NFL Over/Under for 2016: Bills at Eight Wins

[hondo in seattle]

 

2016 NFL season over/under win total picks for AFC: Rise of the Raiders

 

Buffalo Bills 8.0 Over (-115) / Under (-115) — Tremendous job of improving in the draft on defense by the Bills. Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland make them better off the bat. No one is talking about the quarterback situation though — if Tyrod Taylor isn't happy and won't play for a low amount of money, they could be stuck with EJ Manuel. Taylor is going to play, but him unhappy is bad news. Cardale Jones starting in the NFL right now? Worse news. Sammy Watkins is a stud, but who is playing next to him? This defense gets way better, but the offense gets way worse in a surprisingly down year.

 

VERDICT: UNDER

 

2016 NFL season over/under win total picks for NFC: Bury the Eagles

 

 

 

I'm not super optimistic about this season but this commentary is just plain uniformed. Unless TT is injured, he's going to play and he's going to perform fine. It's a contract year and as a second-year starter, he still has a lot to prove. Besides, TT seems like a high-character guy who's not going to let his teammates down. And why bring Cardale into the picture when he's our third string project? He's irrelevant in 2016. And why would the offense get "way worse" in Roman's second year with slightly more talent (and a more experienced QB) than he had to work with last season? What a bunch of nonsense.

[iinii]

They should be 9 to 10. Offense was better than expected and defense should be a significant improvement. Plus the schedule doesn't seem too daunting.

playing the NFC West and the AFC North is less daunting than the NFC East and the AFC South last year?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

I'm not super optimistic about this season but this commentary is just plain uniformed. Unless TT is injured, he's going to play and he's going to perform fine. It's a contract year and as a second-year starter, he still has a lot to prove. Besides, TT seems like a high-character guy who's not going to let his teammates down. And why bring Cardale into the picture when he's our third string project? He's irrelevant in 2016. And why would the offense get "way worse" in Roman's second year with slightly more talent (and a more experienced QB) than he had to work with last season? What a bunch of nonsense.

I'm wondering why fans aren't super optimistic about this season. It's the best the Bills have been roster wise in over a decade. Strangest thing to me this offseason.

[Marty McFly]

I'm wondering why fans aren't super optimistic about this season. It's the best the Bills have been roster wise in over a decade. Strangest thing to me this offseason.

Its the Rex effect. We had a good roster last season and Rex couldnt put it together so fans are cautious. I dont blame them but im chillin with the koolaid im drinkin. Go Bills.

 

And for the record if we stay healthy for the most part Ill put us at anywhere between 8-8 and 10-6.

*if we get nailed by injuries again 7-9 or 8-8.

Edited May 8, 2016 by Marty McFly

[Uffalo Ills]

That's the dumbest !@#$ing logic I've ever read? We are going to be under 8 wins because TT is going to be in a bad mood?

I post dumb things all the time, can I get paid for it too?

Yup. If anything, he's got a chip on his shoulder now. He's not a PMSing girl, he's a football player, and at very least a businessman. He knows he has to play well to get paid well.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

bro that makes no sense tho, Henderson was replaced by Mills almost mid-season last year due to INjury and Miller played most of his rookie season with a high ankle sprain which is a big deal for offensive line men. We didnt replace Harvin but, he only played in 5 games so thats a wash. Also Woods played the WHOLE SEASON with a serious groin injury. Thats crazy for WR when you need to make cuts on a dime to get off your routes. Adding Listenbee gives the defense a burner to worry about while they double team Watkins along with the other mediocre WRs we got in FA too. The only talent we didnt replace was Ubrik so I agree with you there, just remember this season they have Kromer witout suspension to coach them up and everyones in the same system for the 2nd year with no QB controversy. Miller 2nd season, TT 2nd 'starter' season, healthy WR core, OLine Coach not suspended, 2nd G-Ro year, and a really good Rook RB. Aside from Ubrik, I dont see how we got worse on offense, all things considered it seems like a wash at worst.

 

Listenbee is just another burner which has failed here since the draught and it's not going to work now. So we basically have one top WR and then a bunch of guys. Our RT situation is horrible don't care who they put in there, gurantee we draft one next yr (or FA)

I'm wondering why fans aren't super optimistic about this season. It's the best the Bills have been roster wise in over a decade. Strangest thing to me this offseason.

 

every yr we say this and we still are average, until we actually do something then this sentiment is to be expected.

[GunnerBill]

Feels like 8-8 again to me.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Feels like 8-8 again to me.

 

yep, kind of depressing but tired of getting my hopes up. Going to go with the old expect the worst and if it comes out better it will seem much better.

[Marty McFly]

 

Listenbee is just another burner which has failed here since the draught and it's not going to work now. So we basically have one top WR and then a bunch of guys. Our RT situation is horrible don't care who they put in there, gurantee we draft one next yr (or FA)

 

RT situation is baddd Im surprised they didnt swing on one this year...but Listenbee is different from Glass Goodwin, besides the speed he also put up more #s on the bench then any of the rookies in his class, have you seen his highlights? they look a lot better then the rest of the laundry list, he actually fights for the ball in the air. He needs work on the route tree and getting separation but he seems to have more potential then Goodwin. If He makes a few good long bomb catches in the 1st few games and hell have made enough of an imprint to swing the safetys to his side freeing up Sammy on the opposite side and Clay on the seam. He doesnt have to be jerry rice, just has to be a decoy with decent hands.

[ALF]

A healthy team , less penalties , less complex D with plays and substitutions in on time , D players more suited to Rex D

 

TT in 2nd year as starter

 

They would have to win more then 8 games IMO

[boyst]

A healthy team , less penalties , less complex D with plays and substitutions in on time , D players more suited to Rex D

 

TT in 2nd year as starter

 

They would have to win more then 8 games IMO

why?

 

we have less talent on the team now than we did in 2015. we are weak at linebacker and play teams that excel in quick movements, ball control offenses that will exploit us.

[Chandler#81]

playing the NFC West and the AFC North is less daunting than the NFC East and the AFC South last year?

1st, that's not what the poster stated. 2nd, and to your point, would you prefer the NFC Central and AFC West?

 

The schedule doesn't seem that daunting.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Its the Rex effect. We had a good roster last season and Rex couldnt put it together so fans are cautious. I dont blame them but im chillin with the koolaid im drinkin. Go Bills.

 

And for the record if we stay healthy for the most part Ill put us at anywhere between 8-8 and 10-6.

*if we get nailed by injuries again 7-9 or 8-8.

Its weird. With all that went wrong last year our starting QB was 8-6 with a tough schedule. People act like they went 4-12.

[Hatszel]

The problem I see with going better than 8-8 is the schedule. Much more difficult than last year. Both Offense and Defense should be better than last year as the learning curve has shortened better knowledge in the the systems. . I see a lot of very close games and if Rex's D does not get better our head coach in waiting is Roman so we can move forward in a more uniform way than in the past. I think the only way we make the playoffs is to win the division. As you all know that will be a daunting task. Wins out of the division will be tough I see us as 5-1 in Division this year do not see Fins and Jets not improved enough to beat us and this is the year we get one from the cheatriots.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

playing the NFC West and the AFC North is less daunting than the NFC East and the AFC South last year?

We had the 4th toughest strength of schedule in the AFC. You dont know schedule strength until the end of the year.

The problem I see with going better than 8-8 is the schedule. Much more difficult than last year. Both Offense and Defense should be better than last year as the learning curve has shortened better knowledge in the the systems. . I see a lot of very close games and if Rex's D does not get better our head coach in waiting is Roman so we can move forward in a more uniform way than in the past. I think the only way we make the playoffs is to win the division. As you all know that will be a daunting task. Wins out of the division will be tough I see us as 5-1 in Division this year do not see Fins and Jets not improved enough to beat us and this is the year we get one from the cheatriots.

You can tell the future? How do you know the schedule is tough. Even if we projected it out it looks easier this year. Tom Brady 1 time? Sign me up.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

RT is a HUGE problem, I would have drafted one in the second or third.

Why? It wasn't really that big of a problem last year.

[Big Turk]

That's the dumbest !@#$ing logic I've ever read? We are going to be under 8 wins because TT is going to be in a bad mood?

 

I post dumb things all the time, can I get paid for it too?

That's ridiculous...first because Tyrod doesn't seem like the type of person that even worries about that type of thing from all the reports about him and his personality...he is very businesslike in his approach to things.

 

Second, there is no way in a contract year he is not going to show up and try and earn a big contract...whether it's from us or another team...that would be the height of stupidity.

The problem I see with going better than 8-8 is the schedule. Much more difficult than last year. Both Offense and Defense should be better than last year as the learning curve has shortened better knowledge in the the systems. . I see a lot of very close games and if Rex's D does not get better our head coach in waiting is Roman so we can move forward in a more uniform way than in the past. I think the only way we make the playoffs is to win the division. As you all know that will be a daunting task. Wins out of the division will be tough I see us as 5-1 in Division this year do not see Fins and Jets not improved enough to beat us and this is the year we get one from the cheatriots.

Impossible to tell right now what the schedule difficulty is...so much is determined by who is injured when you play that team.

 

Plus teams fall off all the time from one year to the next...no guarantee a good team last year will be good this year.

[QCity]

We had the 4th toughest strength of schedule in the AFC. You dont know schedule strength until the end of the year.

You can tell the future? How do you know the schedule is tough. Even if we projected it out it looks easier this year. Tom Brady 1 time? Sign me up.

 

Here's my cut-and-paste post regarding schedule strength:

 

No, they didn't. You can't look back in retrospect and use winning percentage because the outcomes are dependent events. We play 6 games against 3 division teams that also play common teams from 2 other divisions. Weaker common opponents inflate wins within our division and stronger common opponents have the opposite effect. Those statistics are almost completely pointless by the end of the year. Actually, they're not even very useful at the start of the year because every team basically plays only 3 divisions each year (i.e. the Jets are not as good as their record, they just took advantage of their schedule and went 6-2 against those two soft divisions). If you want an accurate estimation, take each opponent individually and rank them against the entire NFL pool.

Last year we were handed a cupcake schedule. We played the two worst divisions in football, and that's not really even debatable. Those 2 divisions did not produce a single legitimate playoff contender -- every single team was a complete pretender, and we couldn't separate ourselves from that mess. Even worse, a large portion of those teams are comparatively soft and don't play a physical brand of football (IND, PHI, JAC, TEN, DAL). Contrast that to this year where we are playing the two most physical divisions in the game right now (by far), including teams that are expected to go deep in the playoffs.

[hondo in seattle]

I'm wondering why fans aren't super optimistic about this season. It's the best the Bills have been roster wise in over a decade. Strangest thing to me this offseason.

 

It's partly the "Rex Effect," as McFly says. Rex made such a mess of the D last year that many have lost some faith in his abilities as a defensive coach.

 

Let's call the other part, the "Lake Erie Effect." The Bills have a history of disappointing their fans, just as the Browns do.

 

I get the optimism - Rex will run his D this year and has the personnel to do it; Shady will hopefully be healthy this year; TT in is second year will only be better; Sammy is due to breakout; Listenbee will stretch defenses; Ragland is gonna thump people; etc.

 

But after 16 years of disappointed optimism, I can't help but think the cold winds of Lake Erie will blow over this roster as it has over every other roster and give us yet another cold, bleak January at home.

 

8-8 sounds about right.

Edited May 8, 2016 by hondo in seattle

[26CornerBlitz]

 

It's partly the "Rex Effect," as McFly says. Rex made such a mess of the D last year that many have lost some faith in his abilities as a defensive coach.

 

Let's call the other part, the "Lake Erie Effect." The Bills have a history of disappointing their fans, just as the Browns do.

 

I get the optimism - Rex will run his D this year and has the personnel to do it; Shady will hopefully be healthy this year; TT in is second year will only be better; Sammy is due to breakout; Listenbee will stretch defenses; Ragland is gonna thump people; etc.

 

But after 16 years of disappointed optimism, I can't help but think the cold winds of Lake Erie will blow over this roster as it has over every other roster and give us yet another cold, bleak January at home.

 

8-8 sounds about right.

 

BBFS reigns supreme.