRS in Hankerson, Salas, Little, and Boykin. Unknowns in Listenbee and Goodwin. Goodwin can play, health is his issue. goodwin can play - which is fine, i'd like him available 5-6 snaps a game at the most. hankerson and silas, little, boykin, tj graham, rogers, lewis, palmer, holley, thompson, Coffman, kevin elliot, etc. .... yep. what do they all have in common? not ****... because they're not bona fide and reasonable top 3 WR's no matter how much you want to think. go back every year forever and remember how much we loved caleb holley, how much we were happy to have da'rick. go back to kamar aiken and justin armour, even. pk sam, james hardy, felton huggins. ....... every year.... every year we really think some unknown is going to come out and surprise. that happened once. steve johnson - and that took a watered ass down depth chart with years of development. and aiken and armour went on to succeed with the ravens so they can't count. OL - still weak? They graded 9th overall. We need one of our young RTs to step up and make the OL one of the best in the NFL. a lot of hope you have for our left guard. me, too. but no matter how we grade running and no matter any of that - the truth is our line was only half last year and i am not ready to anoint wood out of the dog house after just barely over a season of better than the previous 2-3 years play. DT - weaker? I'm not really sure you know what you're talking about here. Dareus can play any position. Are you worried about base D 0 tech NT? Don't be. It's hardly used anymore, and when Dareus played it in 2013 he was an all pro. If we get anything from Kyle Williams it's an improvement. Corbin Bryant had a solid year. Washington adds depth. We need 4 solid in our rotation, we have 4. Last year we did not have 4. i'm not worried about our nt. i'm worried that we are weaker because we will still not be putting the proper players in the proper positions. i much rather would have willie henry than a. washington. LB - much more depth. This year we have experienced Zach Brown and Manny Lawson providing depth. Last year it was, I don't even know. AJ Tarpley? Zach Brown also a much better sub package LB than anything we had last year. He can cover. depth is fine, i mean look at chicken ****. that white stuff on top is covered in depth but it's still ****. when manny lawson is oyur best linebacker - and he still is... you're !@#$ed. manny lawson is better than ragland - you know how i know that? 7 years (i think?) of experience and being one of my favorites it is not fun to say it but he has not one reason to be the best linebacker on any nfl team. what makes oyu think lawson won't start? who's going to start at slb over him?!!?!!?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? CB - lost experienced depth in McKelvin, gained experienced depth in Corey White and Sterling Moore. Both players graded better than McKelvin last year, on different teams obviously. can't even argue mckelvin because he is so hated here but he is a very good corner back. again, you go to grading systems. when you realize how crappy those grading systems are - basically a bunch of interns who know nothing baout football scoring every single play abstractly without watching other players - yeah. they're usually not terribly far off but they dont' actually take in to account with actual football play. i'd rather have mckelvin than white and moore. S - the same? Getting back your secondary leader after he missed 14 games is not the same. Blanton and Colt Anderson added depth. it's the same going in to the season as it was going in to the season with aaron williams. however, it should be improved because of anderson and blanton. its not because wiliams has neck issues and we won't know what that means down the line. just more...hope. hope in one hand, dreams in the other. put them together and you still have nothing. we're no better going in to 2016 as we were 2015. every year prior? we upgraded. a lot. this year, no to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 hope in one hand, dreams in the other. put them together and you still have nothing. we're no better going in to 2016 as we were 2015. every year prior? we upgraded. a lot. this year, no to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 2015 incognito felton taylor harvin clay resigned wynn easley hughes (lost spiller, searcy, chandler and spikes) traded: mccoy meh 2014 spikes dixon graham resigned fred jackson aaron williams scott chandler (lost byrd,leonhard,carrington) that's just the last two years not including the draft that brought watkins and others.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 the only concern is teams have more tape of Tyrod and could figure out how to stop him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 the only concern is teams have more tape of Tyrod and could figure out how to stop him Creative gameplanning by Roman and further progression in his game can prevent that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 (edited) a lot of grasping at straws and trying to rationalize. maybe we are now without percy harvin, who was our #2 for part of the year. Hogan stepped up and filled the #3 spot when woods went to #2. we had goodwin - we now have goodwin and listenbee. we're worse in 2016 at wr than 2015. i don't see that still have Watkins Woods added someone or two whether is be Salas Lewis Hankerson plus to potential of Listenbee plus a healthy Glass at tight end we're the same, and hope clay can make it. No Bill are not the same. Clay should healthy Dray is on board Gragg is healthy and O Leary has another year in at running back we're better because we know what we have heading in to the season with karlos, gillislee. we lost dixon, but hope to see something from wilder and j williams. we know mccoy gets banged up. Dixon was nearly useless ( sorry Boobie) and Felton has a chance to redeem his poor blocking from last year. McCoy got banged up we do not know he will be banged up at qb, we're the same. hopeful but comfortable still wanting better. at QB we have a guy coming into his second year as well as the staff. I EXPECT progress OL, we're still weak but not improved after losing urbik. Improved possibly, Cogs got better as the season went. Left side to ctr is locked up and happy.Miler gets a second year and more Kromer time. Hendy too if healthy. Velasco is a better back up and Mills might settle in anyways. Should be slightly improved even with Kraig gone dt - we're weaker because we don't know what rex is going to do and we don't have the right athletes to play what we know he does. If you do not know what he is going to do it is rather hard to form any opinion. Kyle will be back and the Washington add is going to pay dividends early de - we're the same - hopeful for reasonable production from lawson. Lawson will impact early and Often, and he can move around. Now MD will slide out to DE in the 3-4 as might KW and Washington. you are kidding here right ? lb - weaker. we lost bradham and others Bradham ? there was no LBs worth a hoot last year besides Lawson and Brown. Bills added a potential 1st rounder and Zach Brown for the pass game. major upgrades, another year in for Preston who seems excited s - the same - thin and hopeful. Man you are really dreadful today ! added Blanton who is underrated ,restructured Graham, added the hybrid Striker and that other kid. so depending on A Williams depth has been acquired, still have D Williams and Meeks . cb - weaker. we lost mckelvin. i am maybe the only Leodis fan here, so yes. thing is he was moving to safety anyways. Seymour might be a gem. This might be a wash 62. Corey White might have something and Moore is there too There is more to add to this, but i think the team is much stronger with depth and starters both. I'm very comfortable going over 8. TT second year, improved defense, second year with coaching staff, Brady suspension.....lots of reason to think a team that has won 9 and 8 the last 2 years goes over 8. If the Bills can get the coaching details sorted. like communication and penalties!!!! The Bills should should find themselves more opportunities to score. ST really was a weakness again and i hope Crosman can tighten that garbage up. Field position was pretty piss poor for both sides of the ball last year and imho screwed us out of some momentum AND games 2015 incognito felton taylor harvin clay resigned wynn easley hughes (lost spiller, searcy, chandler and spikes) traded: mccoy meh 2014 spikes dixon graham resigned fred jackson aaron williams scott chandler (lost byrd,leonhard,carrington) that's just the last two years not including the draft that brought watkins and others.) Wynn is gone and Easely may not be ready game one. I do wish you would find the positives more often at least we agree about Leodis Love ya 62. good discussion the only concern is teams have more tape of Tyrod and could figure out how to stop him Second year in Roman should be adding some layers. couple new players like Jonathan William and Listenbee might add some new looks. Healthy Shady and a RT who can play steady might offer some more. Bils also struggled at TE last year which surprised me. Clay was a concern for me. Maybe that settles down we start seeing a more fluid offense Edited May 8, 2016 by 3rdand12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 the only concern is teams have more tape of Tyrod and could figure out how to stop him That is the spot that has room to improve the most. From all accounts Roman kept the passing game elementary for TT last year. He executed what was called but as a whole the offense didn't do it consistently enough, far to many 3 and outs. Roman is going to have to show defenses more and hopefully TT takes the next step and is able to execute what is called. I think a lot of us are guilty at looking at the defense and hoping for improvements while ignoring our wild card. The defense is young in some spots and guys will be transitioning to new roles, I expect some good games and some bad-much like last year. The offense has some continuity and a cast of explosive players who could reap the benefits of more effective TT, his floor is serviceable but what is his ceiling? Tyrod is the wildcard heading into the season and he will be difference between a playoff celebration and just another cold January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 the only concern is teams have more tape of Tyrod and could figure out how to stop him Oh, how I wish it was the ONLY concern. Hopefully he can add to his game and create new worries for opposing defenses. I really want him to be the guy! And I sorely miss Jim Kelly....such a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 What is the win total that would get Rex fired this year? I'd say 7 or less and they are going to be in that ballpark. He better hope they get to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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