BrooklynBills Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Sorry. Be warned. This ended up being a long post. It is safe to say that the Bills offense has not been good for a very long time. In fact, the last time the Bills ranked in the top 10 in Offensive DVOA was the Flutie/Johnson years. The highest they have ranked since that time was 16th in 2011, Chan Bailey's 2nd season as HC. The 2002 Bills(Drew Bledsoe's 1st season at QB) ranked 18th. In contrast, the Bills have actually fielded some great defenses in that time, including the last two seasons in which they ranked 2nd last year and 4th in 2013. They also fielded great defenses from 2003-2004, finishing 7th and 1st, respectively. In fact, the 2004 Bills defense ranks statistically within the top 5 defenses of the last 15 years. ASIDE: DVOA is a very fun stat to examine. It measures overall, offensive, defensive, and ST efficiency over the course of the season and factors out garbage time, fumbles won and lost, and adjusts for strength of opponent. Some fun Bills related stuff you find when looking at it: -The 2004 Bills ranked 3rd overall (1st DEF/ 1st ST/ 21st OFF) behind only NE and PIT. So how did that team not make the playoffs, other than losing that final PIT game(who ranked 1st overall, BTW). Well they had that terrible start, but they also played 5 games against the 3 teams ranked with them in the top 4, 2 against NE, 2 against the Jets, and 1 against PIT, and also the Ravens who finished 8th overall, and went 1-5 in those games. -The late 90s Bills with Flutie/Johnson were a pretty good team ranking 6th overall in both 98 and 99. Even the tumultuous 2000 Bills, ranked 14th in offense and 7th in defense, but a dreadful 31st in ST. Maybe Wade should have just fired Ronnie Jones after all. -Last year's team finished 9th overall, and was mainly due to the Bills have the 2nd ranked D and 4th ranked ST, offense was 26th. (No surprise here). This year, so far the Bills ranked 8th overall(6th O, 10th D, 20th ST) BACK TO TOPIC: Bills defenses have been very good at times, even "elite.". But there offenses have absolutely sucked for more than a decade. Most people attribute this to not finding a franchise QB, which is correct to an extent. But it is very convenient for fans to apologize for the Bills failing to find a QB(they haven't picked 1st overall, other teams got lucky, blah, blah, blah). I'm calling bull **** on that. The Bills team building game plan has flawed and last weeks opponent, the Bengals, are the perfect example. In 2010, the Bills and Bengal were both terrible, finishing 4-12 each. The Bills picked 3rd; Bengal 4th. In examining their drafts since then, the two teams go decidedly different directions. The Bills decide to build up through their defense, spending premium picks on defense; the Bengals shift their focus to the offense. 2011 Draft: Bills first 4 picks are all defense: Dareus, A. Williams, Kelvin Sheppard, Searcy Bengal go 3/4 on offense: AJ Green, Dalton, LB in 3rd, Clint Boling(starting G) 2012 Draft: Bills go 50/50 offense/defense: Gilmore, Glenn, TJ Graham, Bradham Bengals do the same but have more picks do to C. Palmer trade: CB, Kevin Zeitler(starting G), DT, WR Sanu, DT, TE 2013 Draft: Bills go more offensive: Manuel, Woods, Alonso, Goodwin, Duke Williams Bengals: Eifert and Bernard in rounds 1 and 2 2014 Draft: Bills: Watkins, Kujo, Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell Bengal: DB, Jeremy Hill, DL, Russell Bodine(starting C) 2015 Draft: Bills: Darby, Miller in 1st 4 rounds Bengal still investing in offense: T, T, TE Now this obviously doesn't include UFAs and later rounds picks because I view those less as strategic roster construction and more of a BPA type situation, but I step back and look at what both teams have been doing and see one team with a clear plan to build on offense long term which is now coming to a head and another with a plan to invest heavily on defense and to draft offense when you have to. The Bengals now have a great offense, which has seen one of their OCs get a HC job and the next likely in line for one. I don't think Dalton is an elite QB but he is now surrounded by weapons, many of whom are on 1st or 2nd contracts so they are cheaper than buying through FA, and they have played together and grown together over time. They've been hit or miss with a lot of the defenders they've taken but they made sure to grab offensive players with a lot of premium picks. The Bills on the other hand have a lot of premium picks on the defensive side of the ball, and have been overdrafting offense recently because of it. They've spent 2 1sts, a 2nd, 2 3rds, and a 4th on WRs and came away with just 2 players(Woods, Watkins). The Bengals on the other hand came away with most of their offense for the same value of picks: Green and Zeitler(2 1st), Bernard(2nd), Boling and Sanu(2 3rds) and Bodine(4th). Don't get me wrong, I love the guys we have on D as players. I'm a big fan of Watkins as a player. But would I rather have the Bengals offense? Absolutely. I don't think you can objectively look at how this Bills team has been constructed and say we have been smart in terms of how the team has been put together and in how we've spent in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The Bengals also stuck with a head coach who many wanted fired for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The Bengals also stuck with a head coach who many wanted fired for years. And with a QB Bills fans have been calling garbage for years (the fans and Sully would have tarred and feathered Dalton long ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 They still should have fired marvin lewis years ago. He's a lousy coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 64% of green bays roster is their own. That's how you build a team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynBills Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) That's true about Dalton, but you could argue that they are still setup offensively if Dalton needed to be replaced. All I'm saying is that they have invested heavily in offensive talent over the years and have let them grow together, trusting that they can field a good defense without spending so much value ($$ and draft picks) on it. And Marvin Lewis has a large enough resume, with enough good years on it, that he has kept his job. Every time it seems he is on the hot seat, the Bengals end up having a good year. Edited October 23, 2015 by BrooklynBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Good post. They've done a great job in drafting and player development. Not a popular thought around here but another club to watch on that front is the Jets. Idzik was hated but he left them in a pretty good place. And last year under Idzik and this year under Maccagnan they've taken the obvious route and brought in Seahawks offensive lineman, and then Marshall at WR. Interesting contrast with our road less taken approach here in Buffalo. Time will tell which team (or neither? Both?) got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KollegeStudnet Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 One issue that always comes up is that the Bills have NOT had a franchise QB for almost two decades. Alot of patchwork QB's that have held the team together since the Kelly years. Tyrod, I believe can be that guy. The MRI injury is unfortunate, but I've seen him dictate the game better than, EJ, Orton, Fitz, Thigpen, JP, Holcomb, Bledsoe, etc... etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 A few things. Why chose the Bengals as an example of how to do it? Am I missing their SB wins and playoff dominance in the past 2-3 years? Why would the Bills want to immulate them? If you look at a team like Seattle the Bills have actually built their team simularly. As did San Fran before their steep drop off last year. Both of those teams have had more success than Cinci in recent years. Two, given the drafts you've shown I dont see the Bengals having concentrated on O while the Bills concentrated on D other than the 2011 draft. Both drafted high end 1st round WRs and both drafted QBs early. Both drafted multiple OL with their first few picks and the Bills even drafted 3 more WRs in the rounds you mention.. So whats the difference? The Bengals hit on their O players and he Bills havent gotten the production they hoped for. Also, stability. The Bengals have had most of their key cogs in place for years, including coaching. Thats given them a chance to grow together. Its hard to imagine the Bills having that type of chemistry 6 games into a new offensive system with a new QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just want to point out Do you realize that their QB for the past few seasons has been on the hot seat for never being able to win a playoff game, having a weak arm, and not being able to perform when Green was injured? Look....the Bengals are doing great right now.....but they are EXTREMELY healthy right now two. Health is the greatest thing you can have in football. Its a forum....and so of course discussions like this are good....but its still really really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I live in Bengals country. Trust me, they are (SOMEHOW) the model franchise right now. Mike Brown bailed out as GM thanks to his daughter telling him to do so, and they are one solid unit from absolute top to absolute bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricojes Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) The Bengals also stuck with a head coach who many wanted fired for years. Yes, and after 15 years, he might just get his 1st playoff win....But there's a long way to go... Edited October 23, 2015 by ricojes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynBills Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 A few things. Why chose the Bengals as an example of how to do it? Am I missing their SB wins and playoff dominance in the past 2-3 years? Why would the Bills want to immulate them? If you look at a team like Seattle the Bills have actually built their team simularly. As did San Fran before their steep drop off last year. Both of those teams have had more success than Cinci in recent years. Two, given the drafts you've shown I dont see the Bengals having concentrated on O while the Bills concentrated on D other than the 2011 draft. Both drafted high end 1st round WRs and both drafted QBs early. Both drafted multiple OL with their first few picks and the Bills even drafted 3 more WRs in the rounds you mention.. So whats the difference? The Bengals hit on their O players and he Bills havent gotten the production they hoped for. Also, stability. The Bengals have had most of their key cogs in place for years, including coaching. Thats given them a chance to grow together. Its hard to imagine the Bills having that type of chemistry 6 games into a new offensive system with a new QB. I choose the Bengals because we just played them and I was reminded of the fact that Bills and Bengals both picked in the top 5 a few years ago. Also, I was hearing a lot about how we don't have a franchise QB and that if we lost more games that year we could have had Cam Newton. That's true but I think that is cop out for people to apologize for our ineptitude on offense. Also, they've picked behind us in every draft so it's very clear to use them as an example of how they spent their draft picks and we didn't. Also, many people on this board in 2011 were clamoring for the Bills draft AJ Green, and even Andy Dalton. They are a nice parallel. And they absolutely do not have a franchise QB and have an offense that is humming right now and that is setup for future success. I think the Seahawks and 49ers are a good a comparison to where we are right now as opposed to 5 years ago. This is not a Bills are doomed post. I don't think that. I just think we've spent unwisely in the draft the last few years and were reactionary in terms of building our offense. We took a QB when we absolutely had to. We went up to get Watkins because we needed a playmaker. But we overdrafted those players. We've spent a lot of draft picks on offensive need in recent years when it would probably have been wiser to spend our premium draft picks earlier on (4 top 10 picks in 1st and 2nd round) on offense and let the defensive talent come to us later. It is also clear that we've had no plan on offense for a long time. I hope that changes. Yes, and after 15 years, he might just get his 1st playoff win....But there's a long way to go... He's tied with all Bills HCs since Levy then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 (edited) Less than half...somewhere in the 40% range the Bills roster is home grown. That is failure of Doug Whaley as assistant (coming up with the draft board each year) and currently as GM. Edited October 23, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynBills Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Less than half...somewhere in the 40% range the Bills roster is home grown. That is failure of Doug Whaley as assistant (coming up with the draft board each year) and currently as GM. I don't think he's done an amazing job, but some of that can be attributed coaching changes and scheme changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Less than half...somewhere in the 40% range the Bills roster is home grown. That is failure of Doug Whaley as assistant (coming up with the draft board each year) and currently as GM. You are fricken delusional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Not so sure the Bengals are a good model. They haven't won a playoff game since 1991 I think it is. Longer than us. They have made the playoffs the last 5 years though which I can't scoff at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 You are fricken delusional Actually I am the opposite of delusional. A fricken realist. Not so sure the Bengals are a good model. They haven't won a playoff game since 1991 I think it is. Longer than us. They have made the playoffs the last 5 years though which I can't scoff at. The Green Bay Packers are the franchise model on how to build a team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The Green Bay Packers are the franchise model on how to build a team. Part one of building a franchise team: Find a HoF QB late in the first round to sit behind your current HoF QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 (edited) The Bengals have done 3 main things to get to this point 1. stability with coaches/systems when possible (Gruden and Zimmer left for HC positions but they stayed course with the HC) 2. Identified a QB and exercised patience in his development 3. Hit on draft picks (especially in the mid-rounds like Geno Atkins and Marvin Jones) Edited October 24, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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